1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic sodium bicarbonate is stable. On September 29, the average price of the domestic market was 1760 yuan / ton, while on September 28, the average price of the domestic market was 1666.67 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 5.4%. On September 28th, the bicarbonate commodity index was 110.62, which was the same as yesterday, setting a record high in the cycle. It was 10.62% higher than the lowest point of 100.00 on September 06, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is strong now. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan is firm, and the mainstream quotation in the market is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton. The price of sodium bicarbonate is rising, and the downstream demand is fair. It is expected that the price will slightly consolidate in the near future. The price of sodium bicarbonate in Hebei Province has been running steadily. The mainstream market quotation is about 1700-1850 yuan / ton. The price of sodium bicarbonate is stable and the downstream demand is fair.

Raw materials: according to the business agency, the price rise of sodium bicarbonate is due to the price rise of soda ash upstream. The price trend of soda ash manufacturers / 200 tons is stronger than that of domestic manufacturers, and the price of some soda ash manufacturers is up in one week. Second, domestic soda ash inventory declined. According to statistics, the inventory continued to maintain a downward trend, with a total of 517300 tons, with a decrease rate of 76700 tons or 12.91%, and the number of maintenance enterprises increased recently. The domestic total operating rate is about 76%. The following figure shows the domestic mainstream market quotation of light soda ash.

Regional price (yuan / ton)

North China 1850-1900 + 200

East China 1700-1850 + 100

Central China 1700-1800 + 100

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for sodium bicarbonate in medicine, textile and food is fair, while the price of sodium bicarbonate goes up. According to the analysts of the business agency, the domestic soda ash market is rising steadily, the market atmosphere has recovered, and the downstream demand is fair. The soda industry meeting was held and some manufacturers adjusted their prices at the end of the month. It is expected that the trend of stable and upward trend of soda ash in the later stage is expected. The price of soda ash in East China is relatively strong. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1700-1850 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda ash is 1850-1950 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is fair and the inventory clearing rhythm is good. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be strong in the short term. On the downstream side, the demand for sodium bicarbonate in medicine, textile and food is fair, and the supply of sodium bicarbonate in Shandong is tight. It is expected that the price of sodium bicarbonate will maintain a high level in the future.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the relationship between supply and demand, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong has been running steadily. As of September 28, the average price in Shandong was about 2600 yuan / ton, up 14.04% compared with the beginning of the month and 9.24% higher than the same period of last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Jinling, Shandong Province: 440000 tons / year: 60%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 50%

Shandong Dongyue: 280000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year 70%

Jiangsu Meilan 200000 tons / year 70%

Quhua, Zhejiang: 300000 yuan / year: 70%

Zhejiang Juhua 300 kt / a normal operation

At present, the domestic dichloromethane market is running steadily. Downstream and traders have a good intention to prepare goods before the festival. Affected by enterprises’ burden reduction and demand support, enterprises’ inventory pressure is not big, and the price intention is good. However, due to the limitation of transportation during the national day, the price rise space of dichloromethane is limited. The price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2600-2650 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 3100 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2550 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream market, methanol market tends to be stable before the festival, with few offers for logistics goods. Most of the operators wait and see, and the market transaction is average, at present, about 1790 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market starts smoothly, the spot supply is sufficient, and the operators are mainly on the wait-and-see manner, and the mainstream price of the industry is about 900-1100 yuan / ton.

The market situation of refrigerants is not clear, the demand is weak, the market transaction is weak, the market price of various types of refrigerants continues to be low, the market lacks obvious positive signals, and the attitude of the industry is negative; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started smoothly, and there is insufficient support for dichloromethane.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, the domestic dichloromethane market is stabilizing, and the manufacturers have a good attitude of raising prices without pressure in inventory. With the arrival of the National Day holiday, the Limited Logistics and transportation situation will lead to the weak trading in the industry, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be stable and strong in a short period of time.

1、 Price trend

This week, the selling price of sulphuric acid in Shandong is stable temporarily, with the quotation of 392.50 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s sulfuric acid market temporarily stable, September 25 sulfuric acid commodity index was 61.06.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong this week is temporarily stable, the manufacturers’ inventory is small, and the downstream demand is strong. Heze Jiangyuan quoted 380 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu offered 270 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 350 yuan / T, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; kunshengda of Taiyuan City quoted 570 yuan / T at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support is good. However, the market of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate in the lower reaches has a positive impact on sulfuric acid, and the price of bromine is also rising steadily. There are many favorable factors in the downstream. At the same time, some sulfuric acid factories are short of operation recently, the load is reduced, and the supply of sulfuric acid is in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

In late September, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province rose mainly due to small fluctuation. The price of sulfur in the upstream has risen slightly in recent years, and the downstream market has been consolidated at a high level. The demand for sulfuric acid in the downstream is positive, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business agency believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or a small rise.

