Affected by the negative fundamentals on Wednesday night, most non-ferrous metals fell, led by tin and aluminum. As of the 28th, the settlement price of Shanghai lead 2112 contract was 15705 yuan / ton, down 1.41%.

Recently, the lead price has continued to rise, the profits of smelters have recovered, and the start-up of renewable lead enterprises has gradually recovered. However, due to the influence of limited power policy in some areas, the resumption of production is slow. After the festival, the overall operating rate of downstream storage enterprises increased, and the operation in some areas affected by the restricted power policy was slightly worse. Today, the market price fell, the market bargain hunting inquiry increased, and the overall inventory is still high. It is expected that the lead price will operate steadily and downward.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (October 27): 11075 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: PVC futures fell by the limit at the end of trading on October 27. The opening price of the main contract 2201 was 9700, and the closing price was 9105, a decrease of 6.95%. The decline in the disk continued to suppress market sentiment. The price in the spot market continued to decline rapidly, with a daily decrease of 5.54%. The market price was as low as around 10000 yuan / ton, and there were even lower ones. Some enterprises still closed their orders and stopped reporting, and the holders continued to sell goods at a profit, However, the market transaction atmosphere is still light.

Forecast: PVC prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 178200 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 185400 yuan / ton

Analysis: the rising trend of lithium carbonate price continues to slow down. At present, there is a large gap in the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers, and the market trading volume is relatively small. Due to the impact of power rationing, some downstream cathode material plants reduce the purchase volume, and the market pricing is in a game state. Subsequently, the demand for lithium iron phosphate will begin to increase, and the impact of supply reduction in Qinghai in winter will also lead to a tight supply situation.

Forecast: with the increasing tension between supply and demand in the market, it is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price may still be in an upward trend.

Trade name: isopropanol

Latest price on October 25: 8183.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on October 25, the focus of domestic isopropanol market was downward. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is poor, the overall transaction is relatively cold, the confidence of the industry is slightly insufficient, the traders remain on the sidelines, there are few downstream enquiries, and the shipment is slow.

Forecast: the price of isopropanol will tilt down slightly in the short term

Trade name: polybutadiene rubber BR9000

Latest price (October 22): 15380 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, as of October 22, the domestic price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 15380 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.39% over the previous day; The ex factory price of the main suppliers of synthetic rubber is stable. At present, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company Daqing and Jinzhou Shunding leave the factory at 14700 yuan / ton, and the Northeast warehouse increases the price. The market offer is gradually higher, and the downstream purchases more on demand.

Future forecast: the energy crisis has not been completely lifted, and the price of butadiene rebounds. On the whole, the price of butadiene rubber will remain high in the short term.

Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 16200 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of caprolactam was stable on October 21, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Today, the market of raw material pure benzene is stabilizing, and the price is 8203-8550 yuan / ton. Styrene rebounded slightly, which has certain support for pure benzene. Caprolactam downstream enterprises purchase on demand and operate cautiously on site. At present, caprolactam consolidation is the main operation under the balance of supply and demand.

Future forecast: the high price of caprolactam will run smoothly in the short term.

On October 20, the rare earth index was 624 points, up 5 points from yesterday, down 37.60% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and up 130.26% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

The trend of domestic rare earth index is rising, the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series is rising, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is rising by 10000 yuan / ton to 632500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is rising by 12500 yuan / ton to 775000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 67000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is rising by 20000 yuan / ton to 660000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal praseodymium is 882500 yuan / ton, The price of neodymium metal increased by 2500 yuan / ton to 802500 yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.74 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.725 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal was 3.535 million yuan / ton. Some prices in the domestic light rare earth market increased. The recent procurement was general, and the price trend of praseodymium neodymium series was the main. In the recent domestic heavy rare earth market, the price of dysprosium series was temporarily stable, and the price trend of terbium series was temporarily stable, Downstream procurement is mainly on demand, and Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will rise slightly in the later stage.

On October 19, the rise of domestic cobalt price slowed down

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price continued to rise on October 19, but the rise slowed down. On October 19, the cobalt price was 403000 yuan / ton, up 0.45% from 401200 yuan / ton on October 18 of the previous trading day; Compared with the price of 381600 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month, the price of cobalt increased by 5.61%. On the 19th, cobalt prices continued to rise, but the rise in cobalt prices slowed down.

