According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market saw a significant upward trend in July. As of July 30th, the spot rubber market in China was around 15070 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.67% from 13996 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
At the beginning of the month, downstream demand was weak, and there was sufficient supply of natural rubber raw materials both domestically and internationally, resulting in a narrow consolidation of the natural rubber market. Starting from mid month, on the one hand, domestic production areas have entered a period of reduced production and cutting, and on the other hand, the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has intensified, jointly driving up the price of natural rubber significantly; At the end of the month, the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia cooled down, and the natural rubber raw material market slightly fell. As of July 30th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 14900~15300 yuan/ton.
The price of natural rubber raw materials fell sharply in July. As of July 30th, the price of Thai glue was 55.00 baht/kg, a decrease of 1.79% compared to 56.00 baht/kg at the end of June. Currently, domestic production areas are entering a period of reduced production and cutting, while overseas main production areas are still in the peak season for rubber production. Coupled with the cooling of geopolitical conflicts in Southeast Asia, expectations for the price of natural rubber raw materials are expected to decrease in the short term.
The natural rubber inventory continued to increase slightly in July, which had a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 640400 tons, an increase of 1.31% from 632100 tons at the end of June.
Downstream tire production slightly increased in July, with domestic tire companies’ semi steel tire production slightly rising from 7.00% at the beginning of the month to around 7.50% at the end of the month; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong has increased from 6.20% to around 6.50% by the end of the month. Mainly for natural rubber rigid support..
Market forecast: When domestic and international raw material prices stabilize at high levels and are expected to decline, downstream tires will support the demand for natural rubber, and Tianjin Rubber Port inventory will remain high; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will fluctuate at a high level in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market first fell and then rose in July, with an overall decline. From July 1st to 29th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 15500 yuan/ton to 15483 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 0.11% and a year-on-year price drop of 12.11%.
In early July, except for the maintenance of Wanhua Fujian plant, the northern large factory reduced its load and operated smoothly, while other plants operated steadily and the supply of goods was stable. Downstream demand is sluggish, with small orders being the main focus, leading to a lack of confidence among industry players and a continuous decline in aggregated MDI.
In mid to late July, after the continuous decline of aggregated MDI, the supply side tentatively pushed up, and the low price converged. The price rose to around 15500 yuan/ton, making it difficult to transact at high prices. Under the supply-demand game, the aggregated MDI market began to consolidate and operate horizontally.
Supply side, Shanghai installation maintenance completed. Restart gradually. The 80000 ton/year MDI plant in Dongcao Rui’an will begin maintenance on July 23rd and is expected to last for about 35 days. Hungary’s 400000 tons/year MDI will be gradually shut down for maintenance starting from July 23rd, with an expected maintenance period of about 30 days.
On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuated within a range in July, with overall prices slightly rising compared to the beginning of the month. The average price at the beginning of the month is 5942 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month is 5988 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.75%. Raw material aniline: The aniline market fluctuated and fell in July. On July 1st, the market price of aniline was 7900 yuan/ton, and on July 29th it was 7375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.65% during the month.
On the demand side, downstream urgent procurement, entering the market at low prices. There are few inquiries and insufficient support from the demand side.
Market forecast: As the end of the month approaches, the market atmosphere will become weaker, intermediaries’ willingness to ship is weak, and the supply side’s willingness to raise prices will increase. We are waiting for the latest price guidance from major manufacturers, and it is expected that the aggregated MDI market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, caustic soda has been running steadily this week. On July 28th, the average market price in Shandong was 861 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.69% compared to last year. On July 27th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 771 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 44.93% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 28.93% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda is operating steadily. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 790-880 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 870-930 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 2700-2800 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. From the perspective of Shandong region, there is not much fluctuation in supply and demand, and most enterprises are still executing preliminary orders. The demand side increment is limited, and alumina is mostly purchased on demand, while non aluminum receiving is mainly purchased on demand.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been operating steadily, and the domestic downstream demand has been average. The price of caustic soda is maintaining a stable operation. With the price increase, the downstream market is resistant to the comprehensive expectation that caustic soda will maintain a stable operation in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 21st to 25th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8721 yuan/ton to 8685 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.41% during the period, a month on month drop of 0.16%, and a year-on-year drop of 3.49%. The domestic supply of BDO has increased. However, the main downstream industries have experienced a decline in production, and the amount of raw materials digested continues to decrease. The contradiction between supply and demand has intensified, and traders are holding a selling and shipping mentality, dragging the market center of gravity down continuously.
On the supply side, the industry’s supply continues to increase, but there is no positive support from the supply side. BDO supply and sales are affected by negative factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide market is stable with small fluctuations. The unstable market operation has led to a reduction in supply, but the temporary recovery of demand has accelerated the consumption of waiting vehicles in the market. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market has rebounded, and as of 10:00 am on July 25th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2500 yuan/ton. The fluctuation and consolidation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol have a mixed impact on the cost of BDO.
