Introduction: In the first half of 2023, the domestic market for butyl acrylate showed an N-shaped trend, and in the second half, it showed an N-shaped trend. Affected by the decline in prices of dual raw materials, the release of new production capacity for butyl ester, and the recovery of lower than expected downstream demand in the fundamental common market. The demand for butyl acrylate slowly recovered in the second half of the year, and the upstream raw material butanol and octanol prices rose beyond expectations. The price of butyl acrylate rebounded slightly from September to October. The price fluctuation of butyl acrylate is significantly weak compared to last year.

Comparison of quarterly fluctuations in the domestic butyl acrylate market

In terms of price fluctuations, the price of butyl acrylate in the domestic market was around 10800 yuan/ton in the first quarter, a decrease of 5700 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2022; The price in the second quarter was around 9000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7100 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2022. The price in the third quarter was around 9900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2200 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2022. The price in the fourth quarter was around 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2022. The peak price in 2023 was around 11500 yuan/ton, which occurred in mid to late September and early October, respectively. The lowest price was around 8800 yuan/ton, which appeared in early April. The price peak price difference range in 2023 is 2700 yuan/ton, which is significantly narrower than the high and low price difference in 2022.

Both supply and demand data have fallen, and the performance of the butyl acrylate market is mediocre

In the first half of the year, there were many butyl acrylate factories that carried out load reduction operations, resulting in a production volume of only 1.024 million tons, a decrease of 5.8% compared to the same period in the first half of the year. In terms of imports, due to the increase in imports from Russia since the second half of last year, according to customs data, the cumulative import volume of butyl acrylate from November 2023 to November 2023 in China was 10798.937 tons, a decrease of 2417.407 tons compared to the same period last year, with a decrease of 18.29%. The cumulative export volume from January to November was 216835.105 tons, a decrease of 22358.683 tons compared to the same period last year, with a growth rate of 9.35%. In November, due to the maintenance and load reduction of multiple factories for butyl acrylate, the spot supply was tight. The situation of oversupply in 2024 may still exist, but with the recovery and continuous development of the domestic economy, the supply-demand relationship may gradually move towards balance.

The demand continues to be weak, and the overall driving force of downstream industries is limited.

In 2023, the downstream tape master roll industry of butyl acrylate will also maintain a light demand situation. The purchase volume of adhesive tape master rolls is low, and there is insufficient support for the market price of adhesive tape master rolls. Adhesive tape master roll manufacturers are offering discounts to promote transactions. The cost has weakened the support for the tape master roll, resulting in a significant shortage of new transactions on the market and high pressure on actual transactions.

In terms of acrylic lotion, affected by the cost and the characteristics of downstream demand in slack and peak seasons, the price of acrylic lotion also has a certain rise and fall law with seasonal changes. The peak season of acrylic acid lotion industry is concentrated in March, April, September and October, among which March and October have a large increase. 1. Downstream demand was sluggish in June, November, and December, and prices showed a downward trend. As a downstream product, acrylic lotion is greatly affected by the terminal real estate industry. The repair speed may be slightly slow, and the market price increase may be limited.

As the end of the year approaches, the domestic market for butyl acrylate has slightly rebounded, but it is still in a loss making state. The main reason for the increase is that the price of upstream raw material butanol has exceeded expectations. Although there is a high cost pressure, the downstream demand continues to be sluggish, and the confidence of the industry in the future market is insufficient. The supply-demand contradiction is still concentrated in the downstream terminal consumption speed.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong was volatile and consolidated in December. At the beginning of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1173.33 yuan/ton, and the highest point on the 16th was 1193.33 yuan/ton. By the end of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong had dropped to 1173.33 yuan/ton, and the current price has dropped by 6.38% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

In December, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region fluctuated and stabilized. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has had relatively small fluctuations in the past three months, but this month’s market has risen and then fallen, remaining basically unchanged. As of December 27th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1100-1220 yuan/ton. In December, the price of raw material methanol also returned to the beginning of the month at the end of the month, with average cost support. Downstream sheet factories were affected by environmental protection, and demand continued to be poor. Production enterprises faced significant shipping pressure, resulting in a downward trend in the market.

