After the overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao railway, the coal railway transfer in volume of northern port has significantly recovered and increased. However, affected by the factors such as higher downstream purchasing enthusiasm, better coal transfer out from port, and limited growth rate of coal supply in production area, coal inventory in northern port increased slowly, and coal price and coal transportation price increased steadily.

Last week, the main steam coal futures 2101 contract high fall, the main funds reduction and import coal news disturbance is the fuse of the decline. However, the fundamental pattern of low inventory and strong demand in the steam coal market is difficult to reverse in a short period of time. It is expected that the price of steam coal will still be dominated by strong operation this winter.

Slow growth of coal inventory

After the overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao railway, the coal railway transfer in volume of northern port has significantly recovered and increased. However, affected by the factors such as higher downstream purchasing enthusiasm, better coal transfer out from port, and limited growth rate of coal supply in production area, coal inventory in northern port increased slowly, and coal price and coal transportation price increased steadily.

Recently, the national development and Reform Commission said that it would continue to promote domestic coal enterprises to increase production and supply, but at the same time, it always insisted on safety as the premise of ensuring supply. From the perspective of the utilization rate of coal production capacity in the main production areas, the production capacity has been at a high level within the year. No matter for the reasons of policy guidance or good production profits, coal enterprises have a high enthusiasm for increasing production. However, under the background of normalization of safety inspection, the space for further improvement of daily output of raw coal is relatively limited.

And the downstream coal demand gradually opened the peak season mode. As cold air activities become more frequent, the “cold winter” closely watched by the market is expected to materialize. This week, China’s central and eastern regions ushered in a wide range of rain and snow cooling weather, the lowest air temperature 0 ℃ line will be pushed southward to the central and southern part of the Huanghuai river. It is estimated that in the next 20 days, the temperature in most areas of China will be close to or lower than the annual average level in the same period.

Although the downstream power plants have replenished the coal inventory in advance to a level higher than that in the same period of previous years, the coal inventory of important transit ports is at a low level, and it is expected that it will not accumulate in peak season, so the market sentiment will still exist.

Limited increase in import coal

There have been many unconfirmed reports this week that the quantity limit on imported coal will be relaxed to stabilize domestic coal prices. However, some people in the industry said that Guangdong Province applied to increase the import quota of 28.61 million tons, but only 3 million tons were approved. Zhejiang Province confirmed the increase of 2 million tons, Jiangsu Province confirmed the increase of 3 million tons, and Jiangxi, Anhui and Guangxi each confirmed the increase of 1 million tons. Generally speaking, the total new quota is relatively limited, and most of them are to deal with the goods which have not been cleared through customs in the early stage. There is no sign of relaxation in Australia’s coal import.

From the international coal price point of view, since China has strictly controlled the quantity of imported coal, the operating center of NEWC steam coal spot price in Newcastle port, Australia, has continued to fall from about 100 USD / T to 50 USD / T. Recently, the international coal market demand is good, and the international steam coal price has rebounded. The price increase of Richards port in South Africa is the most prominent, followed by the ARA three port coal price index in Europe, and the worst performance is the coal price index of Newcastle port in Australia. After the fluctuation of the composite exchange rate, the cci5500 imported coal price index, which is priced in RMB, also shows no sign of significant rise in the near future, which is not in line with the scenario of China’s liberalization of coal import. Therefore, the horizontal control policy of imported coal is still the main theme and will not constitute supply pressure.

Reduction of main capital positions

On the technical side, last week, the main steam coal 2101 contract did not effectively break through the resistance of the early high point. After a short run, the long short funds both reduced their positions and left the market, which led to the reduction of the disk volume and the reduction of the positions to the 40 day moving average. This week, the 20 day moving average showed that the steam coal futures are still in the bull market, but the volume and position growth is not big, and the rising momentum is still in the stage of accumulation. As the coastal coal price has entered the red area, the relevant departments have launched the response mechanism to suppress the abnormal fluctuation of coal price, and stressed that the coal price does not have a substantial rise foundation this winter, so the price rise of steam coal will not be a steep unilateral market. Combined with fundamental support factors, it is recommended to buy in batches every callback.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic polyester filament market overall maintained a small decline trend this week, among which polyester FDY and polyester POY began to stop falling and rebound in the middle of the week.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market from November 20 to 27, unit: yuan / ton

