The mainstream ex factory price of urea rose first and then fell this month: the quotation first rose from 2644.00 yuan / ton on February 1 to 2700.00 yuan / ton on February 11, up 56 yuan / ton, up 2.12%, and then fell to 2662.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 1.41%, up 21.55% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. There is still a downward trend at the end of the month.

On February 24, the urea commodity index was 123.91, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.29% from the highest point of 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 122.86% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In February, the price of urea rose slightly, with the highest decline of 1.33% in a single week.

The upstream support weakened, the supply of chemical fertilizer remained stable, and the price of urea fell

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly as a whole this month: the price of liquefied natural gas rose sharply, and the quotation increased from 3866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7652.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 97.90%, an increase of 160.86% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of thermal coal fell sharply this month. The quotation fell from 1167.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 22.91%, up 54.44% year-on-year compared with the same period last year.

The price of liquid ammonia fluctuated and rose. The quotation increased from 4443.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 4503.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.35%, and a year-on-year increase of 34.43% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose first and then fell this month. The quotation increased from 10433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 12333.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 18.21%.

。 From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is wait-and-see, and industrial demand is enhanced. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer use has entered the peak season, but the national development and Reform Commission emphasizes the work of ensuring the supply and stabilizing the price of chemical fertilizer. The price of urea has fallen slightly recently. Affected by the rise or fall of buying, dealers are not active in taking goods, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. After the Winter Olympics, the compound fertilizer plant and plate plant will gradually resume work, and the bargain hunting will be followed up. After a sharp rise in the market price of melamine in the downstream, it fell slightly, weakening the enthusiasm for urea procurement. From the perspective of supply: at present, the daily output of urea is more than 150000 tons, and the supply is sufficient.

The upstream support is weakened, the downstream demand is enhanced, and the supply and price of urea are mainly guaranteed

In the middle and early days of March, the urea market may fluctuate slightly and fall, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of business society believe that the recent upstream cost support is general, the downstream demand increases, the urea supply is sufficient, the supply of chemical fertilizer is mainly guaranteed and the price is stable, and the urea fluctuates slightly in the future.

Trade name: styrene butadiene rubber 1502

Latest price (February 24): 12450 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber was 12450 yuan / ton on Thursday, a slight decrease of 0.07% compared with the previous day. The start-up of styrene butadiene rubber plant decreased slightly, but the overall supply was sufficient; After the festival, the price of international crude oil and raw material butadiene / styrene rebounded, with cost support; On Thursday, the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber was stable, dominated by small market transactions, the traders’ offer was slightly adjusted, and the high styrene butadiene price was reduced. According to the monitoring of business agency, the mainstream offer in the domestic styrene butadiene rubber market was around 12200 ~ 12700 yuan / ton on the 24th.

Future forecast: on the one hand, the raw material butadiene is higher than that before the festival, on the other hand, the growth rate of downstream operation after the festival is not ideal, coupled with the sharp fluctuation of international crude oil, the price of styrene butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate widely.

Trade name: polybutadiene rubber BR9000

Latest price (February 23): 13800 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, as of February 23, the domestic price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 13800 yuan / ton, down 0.5% from the previous day; The ex factory price of the main suppliers of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was stable. The ex factory price of Daqing and Jinzhou Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company was 13700 yuan / ton, and the price of northeast warehouse was increased; After the festival, the price of raw butadiene continued to rise, supported by the cost side. However, the downstream demand is weak, the offer of merchants is slightly reduced by 50 ~ 100 yuan / ton, and there are 13250 ~ 13950 yuan / ton in Qilu, Dushanzi and Zhenhua Shunding markets in East China.

Future forecast: the international crude oil fluctuates widely and the price and cost of raw butadiene support, but the downstream demand is weak at present. It is expected that the butadiene rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

Trade name: yellow phosphorus

Latest price February 22: 34500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market moved upward on February 22. The overall market trading situation is acceptable, and the spot of yellow phosphorus market is tight. There are many downstream inquiries, and enterprises are reluctant to sell. Yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly issue early orders, and the transaction price of new orders is higher.

The price of yellow phosphorus is expected to be strong in the short term.

Commodity name: DMF latest price (February 21): 16000.00 yuan / ton

The price of DMF has declined, and the focus of negotiation is low. Compared with the same period last week, the price of DMF has declined slightly, and the mainstream price is about 16000 yuan / ton. At present, the manufacturer runs at a high price, and the overall market is stable. At present, there is no pressure on inventory, and the downstream follows up the purchase.

