Looking back at the bisphenol A market in 2023, the domestic bisphenol A market struggled to escape the curse of hovering at a low level in the first half of the year. In June, it fell to the lowest point in five years. On June 15th, the domestic market price was at 8712 yuan/ton. Finally, the third quarter saw a market boom and quickly surged to the highest point of the year. On September 16th, the domestic market reported 12062 yuan/ton, but ultimately demand was unable to support the high price market. Bisphenol A once again experienced a sharp decline in the fourth quarter. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, on October 1st, the mainstream market price of bisphenol A was reported at 11450 yuan/ton, while on October 19th, it was reported at 9612 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.05%. The main reason for the continuous decline of bisphenol A in this round is that there are many device restarts; The second is the production of new devices, with sufficient supply; Thirdly, demand remains sluggish.

The market experienced the largest decline in October, with factories suffering severe losses. The domestic market price has dropped from 10450 yuan/ton to 10062 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.12%. Firstly, in October, the decline in phenol/acetone, a dual raw material, was significant, and bisphenol A lost its cost support for a while, showing a broad downward trend; Secondly, with relatively stable supply, demand is sluggish, and terminal factories mainly consume inventory and contracts. Faced with a high willingness of actual traders to offer discounts and shipments in the market, the market is deteriorating. In October, bisphenol A experienced a rapid decline, and factories suffered severe losses. As of the end of the month, bisphenol A factories suffered losses of nearly a thousand yuan/ton.

In November, the supply side tightened and the market fluctuated at a low level. Entering November, the domestic production capacity operating rate dropped to 60% for a while, and in the latter half of the year, the double raw materials saw a slight increase. With the support of cost, the willingness of manufacturers to ship weakened under pressure and loss, but terminal demand was sluggish, and the bottom fluctuated slightly after a sluggish market.

The expected increase in supply in December has once again put pressure on the market to bottom out. There were many maintenance and unplanned parking devices in November, but they gradually resumed in December. The supply side is loose. Recently, delivery contracts for bisphenol A factories have been the main focus, and spot trading in the market has been flat. As of now, the negotiated price for bisphenol A in the market has reached 9600-9700 yuan/ton. On the demand side, the demand for the two downstream products is weak, with insufficient transactions and weak market volatility. The epoxy resin market is weak, and the overall operating rate is less than 50%. Enterprises are mainly bearish about the future market. The East China liquid epoxy resin market offer is 13000-13400 yuan/ton of purified water for delivery, and the Mount Huangshan solid epoxy resin market negotiation price is 13000-13400 yuan/ton for cash delivery. The downstream PC market is weak and volatile, with mainstream negotiations for injection grade mid to high end materials in East China at 15650 yuan/ton. Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to restart the first phase of its PC plant, but there is no significant fluctuation in other areas. The operating rate is less than 50%.

More than a month before the Spring Festival, there were still significant changes in the supply and demand as well as cost aspects of the bisphenol A market. However, in the face of this year’s sluggish market situation, there was a strong intention for upstream and downstream light positions at the end of the year. Currently, the market is still more bearish than bullish, making it difficult to be optimistic.

Positive: From the perspective of supply, the 150000 ton/year plant of South Asia Plastics undergoes shutdown and maintenance. From the perspective of cost, based on the current trend of phenol and acetone, there is a high probability of fluctuation around the current market situation, with a range of 200-300 yuan/ton. In the short term, it is difficult to have significant positive effects. Among them, the recent market changes of phenol and acetone are greatly affected by port inventory, factory maintenance, and industry trends. Currently, the negotiated price of phenol in the East China region is between 7750-7850 yuan/ton, and the mainstream negotiated price of acetone in the East China region is 6800 yuan/ton. The average cost of bisphenol A fluctuates between 10000-10500 yuan/ton. From the perspective of bisphenol A factories, the theoretical value is still in a loss state.

Negative: In terms of supply, there were many new units added in December, and the market expected supply to increase. Longjiang Chemical is currently undergoing commissioning with an annual output of 200000 tons, while South Asia Plastics Phase II is gradually stabilizing with an annual output of 170000 tons. Hengli Petrochemical’s 240000 tons per year and new units in Qingdao Bay need attention for production. From a demand perspective, the two downstream products, epoxy resin and PC, have started production between 50-60%, and currently the epoxy resin industry is still at a loss line, with industry production also being suppressed. It is expected that there will be no significant fluctuations in production rates until January.

As the end of the year approaches, the chemical industry index is still fluctuating at a low level, and there is a lack of positive market news. Currently, bisphenol A is facing an increase in supply and the gradual release of production capacity. Traders have a weak mentality, and it is expected that bisphenol A will continue to hit the bottom in the short term. If the cost side is supported, bisphenol A may remain low and hover. Considering the lack of positive news in the two downstream markets, it is highly likely that bisphenol A will fluctuate at a low level until the end of the year.