According to Thai media reports, on January 27, Mr. suktas tangwiriyakul, deputy director general of the rubber Bureau of Thailand (raot), presided over the “rubber fresh latex management plan”, which aims to solve the problem of fresh latex price. He plans to purchase 200000 tons of fresh latex from the market to help stabilize the rubber price and alleviate the pain of rubber farmers affected by the fall of fresh latex price..

The program is expected to help acquire 200000 tons of fresh latex from the market, and raot started the project on January 27 by supporting fresh latex tanks. In order to maintain the quality of fresh latex for 1-2 months, chemicals were used to extend the shelf life of fresh latex. The experiments were carried out in the following three prefectures: luokun Prefecture, Dongli Prefecture and botalen Prefecture. This time, the cooperation alliance of luokunfu rubber planting foundation will become the leader in promoting the fresh latex management project. It will be the forerunner to solve the price problem of fresh latex in the future.

This plan supports farmers’ organizations to collect fresh latex in China and wait for the right time to delay the sale to the rubber bureau at a reasonable and fair price. The rubber Bureau will provide latex tanks for collecting chemicals to extend the storage time of fresh latex, so as to maintain product quality for 1-2 months, and provide funds for collecting fresh latex for storage to farmers’ institutions.

The pilot project will be carried out in three prefectures: luokun Prefecture, Dongli Prefecture and botalon Prefecture. This time, the cooperation alliance of luokunfu rubber planting foundation will become the leader in promoting the fresh latex management project. It will be the forerunner to solve the price problem of fresh latex in the future.

Affected by this news, 28 days rubber futures trading mixed. On the same day, the contract of SICOM tsr20 in March closed at 156.7 cents / kg, down 0.5 cents / kg or 0.32% compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day; the contract of SICOM RSS3 in February closed at 215 cents / kg, down 0.9 cents / kg or 0.42% compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day; the contract of Japan OSE The main contract of rubber on June 6 closed at 231.8 yen / kg, up 3.5 yen / kg or 1.53% compared with the previous trading session.

Mainstream price trend of natural rubber from January 27 to 29, 2021

Data showed that the mainstream price of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in East China on January 28 was about 13450 yuan / ton, which was about 1% lower than the mainstream price on January 27. The favorable situation of Thailand’s purchase and storage was not on January 28, but was delayed by one day, which was reflected in the Shanghai Rubber and domestic spot rubber market on January 29. Monitoring data showed that the Shanghai Rubber 05 contract closed up 270 points and closed at 14405 yuan / ton on January 29 The mainstream quotation of milk gum was about 13675 yuan / ton, up 1.67% from the 28th, nearly 250 yuan / ton.

Towards the end of the year, Thailand, which accounts for nearly 30% of the total output, has gradually entered the stop cutting period, and the supply chain in Southeast Asia has been reduced, which highlights the favorable supply situation. However, at the same time, domestic tire enterprises are facing the holiday effect, with less demand and lower operating rate. To sum up, the future of natural rubber into the annual market sensitive period, the role of funds will be more obvious, market volatility.

According to the business news agency, on January 28, the coking coal market in North China was about 1541.67 yuan / ton, up 4.28% over the same period last year. The price of coking coal is now relatively strong.

On January 27, the coking coal commodity index was 113.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.38% from 121.53 (March 12, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and up 153.35% from 44.91, the lowest point on January 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 1, 2012 to now)

According to the business community, the overall supply of coking coal is relatively tight. The Spring Festival is drawing near. Inventory is down. However, the overall demand is still good, and coking coal is mainly in strong operation.

Demand: in the downstream, the profit of coking enterprises is relatively good and the start-up is relatively high. With the gradual improvement of transportation, the inventory in the field is generally low. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand, the profit of steel plants is limited, and they are resistant to high price coke. Recently, the shipment of steel plants has slowed down compared with the previous period, and some manufacturers have maintenance plans. Port: Shandong Port and port are still relatively strong today. The 15th round of price increase has been accepted by some steel plants. As of today, the mainstream spot ex warehouse price of port quasi first grade metallurgical coke is about 2950 yuan / ton, and the price of first grade coke is about 3050 yuan / ton. The inventory of the two ports rose slightly, the supply of goods available for sale in the port was still low, coke futures fell about 4% yesterday, and some traders in the port were afraid of high spirits, so the plan of port gathering was postponed before the festival. In the future, we will focus on the implementation of the 15th round of price increase, the start-up of downstream steel plants and the coke inventory of each link.

