According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic MTBE market fluctuated and fell. In the first half of the month, it was still able to maintain its consolidation, and the price fell significantly in the second half. From December 1 to 29, the MTBE price fell from 6700 yuan/ton to 6087 yuan/ton, a 9.14% drop in the cycle and a 5.61% year-on-year increase.

At the beginning of the month, the crude oil continued to fall deeply, and the gasoline market also went down step by step. The market was pessimistic, and downstream businesses had low purchasing intentions. In the first ten days of this month, the domestic MTBE market was in shock and consolidation. Recently, the trend of crude oil was unstable, and there was still downward pressure, which had a negative impact on bulk commodities. In addition, the recent trend of gasoline is difficult to improve, and the downstream demand for raw material MTBE is limited. In the middle of this month, as the crude oil price rose again, the willingness of downstream procurement increased. In addition, due to the maintenance of some factories, the market supply was limited, supporting businesses’ willingness to keep up. The main reason for the price drop in late April was lower downstream demand. Affected by public health events in various regions, the number of people traveling is reduced, and the consumption of gasoline is reduced. In addition, some logistics and transportation are limited. The overall market attention is low, and the sales of merchants are blocked. Therefore, they have no choice but to adjust step by step. The price once fell to the low level at the end of January this year. In addition to the low demand, as some manufacturers such as Debao Road, Chengtai New Energy and Xinxin Park have started construction, the supply has increased, which also puts some pressure on the market.

In terms of cost, on December 29, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil of the business community was $79.53 per barrel, down – 1.27% compared with December 1 ($80.55 per barrel). Since December, oil prices have continued to fall, recording a decline in six trading days. WTI and Brent crude oil both fell by about $10. The results of the OPEC meeting of oil producing countries were released at the beginning of this month, which failed to further reduce production; As well as the EU’s oil price limit policy for Russian seaborne oil has been implemented, but in the short term, it is virtually non-existent. The oil price fell to the annual low against the background of demand depression at the far end. It has completely returned to the level before the Russian Ukrainian conflict. The domestic oil industry chain MTBE product market was affected by the market shock and fell.

On the demand side, due to the impact of public health events in various regions, logistics and transportation are limited, downstream demand is also low, and the overall market demand is weak. Near the end of the month, the market demand is difficult to increase significantly. As people travel less, gasoline sales turn downward, and its own sales are sluggish, the demand for MTBE as an additive has obviously decreased.

In terms of external market, as of the closing of December 28, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market had risen by 0.50 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 880.49-882.49 US dollars/ton. The closing price of European MTBE market rose by 35 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at 1048.99-1049.49 dollars/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market rose by 1.35 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf price closed at 937.76-938.11 US dollars/ton (264.16-264.26 US cents/gallon).

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Ups and downs

Asia/ FOB Singapore/ 880.49-882.49 USD/ton./0.5 USD/ton

Europe/ FOB ARA./ 1048.99-1049.49 USD/ton./35 USD/ton

United States/ FOB Bay/ 937.76-938.11 USD/ton./1.35 USD/ton

It is predicted that in the near future, due to the low demand around the country, merchants’ sales are blocked and prices are falling step by step. At the same time, near the end of the month, the market demand is still difficult to improve significantly. MTBE analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market is sluggish in the short term.

DOTP price consolidation this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 26, the average DOTP price was 9962.50 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the average price of 9900 yuan/ton on December 18. Weak demand for cost consolidation and consolidation of DOTP price.

Raw material price consolidation this week

According to the data of the business association; As of December 26, the price of isooctanol was 9833.33 yuan/ton, up 1.72% from 9666.67 yuan/ton on December 18. The effect of easing epidemic prevention and control was less than expected, the price of isooctanol was consolidated, the cost of DOTP was adjusted by shocks, and the momentum for DOTP to rise remained.

According to the data of the business community, as of December 26, the PTA price was 5541.82 yuan/ton, up 3.78% from the price of 5340 yuan/ton on December 18. International crude oil prices rose in shock, PTA costs rose, PTA demand remained stable, and PTA prices rose in shock.

