According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9433.33 yuan/ton on July 1st and 9460.00 yuan/ton on July 30th, a decrease of 0.78% during the month. The current price has increased by 15.20% compared to last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene first rose and then fell in July. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated in the past three months, and the decline in this month’s market is greater than the increase. The reason for the decline is the fluctuation of international oil prices, poor cost support, increased supply of styrene, and mainly rigid demand for spot goods. Poor spot demand has led to a slight decline in the styrene market.

Cost aspect

In July, pure benzene continued to decline overall, with prices plummeting by a thousand miles. The inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu region is 39800 tons, an increase of 19800 tons from the end of last month, indicating a rapid increase in inventory. Most refineries in Shandong continue to lower their offers. After the price increase, the market continued to buy and the transactions were better. As of July 30th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in Shandong market was 9318.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.96% from 8389.67 at the beginning of the month. The arrival of imported pure benzene goods on board has been delayed, and the accumulated inventory at the port this month is lower than expected, with a slight increase expected in the later period.

Supply side

There were many maintenance visits to the styrene plant in July. Under the current profit situation, the enthusiasm of production enterprises to start production is limited, and it is expected that there will be little supply pressure in August, and there is an expectation of a decrease in output.

Demand side

In July, the three major downstream producers of styrene fluctuated and consolidated. Among them, the EPS market is stable, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is more obvious. Merchants buy according to demand, and overall transactions are poor. Domestic ABS prices have slightly increased. The overall stalemate of the upstream three materials is weak, and the cost support for ABS is average. In the early stage, the favorable news of the downward adjustment of ABS polymerization plant construction has been exhausted, and there has been a slight increase in social inventory, but there is still supply pressure on site. The demand side has weak demand, and the market situation is obvious during the off-season, resulting in low trading momentum. Overall, it is expected that the ABS market will remain weak and difficult to change in the short term. The demand for PS in the middle and lower reaches is generally moderate, with slightly higher competition pressure for perbenzene. However, the conversion of benzene is still acceptable, and the short-term PS market may be dominated by narrow consolidation.

According to the styrene data analyst from Shengyi Society, the current cost based pure price continues to decline, with poor cost support. At the end of the month, styrene supply has increased, while demand for essential goods is still acceptable and spot demand is poor. Shengyi Society analysts predict that the styrene market will mainly experience a slight decline.

The price of plasticizer DOP hit a new low for the year in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% from the DOP price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month; Compared to January 1st, the DOP price dropped by 21.23% to 12091.67 yuan/ton. The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in July, and on July 29th, the price of DOP hit a new low for the year 2024. On July 29th, the price was at its lowest point in a year, a decrease of 2691.67 yuan/ton or 22.03% from the highest price of 12216.67 yuan/ton in a year.

In terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol hit a new annual low in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the price of isooctanol was 8966.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.66% from the price of 9710 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 30.76% from the price of 12950 yuan/ton on January 1st. In July, isooctanol hit a new low for the year, and on July 29th, the price of isooctanol was at its lowest point in a year. The trading atmosphere for new orders in the isooctanol market remains weak. In July, the octanol plant in the northwest region resumed normal production, and there are plans to start production for the octanol plant in Zibo, Shandong. The purchase of spot octanol has slowed down, putting pressure on high-end market offers. The Shandong factory took the initiative to lower prices for shipments, but due to poor transactions in the plasticizer market, small orders from buyers were restocked, which affected the market trading atmosphere. The support for octanol prices is insufficient, and the price of isooctanol has hit a new low for the year.

Supply factors

The cost of DOP is mainly affected by the raw material octanol, with a correlation coefficient of 0.960 between isooctanol and DOP. The trend of DOP market is highly correlated with the isooctanol market. As the expected production of the new octanol unit approaches in the later stage, industry players generally lack confidence in the future market. Octanol factories maintain low inventory operations for their products, while plasticizer factories also adopt a cautious attitude towards the procurement of raw material octanol, mainly focusing on replenishing inventory at low prices in stages. The short-term concentrated replenishment of buying orders can only temporarily support the market price, but lacks sustained rebound momentum, and the future DOP market may experience long-term fluctuations and weak operation.