According to coking coal analysts of business society, the trend of downstream coke is still good at present, with high start-up and profit margin. Generally speaking, there is still room for coke demand for coking coal in the short term, and it is expected that coking coal will be mainly in strong operation in the short term.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of January 27, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 9466.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, flat compared with last Thursday (January 21), and down 3.73% compared with December 27, 2020.

Recently, the acrylic acid market has been running smoothly. At present, the price of raw material propylene is down, the cost support is weakened, the spot supply is tight, the downstream construction is stable, the acrylic acid just needs to be purchased, and the enterprise offers are stable.

Upstream propylene, January 26, Shandong propylene market prices straight down. According to the price chart of the business society, the propylene price fell all the way at the end of December. It began to rise on New Year’s day, and increased by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th. Later, it was stable or rose, and generally rose in a ladder shape. This month, it has risen by about 250-300 yuan / ton. On the 21st, it began to decline continuously, and today it is down again by 100-150 yuan / ton. The market transaction is between 7000-7450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7000-7100 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock pressure slightly big, the shipment situation is general.

According to the price monitoring of business community, on January 26, 2021, there were 18 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 1 commodity with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities with a rise were sulfuric acid (8.20%), hydrochloric acid (4.00%) and acetone (3.35%). There were 14 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were chloroform (- 4.41%), polyaluminum chloride (- 3.17%) and epichlorohydrin (- 3.07%). The average daily rise or fall was 0.06%.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts from business news agency believe that at present, the trend of raw material propylene is declining, the support from the cost side is insufficient, the supply side is supported, and the downstream is purchased on demand. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

In January 2021, the domestic market price of antimony ingot was temporarily stable. The average price of domestic market was 42625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 50000 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 17.30% compared with that of last month.

The antimony commodity index on January 25 was 67.52, up 2.09 points from yesterday, down 34.01% from 102.32 points (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 43.72% from 46.98 points, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

In the first ten days of January, the market price continued the trend of a year ago, and the high level was stable. The shortage of domestic raw materials remained. Some antimony ingot manufacturers suspended their export sales. With the gradual reduction of market supply, the external price continued to rise, further driving the market mood. In the middle of January, affected by the limited transportation caused by domestic public health incidents, the demand of some downstream manufacturers for goods increased significantly and increased The purchase quantity of antimony ingot is also discussed. Due to the limited supply of ore end and the tight supply of raw materials, domestic manufacturers are reluctant to sell. Most domestic antimony ingot manufacturers have plans to reduce production to varying degrees. This has resulted in a further decrease in the supply of goods in circulation, tight supply and rising prices. As of the 26th, the average price of 2 low bismuth antimony ingots was 48500 yuan / ton, 1 high bismuth antimony ingot was 50000 yuan / ton and 0 high bismuth antimony ingot was 51000 yuan / ton in the domestic market. The average price of 2 high bismuth antimony ingots was 43500 yuan / ton, which was significantly higher than that of last month. The average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 45000 yuan / ton and 99.8% at 46000 yuan / ton, which was higher than that of last month.

The Business Association believes that the price rise of antimony products this month is mainly related to the pre Festival stock preparation and tight supply of ore terminal. In the later stage, with the end of pre Festival stock preparation, the procurement will return to rationality and focus on demand. However, the tight supply of ore terminal is difficult to solve in the short term, which has a certain boost to the antimony market. It is expected that antimony related products will still have upward space in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block list data, this week’s domestic toluene continued the upward trend of last week. The price of toluene was 3910 yuan / ton on January 17, and 4037.5 yuan / ton on this Sunday (January 24), up 3.71% from 127.5 yuan / ton last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s Toluene price increased by 150-250 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this week, the toluene market was very strong, with strong atmosphere, and the focus of negotiation was pushed up. Near the weekend, prices soared and fell. In terms of external market, as of January 22, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 548 US dollars / ton, up 15 US dollars / ton or 2.81% compared with January 15; the price of imported toluene from East China was 554 US dollars / ton, up 22 US dollars / ton or 4.14% compared with January 15. During the week, the external price continued last week’s rise, which was supported by the favorable conditions, and the price of toluene continued to rise.