Future market expectation

Analysts of DOTP data from the business association believe that the price of plasticizer DOTP raw materials, such as isooctanol and PTA, rose sharply this week, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials rose. On the whole, the demand for DOTP cost rise was less than expected, DOTP prices were consolidated, and it was expected that DOTP would become stable in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the hydrogen peroxide market fell steadily in December, and the market continued to weaken. At the beginning of the month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 766 yuan/ton. On the 21st, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 743 yuan/ton, down 3.04%.

Poor terminal demand Hydrogen peroxide market continues to decline

Since December, the operating rate of hydrogen peroxide terminal printing, paper industry and other industries has declined, and the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide has declined. In addition, the cost of logistics and transportation has increased. The domestic hydrogen peroxide market has been flat. The hydrogen peroxide market continues to decline in a weak way, mainly by more than 3%, and the mainstream quotation has dropped to 740 yuan/ton.

In the middle and late ten days, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers was weak and stable, and the price of hydrogen peroxide in some regions decreased slightly by about 20 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, an hydrogen peroxide analyst from the business community, believes that: Lido is the leading force, and the future weakness of hydrogen peroxide market is lower.

Market analysis this week

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of the 19th, the average price in the domestic market was 22333.33 yuan/ton. The magnesium market was cold, and the price of magnesium ingots was weak. There are few rainy orders, and many factories have made weak adjustment in their quotations. Some manufacturers said that with the support of raw coal and other cost prices, magnesium prices may fall to the bottom.

Raw materials

The average market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 8178.57 yuan/ton, which is rising steadily. In January, the steel bidding was launched in advance, which released the market demand. Most suppliers set prices. At the same time, the inventory resources were relatively limited, and the short-term counter market was operating steadily.

In terms of coal, the price of peat in Fugu market kept stable, the price of lump coal in some coal mines rose slightly, the production and sales of peat were balanced, and the inventory was slowly digested.

Supply side

As the price of magnesium ingots continues to decline, the contradiction between supply and demand in the magnesium market has become increasingly prominent. Some magnesium plants have been forced to actively reduce production due to the tight capital chain and serious losses. Nitrogen has little impact on the current overall market pattern.

Future market forecast

As a whole, the magnesium ingot market is in the downward channel, with unbalanced supply and demand, and a strong bearish sentiment in the market. Although cost support slows down the decline of magnesium price, the overall situation is difficult to reverse. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingots will continue to decline in the short term.

Zinc price fell in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the zinc price was 24276 yuan/ton as of December 19, down 3.56% from 25172 yuan/ton on December 11. The risk of economic recession has intensified, and the demand for increased inventories in the zinc market has not recovered as expected. This week, the zinc price fell in shock.

Low level rise of zinc ingot inventory

It can be seen from the trend chart of zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market that the zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market increased slightly this week, but the overall low level of inventory was adjusted, the supply of zinc ingot increased, and the upward momentum of zinc ingot weakened.

Increased risk of economic recession

In the international market, the Federal Reserve released a hawkish signal while reducing the rate increase. The Federal Reserve decided to continue to raise interest rates, raising the target range of the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to between 4.25% and 4.50%. The optimistic expectation of the market was frustrated, and the pessimism of economic recession spread.

In the domestic market, in November, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry was 48.0%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, lower than the critical point. In November, the domestic economy lost more momentum, factory output slowed down, retail sales continued to decline, all of which failed to meet expectations. The impact of the change in prevention and control measures on the economic recovery was less than expected, the industrial side maintained the supply increase and demand decrease, and the downward pressure on the zinc market increased.

Future market forecast

According to the data analysts of the business community; The Federal Reserve reduced the rate increase, but the rate increase remained unchanged. The pessimism of economic recession spread in the international market, and domestic prevention and control measures changed, but the macroeconomic recovery was less than expected. To sum up, the supply increase and demand recovery in the zinc market are not as good as expected, and the zinc price is expected to fall in shock.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 17, the price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, was 172000 yuan/ton. The lithium iron phosphate market was operating steadily, with no significant change in price and stable operating rate. The mainstream price range was about 172000 yuan/ton. The main contract customers did not receive new orders.