Demand factors

The overall demand for terminals is in the off-season. From the comparison of quarterly demand trends in previous years, the third quarter was mostly the off-season for DOP consumption. The high temperature in the south affects construction and product production, leading to high cost pressure and insufficient order demand, resulting in a significant reduction in workload and production shutdowns for small and medium-sized enterprises; The production of PVC disposable gloves industry is hovering around 4-4.5%; As temperatures rise, the proportion of plasticizers added to the film industry decreases. The demand for industries related to construction and decoration, such as furniture packaging film, flooring, PVC wallpaper, etc., remains weak. In the absence of confidence in the future market, downstream product companies are forced to replenish their inventory of DOP at low prices, resulting in a lack of sustained market transactions and insufficient support for demand in the face of DOP.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, the price of raw material isooctanol has fallen to a new low, the price of phthalic anhydride has weakened and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; Downstream demand is low season, with poor demand for plasticizers. In the future, as the cost of DOP raw materials decreases and downstream demand is low, the price of plasticizer DOP is weakly consolidating.

This week (July 22-26, 2024), downstream demand for cotton yarn was flat, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The upstream raw material dissolution slurry market remained strong, with cost support remaining. Adhesive short fiber enterprises had tight inventory, and adhesive short fiber was running steadily with stable prices. The downstream cotton yarn market has weak production, and the overall market is still dominated by rigid demand procurement. There is no obvious sign of improvement on the demand side. Downstream yarn factories mainly consume inventory, and the release of new orders on site is limited. Adhesive short fiber manufacturers mainly execute shipments, and the overall market delivery speed is stable.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable this week (July 22-26, 2024). As of July 26th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13500 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

In terms of supply, the production of adhesive short fiber factories has remained stable, with an industry operating load rate of around 78%, and overall shipments remain relatively stable.

In terms of cost, the price of the main raw material dissolving pulp remains relatively high and stable. The price of broad-leaved dissolving pulp for domestic enterprises is referenced to 7700 yuan/ton, and the price for external markets is referenced to 940 US dollars/ton, which supports the cost of adhesive short fibers. And the adhesive short fiber industry is in a narrow loss state, with factories showing reluctance to sell at low prices.

In terms of demand, the downstream market for human cotton yarn is deepening during the off-season, and with slow shipments, the replenishment of viscose staple fibers may still be mainly driven by rigid demand.

Future forecast

In July, the textile market entered the traditional off-season, with weak terminal demand and low operating rates of downstream cotton yarn factories. The cotton yarn market may be lukewarm. With the arrival of high temperatures, downstream cotton yarn factories may also reduce production, and the demand for viscose staple fibers lacks favorable support. However, some adhesive short fiber factories have relatively sufficient orders, and the sentiment of low price reluctance to sell may still exist, resulting in relatively firm offers. The inventory of adhesive short fiber enterprises may remain at a low level in the short term, and the tight delivery of adhesive short fiber factories in the short term will have a boosting effect on the market. The market price of raw material dissolution slurry remains stable, providing stable support for the cost end of adhesive short fibers. Overall, it is expected that the market for adhesive short fibers will remain stable in the short term, with limited price fluctuations. The price is expected to be in the range of 13500-13600 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has remained stable this week. As of July 19th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.59% compared to July 1st (11516.67).

Supply side: Recently, due to the continuous rise in raw material sulfuric acid prices, production costs of enterprises have been under pressure, and the hydrogen fluoride market is operating weakly and steadily. The mainstream price for domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiations in various regions is 10500-11700 yuan/ton, and some enterprises’ equipment is still parked and waiting for the market. The release of hydrofluoric acid production is limited, and the industry’s profits are low, resulting in increased losses.

Cost side: The domestic fluorite price trend continues to decline this week. As of July 19th, the benchmark price of fluorite in Shengyi Society was 3685.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.55% compared to the beginning of this month (3781.25 yuan/ton). The domestic fluorite industry is greatly affected by the off-season, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department will carry out rectification of fluorite mines in the near future, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Some mines have conducted safety hazard inspections, making it more difficult for fluorite mines to operate. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and the decline in fluorite prices is restricted.

On the demand side: During the off-season of demand, the refrigerant market has weak production, coupled with the normal impact of quotas, resulting in weak terminal demand. The enthusiasm for procurement has declined, mainly focusing on essential purchases.

