1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol fluctuated in February, with prices first falling, then rising, and then falling again. Overall, prices have slightly increased. On February 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6660 yuan/ton, and on February 27th, the average price was 6670 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15% compared to the beginning of the month.

The market price of isopropanol fluctuated in February, with prices first falling, then rising, and then falling again. In the first ten days, just after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream terminal demand recovered slowly, and the atmosphere of on-site actual trading was average, resulting in a decrease in enterprise prices. In the middle of the month, due to the rise in acetone prices and strong cost support, market prices quickly rose. In the latter half of the year, the upstream acetone market mainly experienced a downturn, with weak cost support and relatively light demand in the end market. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and transactions were cautious, resulting in a further decline in market prices. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6500-6600 yuan/ton; Most of the quotations in the isopropanol market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6800-6950 yuan/ton based on market reference prices.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market price increased in February. On February 1st, the average price of acetone was 6097.5 yuan/ton, and on February 27th, the average price was 6492.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.48%. At present, the trading atmosphere in the acetone market is still good, and the mentality of holders is good. It is expected that the acetone market will remain strong in the short term.

In terms of propylene, the domestic propylene market fluctuated and fell in February. On February 1st, the market was average at 6823.25 yuan/ton, and on February 27th, the average price was 6813.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% in price. At present, there is no pressure on propylene inventory, and downstream purchases are made as needed. It is expected that propylene prices will experience slight fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyi Society believes that the isopropanol market price first fell, then rose, and then fell again in February. At present, the confidence of cargo holders is average, and the demand in the terminal market is relatively light, resulting in a decrease in factory prices. However, due to the firm prices of raw materials and the recovery of downstream terminal procurement intentions, transactions are mainly driven by essential needs. It is expected that in the short term, isopropanol will remain cautious and the market will mainly stabilize and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of ethyl acetate in China was 5613.33 yuan/ton on February 25th, a decrease of 0.18% compared to the previous trading day. Cost support has weakened, downstream follow-up is average, supplier mentality is conflicted, and the price of ethyl acetate has been adjusted downward.

Market analysis: Ethyl acetate market is weak and consolidating. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid is relatively stable, with some regions experiencing local price reductions and insufficient cost support; On the demand side, downstream factories purchase on demand, with limited on-site order volume and a relatively weak overall trading atmosphere; Enterprises are actively shipping, and the focus of market transactions has slightly shifted downwards.

In the future, the trend of ethyl acetate raw materials is generally average, with low cost and profit. The supply side and market capacity utilization rate have been raised, and the sales pressure of enterprises has increased. Downstream demand follows up, and market trading is poor. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain weak and stable in the short term. Specific attention should be paid to changes in upstream market conditions and downstream follow-up situations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 17th to February 24th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 12375 yuan/ton to 11587.5 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 6.36% during the period. This week, the butadiene market experienced a wide decline, with increased expectations for equipment restart and supply. The synthetic rubber futures market weakened, and downstream demand was weak, among other negative factors. As a result, the market was under pressure and fell, with holders lowering their quotes and downstream demand not keeping up. As of February 24th, the mainstream delivery price of butadiene in Shandong region is between 11050-11300 yuan/ton, and the self pickup price from the tank in East China region is between 10800-10900 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. As of February 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.40 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $74.43 per barrel. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, and the premium of oil prices has fallen; In addition, the increase in US crude oil inventories has affected investor confidence. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at a low level. On the one hand, the US has imposed tariffs and Trump has requested OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices. In addition, US crude oil inventories remain high, and there are still concerns in the market about crude oil demand, which has suppressed crude oil prices; On the other hand, the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased, and crude oil market prices remain low.

Supply side: Sinopec’s various sales companies have lowered the listed price of butadiene by 700 yuan/ton and implemented 11700 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Recently (2.11-2.24), the market for butadiene rubber has been weak and slightly declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 24th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 14300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.57% from 14830 yuan/ton on the 11th. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly; The production of butadiene rubber remains low, and the pressure on the supply side is relatively small; After the holiday, downstream construction gradually increased, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber. Recently, the supply prices of Shunding rubber suppliers have been gradually lowered, and the quotes from merchants have been weak and declining. As of February 24th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China were 14200-14550 yuan/ton

Market forecast: In terms of the future, the crude oil market trend has been weak recently, with insufficient guidance for the market and weak cost performance. The overall supply has been relatively loose recently, and expectations are weak. In the near future, the demand side will maintain on-demand procurement with a preference for rigid demand. Overall, the market performance is bearish, and it is expected that the market trend will remain weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has slightly increased recently (2.17-2.24). As of February 24th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market is around 17320 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from 17240 yuan/ton in 2017. Raw material prices continue to rise slightly at high levels; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory has slightly decreased; After the holiday, downstream production gradually increased, coupled with strong fluctuations in the Shanghai rubber market, which led to a slight upward trend in the natural rubber spot market.

After the Spring Festival, production areas such as Vietnam and northeastern Thailand entered a period of suspension, and production areas in China are also in a period of suspension, with high raw material prices being consolidated. As of February 24th, the price of Thai glue was 70.00 baht/kg, a slight increase from 66.50 baht/kg on February 17th.

Natural rubber inventory has slightly decreased, but overall it remains at a high level. As of February 16, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 568600 tons, a decrease of 400 tons compared to the previous period.

Supply and demand side: The increase in downstream tire production after the holiday mainly supports the essential demand of the natural rubber market. As of February 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.0%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.7% of the load.