This week, the operation of lithium iron phosphate was stable. The price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, was 172000 yuan/ton. The downstream just needed to purchase, and the logistics was slow. In the short term, the previous trend was maintained. The manufacturer’s supply of goods was only for old customers, but the number of new customers was limited.

Chemical commodity index: On December 16, the chemical index was 930 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 33.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 55.52% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

Analysts of LiFePO4 from the business community believe that the market of LiFePO4 is mainly stable.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the first grade industrial potassium nitrate in Shanxi was 5875.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 5850.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 0.43%. The current price fell 0.85% year on year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market fell this week. From the figure above, we can see that the recent potassium nitrate market fluctuated slightly. This week, the market was volatile and consolidated. The supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal, and the market price of potassium chloride fluctuates and consolidates. Border trade orders have not yet been fully determined, and downstream procurement remains just in demand. The market turnover is light, and the potassium nitrate market is declining. According to the statistics of the business society, the domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 5600-5900 yuan/ton this week (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation varies according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is stable. The potash fertilizer market fluctuated slightly. It is reported that new orders for border trade may have been signed, but the specific amount has not been determined. 62% of Yingkou Port’s white potassium is quoted at 3700-3750 yuan/ton, 62% of Zhanjiang Port’s white potassium is 3680-3700 yuan/ton, and 62% of Fangcheng Port’s white potassium is 3680-3700 yuan/ton.

Recently, the potassium chloride market has been consolidated at a high level, and the cost support is fair. The demand of downstream factories is average. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will fall mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

Price trend

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, the domestic PC market was in shock and deadlock in the first ten days of December, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell with each other. As of December 12, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business cooperatives was about 17783.33 yuan/ton, up or down by -0.74% compared with the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the figure above that the recent bisphenol A market has fallen continuously, with the price falling below 10000 yuan/ton to a two-year low. With the pressure of rising raw material costs, the bisphenol A factory has gradually entered a loss state, but the downstream demand side has continued to decline, and the negotiation atmosphere is empty. It is expected that the decline will slow down due to cost support in the short term, and we still need to pay attention to the factory offer and demand fluctuation.

Supply: Last week, the PC capacity utilization rate was sideways, and the total load of domestic PC enterprises was about 50%. There are many inspections at the end of the year in the industry, but the resumption of work next week is expected to increase, and the supply side pressure is expected to rise. The flow of goods in the market is tepid, and enterprises and merchants are cautious.

Demand: PC terminal enterprises started at an average position last week, and they just need to maintain production after receiving goods. The wait-and-see attitude of the operators is heavy, and the actual orders are mainly scattered.

Future market forecast

Last week, the PC market fluctuated, the upstream bisphenol A was weak and difficult to change, and the support for PC cost collapsed. The load of domestic polymerization plants is horizontal, and the pressure at the supply end remains. On the whole, the market supply and demand game is expected to turn to weak consolidation and operation due to the supply side increment in the near future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, on the 13th, the average price of nickel in the spot market was 230,100 yuan/ton, up 2.53% from the previous trading day, or 57.53% year on year.

US stocks rose, with Lonnie closing 1.96% higher overnight; The import window of electrolytic nickel is closed, and domestic spot goods are tight. Since this year, domestic nickel inventory has been hovering at a low level, which has been a strong support for nickel price. However, the terminals that had dragged down the nickel price had also improved. The price of stainless steel stabilized and recovered, driving the return of production profits. The purchase of ferronickel increased, which supported the nickel price. In addition, Indonesian tariffs may be introduced to support nickel prices, but high nickel prices restrain demand, and nickel prices are expected to maintain a strong trend of shock.

Trade name: isopropanol

Latest price on December 12: 6800 yuan/ton

Key points for analysis: On December 12, the domestic isopropyl alcohol market rose steadily. At present, the market is general, the raw material acetone market is in a high position, and the raw material is still supported. The price in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is temporarily stable, and most of the isopropanol market quotations are about 7000 yuan/ton. Low prices rose in Shandong, and most of the isopropanol market quotations were about 6600-6900 yuan/ton. On the whole, the trading atmosphere in the domestic market is general, the operators are more cautious, and the traders remain on the sidelines.

Forecast: In the short term, the price of isopropanol is relatively strong.