Products up and down from November 20, 2020 to November 27, 2020

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5406.67-5381.67 – 0.46% – 25.32%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5170.00-5128.33 – 0.81% – 27.2%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 6984.44 6912.22 – 1.03% – 20.33%

At the beginning of the week, driven by the raw material market, the production and sales of polyester filament took off. On the 25th, the production and sales of polyester filament were more than 300%. The willingness of downstream textile enterprises to copy the bottom increased. Some downstream factories replenished goods. The purchasing strength was generally larger than that in the earlier stage. The market trading atmosphere was hot, and the factory inventory pressure was also relieved. However, with the decline of crude oil, the weaving heat has declined, and the production and sales have declined. At present, the average production and sales of mainstream factories are around 60%. The overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 23-36 days, of which POY inventory is 6-13 days, FDY inventory is around 16-34 days, and DTY inventory is about 24-36 days. In terms of price, at present, the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have quoted polyester POY (150D / 48F) at 5050-5250 yuan / ton, polyester FDY (150D / 96F) at 5150-5450 yuan / ton, and polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) at 6800-7000 yuan / ton.

This week, crude oil continued to rise, cost support strengthened. As of November 25, the settlement price of WTI main contract of international crude oil was 45.71 USD / barrel, up 26.38% compared with the beginning of the month, while the settlement price of Brent main contract was 48.61 USD / barrel, up 26.84% compared with the beginning of the month. It has reached the highest level since March. On the one hand, the successive positive news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is beneficial to the supply expectation. PTA spot market price also showed a wave of rebound, as of November 27, the average market price was 3343 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.42%, and a year-on-year decrease of 30.90%.

Recent domestic PTA unit: 10000 tons / year

Change of enterprise name capacity device

Yangzi Petrochemical 35 will start maintenance in the afternoon of November 3, 2020, and the restart time is to be determined

Yadong Petrochemical 70 will start maintenance in the early morning of November 13, 2020, and will restart in the evening of November 27

Chuanneng chemical 100 will be overhauled on November 17, 2020, and will be restarted in the evening of November 23.

Zhongtai Petrochemical 120 will start maintenance for 2 months on September 30, 2020

PTA plant was restarted one after another to supply pressurization. The 1 million ton PTA plant of Sichuan Energy Investment Co., Ltd. was restarted in the evening of November 23; the 700000 ton PTA plant of Shanghai Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is planned to restart in the evening of November 27; the 1.2 million ton PTA plant of Sinopec is expected to restart by the end of this month, with the industry operating rate rising to more than 91%. Plant restart to accelerate the accumulation of inventory, surplus negative still inhibit PTA growth.

Near the end of November, the domestic textile terminal market continued to cool down, and the start-up rate of traditional low-season textile enterprises declined, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was reduced to below 86%. The polyester industry was ultimately high in production and sales, and lacked sustainability. According to China Textile City News, the current downstream fabric trade began to reduce orders, stop the situation. In the market, the curtain cloth and home decoration fabric with polyester filament as the main raw material are still insufficient compared with the previous best-selling seasons, and some small and medium-sized business operators’ counterpart merchants still place relatively limited orders. However, the order delivery batch sizes of various business outlets are mutual, but the overall market sales volume is still insufficient. It is expected that the transaction in the traditional market will shrink back, and the overall market transaction will show a small trend of shock.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the momentum of crude oil continued to rise is insufficient, PTA began to accelerate the accumulation of inventory at the end of November, and Fujian Baihong new production capacity is planned to be put into operation next month, resulting in increased supply pressure. In addition, the terminal textile into the traditional off-season, the new orders in the market are not good, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the price of polyester filament will be stable and weak in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of November 26, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 7766.67 yuan / ton, which was increased by 333 yuan / ton or 4.48% compared with the price on November 19; compared with the price on November 1, the average price of butanone increased by 1366.67 yuan / ton, or 21.35%.

