1、 Price trend

The cost surface collapsed, and the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline this week. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers at the beginning of the week was 7100 yuan / ton, while the weekend price of cyclohexanone was 6300 yuan / ton, down 11.27% in the week, 14.67% month on month, 40.57% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the market of cyclohexanone continued to decline. In terms of price, the mainstream factory in Shandong Province delivered 6250-6300 yuan / ton in cash, down about 500 yuan / ton from last week. The main quotation in Shandong is 6400-6500 yuan / ton, the main quotation in East China is 6700-6800 yuan / ton, and the main quotation in South China is 6800-6900 yuan / ton. All in cash. Affected by overseas health events, the prevention and control of city closures in many countries led to a sharp decline in oil demand and a wide decline in crude oil and pure benzene market. On Wednesday (March 18), Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene was reduced by 500 yuan / ton, and then by 350 yuan / ton to 3700 yuan / ton on Thursday (March 19). The cost side collapsed, the market panic increased, and the enthusiasm for purchasing caprolactam and solvents in the downstream market was not good, and the company was self reliant Ketone shipments are blocked, inventory pressure increases, and supply and demand are unbalanced.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: in the week, the market of pure benzene in Shandong fell, with the main stream of 3600-3800 yuan / ton. Market economy is weak, crude oil plummeted, driving the sharp decline of pure benzene US gold market, and market pessimism spreads. Oil prices plummeted. Due to the “floor price” policy, the company has a large profit margin, and the construction load has been increased. In addition, Changyi and Yatong Petrochemical have been restarted, and Huaxing, Zhenghe and petrochemical are expected to restart. The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, so the industry is more cautious to wait and see the future. Shandong downstream enterprises just need to take the goods, with strong pressure on price, poor delivery of refining, and falling transaction price. At present, the price of pure benzene has fallen to the historical low since 2009, but due to the large number of subsequent ships, and it is expected that the production of pure benzene will increase with the increase of refinery load, and the overall supply of pure benzene is sufficient. Downstream users are not eager to purchase, and the industry still holds bearish expectations for the future.

Caprolactam: at present, the market is mainly affected by the peripheral negative effects. Russia’s crude oil plans to increase crude oil production and compete at low prices. Combined with the outbreak of foreign epidemics, demand expectations are reduced. The global market panic index soars, and commodity and stock indexes plummet. WTI crude oil fell by 51% in recent two weeks, and the price of pure benzene dropped by 29% from 5200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3700 yuan / ton at present. Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene has been lowered twice in a row, from 500 yuan / ton to 4050 yuan / ton on Wednesday (March 18), and 350 yuan / ton to 3700 yuan / ton on Thursday (March 19). With the collapse of caprolactam cost and the market panic, the pessimism in the market continued to increase, the downstream buying became weaker, and the price of caprolactam continued to fall deeply.

Adipic acid: at the beginning of this week, the adipic acid market achieved a little effect in exchange of price and volume, but the short hits such as raw materials and news came one after another, the market entered the passive waiting again, and adjusted the pace to find the bottom again. Up to now, the negotiation has been delivered by acceptance of 7100-7500 yuan / ton. The middle end of multiple sources of goods has been negotiated on the low side, and the firm offer is weak, so we will continue to pay attention to it. The weekly average price of East China market was 7479 yuan / ton, down 2.87% month on month, down 12.3% year on year.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of cost, it is difficult to improve the overseas epidemic in a short time. If OPEC does not return to the production reduction negotiations, it is expected that the international oil price will still run at a low level next week, and the cost will collapse. From the perspective of supply and demand, market panic will intensify, and it is expected that the short-term terminal demand will not increase significantly, the downstream procurement demand will still be low, the inventory pressure will increase, and many negative factors surround the business community Ketone analysts expect that the short-term market weakness of cyclohexanone is hard to change, and continues to decline.