On the demand side, the downstream PTMEG, GBL-NMP, PBAT industries have seen a decrease in load, while PBT, TPU and other industries have seen an increase in production. However, the overall production on the demand side has declined, leading to a continued reduction in raw material digestion and exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand structure in the industry. In addition, under the traditional off-season effect, terminal demand is light, and under the pressure of supply and demand, some downstream industries such as THF, PBT, GBL-NMP, and spandex have seen a decline in market prices, resulting in a compression of profit margins and severe pressure on raw material prices. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
The future forecast shows that supply will still be significantly higher than demand, and the imbalance between supply and demand will intensify. Moreover, downstream industries are experiencing losses, resulting in severe pressure on raw material prices. The market lacks favorable support. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market may continue to weaken.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 24th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1832 yuan/ton, which is 0.41% higher than the reference average price of 1825 yuan/ton on July 17th.
2、 Market analysis
market conditions
This week, the domestic urea market price first rose and then fell. At the beginning of this week, downstream purchasing intentions improved, and the trading atmosphere in the urea market increased. Manufacturers are mainly raising prices, and the domestic urea market prices are rising. Starting from Wednesday, the futures market began to cool down, and with the urea market still dominated by oversupply, urea prices began to decline. As of July 24th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1790-1830 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1790 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1780-1830 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1800 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1780 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
On the supply side, some companies underwent equipment maintenance this week, resulting in a decrease in daily production, but the urea market supply remains abundant. In terms of demand, there has been an improvement in the autumn fertilizer preparation situation. Compound fertilizer manufacturers replenish as needed, increasing demand for raw material procurement.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the domestic urea market has been weak and declining recently. Manufacturers are mainly pushing prices, but market inventory remains high, coupled with poor futures market trends. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic urea price will be weak and mainly operated through consolidation.

The domestic epoxy propane market has seen a slight increase. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of July 23, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7356.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41% compared to July 1.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The market prices of raw materials propylene and liquid chlorine are running steadily, with a moderate impact on the price of epoxy propane. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 23, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6530.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.83% compared to the beginning of this month (6720.75 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The phenomenon of supply contraction has affected the slight increase in epoxy propane prices.
On the demand side, the downstream trading atmosphere of epoxy propane has improved compared to before, and the purchasing enthusiasm of industry players has also been appropriately boosted. Overall, there is some support for the demand in the epoxy propane market, and the market may continue to operate steadily with an upward trend in the later stage.
Market forecast:
An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply of epoxy propane in the market has decreased, the support of raw material prices is limited, and the trading atmosphere in downstream markets is still acceptable. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend in the later stage, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and downstream supply and demand.

This week, the domestic acrylic acid market experienced a significant decline in prices due to multiple negative factors. Affected by the continuous weak demand during the traditional off-season, the market situation has taken a sharp downturn, and prices have been falling all the way. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, as of July 22, the benchmark price of acrylic acid was 7100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93% from 7166.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month.
The core pressure of the current market downturn mainly comes from the expected increase in supply side and the change in market sentiment. Specifically, the production facilities that were previously shut down are gradually resuming operations, and the expected increase in supply in Shandong has gradually become a reality; At the same time, the subsequent new supply in southern China is also about to be released. These factors collectively exacerbate the market’s concerns about oversupply, leading to a significant bearish sentiment in the overall market.
Recently, the operating rate of the acrylic acid industry has shown structural fluctuations. The main reason is that the equipment in Shandong region maintains high load operation, which promotes the increase of the national average comprehensive load; However, the East China region was affected by a power failure at the Pinghu Satellite Chemical Base (with an acrylic acid production capacity of 680000 tons per year), resulting in an unexpected short shutdown and slow recovery of the equipment, leading to a significant decrease in regional load. Despite the coexistence of multiple device startups and shutdowns, the overall operating rate of the industry still recorded a slight increase.
The increase in supply, especially the release of new production capacity in Shandong, and the slowdown in downstream consumption have created a scissors gap, intensifying the pressure of supply-demand imbalance and spreading bearish sentiment in the market. It is worth noting that the oxidation device synchronized with the satellite chemical Pinghu base malfunctioned, unexpectedly causing a shortage of spot supply in the region and partially buffering the downward trend; The decline rate of spot prices in East China has slowed down, and enterprise auction transactions have slightly rebounded. The acid price has temporarily stabilized in the range of 6800-7000 yuan/ton; The fault in East China is a force majeure disturbance, and there is a definite expectation of increased production in Shandong/South China. If a 300000 ton new plant in South China is about to be put into operation, it will continue to suppress the market, and the weak market situation in the medium and long term is difficult to change.
