1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 5850 yuan/ton. In April, the white carbon black market mainly maintained stable operation, with a narrow range of strong prices. The overall white carbon black market price remained stable, with market supply and demand balance as the main focus, stable negotiation focus, and normal inventory consumption. Currently, the mainstream market price is maintained at around 6000 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

In April, the stable operation of the white carbon black market was the main focus, with limited price fluctuations. The mainstream price continued to remain around 6000 yuan/ton. Currently, upstream cost support is limited, and downstream demand is average. The main focus is on rigid procurement, with small order contract customers in the future.

Chemical index: On April 28th, the chemical index was 868 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.00% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 45.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that currently, downstream demand is average, and upstream cost support is weak. It is expected that the mainstream price will be around 6000 yuan/ton in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the PVC spot market has been fluctuating this week. On Monday, the average domestic PVC price was 5564 yuan/ton, and on Sunday it was 5566 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.04% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC spot market is operating in a volatile manner. As the May Day holiday approaches, the trading situation on the market is slightly average, with slight fluctuations in market prices. The quotes from manufacturers are generally stable, while the prices from traders are relatively flexible. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The enthusiasm for stocking up before holidays is average, and the focus is still on basic needs. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5520-5750 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed higher on April 26th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $83.85 per barrel, an increase of $0.28 or 0.3%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at 88.21 US dollars per barrel, with an increase of 0.44 US dollars or 0.5%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have decreased. On Monday, the average price of domestic calcium carbide was 3000 yuan/ton, and on Sunday, the average price was 2883.33 yuan/ton. The weekly price has decreased by 3.89%. The downstream procurement performance is average, and the process of removing calcium carbide inventory is slow.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the PVC spot market has been volatile this week. Upstream carbide prices have been lowered, resulting in weak cost support. The performance of PVC in both markets is average, with little change on the market and average market confidence. It is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate within the range in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 25th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 107200.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% compared to last Thursday’s price.

Recently, the industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has been fluctuating and slightly rising. Recently, the price of spodumene concentrate has remained stable, while the price of upstream lithium carbonate has remained stable with a downward trend. The impact on cost is limited, and the supply side is operating at a low level. Manufacturers are mainly maintaining long-term contracts. The demand for high nickel downstream is steadily increasing, and the new energy and energy storage market is performing well. Prior to the holiday, there has been an increase in downstream hard demand stocking, and market participants are mostly wait-and-see. Enterprises can adjust their prices flexibly according to their own situation, resulting in narrow market fluctuations.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on April 24th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 109000.00, an increase of 1.87% compared to April 1st (107000.00). Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has remained stable and slightly declined, providing moderate support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Hydroxide, as downstream pre holiday stocking gradually approaches its end, the market is mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that the lithium hydroxide market may undergo a narrow adjustment in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to the trend of upstream lithium carbonate.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 24, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7866 yuan/ton. Compared with April 14 (reference price of n-butanol was 7933 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in late April, the domestic Shandong region’s n-butanol market showed an overall range adjustment operation, and the market price of n-butanol in Shandong remained fluctuating in the range of 7700-7900 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall supply and demand of the domestic n-butanol market has been in a slight adjustment state, with a slight game between supply and demand. Therefore, the n-butanol market industry has also made slight adjustments with changes in the transmission between supply and demand, with an adjustment range of about 50-100 yuan/ton.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ April 24th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ 7700-7900

North China region/ N-butanol/ 7950-8050

South China region/ N-butanol/ 8300-8400

East China region/ N-butanol/ 8200-8300

Future analysis

At present, the spot supply of n-butanol in the market is stable, and downstream users are mainly purchasing at low prices for basic needs. According to the n-butanol data analyst of Business Society, in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Recently, the polyethylene glycol market has been operating steadily. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 23, the average quoted price of polyethylene glycol 400 by enterprises was 7750.00 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to last Tuesday’s price.

Recently, the raw material ethylene oxide has been operating steadily at a high level, with stable cost support. Downstream industries such as cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, chemical fibers, rubber, plastics, etc. have stocked up on demand before holidays, and market transactions have been orderly. The industry is mainly wait-and-see, and the market atmosphere is stable.

Upstream ethylene oxide: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on April 22, the reference price of ethylene oxide was 7000.00, which was unchanged from April 1. The downward transmission of costs was not smooth, and the price of ethylene oxide remained stable, providing stable support for the polyethylene glycol market.