Domestic and foreign trade supported the price of butanone broke 8000 yuan / ton

This month, the domestic butanone market in the early stage of a small shock, the overall steady rise. On the 21st and 22nd of last weekend, the ex factory offer price of butanone factory increased significantly by 300-500 yuan / ton. Then it entered this week. The inventory at the factory side was low, the number of new domestic trade orders was good, and the foreign trade market was smooth. The overall high-level and stable operation of butanone market was supported by the smooth operation of foreign trade market. At present, the quoted price of mainstream areas was around 7600-8200 yuan / T, and the on-site inventory was low. The new order this week 4. The average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 7766.67 yuan / ton as of November 26. Compared with the price on November 19, the average price of butanone increased by 333 yuan / ton, or 4.48%; compared with the price on November 1, the average price increased by 1366.67 yuan / ton, or 21.35%.

In the middle of November, the market continued to decline. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong market was 3233.33 yuan / ton on November 15, and 3080.00 yuan / ton on November 23, with a decrease of 4.74%. It rebounded on the 24th and rose by 1.95% in a single day. The quoted price was 3140.00 yuan / ton. On the 25th, the market continued to rise with a range of 50-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere was mild. At present, the mainstream transaction prices were mostly around 3100-3150 yuan / ton 。 The inventory of manufacturers has been released, and most of them are in the middle level.

Internationally, on November 25, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $45.71/barrel, up $0.80. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the main contract settlement price to 48.53 U.S. dollars / barrel, up 0.75 dollars. Oil prices continued to rise to an eight month high on Wednesday, mainly due to an unexpected drop in crude oil inventories last week and a boost in fuel demand after a boost in vaccines.

Downstream new single cut, butanone after the market or will be slightly loose

At present, the overall stock of butanone market is on the low side, and foreign trade orders can still support it. However, it is reported that the increase of domestic downstream new orders has decreased compared with the previous days. Therefore, the butanone datagrapher of the business society believes that the domestic butanone market may be affected by the decrease of demand in the short term, and the price may be slightly down, and more attention should be paid to raw materials and demand changes.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market was positive in the fourth week of November, and the spot prices of various brands increased significantly. As of November 25, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 9033.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.84% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of propylene upstream of PP, at the end of last month and the beginning of this month, the price of propylene went out of the sharp drop in October. In the second half of the month, the domestic propylene price increased significantly. According to the business agency data, the average price of propylene on November 24 was 7405.55 yuan / ton. At present, the operation rate of propylene producers is not high, and there are still many sets of production lines can not resume operation, the supply side is slightly tense. At present, the inventory of the manufacturer is controllable without pressure, and the shipment situation is relatively smooth. In terms of demand, the downstream industry has a good enthusiasm for taking goods, with higher production profits, and traders are following the trend, with strong trading volume. Overall, there are multiple favorable supports in the propylene market at present, and the propylene price is expected to continue to rise in the near future.

The current market of propylene is positive, which has certain support for the cost side of PP. The data monitored by the business agency shows that the recent price trend of PP (drawing) is better. In terms of demand, with the continuous rise of PP, the cost pressure of the plastic knitting industry compressed the profit space, and took goods to shrink. However, the overall order volume is acceptable, and the operating rate has a steady upward trend. The demand of injection molding downstream factories is large and the orders are strong. In terms of inventory, according to sources, PP producers had inventory of about 340000 tons in the third week of November, which was at the year’s low. Futures continued to rise in recent days, boosting the spot market confidence. PP is expected to continue the positive trend in the near future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of November 25, the mainstream offer of Z30S (fiber) of domestic manufacturers and traders was the same as that of drawing materials, and the price was about 9033.33 yuan / ton, which was 5.45% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month. Boosted by the rise of raw material propylene and futures, the market of fiber materials also went up in recent days, and the two barrels of oil fiber brand PP all rose to a certain extent. Fushun Petrochemical Z30S rose for a week, now reported 9050 yuan / ton. Jingmen Petrochemical fiber material increased steadily, now reported 8850 yuan / ton. The situation of downstream goods taking is fair, and the news of free trade agreement is favorable. It is expected that PP (fiber) will continue to be better in the near future.

