Recently (9.23-9.29), the domestic EVA market has seen a slight upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.18% from 11266 yuan/ton on September 23rd. On the one hand, downstream demand for EVA continues to support, with high raw material prices running, supporting EVA prices to remain high; On the other hand, the overall production of EVA equipment in China remains high, and the overall growth of the EVA market is limited.
Recently (9.23~9.29), EVA production has slightly increased to around 8.7%, indicating that supply pressure in the EVA market still exists. During the cycle, the price of raw material ethylene decreased while the price of vinyl acetate increased, and the cost continued to be supported by EVA. As of September 29th, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 6950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42% from 7050 yuan/ton on September 23rd; As of September 23, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 5550 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.83% compared to 5450 on September 23.
Recently, the demand for photovoltaic EVA has continued to be strongly supported, coupled with the foam end maintaining a strong demand follow-up. The demand for EVA has been well supported in the near future, but as the long holiday approaches and holders are in a safe state of mind, their willingness to ship has increased, and merchant offers have slightly adjusted, slowing down the market’s upward trend.
Market forecast: Overall, the high raw material prices of EVA will be supported by costs. In October, there will be less maintenance of EVA equipment in China, and the supply may remain sufficient. The downstream photovoltaic and foam industries are in urgent need of support. It is expected that the EVA spot market will consolidate at a high level in the later period.

The nitrile rubber market slightly declined in September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 28th, the price was 16600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.30% from 16650 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
In September, the cost support for nitrile rubber was weak, and the increase in nitrile rubber production increased the pressure on the market supply side; In addition, during the traditional peak season downstream, the production of rubber hoses and insulation foam industries has significantly increased, which supports the nitrile rubber market. The comprehensive impact has led to a slight consolidation of the nitrile rubber market in September. As of September 28th, the mainstream market price for Lanhua 3305 in East China is around 16300-16400 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Nandi Nitrile 1052 is around 17500~17600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for nitrile 2665 in Russia is around 15900-16000 yuan/ton.
In September, the domestic nitrile rubber plant started construction and increased, and the Shunze nitrile plant has recently restarted; As of September 28th, the overall production of nitrile rubber in China is around 80%.
In September, the price of raw material butadiene slightly decreased and the price of acrylonitrile slightly increased, resulting in weak cost support for nitrile rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 28th, the price of butadiene was 9023 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15% from 9316 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of September 28th, the price of acrylonitrile was 8033 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.26% from 7933 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
In September, the construction of downstream rubber hoses for nitrile rubber in China increased from 40% at the beginning of the month to a low of around 5.8%, and the construction of rubber insulation and foaming increased from 3.2% at the beginning of the month to around 4.9%. The demand for nitrile rubber needs to be supported.
Market forecast: Business Society’s nitrile analyst believes that the cost support for nitrile rubber is currently weak; Downstream production has increased but remains at a low level, providing essential support for nitrile rubber; The supply of nitrile rubber has increased compared to the previous period, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later period.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within the range this week (9.22-26), and the price performance was weak. As of Friday, the average P-value of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4635 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.37% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the PVC range fluctuated mainly, with most manufacturers maintaining stable quotes and some making slight adjustments within 50 yuan/ton. Specific reasons: Firstly, there is a lack of favorable fundamentals, with weak sustainability of crude oil and prices hovering at low levels; The futures market has shown relatively weak performance. Affected by this, PVC spot prices are unlikely to have a strong trend, and the overall trading range remains at last week’s price level. In terms of supply and demand, the spot PVC market has shown a loose supply and demand situation, with most manufacturers’ equipment operating stably. Supply is showing a slow growth trend, and supply pressure still exists. Social inventory is in the stage of accumulation. The more important aspect is that downstream demand is underperforming, with weak demand during peak seasons and sluggish export performance. Distributors’ offers are generally weak, downstream inquiries and procurement enthusiasm are not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging price is low, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in East China is mostly around 4710-4780 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, as we enter September, the price of calcium carbide continues to rise. This week, calcium carbide has shown a trend of falling from a high level. The performance of the calcium carbide market is average, and its support for PVC prices in the later stage is limited. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the decline this week is 1.59%.
3、 Future forecast
According to PVC analysts from Shengyi Society, the current performance of the PVC spot market is average, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak situation next week. From three specific perspectives, on the supply side, it is expected that some facilities will resume work next week, and there is an expectation of increased production. On the demand side, there is no sign of improvement in the short-term production of downstream plastic manufacturing in China, and domestic demand is running at a low level; Exports are affected by India’s anti-dumping measures, and the medium and long term also show a bearish trend. On the cost side, the price range of calcium carbide is running, and it cannot be ruled out that the price will continue to decline. There are negative expectations on the cost side. It is expected that PVC will continue its weak market next week against the backdrop of weak supply and demand and limited cost support.

1、 Price trend
According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of September 25th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 7200 yuan/ton. Currently, the cyclohexane market is mainly stable, but downstream demand in the cyclohexane market is insufficient, and upstream cost support is average. Operators are cautious in their operations.