Upstream ethylene glycol: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of ethylene glycol on April 22 was 4490.00, a decrease of 0.52% compared to April 1 (4513.33). Since April, ethylene glycol has been operating weakly and with limited support for the polyethylene glycol market.

According to polyethylene glycol analysts from Business Society, the short-term raw material ethylene oxide may continue to affect the market. Downstream orderly stocking before the holiday is expected, and the market atmosphere is still good. It is expected that polyethylene glycol prices will remain stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

Last week, the domestic EVA market continued to be weak, with spot prices slightly reduced. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 22, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11533.33 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -3.35% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market operated weakly last week, and the supply side load of domestic EVA enterprises continued to decrease to around 74%. Due to the maintenance of some petrochemical plants in the early stage, the market supply has decreased narrowly. However, due to the wavering market confidence, some auction transaction prices fell, and manufacturers’ pricing was steadily lowered. EVA suppliers have loosened their support for spot goods.

From the demand side perspective, last week’s EVA terminal enterprises started production steadily with little movement, and their stocking situation tended to lag behind. The logic of purchasing and consumption for just in need remained unchanged. Among them, there are very few new orders for traditional downstream areas such as foam shoe materials and cables and wires. Merchants are affected by the downward market trend, resulting in an increase in actual orders, discounts, and transactions. Overall, the demand side has poor support for EVA.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, last week’s EVA prices continued to be weak. The changes in the market for raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate are limited, and the support for the EVA market is mediocre. The industry load has slightly declined, and the ex factory prices of petrochemical plants have loosened narrowly. The overall development of the demand side is poor, dragging market momentum. It is expected that the spot price of EVA will remain weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 796 yuan/ton on April 15th, and 790 yuan/ton on April 19th. This week, the price of domestic ammonium sulfate market decreased by 0.84%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price slightly declined. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises mainly focus on procurement in demand, and the trading atmosphere is flat. The export market is still weak and difficult to improve in the short term. This week, urea prices have risen, but after the increase, the market has a resistance to high prices, and new transactions are limited, which has a certain impact on ammonium sulfate. As of April 19th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei region is around 750-790 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 790-810 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of ammonium sulfate has slightly fallen recently. The export market is sluggish, and there is currently no positive news in the market due to downstream demand for procurement. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate price will mainly consolidate and operate within a narrow range.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the prices of industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate have shown a delayed trend this week, with overall stability and small fluctuations. On April 18, 2024, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 109000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the average price of 108800 yuan/ton on April 14. On April 18th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 115800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% compared to the average price of 116800 yuan/ton on April 14th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate has remained stable and fluctuated slightly this week, with the spot price difference between industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate continuously widening. In terms of supply, the production recovery and profit margin restoration of lithium salt enterprises after maintenance have led to a continuous increase in lithium carbonate production. However, it is understood that some lithium salt companies have reported that their supply in April has already been fully pre-sale with long orders and no discount coefficient. Currently, there is no excess supply for individual sales, so the liquidity of lithium carbonate spot is still relatively tight.

In terms of demand, downstream positive electrode enterprises purchase low-priced goods from a small number of lithium salt enterprises and the trading market to supplement the supply of scattered orders outside the long-term contract. However, their wait-and-see sentiment rises as prices fall, and there has been no replenishment action by positive electrode enterprises in the spot market. Recently, the market has entered the signing of long-term orders in May, with a slight decrease in prices, in order to purchase more low-priced goods from the trading market to supplement supply. However, the purchasing price from lithium salt enterprises remains high.

The lithium hydroxide market has fluctuated and risen narrowly. Recently, the prices of spodumene concentrate have remained stable and the prices of lithium carbonate have fluctuated slightly. Cost support is relatively stable, and the inventory of finished products on the supply side is in the middle position. The downstream high nickel production is extremely stable, with an increase in production. The market atmosphere is active, and the demand side has increased to support the market’s price boosting mentality. However, downstream buyers of high priced raw materials are still cautious, and the lithium hydroxide market is mainly adjusting narrowly.

The price of downstream lithium iron phosphate has slightly declined, as lithium iron phosphate enterprises tend to negotiate orders based on actual discounts on the price of lithium carbonate purchased. Therefore, recently, with the slight decrease in the price of battery grade lithium carbonate, the price of lithium iron phosphate has loosened and decreased.