Market forecast: When domestic and foreign raw material prices stabilize at high levels, it will provide some support for natural rubber; With the gradual increase in downstream production after the holiday, there is a certain degree of rigid demand support for natural rubber, coupled with a slight decrease in inventory at Tianjiao Port in the short term; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience strong fluctuations at high levels in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (2.17-2.21), with an average market price of 16250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16083 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.03%.

This week’s market analysis

The magnesium price remained stable in the first half of this week, while the rate of decline accelerated in the second half. The price trend of magnesium market continues to be weak, and multiple unfavorable factors are intertwined, leading to increased pressure on the market. Firstly, there has been no significant boost in downstream demand, coupled with a decline in coal prices, which has put downward pressure on magnesium prices. At the same time, the significant appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has further compressed the export competitiveness of magnesium products. Without positive market news support, the bottom support of the magnesium market is gradually weakening, and magnesium prices have hit a new low in nearly three years, posing more severe challenges to factory operations.

Supply and demand side

This week, the magnesium market trading is still mainly focused on essential purchases. Users are cautious about future market trends and are not in a hurry to replenish inventory, so they are more cautious when placing orders.

The fierce bidding in domestic and international markets has put significant pressure on both upstream and downstream enterprises in the magnesium industry chain, and their survival situation is worrying. The analysis of supply and demand indicates that although the overall supply remains stable, there has been no significant improvement in demand, and the supply-demand pattern is relatively loose. In the short term, the magnesium market may continue to operate under pressure.

However, considering the worsening losses in the production of blue charcoal in the factory, the overall operating situation is difficult, and the cost support effect is gradually emerging, the space for further decline in magnesium prices may be limited. At the same time, essential procurement will also provide certain support for the magnesium market.

comprehensive analysis

It is expected that the magnesium market will show a weak consolidation trend next week, and the market will closely monitor changes in downstream demand as well as the progress of factory shutdown and maintenance.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 20th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1851 yuan/ton, which is 7.11% higher than the reference average price of 1728 yuan/ton on February 14th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have shown a strong upward trend. As of February 20th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1750-1810 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1800 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1770 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1780 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1850 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market has sufficient supply and market demand has increased. In terms of supply, the urea market has remained stable this week with sufficient inventory levels. In terms of demand, the recent peak season for spring plowing has led to an increase in urea demand, an increase in downstream compound fertilizer production rates, and a significant increase in urea market trading volume.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic urea market has been operating strongly recently. At present, there is a decrease in market supply and an increase in demand, but overall inventory is high. Under the continuous rise of urea, the market tends to stabilize, and in some areas, the market is loose. It is expected that the domestic urea market price will remain stable with a moderate decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of February 19th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4300 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF market price has risen slightly, indicating a strong overall market operation.

2、 Market analysis

DMF prices are narrow and strong, with a small European style. Currently, downstream demand for DMF is average, with rigid procurement being the main focus. Market prices tend to be strong, with reference to spot delivery prices of 4400 yuan/ton in Shandong and surrounding areas, and around 4500 yuan/ton in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market is expected to operate strongly in the short term, with a slight increase in prices.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: The average market price on February 18th was 7829.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% from the previous trading day.

Analysis: The price of pure benzene in the domestic market has fallen today. Shandong’s local refining enterprises have poor shipments, leading to market promotions and further price reductions. The price of pure benzene in Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China remains stable. The spot price of pure benzene in East China is consolidating at a high level. International crude oil futures closed higher, while the price of pure benzene rose in the foreign market. Today, the styrene futures market strengthened. Overall, the confidence in the pure benzene market is still acceptable. It is expected that the pure benzene market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in the short term, with limited room for downward adjustment. Actual transactions are subject to negotiation.

This week (2.9-2.14), the dichloromethane market continued to rebound. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on February 14th, the average price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 2572 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.11%;

Downstream demand is slowly recovering, with urgent procurement and reduced pressure on enterprise shipments. At the beginning of the week, the dichloromethane market continued to rise slightly. Currently, the market supply and demand are in a stalemate, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream. On February 14th, the mainstream bulk price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was around 2520-2570 yuan/ton.

Supply side: The operating load of the methane chloride unit in the enterprise has remained stable this week. The following is the operation status of the unit:

Cost aspect: The market atmosphere is weakening, shipments are slow, and the methanol and liquid chlorine markets are declining. On February 13th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2604.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2% from the beginning of the month.

Demand side: Downstream production is gradually recovering, and the demand for refrigerants is expected to be good. However, due to the impact of production and sales not yet recovering, factories have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards maintaining stability.

Business analysts believe that the expected increase in downstream production and demand will support the stable, medium to strong operation of dichloromethane.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the average sales price of PET was 6322 yuan/ton, and the market price fluctuated this week.

At present, the supply and demand fundamentals of the polyester bottle chip market lack obvious drivers, and prices are expected to mainly fluctuate with costs. From the demand side, it is expected that the soft drink and oil industries will continue to increase in production, while the PET sheet industry has basically resumed work. In addition, foreign trade shipments have returned to normal, with signs of concentrated shipments in the short term. These factors have collectively driven the growth of demand for polyester bottle chips.

In response to the current market situation, Shengyi Society believes that there may be a certain risk of price correction in the PET market in the short term. However, due to low processing fees and a slight decrease in supply, factory inventory pressure is still acceptable, and the degree of correction is limited. With downstream production and delivery gradually resuming, it is expected that the spot price of water bottle materials in the polyester bottle chip market may remain between 6220 and 6300 yuan/ton. The actual trend of the future PET market will depend on the combined effects of multiple factors, including the operation of subsequent equipment, changes in demand, and the cost support brought about by changes in the crude oil market.