In August, the dichloromethane market continued its upward trend from July. In mid August, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong reached a high of 2800 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.9%, before falling back and rebounding today. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 29th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2540 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 2.12%.

The cost of raw materials has decreased, and methanol liquid chlorine continues to fluctuate weakly in August; The operating rate of methane chloride plants has slightly decreased. In the first half of the month, there was good news on the demand side, and the National Health Commission approved dichloromethane as an extraction solvent. Enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, and the market continues to rise. However, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the demand side, and the market transaction atmosphere is weak. The extent of enterprise destocking is not significant. In the second half of the month, market inventory is under pressure, and factory quotations are declining one after another. Urgent replenishment is needed to support it. Currently, market trading is still acceptable, and enterprises are maintaining production and sales balance or slightly reducing inventory. Today, enterprise prices have rebounded. As of August 29th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2520-2560 yuan/ton.

Supply side: Due to the low load and maintenance of some devices, the domestic production of methane chloride has slightly decreased.

In terms of raw materials, methanol, the raw material, continued to fluctuate weakly in August. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 29th, the spot price of methanol was 2505.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.17% from the beginning of the month. The contradiction between supply and demand in the liquid chlorine market has intensified, hindering the upward trend and continuing the market weakness.

In terms of demand, dichloromethane has a wide range of applications and can be used in film solvents, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, paint removers, refrigerants, and other fields. On July 25th, the National Health Commission issued a notice on eight “three new foods” including arabinoxylan. According to the provisions of the “Food Safety Law of the People’s Republic of China”, the evaluation agency organized experts to review and approve the safety assessment materials of various substances applied as new varieties of food related products. This includes the application of dichloromethane as a new type of processing aid for the food industry, used in the tea de coffee process. Expanded the demand market for dichloromethane. Downstream refrigerant R32 is produced according to the quota and is urgently needed for procurement. Recently, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice on the arrangements for the remaining quota of hydrofluorocarbons in 2024. Add 35000 tons of R32 production quota for internal use. The proportion of R32 domestic production quotas for each production unit remains unchanged before and after the adjustment. The increase in demand for dichloromethane has provided favorable support for its price.

Business analysts believe that the Golden September and Silver October are about to begin, and downstream suppliers will stock up and purchase. The demand side is supported by positive news, and companies have a strong willingness to raise prices. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will remain stable and rise in September.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has slightly decreased recently (8.20-8.27). As of August 27th, the average market price of soda ash was 1810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the price of 1820 yuan/ton on August 20th, a decrease of 0.55%, and a month on month decrease of 6.02%.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market is weakly consolidated. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has increased, with a slight increase in soda ash output and an overall increase in manufacturers’ total inventory performance; On the demand side, there is an expectation of cold repair in the terminal market, and the downstream glass industry mainly consumes inventory, resulting in limited procurement of soda ash. The market supply is strong and demand is weak, and soda ash prices continue to operate weakly. As of August 27th, the price of soda ash in East China is weakly stable, with mainstream market prices for light soda ash ranging from 1650-1970 yuan/ton; The price of soda ash in central China remains stable, with mainstream market prices for light soda ash ranging from 1550-1850 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the glass price market continues to decline, with an average market price of 15.92 yuan/square meter as of August 27th, a decrease of 2.75% compared to the average market price of 16.37 yuan/square meter on August 20th. The inventory in the glass market is sufficient, downstream demand is weak, and the market is bearish. Currently, some production lines have undergone cold repairs, and glass prices will continue to be weak in the future.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 34th week of 2024 (8.19-8.23), there was a total of 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities with zero rise and fall in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing an increase are: caustic soda (0.75%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-1.49%), light soda ash (-0.55%), and PVC (-0.22%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.25%.

Future forecast: Currently, the operating rate of domestic soda ash plants is relatively high, the inventory of spot soda ash plants is sufficient, downstream glass industry has cold repair expectations, demand remains weak, soda ash market transactions are average, and there is a lack of favorable market conditions. Overall, it is expected that soda ash will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8260 yuan/ton on August 20th, and the average price was 8260 yuan/ton on August 27th, during which the quotation remained stable.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10166 yuan/ton on August 20th, and the average price was 10283 yuan/ton on August 27th, with a price increase of 1.15% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8162 yuan/ton on August 20th, and the average price was 8137 yuan/ton on August 27th, with a price drop of 0.31% during this period.

Recently, the price of polyethylene has fluctuated with little fluctuation. High voltage products have experienced price increases due to equipment maintenance. Linear products and low-voltage products have weak and slight fluctuations. The rebound in international oil prices provides some support for the cost side. Polyethylene inventory has slightly increased, leading to increased supply pressure and slow consumption of petrochemical inventory. In terms of demand, downstream factories maintain a focus on rigid procurement and are cautious in their purchases. However, there has been no significant improvement in demand, which limits the upward momentum of product growth.