1、 Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to keep steady this week, with the average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week at 1700.00 yuan / ton and at the weekend of 1700.00 yuan / ton, with a rise and fall range of 0.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market of sodium pyrosulfite is relatively stable. The market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1550-1800 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated in 1600-1700 yuan / ton. The production of the enterprise is stable, and the inventory is maintained at about 30%. The enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers, but the increase of new orders is limited. Market transaction atmosphere is fair, fast in and fast out, just need to support. (the above prices all refer to the external quotation of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact all manufacturers for details.).

This week, the domestic soda ash price remained stable, sulfur price increased slightly by 2.02%, raw material price continued to be stable and strong, and the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future market will continue to get some support.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency analysts believe that the upstream raw material growth trend is stable, cost support, the short-term market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to run strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus rose slightly this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 15600 yuan / ton on Monday and 15650 yuan / ton on Thursday. The price rose by 0.32% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the trend of yellow phosphorus market is relatively stable, and the price has risen steadily. Close to the National Day holiday, manufacturers mainly issued early orders, some manufacturers stopped quoting, yellow phosphorus spot transactions were less, spot prices slightly increased. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan Province is about 15500-15700 yuan / ton; that in Sichuan Province is about 15700 yuan / ton; that in Guizhou Province is about 15500-15700 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, China’s phosphate ore market as a whole continued to maintain a stable operation this week, with light on-site trading. The price quoted by many mining enterprises in Guizhou remains stable, the downstream purchasing market is general, and the shipment volume is general. At present, the quotation of 30% phosphate rock slab in Guizhou is around 280-330 yuan / T, and the actual price is mainly negotiated. Up to now, the market price of coke is temporarily stable. The mainstream price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) is 2130 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day and 100 yuan / ton higher than the same period last month. The demand of downstream steel mills is good, and coke inventory of some steel mills is low. Port area inventory decline, traders mainly wait-and-see, market participants generally optimistic about the future market.

In terms of demand, this week’s phosphoric acid market sales in general, near the National Day holiday, logistics or will be limited, individual enterprises slightly adjust the quotation, the market wait-and-see mood.. Phosphate market sales are OK, or the original old customers in the normal order, the overall demand for yellow phosphorus is general.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that the overall trend of the domestic yellow phosphorus market is general, and the spot price of the yellow phosphorus market is slightly tense and the transaction is limited. Manufacturers basically maintain the early orders, the downstream of the yellow phosphorus have some stock, take the goods more cautious, traders wait-and-see mood is obvious. The price of yellow phosphorus is expected to be stable in the short term.

Recently, the domestic rare earth market demand is not good, and the floor prices are falling. As of the 23rd, domestic light and light rare earth prices have different declines. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on September 22 was 369 points, down 1 point compared with yesterday, 63.10% lower than 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 36.16% higher than 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of September 23, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 330500 yuan / ton, down 2.79% from 340000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the price of praseodymium and neodymium alloy was 420500 yuan / ton, down 2.89% from 433000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the price of neodymium oxide was 355000 yuan / ton, 2.07% lower than that of 362500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the price of metal neodymium was 447000 yuan / ton, down 272500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month %, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium metal prices have different degrees of decline. The price of heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide was 1.705 million yuan / ton, which was 4.21% lower than the price of 1.78 million yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the price of dysprosium metal was 2.215 million yuan / ton, 1.56% lower than that at the beginning of the month

In recent years, the price of PR and nd Series in domestic light rare earth has continued to fall. The main reason is that the current industry procurement has come to an end. In the early stage, the downstream stock is more active, and some manufacturers are hoarding more goods. Recently, the purchasing sentiment has fallen. In addition, the domestic PR and nd series prices have continued to fall due to the influence of the market merchants’ buying up and not falling. On the other hand, the supply of praseodymium and neodymium rare earth market in China has been normal recently. In addition, the inquiry situation in the downstream market has declined, and the major light rare earth manufacturers have sold. The downstream felt the change of market sentiment, the trading situation declined and the floor price fell. The supply of light rare earth is normal, and the recent purchase is not active, so the market price is under pressure.