PP meltblown material market recent shock finishing market, the overall price tends to stabilize. At present, the epidemic situation in China is generally stable. Recently, a small-scale rebound has occurred in some areas, and the demand has increased slightly. Some brands of melt blown materials have increased by about 100-200 yuan / ton in the near future. The reference price of y1500 of Maoming Petrochemical is 11000 yuan / ton, and the price of N95 grade polypropylene of some private enterprises is 9500 yuan / ton. The second outbreak trend of overseas epidemic is obvious, many countries announced to close the city again, and the non-woven fabric in the application of medical protection is sought after again. However, the domestic market has not changed much, the supply side of meltblown cloth and material manufacturing market is surplus, and the profit dilution is serious. Business agencies believe that the recent melt blown PP market support, due to the strength of the cost side.

Future forecast

PP analysts believe that: the fourth week of November domestic PP spot market is more positive. The upstream propylene market is strong and the price is rising, which supports the cost side of PP. While the fundamentals are positive, futures have been pulling up day after day, boosting the spot market. PP (PP) prices up and down. Downstream factory stock procurement is stable, and the delivery is fair. PP spot is expected to continue to strengthen in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, due to the strong support of the cost side, the ethyl acetate market continued to rise. As of November 24, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 6770 yuan / ton, up 2.85% compared with the beginning of the month and 9.86% higher than the same period of last month.

At present, the domestic ethyl acetate market continues to rise. Affected by the continuous increase of raw material acetic acid, the cost side support is good. In addition, some enterprises in East China have reduced the maintenance burden, and the situation of market supply exceeding demand has been effectively alleviated, and the enterprise quotation has been pushed up. At present, it is about 6800 yuan / ton in East China, 6700 yuan / ton in North China and 7350 yuan / ton in South China.

In terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market continued to rise, with strong domestic and export demand. In addition, some enterprises were short of maintenance, and the spot supply was in short supply. The price of acetic acid rose to the annual high. At present, the spot market of raw material corn is weak, and from the perspective of demand, liquor purchasing in downstream consumption is mainly required. Some enterprises mainly consume inventory when their units are shut down for maintenance, and the overall market traders are more bearish on the future market. At present, ethanol in East China is about 6775 yuan / ton.

The international market price of ethyl acetate has been rising steadily. The port price in European market is about 1300-1400 euro / ton, and the port price in North America is about 760 US dollars / ton.

According to the analysts of ethyl acetate of business club, the current spot supply of ethyl acetate Market is shrinking, and the contradiction between supply and demand has been solved to a certain extent. In addition, the high-level operation of raw material market has double advantages to support the stable operation of ethyl acetate Market in the short term.

The international crude oil rose sharply, but the weather turned cold, the domestic asphalt market demand weakened, and the domestic asphalt rose weakly. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, the asphalt price was reported at 2277 yuan / ton on November 20, 0.44% higher than that at the beginning of the week.

The overseas epidemic situation is still serious, and the international crude oil market demand is not good; however, there are also good news that OPEC will prolong the production reduction, the US shale oil production will decrease, and the development of new crown vaccine will be accelerated. The international crude oil price fluctuates upward, with WTI crude oil price increasing by 5.71% and Brent crude oil price increasing by 5.10% weekly.

Overall, the domestic asphalt market demand is weakening, and the market supply is at a high level. There is still demand for road construction in East China and central China, and the rigid demand for asphalt is relatively good; the terminal projects in South China and southwest China are relatively stable, and the rigid demand is released steadily; the terminal projects in Shandong and North China are mainly finished with rush work, which still has certain support for rigid demand; the rigid demand for asphalt in Northeast and Northwest China has basically ended, and the demand for asphalt is weak.