In terms of futures, the price of lithium carbonate futures continues to fluctuate, and the total position continues to decline. On April 18th, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 109900 yuan/ton, the closing price was 108400 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 111850 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.73%. The transaction volume was 131600 lots and the position was 174354 lots.

Lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society believe that as the May Day holiday approaches, downstream markets will gradually increase their demand for raw material reserves. Downstream buyers mainly buy from the trade market on dips, and the purchase price of lithium salt plants remains high. The price difference between industrial carbon and electric carbon continues to widen, which continues to benefit the demand for electric carbon. It is expected that the short-term spot price of lithium carbonate will mainly operate steadily.

Technical prediction of asphalt market: it will continue to operate at a high level

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since March 31, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 28.30%.

At present, the price of asphalt is rising, but it is still at a historically low level, with monitoring levels of one year, two years, and three years. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average asphalt price in the past three years is 3928.83 yuan/kg, with a median value of 4120.17 yuan/kg, a minimum value of 3421 yuan/kg, and a maximum value of 4819.33 yuan/kg. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 245.57 yuan/kg, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -1152.76 yuan/kg.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 8th to 17th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province increased from 3629 yuan/ton to 3699 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.93%, a month on month increase of 2.98%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.64%. Driven by the rise of international crude oil, cost support has strengthened, and asphalt spot prices continue to rise. The demand for spot resources has differentiated, with the temperature in the northern region recovering slowly and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm being limited; The widespread rainfall in the south has hindered the demand for essential goods, and the market transaction atmosphere is average. In the short term, the spot price of asphalt remains relatively strong, with a focus on strength in the north and weakness in the south for the time being.

On the supply side, the main production enterprises stabilized production after resuming production in April, driving a slight increase in asphalt production in Shandong region, and the overall supply remains abundant; The main refinery in Xinjiang, Ke Petrochemical, saw a slight increase, driving a slight increase in overall supply. There is a bearish impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices are fluctuating at high levels, and in the short term, oil prices will continue to operate at high levels. It is not ruled out that there is a possibility of continued upward trend after later adjustments, mainly due to the unresolved supply side risks and the difficulty in cooling geopolitical conflicts. Moreover, the arrival of the peak driving season in the United States will stimulate gasoline demand. Both supply and demand will provide strong support for oil prices. As of April 17th, Brent crude oil futures closed slightly lower, with the settlement price of the main contract at $90.02 per barrel, a decrease of $0.08.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt varies slightly in different regions. In the northern region, demand for asphalt is slowly recovering, with limited low-priced resources and some shipments being supported. In the southern region, there are mostly cloudy and rainy weather, which hinders demand for asphalt. There is mainly a small amount of speculative low-priced demand. The demand side of the asphalt market has a mixed impact.

As of the close of April 17th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has fallen. The main asphalt contract 2406 opened at 3788 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3797 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3756 yuan/ton. It closed at 3768 yuan/ton in the last trading day, a decrease of 36% compared to the previous settlement day, a decrease of 0.95%. The trading volume was 127739 lots, and the position was 227515 lots, with a daily increase of -1588.

In the future market forecast, international crude oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and asphalt supply remains abundant, with slight differences in demand between the north and south. The asphalt analyst of Business Society predicts that the short-term domestic asphalt market situation will be mainly focused on consolidation and observation.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 16th, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 36000 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week.

In terms of cost

Pure benzene: The domestic price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On April 16th, the price of pure benzene was 8707 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from last week. The trading volume in the petroleum benzene market is flat. The holding party is reluctant to sell at a low price, while the demand side continues to be bearish and discusses differences. Most refineries in Shandong have been experiencing continuous poor shipments, and today’s prices continue to decline, with small orders in demand being sold.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly increased this week. On April 16th, the price of nitric acid was 1753 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.93% compared to last week. The quotation for concentrated nitric acid has increased, and currently there are more inquiries in the nitric acid market. Supported by costs, the price of nitric acid has risen, and the market transaction atmosphere is positive.

In terms of demand

There is currently no significant rebound in market demand, and customers with demand for dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products are in urgent need of purchasing. Downstream trading is not active.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the shipment of meta phenylenediamine remains stable, mainly based on orders, with a focus on market transactions in the later stage. It is expected that the price of meta phenylenediamine will remain stable.