2、 Market analysis
Market wise: Currently, the cyclohexane market is mainly stable in operation, with limited price fluctuations. The focus of negotiations in the domestic cyclohexane market is to maintain stable operation. The equipment is running normally, with sufficient spot supply and downstream essential procurement as the main focus. The purchasing atmosphere is average, and the positive support from the supply side is not obvious. The market mentality is stable, and the operation is cautious. The wait-and-see attitude still exists, and the overall market operation is cautious.
Upstream: The upstream pure benzene market is currently operating steadily, with some companies raising prices. Qicheng Petrochemical’s pure benzene price has increased by 30 yuan/ton, with an execution of 5950 yuan/ton. Dongying Petrochemical’s pure benzene quotation has increased by 20 yuan/ton today, with an execution of 5950 yuan/ton. Currently, the pure benzene market is generally improving, and it is expected to operate steadily, moderately, and strongly in the short term.
Downstream: The downstream cyclohexanone market is mainly operating in a narrow and strong range. As of September 25th, the cyclohexanone market in South China is operating weakly, with stable spot supply and cautious follow-up of downstream high prices. High price transactions in the market are cold. The cyclohexanone market in East China is operating weakly, with a lack of cost support and poor high price transactions. Market prices are fluctuating and weakening, with 7100 yuan/ton in the East China market and weak cyclohexanone in Shandong market. Pure benzene is operating weakly, with average cost support. Downstream purchases are made according to demand, and the market is consolidating weakly.
3、 Future forecast
The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current demand for cyclohexane in the market is average, and overall market shipments are slow. There is still pressure on inventory.

This week, the acrylic acid market is indeed showing a supply-demand game and a strong upward trend in prices. The recent price increase is mainly supported by tight supply and strong pre holiday demand stocking.
As of September 24th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.13% compared to the beginning of this month (6250.00 yuan/ton), showing a significant increase compared to the beginning of the month. Specifically, there are price differences among products of different brands and specifications. The mainstream price range for regular acid is between 5700 and 6800 yuan/ton, which reflects the tight supply of high-quality goods and the strong price. The fundamental driving force behind this price trend lies in the marginal changes in supply and demand.
Supply side:
There are some signals of marginal tightening on the supply side. On the one hand, recent major production facilities have experienced unexpected shutdowns for maintenance, such as CNOOC’s acrylic acid oxidation unit, which has directly led to a decrease in spot supply in Shandong and other places. On the other hand, the export order situation is relatively smooth, diverting some domestic sources of goods. These factors have reduced the sales pressure on the holders and given them the confidence to raise prices.
Demand side:
In terms of demand, as the holiday approaches, downstream factories are conducting rigid pre holiday stocking to ensure production, providing tangible support for market prices. However, it should be noted that as stocking approaches its end, the upward momentum of the market may temporarily weaken and enter a short-term consolidation period.
Cost side:
Acrylic is the most essential raw material for producing acrylic acid. Recently, the propylene market itself has also been in a tight supply-demand balance, with prices stabilizing at high levels. This provides solid cost support for the price of acrylic acid. As of September 24th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6640.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% compared to the beginning of this month (6663.25 yuan/ton).
Overall, the acrylic acid market has shown strong price performance driven by unexpected supply tightening and pre holiday stocking demand. However, downstream factories are generally facing cost pressures and mainly adopt a strategy of buying on dips for essential needs, which may limit the room for future price increases.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 22, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1655 yuan/ton, which is 0.60% lower than the reference average price of 1665 yuan/ton on September 15.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
This week, the domestic urea market prices continued to weaken and decline. This week, the urea futures market price continued to decline, and the spot market followed the fluctuations of the futures market. As of September 22, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1610-1670 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1630-1660 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1620-1680 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1660 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1670 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic urea market is experiencing oversupply. In terms of supply, some early parking devices have resumed production, resulting in a further increase in daily output and an increase in market supply. In terms of demand, the current industrial and agricultural demand is relatively weak, downstream procurement is cautious, and the market trading atmosphere is not good.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the domestic urea market has continued to weaken and decline recently. At present, the urea market has sufficient supply but poor market demand. Approaching the National Day holiday, urea manufacturers are mainly reducing prices to attract orders. It is expected that domestic urea prices will continue to weaken and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on September 19th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was referenced at 7000 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1st, the price decreased by 87 yuan/ton, and compared with August 1st (cyclohexanone price reference 7262 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 262 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.61%.
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early September, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province was mainly weak and consolidating, with relatively calm news on the market. Entering this week, the cyclohexanone market has been declining, with the focus of on-site negotiations shifting downwards, with a reduction of 50-100 yuan/ton. As of September 19th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China is around 6900-7000 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall supply side of the cyclohexanone market has increased, and there is some pressure on supply. Factories are actively shipping, and downstream demand continues to be dominated by rigid procurement. The support provided by the demand side to the market is limited, and the transmission performance between cyclohexanone supply and demand is loose.