Upstream methanol situation: In December, the domestic methanol market first rose and then fell. In terms of supply, due to the impact of the cold wave, most parts of the country experienced a cliff like cooling, leading to a significant increase in daily consumption of power plants and an increase in terminal stage purchases. However, downstream acceptance of high priced market coal is limited, and transportation continues to be mainly based on long-term contract coal; The cold wave weather has to some extent boosted the consumption of electric coal, and there are still expectations of an increase in daily consumption of power plants on the basis of high levels. Some terminal demand purchases with insufficient coal reserves continue to be released. Business Society Methanol Analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market is mainly weak and consolidating.

In recent times, the methanol market has been mainly fluctuating downward, with poor cost support, and downstream sheet metal factories are taking early holidays, resulting in a decline in demand. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline slightly in the near future.

Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of tetrahydrofuran in the domestic market has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market increased from 12825 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12925 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.78%, and the weekend price increased by 1.37% year-on-year.

Upstream support is average, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have seen a slight increase in quotes this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the 1,4-butanediol market saw a slight decline this week, with prices dropping from 9542.86 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9521.43 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.22%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.54% at the end of the week. The market situation of maleic anhydride has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 7440 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7520 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 1.08%. The weekend price has increased by 6.82% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices fluctuate, with average cost support. However, due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the downstream market of tetrahydrofuran, the price of spandex in the market has slightly decreased this week. The price of spandex dropped from 32575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 32125 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.77%, and the weekend price fell 9.51% year-on-year. Downstream spandex market prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers are less proactive in purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Future prospects

In late December, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream maleic anhydride market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream spandex market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Product name: Isooctanol

Latest price (December 25th): 13025.00/ton

On December 25th, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province slightly increased, with a price increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to December 22nd, an increase of 1.96%, and a year-on-year increase of 34.74%. Upstream propylene prices have slightly increased, leading to increased cost support. The downstream plasticizer market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good.

Recently, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong region may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 13100 yuan/ton.

The price of plasticizer DBP rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 22, the DBP price was 9662.50 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased by 0.26% compared to the DBP price of 9637.50 yuan/ton on December 15; Compared to the DBP price of 9737.50 yuan/ton on December 20th, the price has decreased by 0.77%. The raw material n-butanol fluctuated and rose, while the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell. The support of DBP cost increase is difficult to sustain, and the operating rate of DBP enterprises has decreased. Downstream procurement enthusiasm has decreased. This week, DBP prices rose first and then fell.

Price reduction of plasticizer products

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the prices of plasticizer DOP and DOTP both rose first and then fell this week. The prices of plasticizer products generally fell, which was negative for DBP prices. The prices of new DBP orders also fell.

The price of isooctanol rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 22nd, the price of isooctanol was 12775 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased compared to the price of isooctanol on December 15th, which was 12650 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.99%. This week, the operating rate of downstream plasticizers has fallen, and large plasticizer manufacturers are in urgent need of procurement. The transaction volume of isooctanol is poor, and the high price support for isooctanol is insufficient. The main manufacturers of isooctanol are offering discounts for sales, and isooctanol products have stopped rising and falling.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 22, the price of n-butanol was 8866.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70% compared to December 15, when the price of n-butanol was 8550 yuan/ton. The equipment production of n-butanol enterprises has stopped short, the supply of n-butanol has decreased, and the price of n-butanol has fluctuated and increased. However, downstream production has declined, and the shipment of n-butanol is average. Major n-butanol manufacturers have offered to sell, which has supported a decrease in n-butanol prices. The downward pressure on n-butanol in the future is increasing.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that plasticizer product prices have generally decreased, and the downward pressure on plasticizer DBP prices has increased. In terms of raw materials, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose this week, while the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell. However, the prices of major n-butanol and isooctanol manufacturers have fallen, and the cost support for DBP raw materials has not been sustained. In the future, it is expected that the prices of n-butanol and isooctanol will fall, the cost support for plasticizers will weaken, and DBP cost demand will play a game. It is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 21, 2023, the factory price reference for domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 4083 yuan/ton. Compared with December 17 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate was 4116 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (12.17-12.21), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a fluctuating and declining trend. At the beginning of the week, some domestic factories had a shortage of dimethyl carbonate in stock, with a narrow increase in the shipping price of dimethyl carbonate by 50 yuan/ton. However, due to the weak downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate, some companies saw a slight price increase, which generally boosted the overall market situation. Subsequently, dimethyl carbonate was mainly consolidated and operated. During the weekend, the overall dimethyl carbonate market experienced a slight decline, with a drag on the demand side, The overall market price of dimethyl carbonate in Shandong and Anhui regions has slightly decreased, with a decrease of about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of December 21st, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is based on around 3800-4200 yuan/ton.