In September, the price of domestic legitimate family gradually fell down. Although the proportion of medium and heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan accounts for a large proportion of the annual output, it is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. In addition, Myanmar’s customs clearance still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earth. However, the situation of collection and storage is uncertain, and the on-site demand is not improved, and the legitimate price is gradually falling. Domestic terbium supply is relatively tight, manufacturers’ production is not continuous, and terbium oxide and metal terbium have reached near high level. In addition, recent on-site procurement is not active, and the price of terbium series is rising and falling. However, due to the lack of supply, the price of terbium series remains high. The performance of terminal new energy vehicle market is relatively normal, and the market price of heavy rare earth has declined.

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises, and formed a collection of supporting policies for the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry. Favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. Meanwhile, Sino US relations are tense. Key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. Recently, the supply of rare earth market is normal, and the domestic rare earth industry is developing in a better way.

In the near future, domestic rare earth demand is mainly purchased on demand, and the supply of medium and heavy rare earth market is normal. Analysts of business agency believe that in the near future, the downstream procurement is not active, and the domestic rare earth market price may continue to bear pressure and slightly lower due to the influence of the sentiment of buying up and not buying down.

Market trend of magnesium market in 2020

On September 22, 2020, the price of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China will run weakly and stably, with the overall range of 12100-12500 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is mainly discussed.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 12100-12200 yuan / ton; that in Taiyuan area is 12200-12300 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, it is 12300-12400 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, it is 12150-12200 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot is the original magnesium ingot of national standard (GB / t3499-2011); it is not pickled, has no wooden pallet and does not pay the acceptance price, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic market on the 22nd was 12333.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.89% compared with the average price of 12700 yuan / ton in the market at the beginning of September (9.1), and 14166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of September (1.1), a decrease of 12.94%. In recent years, the price of magnesium ingot has been running weakly and steadily, and the price has been reduced slightly.

Low volume delivery

At present, there is not much trading in the market, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the export side is not in good supply and demand. The domestic market supply and demand are weak in the support of magnesium price.

On the one hand, the magnesium ingot Market is soft and bearish sentiment is rising. The reserve demand belongs to the expected buying, and the up and down sentiment does not affect the market operation; on the other hand, the recent low price of magnesium makes downstream customers more wait-and-see market, and just need to purchase.

Near the end of the month, some magnesium ingot manufacturers’ demand for funds to withdraw increased. This week, some manufacturers lowered their prices to promote volume with prices, reduce inventory pressure, and increase the supply of low-cost goods in the market. It is reported that some manufacturers will ship at the price of 12100-12400 yuan / ton.

Future forecast

The market expectation of weak trading and stock accumulation is difficult to reverse and digest in the short term. Based on the low price of magnesium ingot and the limited space for magnesium enterprises to reduce, it is expected that the market will still be weak and stable in the near future.

Trend analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the cobalt market fluctuated in September and the price of cobalt remained stable. As of September 21, the average price of cobalt was 274500.00 yuan / ton, down 1.32% from 278166.66 yuan / ton on September 1. In September, the demand of cobalt market recovered, and the price of cobalt fluctuated to maintain stability.

Domestic mobile phone sales

According to the statistics of China Academy of communications and communications, in August 2020, the total volume of domestic mobile phone market was 26.907 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%; from January to August, the total volume of domestic mobile phone market was 202 million, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%. Mobile phone sales decreased year on year, but rose month on month. Domestic cobalt market demand decreased year on year, but slowly recovered. Cobalt market has certain upward momentum but insufficient support.

Domestic sales of new energy vehicles

According to the data of CAAC, in August 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 106000 and 109000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 6.0% and 11.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 17.7% and 25.8%; from January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 602000 and 596000, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% and 26.4%. In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both rose sharply on a month on month basis, but the overall production and sales still declined in 2020, which was good for the cobalt market, and the driving force for the rise of cobalt price increased, but the overall driving force was insufficient.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that the cobalt market fluctuated and adjusted in September, the mobile phone market and the new energy vehicle market gradually recovered in August, and the stimulation of the state’s purchase and storage news all contributed to the demand for cobalt market. The domestic cobalt market demand rose, but the production and sales of new energy vehicles and mobile phones fell sharply year-on-year, indicating that the cobalt market demand is not enough to support the continuous rise of the cobalt Market and the national income Reserve uncertainty does not support the continued rise in cobalt prices. Overall, the support for the rise of the cobalt market is insufficient, and the price of cobalt fluctuates to maintain stability.