In terms of cost: Currently, the market for pure benzene on the cost side of cyclohexanone is fluctuating at a high level, and cost pressure still exists. The profit of cyclohexanone is under pressure. On September 18th, the reference price of pure benzene was 6048.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.23% compared to September 1st (5975.33 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is relatively weak, and the mentality of industry players is average. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the consolidation and operation of the domestic cyclohexanone market will dominate, and more attention should be paid to the stocking situation of downstream markets before the holiday, as well as changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market was mainly adjusted within the range this week (9.15-19), and the price did not change much compared to last week. After the market price rose during the week, it slightly fell back. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4680 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.43% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the ex factory prices of PVC manufacturers mostly remained at last week’s price level, with some slight adjustments controlled at 20-50 yuan/ton. Due to the lack of significant improvement in fundamentals, crude oil prices are hovering at mid to low levels, and the futures market is maintaining a range of volatile prices. After the PVC price rose at the beginning of the week, it stopped rising from mid week to the weekend and slightly fell back, with a weak price and a slight upward shift in the overall range. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market has shown loose supply and demand, and most manufacturers are operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, dealers’ offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4730-4800 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the calcium carbide market has rebounded this week, and prices have risen this week. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the increase this week is 4.0%. As the weekend approaches, calcium carbide prices are rising, and due to the lag in transmission, it may provide support for PVC costs in the later stage.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the PVC spot market is lukewarm, mainly due to insufficient downstream operating rates, average demand, and difficulty in improving the supply-demand pattern in the short term. It is expected that PVC prices will continue to maintain a range adjustment pattern next week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 11th to 18th, MTBE prices rose from 5105 yuan/ton to 5177 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.42% during the period, a month on month increase of 2.32%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.33%. The domestic MTBE market has fluctuated and risen. The demand side of the terminal has rebounded, and the activity of MTBE transactions has significantly increased. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream terminal enterprises are gradually carrying out moderate stocking, and the overall trading atmosphere in the MTBE market is good.
In terms of cost and crude oil: the main positive factors for the rise of international oil prices are: the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused the market to worry about potential supply risks, and the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to support oil prices. As of September 17th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the December contract was $67.46 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, international crude oil futures have fluctuated upwards, while gasoline and diesel prices have fluctuated downwards. Refinery shipments in the region are mainly driven by volume, but there is insufficient improvement in terminal demand. Social units have slow inventory digestion, and intermediate traders have few large order operations. Gas station merchants mainly have a small amount of fast-moving consumer goods, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. The MTBE demand side is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side: Resource supply may increase slightly. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on September 17th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $3.66/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $681.52-683.52/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $10.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $929.24-929.74/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $9.99/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $825.59-825.94/ton (233.11-233.21 cents/gallon).
The future forecast of raw material prices may be biased towards consolidation, and cost pressure still exists. Some large manufacturers still export to ports, and the overall fluctuation is not significant. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by sporadic fluctuations.

Price trend: (9.9-9.17)
The supply of dichloromethane in the Shandong market is loose but demand is weak. Market transactions are cautious and mainly wait-and-see. Enterprises continue to offer discounts and reduce inventory, leading to a continued downward trend and bottoming out of the market. According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 17th, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was 1845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.9% during the period and a year-on-year drop of 33.63%. The price has reached a new low in nine years. At present, the operating rate of the supply side has been reduced, enterprises have lowered their burdens and stabilized prices, exports continue to increase, market supply pressure has eased, and prices have bottomed out and stabilized.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Supply contraction to reduce negative pressure and stabilize prices
The operating rate of the methane chloride plant in the industry has been reduced from a high of 85%, and the Dongying Huatai plant has been reduced to 50% operation. The inventory pressure of enterprises is high, and they have been continuously offering discounts on shipments in the early stage. Currently, they are easing the supply pressure by reducing the burden and increasing their willingness to stabilize prices.
Cost side: large stability with small fluctuations, overall stable cost support
In terms of raw material methanol, the market was supported by the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October”, and the price slightly increased. As of September 17th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2286.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% during the cycle. However, the supply of equipment from mainland China is still increasing, and imports to ports are currently at a high level. Downstream equipment maintenance has weakened demand, and overall inventory continues to rise. Port inventory has reached a historic high, suppressing upward space. The shipment of liquid chlorine is poor, and prices in Shandong have slightly decreased, resulting in stable and weak overall cost support.
Demand side: Weak domestic demand, bright external demand
In terms of domestic demand: the main downstream refrigerant industry is constrained by quotas, with rigid demand but no significant increase; The fields of pharmaceuticals, chemical synthesis, and others have experienced a mild recovery, while industries such as adhesives and coatings have been affected by the downturn in the real estate market and still rely mainly on small orders for essential needs.
In terms of exports, it continues to perform strongly, with increased exports to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other regions. In September, export inquiries and ship arrangements remained active, effectively easing domestic supply pressure.
Market outlook: Short term or slight rebound, with limited rebound amplitude
With the reduction of enterprise maintenance burden and the maintenance of high exports, the marginal improvement of market supply and demand structure, there is a slight room for price exploration. However, due to the limited recovery of domestic demand, weak support on the cost side, and insufficient driving force for a significant increase in the market, it is expected to mainly operate with strong fluctuations.