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil news guidance is weak, and the market hopes that the new US fiscal stimulus plan will be implemented. Compared with January 15, Brent rose by $0.705/barrel, or 1.29%; WTI fell by $0.15/barrel, or 0.29%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell slightly this week, with domestic goods at 12533.33 yuan / ton, down 1.05% from last week and up 7.12% from the same period last year. The range consolidation of East China market was boosted by the favorable support of suppliers. The overall offer of the industry was up, followed by the rising part of the downstream. There was an increase in the market inquiry of just needed goods. On the whole, the transaction was still cautious.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price rose this week compared with last week. Sinopec’s listed price was about 4700 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton, or 10.64%, compared with last week, with a year-on-year decline of 24.64%. By the end of the weekend, the closing prices of PX market in Asia were US $671-673 / T FOB Korea and US $689-691 / T CFR China. This week, the trend of PX external price remained high, and about 40% of domestic products needed to be imported. The higher external price brought some positive support to the domestic market.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Affected by the public health incident and the rain and snow weather in the north, some domestic downstream terminal plants are expected to shut down, and the toluene market demand is weak. In addition, domestic trade ships will arrive in Hong Kong, and the price is expected to decline slightly next week. Continue to pay attention to the downstream purchasing situation, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of toluene.

During the week (1.18-1.22), the price of NBR was weak and fell. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of NBR was 18866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 18466.67 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a price drop of 2.12%.

The ex factory price of NBR in China is basically stable. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of January 22, the price of NBR of Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was stable: n41e reported 16600 yuan / ton; 3305e reported 17200 yuan / ton; 3308e reported 18100 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of NBR of Ningbo shunze was stable, and the ex factory price of NBR of 3355 was 18000 yuan / ton. At present, the ex factory price of NBR is stable, but the market price is slightly weaker. The mainstream market price of NBR n41e is 15600-15900 yuan / ton, and that of shunze 3355 is around 17000 yuan / ton.

Raw material prices fell slightly, and the cost side continued to drag down NBR. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of January 22, the butadiene price was 6185 yuan / ton, down 5.18% from 6523 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Finally, in the near future, the operating rate of NBR downstream rubber products has decreased, the demand side has slightly softened, and the willingness of downstream to replenish more warehouses is not big, and the support for NBR has weakened.

Future forecast: NBR analysts believe that the price of raw materials is lower, but the downstream demand is weaker than that in the earlier stage, and the price of NBR may be adjusted weakly in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise this week, and the price of electric carbon of some manufacturers has exceeded 70000 yuan / ton. On January 21, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 63600 yuan / ton, which was 6.35% higher than that at the beginning of the week (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 59800 yuan / ton on January 17). On January 21, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 68300 yuan / ton, which was 7.39% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 63600 yuan / ton on January 17). On the 20th, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 61000 ~ 68000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market was around 65000 ~ 73000 yuan / ton.

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise in recent years, and the overall market is bullish. With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream purchasing intention is strengthened, and the demand for replenishment continues. At present, the transaction price in the market varies from high to low, and the purchase price gap of various types of material factories is relatively large. With the continuous increase of the downstream market, the demand for lithium carbonate in the lithium battery industry has increased, and the tight supply structure may continue.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream also rose slightly, the overall supply and demand structure gradually improved, the superimposed ore price rose, the cost support and lithium carbonate price rose, which led to the price of lithium hydroxide also showed an upward trend. As for the lithium iron phosphate power market, due to the rising price of lithium carbonate and higher downstream demand, most lithium iron enterprises are facing tight shipment. The downstream battery enterprises have low acceptance of the increase, the price of iron lithium enterprises is relatively strong, and the zero order transaction in the market is not high.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the lithium carbonate commodity index on January 20 was 161.02, up 3.06 points from yesterday, down 60.25% from 405.10 points (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 63.41% from 98.54 points, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to lithium carbonate analysts of business news agency, at present, the market price of lithium carbonate still has a rising trend. With the domestic lithium salt trend gradually improving, in the form of tight supply structure, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may still be in an upward trend in the short term.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

On January 20, the acrylic acid market was stable. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of January 20, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 9433.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, and decreased by 4.07% compared with December 20, 2020. At present, there is no obvious change in the quotation of acrylic acid enterprises, mainly for stable price delivery, strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream, and general purchasing enthusiasm.