Sales of new energy vehicles rose sharply

According to the data of China Automobile Association, in September 2021, China’s domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 353000 and 357000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 14.5% and 11.4%. In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached a record high in a single month, and both broke through the 350000 mark, breaking the historical production and sales record for the third consecutive month. Compared with the same period in 2020, the production and sales volume in this month increased by 216.6% and 148.4% year-on-year. The sales volume of new energy vehicles continued to rise, which was still good for the cobalt market, and the driving force for the rise of cobalt price remained.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that the rise in cobalt prices slowed down on the 19th, and cobalt prices may fall slightly in the future; However, the production and sales of new energy vehicles hit another record, the demand of cobalt market is still high, and the rising power of cobalt market still exists. It is expected that the cobalt market will still rise after a short decline, and the medium and long-term cobalt price will rise slightly.

Domestic cobalt prices continued to rise this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the domestic cobalt market rose sharply in October. After the cobalt price fell slightly on the 13th, the cobalt market rose three times in a row, and the cobalt price finally broke 4. As of October 18, the cobalt price was 401200.00 yuan / ton, up 5.14% from 381600.00 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. In October, the cobalt price finally broke the 400000 yuan / ton mark.

Rising international cobalt prices

According to the LME cobalt price trend chart, the international cobalt price rose continuously this week, the international cobalt price rose sharply for three consecutive trading days, and the international cobalt market rose. MB cobalt price rose slightly this week, but the rise of cobalt price slowed down this week, the support of international cobalt price to domestic cobalt price weakened, the support of domestic cobalt price breaking 4 was insufficient, and the rising power after breaking 4 was insufficient.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that the sharp rise in the international cobalt price this week has stimulated the rise of the domestic cobalt market, but the rise in the international cobalt price has slowed down, and the domestic cobalt price has no momentum to continue to rise. The cobalt price finally broke the 400000 yuan / ton mark, but it is difficult to continue the rise in the domestic cobalt price in the near future. It is expected that the short-term shock of the future market cobalt price will maintain stability, and the rise in the medium and long-term cobalt price remains the same.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from October 8 to October 15, the domestic ethanol market price fell from 6387 yuan / ton to 6550 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 2.54% during the week, a price increase of 1.16% month on month and a price increase of 0.07% year-on-year.

The price of corn raw materials fluctuated downward. Due to the increase of corn raw materials in the corn harvest season, but the decrease of power raw materials such as coal and other negative factors, the ethanol plant still maintained low load operation, and the plant output in Northeast, Henan and East China will not change much. Demand for Baijiu liquor has picked up slightly. After the festival, the downstream chemical plants need to purchase mainly, and demand has been slightly improved. Corn ethanol prices rose due to the trend.

In terms of raw materials, the increase of corn ethanol production cost is mainly due to the constraints of coal and other factors; The production cost of cassava ethanol decreased due to the decline of cassava dry price; There is a shortage of molasses, and the production cost of molasses ethanol factory is still strong. At present, the supply of ethanol production plants in main areas is not high, and the demand in the downstream is mainly just demand.

In terms of downstream products, the domestic ethyl acetate market continued a broad upward trend this week, the factories in Shandong and Jiangsu have not recovered, and the tight market supply situation has been maintained. In addition, the raw material acetic acid rose sharply, and the offer of ethyl acetate continued to rise. During the week, the high-end offer reached 11000 yuan / ton, a new high over the years.

As of October 15, the latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

Region, category, price

Shandong region General level 6250-6300 yuan / ton

Shandong region Superior corn 6800 yuan / ton

Shandong region Corn anhydrous 7200 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 6400-6750 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 6200-6300 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu Superior 6450 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu anhydrous 7100 yuan / ton

Anhui region Cassava general About 6250-6300 yuan / ton

Anhui region anhydrous About 7300-7350 yuan / ton

Sichuan region Corn alcohol About 6200-6250 yuan / ton, including tax

Yunnan region Molasses alcohol 7150-7200 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 7200-7250 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Corn / Cassava 95% alcohol 6800-6900 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Absolute ethanol 7700 yuan / ton

Guangdong region Cassava alcohol About 6750 yuan / ton

Guangdong region 95% ethanol About 6800-6900 yuan / ton

Guangdong region Anhydrous cassava ethanol About 7800-7900 yuan / ton

Jinzhou area, Liaoning Province Corn alcohol general grade 6150-6200 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Region General level 5750-5850 yuan / ton, tax included

Heilongjiang Region Absolute ethanol 6750-6950 yuan / ton

Jilin Region Ordinary alcohol 5900-6000 yuan / ton, tax included

Jilin Region Absolute ethanol 7000-7100 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan region Superior 6300 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan region Absolute ethanol 7150 yuan / ton, tax included

Hebei region General level 6400-6450 yuan / ton

Hebei region anhydrous 7150-7200 yuan / ton

In the short term, the price of raw corn is weak, but the rise of coal price leads to the high production cost of corn ethanol. Downstream demand Baijiu and chemical ethyl acetate or will be slightly improved, business analysts alcohol analysts expect that the domestic ethanol market will be oscillating upward.