Domestic asphalt supply is at a high level, with a cumulative output of 26.95 million tons from January to October, an increase of 13% over the same period of last year. In November, the planned output of asphalt is 3.365 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 32.6%.

Business agency analysts believe that the international crude oil price has temporarily stabilized at US $40 / barrel, but the epidemic situation abroad is still serious. In the short term, the demand of international crude oil market will be poor, and the crude oil price will continue to be under pressure. As the weather turns cold, the terminal demand for asphalt is weakening, and the domestic asphalt price is expected to decline steadily.

1、 Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to keep stable at the bottom this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1750.00 yuan / ton, and that at the weekend was 1750.00 yuan / ton, with a rise and fall range of 0.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market performance of sodium metabisulfite market was stable. The market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 1650-1800 yuan / ton, and most prices were concentrated in 1700-1750 yuan / ton. Under the support of just need, enterprises mainly complete the orders of old customers, and the transaction of new orders is limited. (the above prices all refer to the external quotation of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact all manufacturers for details.).

Since the beginning of November, the price of domestic soda ash has decreased by 2.68%, the price of sulfur has increased by 1.06%, the cost of processing raw materials has dropped, and the market price of sodium metabisulfite has remained stable since the beginning of November.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency analysts believe that: the upstream raw material cost price will remain stable after a small drop, the raw material cost will fall, the downstream demand will be stable, and the market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to move forward steadily.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has fallen recently. On the 17th, the average price of ethylene was 766.00 US dollars / ton, and on the 19th was 770.25 US dollars / ton, up 0.55%. The current price is down 1.09% month on month, and the current price is 8.14% lower than last year.

In the near future, the overall market of ethylene in the external market shows a downward trend. Asian ethylene market prices rose, as of the 18th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at 850-860 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia closed at 785-795 US dollars / ton. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 18th, FD northwest Europe closed at 716-727 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 708-717 US dollars / ton. The ethylene price in the United States is stable. As of the 18th, the price is 446-456 US dollars / ton. At the beginning of November, the ethylene market in Europe and the United States has risen steadily. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market is general, and the market is rising slightly.

International: on November 18, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of main contracts rising by US $0.36 to US $42.01/barrel. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the main contract settlement price to 44.34 US dollars / barrel, up 0.59 US dollars. Oil prices closed higher on Wednesday, with markets hoping OPEC + would postpone its planned production increase, and Pfizer said its vaccine was more effective than previously reported. Recently, crude oil rose slightly, which supported the cost of ethylene, and the external market of ethylene rose.

Recently, the styrene market has fallen sharply. After the market soared, there was profit taking. Although the supply expectation was still weakening, there were plans for production reduction or parking in the downstream. There was a demand weakening expectation, and there was a bearish mentality in the market. The quotation of styrene in East China was lowered to around 8900 yuan / T, and it is expected that the market will continue to be high in the short term. No ethylene support.

In terms of crude oil, OPEC members are inclined to postpone the plan to increase daily crude oil production in January, and the international oil price rose to the highest level since early September on Wednesday. Therefore, data analysts of the business agency predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly rise next.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on November 17, the mainstream average price of domestic PVC was 7832.5 yuan / ton, up 2.05% compared with the previous day, 10.43% higher than the beginning of the month, 12.29% month on month, and 16.17% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

At the beginning of this week, PVC showed a strong pattern, with the mainstream prices rising significantly. On the 16th and 17th consecutive days, the prices increased by 100-350 yuan / ton, with a large increase. Some enterprises have now risen to 8000 yuan / ton, and there have been many price adjustments in one day. The low-end prices are rare, the trading center is moving up, and the market is also rising. The forward price has broken through the 7500 bottleneck and reached a new high. The shipping schedule of Formosa Plastics in December Price rise of 40-100 US dollars / ton and other factors, good futures price rise, PVC market continues to be good, forward and present prices rise hand in hand. At present, the shortage of goods in PVC spot market continues, the maintenance enterprises in the early stage recover, and the operating rate increases. However, the inventory continues to de trend, which shows that the support force of downstream demand is not retreating, and the off-season effect is lagging behind. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide is rising, and the strong support from the cost side jointly promotes the PVC market to go up. The manufacturers are calm and the price sentiment is still strong. At the same time, the psychology of “buying up but not buying down” is still in the market The overall market mentality is good, and there is still bullish expectation in the short term.