The significant decline in the price of acrylic acid has led to a significant narrowing of the industry’s profit margin, and all previous gains have been reversed. This round of decline has also been transmitted downstream, with the profit of mainstream product butyl acrylate shrinking synchronously. The root cause is the decline in the price of raw material acrylic acid and the weak trend of another raw material n-butanol.
The future market is expected to show a wide range of fluctuations. The driving factors are: the relief of short-term shutdowns in East China on the supply side, the fading of positive news, the increase in production brought by the resumption of production in South China, the downstream purchasing willingness and pace on the demand side, and the market sentiment and trading mentality of traders. The current supply side is bearish for the recovery of East China and the possibility of increased growth in South China, which may exacerbate market bearish sentiment. The risk of price decline still exists. In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor factory price guidance and downstream actual procurement trends.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated and fell this week. From July 14th to July 21st, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 9166 yuan/ton to 9400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.55% during the cycle. The domestic butadiene market has fluctuated upward in this cycle, and port inventories in East China have been running at a low level recently, boosting market sentiment. During the week, mainstream refineries in China generally transacted at a premium, further strengthening market sentiment and causing market prices to continue to rise. The demand side has shown stable performance recently and urgently needs to replenish inventory. Boosted by favorable supply, the butadiene market rose this week.
On the cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at a low level. On the one hand, OPEC+is likely to maintain a significant increase in production in August and September, and the tension in the Middle East has eased compared to before. As a result of this news, the international oil market trend has declined; On the other hand, the market’s concerns about the US tariff negotiations have eased to some extent, and major institutions have a pessimistic view of the demand outlook. The demand side may be difficult to change, and the crude oil market remains weak. As of July 18th, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States is $66.05 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September is $69.28 per barrel.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9400 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton this week.
Demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the butadiene rubber market has been fluctuating downward recently, with slight fluctuations in the Shunding rubber market in East China. Downstream essential procurement is the main focus, market transactions are mainly small orders, and individual offers from spot market merchants have slightly increased. As of July 18th, the mainstream reports for Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 11750-12000 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 11600~11800 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil is weak and volatile, with insufficient guidance for the butadiene market and minimal impact. This week’s trend is still influenced by supply and demand. From the supply side perspective, there have been fewer ship arrivals in the East China region recently, and the market expects a slightly tight supply. From the demand side, the overall downstream demand is still acceptable. Overall, it is expected that the supply side of the butadiene market will be supported by favorable conditions, with a focus on stable, moderate, and strong operations.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within a range this week (7.14-18), with prices rising within the week and then falling back. As the weekend approached, prices basically returned to the level at the beginning of the week. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4731 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.04% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, most PVC manufacturers maintained price stability, with some making slight adjustments within 50 yuan/ton. The main reason is the lack of favorable fundamentals, with crude oil prices fluctuating weakly and the futures market fluctuating repeatedly, making it difficult to maintain a long-term strong pattern. After the PVC price rose at the beginning of the week, it stopped rising and stabilized, with a weak price and a slight downward shift in the overall range. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market has shown loose supply and demand, and most manufacturers are operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, dealers’ offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4700-4850 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the performance of the calcium carbide market was sluggish this week, and the price did not continue to decline this week. The price has stabilized, and according to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the fluctuation this week was 0. But there has still been a nearly 1% decline since July. The price is still relatively low, with limited support for PVC.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the PVC spot market is average, mainly due to insufficient downstream operating rates and average demand. The supply-demand pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and it is expected that PVC prices will continue to maintain a range adjustment pattern next week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 7th to 11th, MTBE prices first rose from 4957 yuan/ton and then fell to 4965 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.15% during the period, a month on month decrease of 0.60%, and a year-on-year decrease of 26.03%. The domestic MTBE market is weakly consolidating, with prices operating in a low range. The market experienced a significant decline in the early part of the week, mainly due to the increase in resource supply and the weak trend of crude oil, with manufacturers offering discounts for shipments. At present, the operating profit of the equipment is relatively high, the resource supply is abundant, and the substantial positive demand is limited. However, the domestic MTBE market maintains a weak operating trend.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the increased instability in the Middle East caused by the Houthi armed attack on Red Sea ships. In addition, market concerns about US tariffs have weakened, and the traditional peak consumption season in the United States is still ongoing, providing support for oil prices. As of July 10th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the September contract was $68.64 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, international oil prices may fall, and the expected retail price limit for refined oil products in this round will be lowered. Therefore, the news will have a certain negative impact on the oil market. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: Resource supply will further increase. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on July 10th, the Asian MTBE market closed at $8.53/ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $663.79-665.79/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $18.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $898.49-898.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $10.80 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $715.19-715.55 per ton (201.94-202.04 cents per gallon).
Future forecast: Currently, raw material prices are operating at a high level, and cost pressure remains significant. The supply of resources will further increase. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market situation may continue to be weak.