1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market declined as a whole this week. As of November 28, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 11933.33 yuan / ton, down 4.79% from the average price of 12533.33 yuan / ton on November 22 and 28.40% from the same period last month.

On November 28, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 112.42, unchanged from yesterday, 28.39% lower than the highest point 157.00 in the cycle (2021-10-28), and 119.66% higher than the lowest point 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started steadily this week. International crude oil fell sharply and domestic chemical industry was dominated by weakness; The market price of unsaturated resin in the downstream fell, mainly in need of purchase. As of the 28th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 115000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 11500 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 11500 yuan / ton.

Upstream, pure benzene fell continuously this week. The average price of pure benzene was 6650.00 yuan / ton on November 28 and 6930.00 yuan / ton on November 22, a decrease of 4.04%. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong fell, from 6940.00 yuan / ton on November 28 to 7000.00 yuan / ton on November 22, a decrease of 0.86%. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 5980.00 yuan / ton as of November 28.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 47th week of 2021 (11.22-11.26), there are 26 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were chlorinated paraffin (7.46%), propylene oxide (4.66%) and hydrogen peroxide (3.99%). A total of 49 commodities fell month on month, and 9 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 8.6% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the first three declines were isobutyraldehyde (- 13.03%), aniline (- 12.14%) and sulfuric acid (- 11.11%). The average rise and fall this week was – 1.03%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of business society, the domestic maleic anhydride market rebounded at the weekend, the maleic anhydride price was stable and upward, most of them closed and waited, the manufacturer’s shipment slowed down, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market may rise in the near future.

DBP prices fell in November

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DBP market in November continued the plasticizer Market Trend in October, and the DBP price fluctuated and fell. As of November 26, the price of DBP was 10500 yuan / ton, down 12.98% from 12066.67 yuan / ton on November 1. The plasticizer market was weak in November.

N-butanol fell in November

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell in November, the market of n-butanol in Shandong fell, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement was not high. N-butanol was mainly on the sidelines, and the market of n-butanol was weak. The price of raw materials fell, the cost support weakened, and the downward pressure on DBP increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply in November

According to the price monitoring of business society, the high level of phthalic anhydride market fell in November, and the price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply. The market of phthalic anhydride weakened, the delivery of phthalic anhydride was general, the price of phthalic anhydride decreased, the cost of DBP decreased, and the downward pressure of DBP increased.

PVC bottomed out in November

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the PVC price rose slightly after the sharp drop in November, the PVC bottomed out and rebounded, and the PVC market was about to warm. The price of calcium carbide rose slightly, the cost of PVC rose slightly, the PVC disk was strong, the futures PVC price rose, which boosted the rising atmosphere of the spot market. The enterprise quotation was tentatively raised, the market trading atmosphere gradually improved, the focus began to move upward, the PVC spot price stopped falling and warmed up, the PVC market rose cautiously, and the DBP price rise was generally supported.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a DBP data analyst at business agency, believes that DBP prices fell sharply in November and the DBP market fell. In terms of raw materials, n-butanol fell violently, the price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply, the cost of DBP decreased, and the pressure of DBP decline increased; In terms of demand, the PVC market rose cautiously, and the demand for plasticizer still exists. The downward pressure on DBP costs has increased, and the upward support remains. It is expected that the price of DBP will be stable in the future.

On November 25, the domestic viscose staple fiber market was calm, the trading atmosphere was light, and the manufacturers were willing to stabilize the price. According to the price monitoring of business society, as of November 25, 2021, the ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China is 14140 yuan / ton, which is the same as that in previous days.

According to some manufacturers, in the last half month, the signing quantity is not good, and the physical inventory may face some pressure. Manufacturers are pessimistic about the market in November. At present, prices are mainly stable.

Upstream staple fiber and pulp Market: due to the weakening of viscose staple fiber market, the pulp price fell slightly, but there is still a distance from the psychological price of chemical fiber factory. Chemical fiber manufacturers purchase on demand. The spot price of domestic wood pulp has stopped falling. As of November 25, 2021, the market price of coniferous wood pulp is 5060 yuan / ton and that of broad-leaved wood pulp is 4574 yuan / ton.

The downstream cotton yarn trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream demand of the terminal is weak, and the price is stable. As of November 25, 2021, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) is 19033 yuan / ton, and the price is stable.

Business analysts expect that the short-term market of viscose staple fiber is dominated by weak consolidation, and the market may need new stimulus points to boost.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fell slightly on the 24th. The spot price was 71938.33 yuan / ton, down 0.87% from the previous day, up 24.13% from the beginning of the year and up 32.91% year-on-year.