Market forecast: Upstream raw material fluorite enterprises face many difficulties in starting production in the near future, but fluorite supply is still available; The price of sulfuric acid continues to rise, and the production cost pressure of hydrofluoric acid is significant. The downstream refrigerant industry has entered the off-season with weak demand, which has weakened the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will continue to weaken in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has fallen. On July 23rd, the average market price in Shandong was around 807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34% from last weekend and an increase of 8.47% year-on-year. On July 22, the chemical index was 879 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 37.21% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.99% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the expected recovery of equipment maintenance and inventory in Shandong region is average, and downstream procurement is weak, resulting in relatively weak demand. The price of caustic soda in Hubei region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of about 970-1050 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Shandong region, the price of caustic soda has slightly increased, with a mainstream market price of about 750-830 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. Most enterprises have lowered their prices by 10-20 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price in Jiangsu region is around 860-940 yuan/ton.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 29th week of 2024 (7.15-7.19), there were 0 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are: calcium carbide (-1.84%), baking soda (-0.90%), and PVC (-0.61%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.56%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has fallen, and the equipment of previous maintenance companies has gradually resumed, leading to an expected increase in supply and inventory. The demand for downstream alumina is average and lacks favorable support. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a weak operating trend in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market has slightly increased in recent days (7.12-7.19). On July 19th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7610 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, a small increase of 0.13%. During the week, the market trend of toluene in various regions stabilized, and the market showed a situation of weak supply and demand, especially downstream demand only maintained the level of rigid demand replenishment, which had a certain drag on market sentiment. The focus of market negotiations in various regions slightly declined during the week, but due to tight supply, the downward space was limited, and market prices fluctuated narrowly.

Cost side: Crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the short-term supply and demand game of crude oil will continue to play a role, and the supply side will be supported by the geopolitical situation and OPEC’s production control. There is uncertainty on the demand side in the future, and in the short term, there will be some pressure on demand due to extreme weather conditions in the United States; In addition, the condition during peak driving season still needs further inspection. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay attention to further developments in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, which will provide directional guidance for the future demand for crude oil. Overall, under the influence of both supply and demand, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern, and the amplitude may increase with the frequent occurrence of market news factors. As of July 19th, international crude oil futures have plummeted. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.64 per barrel, a decrease of $2.66 or 3.3%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $82.63 per barrel, a decrease of $2.48 or 2.9%.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation is stable, the enterprise is operating normally, the equipment production is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7600 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7500-7550 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7700-7750 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7650 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the rigid demand support for toluene is relatively weak

This week, the comprehensive operating rate of PX in China is about 89%. On July 22, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with a current price of 8900 yuan/ton. East China, North China, Central China, and South China are all implementing this price. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. The price of PX in the external market has declined. As of July 19th, the closing price of CFR China was $1009/ton, a decrease of $3/ton from last week.

On Friday (July 19th), the Asian toluene market closed with mixed gains and losses, with the FOB Korea closing price of 879-881 US dollars/ton in August, down 1 US dollar/ton; The closing price of CFR China in August is 919-921 US dollars per ton, an increase of 4 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: With the recent increase in incoming goods, the overall supply of toluene in the market is relatively loose. In terms of demand, downstream procurement intentions are relatively weak, with only some transactions in the southern region. The market negotiation atmosphere is relatively active, while the overall demand in Shandong and eastern China is relatively weak. Overall, the lack of downstream demand support has led to a bearish supply-demand situation in the toluene market, and it is expected that the market trend will be volatile in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, under the dominance of cost decline, the mainstream market price of domestic polyester staple fiber slightly fell this week (July 15-19). As of July 19, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream staple fiber factories was 7918 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% from the beginning of the week.

The price of raw material PTA has weakened, with the average PTA market price in East China at 5931 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.25%. The current operating rate of the PTA industry in China is around 84%, and some units will still restart in the later stage. However, the PTA maintenance plan is relatively few, and the liquidity may be sufficient after the supply returns, resulting in significant pressure on the accumulated inventory.

Mainstream polyester staple fiber factories maintain high price sales, increasing inventory pressure, and traders attract customers with relatively low prices, resulting in a strong shipping mentality. Although there are no maintenance plans in the near future, there is a possibility of unplanned production cuts due to the pressure of factory inventory accumulation. It is expected that the trend of production will decline and the supply will decrease.

On the demand side, the textile terminal continues to be in a off-season state, downstream yarn factories have weak shipments, the market has scarce new orders, and inventory turnover is slow. The yarn factory is resistant to high priced raw materials, and at the same time, cash flow is tight. They are mainly observing and maintaining a small amount of essential purchases.

Business analysts believe that the downward shift in cost center has weakened the support for polyester staple fibers, coupled with weak downstream demand, and the lack of enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Currently, only short fiber manufacturers are selling at high prices, which is expected to provide insufficient price support.