Future forecast: it is expected that the DMF market will be dominated by weak operation in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the market trend of PP fell in mid February, and the spot prices of various brands decreased by a narrow margin. As of February 18, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8500 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 0.95% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream propylene, the decline in the domestic propylene market narrowed this week, the upstream crude oil fluctuated strongly, and the cost side support was acceptable. At the weekend, the demand for resumption of work in the downstream basically returned to normal, the cost and demand remained stable as a whole, and the propylene market stabilized and consolidated. The propylene market is expected to further push up slightly.

The price of upstream propylene fell, while that of dynamic coal continued to fall this week. The international crude oil was generally strong and the PP cost support was general. In terms of supply, the supply of PP was abundant this week, and the operating rate of the industry was high and stable. Under the high load of petrochemical plant, the storage position of two barrels of oil depot is on the high side, and the inventory pressure of the middle reaches society also increases. In terms of demand, the resumption of work of terminal enterprises has increased after the Lantern Festival, but there is no large order preparation operation on the whole. The buyer’s mentality is empty, and the demand tends to just need to maintain production, which has a certain drag on the spot price. Merchants hold more goods and have poor confidence in offering, and gradually give up profits.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of February 18, the spot price trend of domestic fiber PP also rose. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8433.33 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 0.40% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of – 2.68% year-on-year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber material have a poor resumption of work, and the demand is also lagging behind. The orders of terminal enterprises have weakened, the upstream and downstream loads of the industrial chain still need to be improved, and the demand transmission will take time. Under the pressure of the continuous accumulation of stock, it is expected that the fiber material market may be under pressure and weaken.

In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market rose after the festival. As of January 18, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business society was about 9650 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.76% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. Recent health events in various countries are still not optimistic. The number of local diagnoses in some regions of China has increased, which has a pull on the spot market of melt blown cloth. However, the supply of meltblown materials in the site is sufficient, and the saturation pattern of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises remains unchanged. After the holiday, the cost side is good, and there is oversupply in some parts of the market. It is expected that the melt blown material may operate weakly in the short term.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business agency believe that: in mid February, the domestic polypropylene market fell, mobile coal continued to fall, while propylene fell but narrowed, the trend of crude oil was strong and volatile, and the cost side support was generally acceptable. The resumption of work of terminal enterprises is slow, the expansion of demand is poor, and the stock of enterprises and businesses is accumulated. It is expected that the PP market may continue to be dominated by weak operation due to supply pressure in the short term.

On February 17, the adipic acid Market in East China operated steadily, and some markets loosened slightly, with a small decline. The manufacturers still generally supported the price, the dealer’s offer was still high, and the market transaction was OK. The price of pure benzene is high, and the upstream cost support is obvious. The mainstream prices in today’s market are: the acceptance price of Shandong source of goods is 14000-14200 yuan / ton, and the acceptance price of Jiangsu source of goods is 14100-14300 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the adipic acid market is expected to stabilize at a high level in the near future.

Trade name: titanium concentrate

Latest price February 16: 2385 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis on February 16, the market price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area was basically stable. The market situation of titanium ore is acceptable, the supply of goods in China mineral market is relatively tight, and the downstream titanium dioxide enterprise market mainly purchases on demand. At present, the titanium ore market is mainly wait-and-see, manufacturers send more early orders, and the overall market maintains stable operation.

Forecast: the price of titanium concentrate will remain stable in the short term.

Trade name: PET latest price (February 15): 8200.00 yuan / ton

As of February 15, the average price of PET water bottle manufacturers was 8200 yuan / ton, the overall market was strong, the focus of negotiation was stable, the price trend was stable, and returned after the festival. The enthusiasm of the downstream was general, the purchase was just needed, the price of PTA in the upstream was stable, and the supply side was normal.

Pet market is expected to be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (February 14): 8900 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8900 yuan / ton on February 14, down 0.22% from the previous working day, and the price of pvc5 calcium carbide method remained around 8650-9200 yuan / ton. The decline of futures prices has driven the focus of the spot market to move down, the quotation of enterprises has been reduced by 100-200 yuan / ton, the high price transaction is not smooth, the actual transaction has made more profits, and the trading atmosphere has weakened.

At present, the festive atmosphere has not subsided, the downstream market has not fully recovered, the social inventory is still in a positive accumulation, the fundamentals are weak, and the PVC market is expected to operate stably and weakly.