The inventory of the three major exchanges in the world decreased significantly, the copper dispute in Peru reappeared, the market supply concerns rekindled, and the copper price was supported. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in October 2021, China imported 411000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, an increase of 1.1% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 33.6%; From January to October, the total import was 4.429 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%. In October, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was 80.45%, with a month on month decrease of 3.87% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.23%. Real estate orders weakened. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics in September, the year-on-year growth rate of indicators such as new construction, construction and completed area of the real estate sector decreased, and the demand was significantly weakened. Supply and demand are weak, and it is expected that the short-term copper price will still maintain a volatile pattern.

Today, Shandong styrene market continued to decline in a narrow range. According to the data of business agency, the production price of styrene in Shandong was 8575.00 yuan / ton, down 0.58% from 8625.00 yuan / ton yesterday.

Crude oil rebounded strongly, pure benzene continued to fall, and the spot of styrene futures continued to fluctuate and weaken. Due to the decline of styrene port inventory, delivery at the end of the month, there is still bargain hunting replenishment demand in the market, which is hedged with the expected supply increment, partial arbitrage suppression, unstable spot transactions, etc. under the collision of bad and good, it is expected that the styrene market will still operate weakly in the short term, and the cost side tends to form a bottom support.

Product Name: n-butanol

Latest price (November 22): 9733 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on November 22, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong fell. The average ex factory price of n-butanol was 9733 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price was reduced by 233 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.34%. On the 22nd, the transaction performance of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong was light, the downstream plants started generally, and the demand was mainly to maintain rigid demand. On the 22nd, lihuayi n-butanol delivered 9700 yuan / ton. Luxi Chemical n-butanol closed at 9500 yuan / ton today.

Future forecast: at present, the downstream procurement enthusiasm of n-butanol is not significantly improved. The operators wait and see the market. The n-butanol datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market is mostly weak, focusing on consolidation and operation.

The domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuated in a narrow range, the weekly guideline price of Shanghai Kesi was increased, and the supply was too small. Other factories also released the news of stabilizing the market, maintained uniform shipment, and the arrival speed was slightly slow. At present, it is in the off-season of downstream hard bubble demand, the downstream replenishment mood is not high, and the shipment speed of traders is fast, but most transactions are at low prices.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from November 12 to November 19, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI fell from 20150 yuan / ton to 20033 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.58% in the cycle, 10.24% month on month and 7.15% year-on-year.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of November 19:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong 19800 yuan / ton 18800-19000 yuan / ton

East China 19800 yuan / ton 18900-19000 yuan / ton

South China 19800 yuan / ton 19000 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders as of November 19:

enterprise ., Model, price

Nanjing Tanqing Trading Co., Ltd Each model 19500 yuan / ton

Guangzhou Boshun Chemical Co., Ltd Shanghai Material 19200 yuan / ton

Shandong Bosu New Material Co., Ltd Wanhua material 19800 yuan / ton

Shandong Bosu New Material Co., Ltd Shanghai Material 19600 yuan / ton

Linyi Shijia Trading Co., Ltd Wanhua material 19600 yuan / ton

The price of pure benzene fell. At present, the decline in the price of pure benzene is mostly driven by styrene. The supply of styrene increased sharply due to the restart of large units and the planned operation of subsequent new capacity, which stimulated the bad mood of the industry and pushed down the price in advance.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Aniline: the cost side continues to weaken, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, the negotiation is general, aniline continues to be weak and consolidated, and the price in Shandong is 13000-13260 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 13600-13700 yuan / ton.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, the 1.1 million T / a unit of Yantai Wanhua operates normally, and the first phase is shut down on November 27 for 45 days. Shanghai keschuang 600000 T / a unit was overhauled on November 15, lasting about 1-2 weeks. The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market is depressed and mainly sorted out.

Trade name: yellow phosphorus

Latest price November 18: 38000 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic yellow phosphorus market price was temporarily stable on November 18. The overall market trading is relatively light, the downstream enterprises are not willing to purchase at high prices, just need to take goods, traders wait and see, and the actual transaction price shows a slow downward trend. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stabilized temporarily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (November 17): 10133.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on November 17, the phosphoric acid market was generally stable, and some enterprises adjusted their quotations in a narrow range. Recently, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus increased slightly. The phosphoric acid Market watched carefully, the price did not change much, and still started the order. The mentality was relatively calm, and the offer was mostly in the range of 9000-11500 yuan / ton.

It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will remain stable.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (November 16): 9140 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, on November 16, the closing price of PVC main contract 2201 was 8359 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.62%. The futures price fell for two consecutive days, driving the price of spot market to move downward. Most enterprises reduced the price in the range of 50-200 yuan / ton, and the market center of gravity began to move downward. Although the price of raw calcium carbide rose and the cost support was still in place, it entered the off-season, The downstream demand gradually weakened, the procurement also continued to maintain rigid demand, bargain hunting, and the holders sold at a profit, but the actual transaction atmosphere was poor. It is expected that the PVC market may continue to decline in the short term.

Forecast: the PVC market is expected to continue to decline in the short term.