On August 27th, the polyethylene L2409 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange opened at 8180 yuan and closed at 8183 yuan, up 47 yuan, with a high of 8192 yuan and a low of 8164 yuan, up 0.58%.

There is an increasing trend in the supply side in September; The peak consumption season for demand side “golden September and silver October”. Both supply and demand are increasing, and it is expected that polyethylene will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of August 20th, the average quotation price of high-quality DMF enterprises in China was 3910 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF market price has been narrowly declining, with a decrease of 1.51% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the overall market center of gravity is operating at a low level, with mainstream prices around 3900 yuan/ton. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, with enterprises mainly giving up profits and taking orders. Downstream demand is weak, orders are slow, and manufacturers are actively shipping.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the overall market price of DMF has been running weakly, with a downward trend in prices. Downstream demand is currently poor, overall market shipments are slow, inventory pressure is high, and the mainstream price range is 3900 yuan/ton. Manufacturers are offering discounts and taking orders with a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Downstream essential purchases are the main focus, and currently DMF cost support is insufficient. Recently, there have been news of maintenance from most manufacturers, and prices are trending upwards. Operators are adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that downstream demand for DMF is poor, overall market shipments are slow, and DMF has average cost support. It is expected that DNF prices will operate narrowly and weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 19th to 23rd, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5982 yuan/ton to 5970 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.21% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 12.37%. The domestic ethanol market prices are weakly stable, with rising raw material prices, cost pressures on ethanol production enterprises, increased market supply, and demand side demand for fixed procurement. At the same time, there is a strong demand for fixed purchases on the demand side, and actual transactions are light.

In terms of cost, the domestic corn market has fluctuated, and rumors of overdue rice have been delayed; The cost of building a database for traders is relatively high; Channel inventory is low, and the expected decrease in imported grains in the fourth quarter. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Negative factors affecting the ethanol supply side.

On the demand side, the off-season of Baijiu consumption continues and orders are postponed; The short-term anhydrous procurement of methyl ethyl ester remains stable; Ethyl acetate will restart the Baichuan plant next week, and the Anhui Huayi plant is scheduled for maintenance, with little fluctuation in short-term operation. Short term ethanol demand is influenced by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, the negative impact of cost is expected, while the market supply remains abundant, resulting in overall shipping pressure. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that domestic ethanol prices will remain stable with a weak trend in the short term.

This week, the domestic acrylic acid market prices fluctuated downward. As of August 21st, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6775.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6787.00 yuan/ton). The market price of raw material propylene has been raised. The main downstream butyl acrylate market is experiencing a downward trend, with a stagnant atmosphere and limited cost support.

In terms of cost

The price of propylene in the East China region is stable and rising, while production enterprises in the Zhejiang region can release an increase in propylene supply. Some mainstream enterprises are offering lower prices to stimulate shipments. As of August 21st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6818.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% compared to last week (6850.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of demand

Butyl acrylate is weakly oscillating. The raw material n-butanol has softened narrowly, and the butyl acrylate factory has made market quotations accordingly. Downstream users have entered the market and purchased according to their needs, and the market is operating within the negotiation range. The cost support is limited, and holders mainly ship according to the market. The overall price of butyl acrylate shows a trend of first falling and then rising, with an average price of 8650-8800 yuan/ton in the East China market.

Overall

The domestic acrylic acid market price is temporarily stable, and the cost side propylene price is running weakly, supporting the weak price of the acrylic acid market; The demand side is driven by the support of other raw materials and the tight supply flow, which still provides sufficient support for the current acrylic acid market. Business analysts predict that in the future, the cost pressure on acrylic acid companies will increase and the recovery of terminal demand will be slow, making it difficult to maintain the subsequent rise of acrylic acid and esters.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 12th to 20th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8778 yuan/ton to 8742 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.41% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 23.601%. The focus of the domestic BDO market continues to decline, with an overall increase in industry operating rates and an increase in market supply. However, the overall load of downstream industries is average, and the supply-demand contradiction highlights the bearish mentality of industry players in terms of purchasing and sales, leading to a volatile downward trend in the market.

On the supply side, there has been a significant increase in the supply of goods in the market, with weak support from the supply side. The favorable factors for BDO supply have weakened.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: With the obvious oversupply in the calcium carbide market, the factory price continues to decline, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to start production remains low. However, downstream demand is still in a decreasing stage, and market sentiment is sluggish. Raw material methanol: The methanol market is operating weakly. As of 10:00 am on August 20th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2425 yuan/ton. The BDO cost side is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, there is no significant change in downstream industry load, maintaining the follow-up of essential orders, and severely suppressing spot prices. There is a lack of obvious positive factors on the supply and demand side of the market, and business operators have a bearish attitude towards purchasing and sales. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

Future forecast: Currently, market prices are at a low level, industry losses are intensifying, and the supply side’s stable market mentality is the main factor, which may limit the downward space. BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will continue to operate weakly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall toluene market has been declining recently (8.9-8.19). On August 19th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7180 yuan/ton, and on August 9th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.24% during the period. This cycle, the toluene market continued to operate weakly, with market prices fluctuating downward. The crude oil market fluctuated widely within the week, and the market mentality was weak. In terms of supply, there were toluene shipments to ports in East and South China this week, which slightly accumulated inventory and dragged down the market mentality. The overall demand is weak, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the gasoline blending industry is low. Downstream demand tends to be rigid, coupled with a weak macro perspective, which has led to a strong market atmosphere. As of August 19th, the mainstream quotation range in East China is between 7100-7150 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 100-150 yuan/ton compared to last week.