In terms of spot goods, domestic pvc5 type tourmaline’s mainstream quotation range is 7870-7940 yuan / ton. In East China, the mainstream of pvc5 type calcium carbide is around 7550-7650 yuan / ton; in Hebei Province, 7750-7800 yuan / ton is delivered; in Inner Mongolia, the price is increased by 7530-7570 yuan / ton, including tax; in Hangzhou, the price is 7920-8070 yuan / ton; in Changzhou, it is 7950-8050 yuan / ton, and the price is rising; in Changzhou, the mainstream is 7950-8050 yuan / ton, and the price is rising The mainstream price of materials is 8030-8100 yuan / ton, and the price is rising; the quotations from all over the country are rising steadily.

In terms of futures, PVC futures rose sharply to a new high recently, boosting the spot market. On the 17th, the main PVC futures contract 2101 opened at 7515 yuan / ton and closed at 7525 yuan / ton. Yesterday, the settlement price was 7420 yuan / ton, up 1.42%. The trading range was 7340-7530 yuan / ton, with 269968 transactions and 301296 positions.

Regional variety technology November 17

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 7950-8050 yuan / ton

Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide method: 8030-8100 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 7750-7800 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 7920-8070 yuan / ton

Upstream crude oil, on the 16th, the US WTI crude oil futures market price rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.34/barrel, up $1.21 or 3.02%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.82/barrel, up $1.04.

Ethylene, the recent external ethylene market is on the rise. On the 16th, the market demand of ethylene market in Europe was moderate. FD northwest Europe quoted 718-729 US dollars / ton, down 6 dollars / ton. CIF northwest Europe quoted 709-718 dollars / ton, down 4 dollars / ton. In recent years, the price of ethylene in Asia is mainly rising, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 845-855 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 770-780 US dollars / ton. The US ethylene market has been stable recently, with FD US $446-456/t, up US $44 / T. affected by the price rise of upstream crude oil, the ethylene market in the later stage may mainly rise.

Calcium carbide, in late January, calcium carbide Market small fluctuations rise. The price of raw materials in the upstream rose slightly, which supported the price of calcium carbide better. The shortage of PVC in the downstream was serious and the market rose sharply. The downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. Later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in mid November.

According to the data, from January to October, the construction area of real estate development enterprises in China was 88.11 million square meters, an increase of 3.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points lower than that in January September. Among them, the residential construction area was 6218.36 million square meters, an increase of 3.8%. The newly started area of houses was 1807.18 million square meters, a decrease of 2.6% and a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. Among them, the newly started residential area was 1324.81 million square meters, a decrease of 3.3%. The area of completed houses was 492.4 million square meters, down 9.2% and 2.4 percentage points. Among them, the completed residential area was 354.43 million square meters, down 7.9%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business agency believe that the current PVC spot market supply is still tight, and the inventory continues to decline, indicating that the support of downstream demand is not retreating, and the off-season effect is lagging behind. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide is rising, and the cost side is strongly supported, and the futures are pulling up. It is expected that the PVC market will be strong in the short term, and there is still a rising expectation.

Since April this year, domestic production and living conditions got rid of the impact of the epidemic and returned to normal, the overall price of steam coal futures has maintained a unilateral upward trend, with a relatively small range of correction in the middle. At present, the main 2101 contract price has reached 600 yuan / ton, which is on the high side compared with the same period in recent two years. Affected by the rapid resumption of work and production after the control of the domestic epidemic situation and a series of hedging policies, the average daily consumption level of key power plants since April this year is about 6% higher than that of the same period last year. Next, there will be a traditional peak demand in winter. We think that it is very likely that high demand and high price will coexist in this winter.