Analysis of future market trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the market is light, and the overall support from the downstream demand side is limited. A dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mostly be weak with narrow adjustments, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand consumption.

Recently, the market for epichlorohydrin has been mainly stable, and the market atmosphere is light. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 17th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8150.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price on Monday (December 11th).

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has slightly increased recently (12.11-12.15), with an average price of 6968 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 7010 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 0.61%. The price of raw material glycerol is mainly stable, and the impact of cost on the epichlorohydrin market is not significant.

Supply and demand side: Recently, some factories in Jiangsu, Shandong, and other regions have restarted their facilities, leading to an increase in spot supply in the market. Factory delivery contracts are the main focus, and inventory on the supply side is not under pressure. However, the demand side has a weak intention to replenish demand, mainly due to weak downstream epoxy resin operations. The mentality towards raw material procurement is cautious, and some companies in the market are offering low prices under shipment pressure, resulting in a light market atmosphere.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost impact is limited, and supply side support still exists. However, the demand side is weak, and it is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin may remain stagnant and operate on a wait-and-see basis in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Looking back at the bisphenol A market in 2023, the domestic bisphenol A market struggled to escape the curse of hovering at a low level in the first half of the year. In June, it fell to the lowest point in five years. On June 15th, the domestic market price was at 8712 yuan/ton. Finally, the third quarter saw a market boom and quickly surged to the highest point of the year. On September 16th, the domestic market reported 12062 yuan/ton, but ultimately demand was unable to support the high price market. Bisphenol A once again experienced a sharp decline in the fourth quarter. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, on October 1st, the mainstream market price of bisphenol A was reported at 11450 yuan/ton, while on October 19th, it was reported at 9612 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.05%. The main reason for the continuous decline of bisphenol A in this round is that there are many device restarts; The second is the production of new devices, with sufficient supply; Thirdly, demand remains sluggish.

The market experienced the largest decline in October, with factories suffering severe losses. The domestic market price has dropped from 10450 yuan/ton to 10062 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.12%. Firstly, in October, the decline in phenol/acetone, a dual raw material, was significant, and bisphenol A lost its cost support for a while, showing a broad downward trend; Secondly, with relatively stable supply, demand is sluggish, and terminal factories mainly consume inventory and contracts. Faced with a high willingness of actual traders to offer discounts and shipments in the market, the market is deteriorating. In October, bisphenol A experienced a rapid decline, and factories suffered severe losses. As of the end of the month, bisphenol A factories suffered losses of nearly a thousand yuan/ton.

In November, the supply side tightened and the market fluctuated at a low level. Entering November, the domestic production capacity operating rate dropped to 60% for a while, and in the latter half of the year, the double raw materials saw a slight increase. With the support of cost, the willingness of manufacturers to ship weakened under pressure and loss, but terminal demand was sluggish, and the bottom fluctuated slightly after a sluggish market.

The expected increase in supply in December has once again put pressure on the market to bottom out. There were many maintenance and unplanned parking devices in November, but they gradually resumed in December. The supply side is loose. Recently, delivery contracts for bisphenol A factories have been the main focus, and spot trading in the market has been flat. As of now, the negotiated price for bisphenol A in the market has reached 9600-9700 yuan/ton. On the demand side, the demand for the two downstream products is weak, with insufficient transactions and weak market volatility. The epoxy resin market is weak, and the overall operating rate is less than 50%. Enterprises are mainly bearish about the future market. The East China liquid epoxy resin market offer is 13000-13400 yuan/ton of purified water for delivery, and the Mount Huangshan solid epoxy resin market negotiation price is 13000-13400 yuan/ton for cash delivery. The downstream PC market is weak and volatile, with mainstream negotiations for injection grade mid to high end materials in East China at 15650 yuan/ton. Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to restart the first phase of its PC plant, but there is no significant fluctuation in other areas. The operating rate is less than 50%.