Cost wise: During this cycle, the international crude oil market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. As of August 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.65 per barrel, a decrease of $1.51 or 1.9%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.68 per barrel, a decrease of $1.36 or 1.7%.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation has been lowered overall this week, with a range of 100 yuan/ton. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7050 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7250 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7100-7150 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7100 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On August 19th, Sinopec Sales Company’s xylene price dropped by 200 yuan/ton, and the current execution price is 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical, and other facilities are operating stably and selling normally. As of August 16th, the closing price of the xylene market in Asia, CFR China, was between $934-936 per ton, a decrease of $48 per ton from last week.

On Friday (August 16th), the Asian toluene market closed lower: the FOB South Korean closing price in September was $871-873 per ton, an increase of $5 per ton; The closing price of CFR China in September is 857-859 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: The cost based crude oil market is expected to experience a wide range of fluctuations in the near future, with limited impact on the toluene market. On the supply side, some enterprises in Shandong have been operating at high inventory levels, with a strong intention to ship recently and a wide range of price reductions. However, there is a lack of follow-up intention from downstream procurement. Affected by the macro atmosphere, the overall atmosphere of the toluene market has been weak recently, with low downstream purchasing intentions and limited trading. Although the price is at a relatively low level this year, some regions have some intention to replenish inventory, but overall transactions are limited. Downstream demand is biased towards rigid demand, and demand support is insufficient. Overall, there are still negative factors in the toluene market, and there is a strong supply-demand game mentality. It is expected that the short-term trend will be dominated by narrow fluctuations. Focus on downstream replenishment in the future

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 16th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6510 yuan/ton, which is 0.31% higher than the reference average price of 6490 yuan/ton on August 9th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 16th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is 6750 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average price of 6750 yuan/ton on August 9th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic hot process phosphoric acid market prices have slightly increased, while the wet process phosphoric acid market has remained stable. As of August 16th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6350-6600 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6600 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6750 yuan/ton.

Cost end

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus enterprises remained stable, and the market situation slightly declined. Yellow phosphorus enterprise owners issued preliminary orders. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened, resulting in poor market transactions. Expected short-term consolidation and operation of yellow phosphorus market.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the market price of phosphate ore has been running steadily, with the main focus on early orders. Local supply is tight, while market demand is stable. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This week, the spot supply in the phosphoric acid market is tight, with limited market inventory and favorable support from the supply side. But the terminal demand is poor, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere is average.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has seen a slight increase in recent days. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. The market supply is tight, and there is some support on the supply side. It is expected that the short-term market price of phosphoric acid will mainly operate in a narrow range of consolidation.

This week, the domestic acrylic acid market price remained stable. As of August 14th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6787.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% compared to last week (6800.00 yuan/ton). The market price of raw material propylene has been lowered. The cost support of the acrylic acid market has weakened,

The main reasons for the market price of acrylic acid are as follows:

In terms of cost

The price of propylene in the East China region is mainly weakly stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 7000-7050 yuan/ton. Downstream factories in Zhejiang region have relatively sufficient propylene supply reserves in August, with limited demand for new orders. As of August 14th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6850.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.28% compared to the beginning of this month (7083.25 yuan/ton). There are still some downstream buyers in Zhejiang who have a strong desire to buy, but they mainly rely on contracts and small contracts for volume trading.

In terms of demand

The main downstream market for butyl acrylate is experiencing a downward trend. The atmosphere in the venue is deadlocked, with limited cost support, downstream users mainly consuming contracts, cautious spot purchases, flexible offers from butyl acrylate suppliers, and weak market negotiation focus. The limited increase in orders from the butyl acrylate factory has led to low purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in shipping pressure for acrylic acid production enterprises and a weak trend in market prices. The overall price of butyl acrylate in China showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with an average price of 9146 yuan/ton in the East China market.

Recently, the trend of raw materials has been declining, and the market for acrylic acid is cool. Under the guidance of multiple market factors, the price of acrylic acid remains stable due to the smooth flow of goods in the yard.

Overall

The domestic acrylic acid market price is temporarily stable, and the cost side propylene price is running weakly, supporting the weak price of the acrylic acid market; The demand side is driven by the support of other raw materials and the tight supply flow, which still provides sufficient support for the current acrylic acid market. Business analysts predict that in the future, the cost pressure on acrylic acid companies will increase and the recovery of terminal demand will be slow, making it difficult to maintain the subsequent rise of acrylic acid and esters.