First of all, the supply increase brought about by supply guarantee may be limited due to the frequent occurrence of recent accidents. Due to the factors such as anti-corruption of Inner Mongolia coal mines and strict control of coal pipe tickets, the cumulative output of raw coal in China decreased slightly year on year from January to September, and the supply of producing areas continued to be tight. The price of steam coal rose rapidly in September, which attracted the attention of relevant departments. In addition, the upstream and downstream are about to enter the stage of winter storage and preparation. In October, the main production areas began to actively promote the work of ensuring supply, and the overall supply rose. Although in the process of ensuring supply and increasing production, the safety supervision of the main production areas has not been relaxed, but recently, serious coal mine safety accidents have occurred in Shaanxi and Shanxi. It can be predicted that after the occurrence of safety accidents in the production area, the safety supervision work in the production area may be further strengthened, and the coal mine tends to focus on ensuring safety at the end of the year, which will restrict the growth of production to a certain extent, and it is difficult for the supply guarantee work to bring about an obvious recovery of supply.

Secondly, the attitude of coal import control exceeded market expectations. Although the price of steam coal broke through 600 yuan / ton in September, the import policy will be relaxed appropriately after the coal price rises rapidly and enters the red range, so as to stabilize the fluctuation of coal price. However, the coal import control is still showing an increasingly strict trend. Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of coal import has continued to decline, and the cumulative import volume from January to October decreased by 8.3% year on year The sharp year-on-year contraction of export volume can be traced back to the trough period of global coal industry in 2015. Since late October, rumors of various import easing have been widely circulated in the market, but the trend of import tightening has not changed except for the release of part of the quota due to supply guarantee in Northeast China. According to the current import policy and the import volume in October, the total amount of coal import in China this year may be basically equivalent to that in 2018, and the supplementary role of imported resources to domestic supply is relatively limited.

Finally, the port inventory remained low and showed no signs of recovery. Due to the continuous tight supply of production areas and more profit in shipping this year, it was in the state of upside down for a long time. At the same time, the three derailment accidents of Daqin line also had a certain impact on the import of ports. The coal inventory of Bohai Rim port only accumulated significantly due to the stagnation of downstream demand during the most severe period of the epidemic situation. Most of the time, the inventory level was hovering on the low side for three years, At present, the coal inventory level of Bohai port has been close to the low level of four years. The coal inventory of jiangnei port also showed a similar trend. According to the data of coal lake, the coal inventory of jiangnei port has been in the downward channel since August. In the latest period, the coal inventory of jiangnei port 73 was 65.38 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.06 million tons, which was a new low level in recent three years.

Of course, in addition to the above supporting factors, we should also pay attention to the reality of high inventory at the power plant end. After the coal price rose rapidly in September due to the tight supply, the downstream power plants carried out inventory replenishment in advance in the off-season. As of October 15, the inventory of national key power plants has recovered to the high level in recent three years. The inventory has been at the level of one month ago. If combined with the situation of the number of anchor ships in Bohai Sea port and the coastal coal freight rate since the middle of October, it is expected that the inventory level of key power plants will continue to replenish in the past month and continue to be at a historical high. As the downstream power plants replenish the storage ahead of schedule in the off-season, to a certain extent, the demand for replenishment in peak season is overdrawn. Therefore, before the daily consumption of the downstream power plant is switched to the peak season mode and the inventory of the power plant is effectively removed, the price rise drive from the demand side is not sufficient, and the sustainability of the price rise is questionable.

Considering the current supply and demand factors of steam coal, we believe that although the current futures price has been at a high level, but as the downstream demand peak season is gradually approaching, the middle and upper stream factors such as frequent coal mine accidents, limited supply increment brought by import under the background of tight import and port coal inventory at a low level in recent three years have a negative impact on the price of steam coal With the formation of strong support, coal prices will remain relatively strong on the whole, but further breakthroughs in prices may have to wait until the demand turns to peak season mode and the high inventory of downstream power plants is effectively reduced. Therefore, it is expected that the main contract price of steam coal will mainly fluctuate at high level in the short term, and it is expected to usher in the high opportunity before breakthrough after the return of demand in peak season.