The zinc price fluctuated this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 16th, the zinc price was 24202 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.29% compared to the zinc price of 24272 yuan/ton on July 9th.

Macro dynamics

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest World Economic Outlook report, maintaining its expectations for global economic growth. It is expected that the global economy will record growth rates of 3.2% and 3.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. The IMF has raised its forecast for China’s economic growth this year to 5%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than its April forecast. The latest forecast from the IMF is that global economic growth is expected to remain at 3.2% in 2024, while global trade volume is expected to increase by 3.1% and 3.4% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, both of which are 0.1 percentage points higher than the forecast in April. The expected growth rate of the US economy this year has been lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 2.6%, while the expected growth rate of the Eurozone economy has been raised by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%. The IMF stated that the momentum of global de inflation is slowing down, making the normalization of monetary policy more complex.

London LME futures market zinc ingot inventory decreased by 15750 tons compared to the beginning of the month

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), as of July 16th, the inventory level of London zinc was 246100 tons. The LME market’s zinc ingot inventory continued to decline slightly, with a decrease of 15750 tons from the beginning of the month.

The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun Lead Zinc Mine project has completed mining of 60000 tons

The Huoshaoyun lead-zinc mine in Xinjiang is located in the central part of the Karakoram Mountains, with characteristics such as large deposit scale, high ore grade, and simple mining and processing technology. The total investment of the Xinjiang Huoshaoyun Lead Zinc Mine project is 26.17 billion yuan, including 12.221 billion yuan for mining engineering, 5.433 billion yuan for long-distance slurry transportation pipeline engineering, and 8.516 billion yuan for smelting engineering. At present, the mine has completed a total of 600000 cubic meters of stripping and extracted 60000 tons of ore.

Future forecast

According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, with the production of domestically burned cloud mines, there may be an increase in output, but considering the limited impact of weather conditions on actual mining time. Domestic safety and environmental inspections are relatively frequent, and some enterprises have also experienced a decrease in production due to the impact of floods and waterlogging disasters. This week, the production of zinc plating and zinc oxide downstream has rebounded compared to last week, but the performance of die-casting is still weak, and overall orders have not improved. Short term zinc prices are likely to remain volatile.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate showed an overall downward trend in the first ten months of July. On July 16th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 93912 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85% compared to the average price of 95400 yuan/ton on July 1st. On July 16th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 97060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.94% compared to the average price of 100000 yuan/ton on July 1st.

On the cost side, the current cost of producing lithium carbonate from external lithium concentrate is about 97800 yuan/ton, and the cost of producing lithium carbonate from lithium mica is about 102800 yuan/ton. The cost side continues to loosen, and lithium prices are under pressure. Some external mining and processing plants have reduced production, and the supply pressure has slightly eased.

On the demand side: In July, the production schedule of large factories producing ternary positive electrodes improved, but the increase was limited. It is expected that peak season stocking will begin in August, which may stimulate an increase in power battery production.

Downstream end: Lithium hydroxide prices are running weakly. At present, the production and sales operating rates of lithium hydroxide have both increased to a certain extent, and the overall performance of production and sales is average. It is expected that the lithium hydroxide market will remain weakly stable in the later stage.

The lithium carbonate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is obvious pressure of overcapacity in the current lithium carbonate market, and there is still continuous production of new capacity. The surplus situation is difficult to change, and it is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price will remain in a wait-and-see situation, maintaining a low consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market rose first and then fell this week (7.8-12), and overall prices fell. On Monday, the average price of PVC in China was 5666 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5574 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% in price during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC spot market has been weak, with prices mainly decreasing slightly. With the weakening of the futures market, the mainstream transaction prices in the spot PVC market have also fallen to a certain extent. Coupled with the pressure of supply and demand, the spot market has weakened to some extent. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 5500-5700 yuan/ton.

In terms of calcium carbide, as we entered July, the domestic price of calcium carbide continued to decline. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of calcium carbide dropped by 3.55% during the month. Overall, the trading sentiment in the calcium carbide market was pessimistic during the week, and the situation of traders receiving goods was sluggish compared to before.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the PVC spot market has experienced slight fluctuations and a decline this week. Upstream calcium carbide prices have decreased, with average cost support. International crude oil futures maintained range volatility, and the PVC futures market performed weakly in the later stage, affecting confidence in the spot market. The PVC spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate within a certain range in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.