More than a month before the Spring Festival, there were still significant changes in the supply and demand as well as cost aspects of the bisphenol A market. However, in the face of this year’s sluggish market situation, there was a strong intention for upstream and downstream light positions at the end of the year. Currently, the market is still more bearish than bullish, making it difficult to be optimistic.

Positive: From the perspective of supply, the 150000 ton/year plant of South Asia Plastics undergoes shutdown and maintenance. From the perspective of cost, based on the current trend of phenol and acetone, there is a high probability of fluctuation around the current market situation, with a range of 200-300 yuan/ton. In the short term, it is difficult to have significant positive effects. Among them, the recent market changes of phenol and acetone are greatly affected by port inventory, factory maintenance, and industry trends. Currently, the negotiated price of phenol in the East China region is between 7750-7850 yuan/ton, and the mainstream negotiated price of acetone in the East China region is 6800 yuan/ton. The average cost of bisphenol A fluctuates between 10000-10500 yuan/ton. From the perspective of bisphenol A factories, the theoretical value is still in a loss state.

Negative: In terms of supply, there were many new units added in December, and the market expected supply to increase. Longjiang Chemical is currently undergoing commissioning with an annual output of 200000 tons, while South Asia Plastics Phase II is gradually stabilizing with an annual output of 170000 tons. Hengli Petrochemical’s 240000 tons per year and new units in Qingdao Bay need attention for production. From a demand perspective, the two downstream products, epoxy resin and PC, have started production between 50-60%, and currently the epoxy resin industry is still at a loss line, with industry production also being suppressed. It is expected that there will be no significant fluctuations in production rates until January.

As the end of the year approaches, the chemical industry index is still fluctuating at a low level, and there is a lack of positive market news. Currently, bisphenol A is facing an increase in supply and the gradual release of production capacity. Traders have a weak mentality, and it is expected that bisphenol A will continue to hit the bottom in the short term. If the cost side is supported, bisphenol A may remain low and hover. Considering the lack of positive news in the two downstream markets, it is highly likely that bisphenol A will fluctuate at a low level until the end of the year.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 2916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2933.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.57%, and the weekend price decreased by 20.72% year-on-year. On December 17th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 76.86, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.78% from the highest point in the cycle of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 38.51% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Upstream support is average, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have slightly increased this week, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has slightly declined, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly increased. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal medium material is around 1160 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable, with average cost support. The PVC market price has slightly declined this week, dropping from 5710.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5698.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.21%. Weekend prices fell 6.97% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may experience a volatile decline in the future market

In late December, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, downstream demand has weakened, raw material blue charcoal prices have stabilized at low levels, and cost support is average. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall narrowly in late December, with consolidation being the main trend.

Plasticizer DOTP fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 15th, the price of DOTP was 11840 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.99% compared to the price of DOTP on December 5th, which was 12080 yuan/ton. The main reason for the cost support for the record high DOTP price in December is due to the lack of cost support as the high price of raw material isooctanol has fallen, causing DOTP prices to fluctuate and fall this week.

Isooctanol prices fluctuate and fall

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of isooctanol surged in early December, but this week, the rise of isooctanol supported a decline, and the price of isooctanol fell from its high point. As of December 15th, the quoted price of isooctanol was 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% compared to the quoted price of 12825 yuan/ton on December 8th. In early December, the operating rate of downstream plasticizers increased at a high level, leading to active procurement by major plasticizer factories. As a result, demand for rigid isooctanol increased, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol products; As the price of isooctanol rises, plasticizer manufacturers experience a decrease in profits and losses, the operating load of plasticizers decreases, the high price support for isooctanol is insufficient, the demand for isooctanol decreases, and the high price of isooctanol falls back.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, the high starting point of plasticizer DOTP has fallen, the supply of DOTP has decreased, the enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has decreased, and the support for the rise of isooctanol has decreased. In the future, the high price of isooctanol will fall, the cost of raw materials will decrease, and the cost demand for plasticizer DOTP in the market will compete. It is expected that the price of DOTP will fluctuate and fall in the future.