This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable in most regions, while Hebei continued to maintain the steady state last week. The price in Shandong first fell and then rose, and the price stabilized at the weekend. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the decline of liquid ammonia was 1.06% in the week of 18th according to the monitoring of the business agency, and the main market quotation was 2750-3000 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of this week, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong decreased for two consecutive days, the range was about 150 yuan / ton, and the price rose slightly at the weekend. Before the beginning of the week, the main equipment of large factories was still in the maintenance period, the liquid ammonia shipment increased significantly, the manufacturers’ inventory pressure gradually increased, and the enterprise’s quotation was mainly based on the corresponding margin. However, at the end of the week, the enterprise’s equipment material returned to stability, so the price stabilized and rebounded slightly In the near future, prices will remain stable.

In other regions, big stability and small movement, while Hebei region closely followed the price trend of Shandong region. However, although the price in Shandong region changed this week, the range was not large, and the ammonia outflow from Shandong was not as large as expected, and the impact on Hebei region was not obvious. Therefore, the manufacturers’ prices in Hebei region were multidimensional stable in the previous week, and the prices did not change significantly. The range of rise and fall is about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the Cangzhou unit of a plant in Hebei still produces a small amount of liquid ammonia, so the pressure is not big. This is also an important factor to balance the supply and demand of the region. The liquid ammonia quantity in the region basically maintains a balance between supply and demand, and the current price is 2950-3100 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business agency believes that most of the liquid ammonia market has stabilized over the weekend. In the first half of the month, the price range of liquid ammonia fluctuates, and there is no big market. It is expected that the domestic ammonia volume will remain moderate in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will continue to consolidate in the near future, and the trend of various regions may appear certain differentiation. The market is mainly affected by large plants and devices, and the later period may be mountainous There are still maintenance problems in the East region. It is not ruled out that the ammonia quantity will gradually accumulate and the price may be impacted to some extent. On the demand side, the downstream demand is rigid and stable, and urea winter storage begins. However, the current high inventory is not relieved, and the price support is limited. In terms of the downstream fertilizer market, with the end of the autumn fertilizer production and sales season approaching, the downstream demand may shrink, and the downstream operating rate is expected to gradually decrease in the later stage. Comprehensive consideration, liquid ammonia will maintain stability in the near future, and COSCO will maintain stability in the near future There are downside risks in futures prices.

On September 16, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.16/barrel, up $1.88 or 4.90%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the main contract settlement price to 42.22 US dollars / barrel, up 1.69 US dollars or 4.16%. The sharp rise in oil prices was mainly due to the sharp decline in US crude oil and gasoline stocks, and the superposition of Hurricane “Sally” forced a large number of us oil production to be blocked.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell 4.4 million barrels last week to 496 million barrels, the lowest level since April, according to a report released by the energy information administration on Wednesday. In the previous survey, analysts forecast an increase of 1 million 300 thousand barrels. As soon as the data was released, it was quite different from previous analysts’ forecasts, and the oil market jumped sharply in response to the news. Gasoline inventory also showed significant positive performance. According to EIA, the US gasoline inventory decreased by 400000 barrels, more than twice as much as analysts expected, and the capacity utilization rate was estimated to increase by 4 percentage points.

The reason for the sharp drop in inventories is that the crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico region has fallen sharply due to Hurricane Sally. As the hurricane approaches the US Gulf Coast, more than 25% of the US offshore oil and gas production is damaged, and the export ports are also closed.

At the same time, relevant news shows that the implementation rate of the OPEC oil production alliance in August may be 101%, and the scale of the reduction is generally in line with market expectations. Moreover, the OPEC oil ministerial committee will meet on Thursday to review the supply agreement. During this period, the signal released during this period is relatively strong. Although the oil price has fallen before, it is unlikely to further reduce the production, which also has certain hidden meaning for the later oil price Suffering.

The business club believes that the rebound in oil prices is mainly due to the force majeure of Hurricane “Sally”. At present, the fundamentals are still not optimistic, and the number of new cases is still high. In order to stimulate the economy, the relaxation of blockade measures in various countries has made it more difficult to prevent the epidemic in the later stage. Moreover, the possibility of fighting back the epidemic situation in winter is increasing, and the fuel demand will continue to be under pressure in the medium and long term, and the oil price is expected to be difficult to delay Continued.