Upstream propylene, on January 20, Shandong propylene market price was mainly stable. According to the price chart of the business society, the propylene price declined all the way at the end of December, and began to rise on New Year’s day. It rose by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th. Later, it was stable or rose, and the overall price rose in a ladder shape. Today, the price rose again. This month, it has risen by about 250-300 yuan / ton, but it has not moved today. The market transaction is between 7450-7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7450 yuan / ton. Now the factory has no pressure on inventory, and the delivery is smooth.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices on January 19, 2021, there were 26 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 kinds of commodities increased were isopropanol (17.52%), acetone (12.71%) and paraformaldehyde (7.74%). There were 13 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 1 kind of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decrease were chloroform (- 6.25%), sulfuric acid (- 3.94%), propane (- 3.37%). The average daily rise and fall was 0.57%.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts of business news agency believe that the recent rise of raw material propylene price, strengthened cost support, downstream on-demand procurement, and average market inquiry and transaction performance. It is expected that in the short term, acrylic acid market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline in Shandong Province declined slightly at the beginning of this week and rebounded at the end of the week, according to the data of business news agency’s block list. On January 17, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7800-7900 yuan / ton; in Nanjing, the price of aniline was 8000-8100 yuan / ton, with an average price of 21.54% higher than that in the same period of last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the rise of last week was continued at the beginning of this week. Supported by the rise of crude oil, the price of pure benzene continued to rise. Later, with the decline of crude oil and the decline of external market, the domestic market mentality turned cautious, and the prices of individual factories decreased at the weekend. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 100 yuan / ton to 4650 yuan / ton, and the price in parts of North China was increased to 4500 yuan / ton. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port was about 2000 tons higher than last week. On Sunday (January 17), the price of pure benzene was 4230-4650 yuan / ton (average price was 4506 yuan / ton), up 82 yuan / ton or 1.85% from last week.

The price of nitric acid this week was stable compared with last week, and the price of nitric acid production in East China was 2050 yuan / ton on Friday (January 15). The price was flat at the beginning of the month, up 29.47% from the same period last year.

Affected by the public health events in Hebei and the rain and snow weather in the north, the transportation is affected, and the demand of the downstream in the north is limited. However, the relative load of aniline enterprises is not high, the spot supply is reduced, the inventory is controllable, and the price is firm.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, affected by the public health events in Hebei Province and the rain and snow weather in the north, the downstream terminals may stop ahead of time, and the pure benzene enterprises may reduce the price in order to promote the shipment. And the external market has continued to soften. The price of pure benzene is expected to be weak next week. Pay attention to the situation of downstream stock preparation and shutdown before the festival, and the trend of crude oil, external market and styrene.

Jiangsu Fuqiang new materials will soon have new aniline shipment, focus on the market spot supply.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, on January 15, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 13933 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week and the same as that at the beginning of the month, down 9.13% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of salicylic acid was mainly stable, and the price of a few levels rose. Recently, the market offer of raw material phenol has remained stable with acceptable support. The demand side has strong demand for goods preparation before the Spring Festival. The inquiry enthusiasm has increased. The trading atmosphere is good. The manufacturer’s offer is firm. The supply of pharmaceutical grade goods is tight. The price has risen slightly. Large orders yield profits. The market is good. According to the price monitoring of business association, as of January 15, the quotations of salicylic acid industrial enterprises were mostly in the range of 12000-15000 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation. The quotations of pharmaceutical grade enterprises were mostly in the range of 23000-25500 yuan / ton, and those of sublimation grade enterprises were mostly in the range of 15000-20000 yuan / ton. The actual transactions were mainly through negotiation.

On the 15th, the phenol Market offer continued to maintain stability, but some of the holders were lower than the turnover, and the market was slightly loose in a narrow range. However, the supply pressure of the holders was not large as a whole. The downstream inquiry just needed to follow up, and the market was slightly weak in the afternoon. However, in view of the cost and supply side problems, the market did not adjust significantly. It is estimated that the domestic phenol Market is weak, and the reference price of phenol Market in East China is 5900-6000 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 02nd week of 2021 (1.11-1.15), there were 40 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 8 kinds of commodities rose by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were DMF (18.80%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (8.37%), epoxy resin (8.05%). There were 17 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were butadiene (- 11.42%), ox (- 6.00%) and chloroform (- 2.94%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.93%.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of business news agency think: in the near future, the raw material side is stable, the demand side is strong, the demand for goods is strong before the Spring Festival, the inquiry enthusiasm is rising, the trading atmosphere is good, the manufacturer’s offer is firm, individual rise, the market is good, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term.