Aluminum market trend in October

In October, the price of domestic standard aluminum ingots ran smoothly. According to the data of the business agency, as of October 30, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 14013.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.10% compared with the average market price of 14000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the valley price appeared on October 15, the average market price was 13786.67 yuan / ton, the peak value appeared on October 9, the average market price was 14080 yuan / ton, taking the initial price as the benchmark price, and the amplitude within the month. It is 2.09%.

Aluminum import and export data in September

Relevant data show that the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in September was 430000 tons, a decrease of 40000 tons compared with August, a year-on-year increase of 2.80%, and a year-on-year growth rate of 14.70 percentage points lower than last year. From January to September, China’s total export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum materials was 28000 tons, an increase of 9.70% year on year, and a decrease of 16.1% year on year.

According to customs data, in September 2019, China exported 197100 tons of aluminum strip products, down 9.7% month on month, down 20.2% year on year; from January to September this year, China exported 2.01 million tons of aluminum strip products, down 3% year on year.

In September 2019, China exported 100300 tons of aluminum foil products, up 2.27% month on month, down 15.08% year on year; from January to September, China exported 981800 tons of aluminum foil, up 2.55% year on year, and the growth rate slowed down. Among them, the increase in the month on month ratio is reflected in the aluminum foil products with tariff No. 76071110, 76071190 and 76072000, while the aluminum foil products with tariff No. 76071120 and 76071900 decreased by 10.35% and 3.18% respectively.

Aluminum production data in the first nine months

 
According to the data of the Department of raw materials industry, from January to September 2019, the output of main aluminum products increased steadily. The output of alumina, electrolytic aluminum and aluminum products were 55.59 million tons, 26.37 million tons and 37.8 million tons, respectively, up 4.7%, 1.1% and 4.8% year on year. From January to August, the aluminum industry realized a profit of 29.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.6%. Among them, the aluminum mining and processing industry realized a profit of 310 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.2%. The aluminum smelting and aluminum rolling processing industry realized a profit of 12.25 billion yuan and 17.3 billion yuan, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 75.3% and 7.8%; the export of aluminum materials was 3.53 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1 percentage points compared with the first quarter, with a cumulative export of 9.7 billion yuan. USD, down 3.4% year on year.

In addition, according to relevant data, affected by the accident of Inner Mongolia aluminum plant in September and the production reduction of Shandong, Xinjiang and other aluminum plants in August, the overall operation capacity of electrolytic aluminum in September remained low, and the production did not increase significantly. In September, China’s electrolytic aluminum output was 2.892 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.70%.

Policy news

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology on October 28, the Ministry of industry and information technology pointed out in its reply to the recommendation No. 7157 of the second session of the 13th National People’s Congress that, in the next step, it will issue the “aluminum industry standard conditions” as soon as possible to promote the orderly development of the industry; it will work together with relevant departments to further consolidate the work mechanism and the long-term mechanism of legalization of backward production capacity departments, and continue to work in the aluminum industry. The industry carried out special energy conservation supervision on the implementation of the energy consumption quota standard, implemented the requirements of the guidance on promoting the withdrawal of backward production capacity by using comprehensive standards in accordance with laws and regulations, strengthened the elimination of backward process equipment, and promoted the orderly withdrawal of uncompetitive production capacity.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic market price of chlorinated paraffin fell this week. On October 21, the average ex factory price of grade-I product of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5200 yuan / ton, and on October 28, the average ex factory price of grade-I product of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5133 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 1.28%. On October 28, the paraffin commodity index was 76.43, the same as yesterday, 30.16% lower than the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 19.70% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5300 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5000 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton. 。 The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: Recently, the international oil price has been rising for four consecutive times and started to fall. The price of upstream liquid wax is stable, the manufacturer is stable to ship, the market of liquid ammonia is slightly rising, and the transaction is low. Downstream demand is weak, manufacturers are more wait-and-see attitude, and trading is weak. The demand side is not favorable for the time being.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 42nd week of 2019 (10.21-10.25), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are epichlorohydrin (8.05%), sulfur (5.05%) and sulfuric acid (4.88%). There are 41 kinds of commodities decreased on a month-on-month basis, 4 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were formaldehyde (37%) (- 9.21%), nitric acid (- 8.62%), acetic acid (- 5.29%). This week’s average was – 0.85%.

III. future forecast

The chlorinated paraffin analyst of business association thinks that the market of chlorinated paraffin is cold at present and the delivery volume is reduced. The downstream procurement is insufficient, and the purchase is just needed. Most enterprises offer stable prices, and the actual deal negotiation is the main part. It is predicted that the chlorinated paraffin will be weak in the later period and fluctuate mainly in narrow range. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream follow-up.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the East China market of lithium carbonate continued to be under pressure in October, and the price still fell all the way without any positive trend. On October 28, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 53400 yuan / ton, which was 3.61% lower than that at the beginning of the month. On October 28, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 60400 yuan / ton, which was 5.03% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline in October, and the price has been declining since the second half of this year. So far, there is no positive trend. After the 11th holiday, the decline of lithium carbonate price gradually slowed down. Downstream buyers hold a cautious view on the price increase plan, and the price trend of lithium carbonate is still not optimistic because there is no obvious improvement in the demand of downstream power market, and there are still a large number of ores and smelting products to be digested in China. Since late October, considering the influence of weather, cost, inventory and other factors, the price of lithium carbonate still fell. It is understood that the price of lithium carbonate has approached the production cost line of domestic smelters, while the supplier is currently under the pressure of high inventory and cash flow, in order to ensure customer resources, it can only be forced to reduce the price for shipment.

At present, in addition to the production and supply of domestic enterprises in the lithium carbonate market, if the import volume of lithium carbonate is also increased, the low-cost strategy is used to ship the lithium carbonate at the cost advantage, which may cause further pressure on the domestic lithium carbonate price in the fourth quarter, which will have a certain impact on whether the price of lithium carbonate can go up. This month, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is in the range of 46000-57000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate is in the range of 54000-64000 yuan / ton.

According to analysts of lithium carbonate of business association, the price of lithium carbonate is still in low volatility. Under the condition of sufficient supply in the market, downstream enterprises are not willing to take over high-priced products, so it is difficult to improve the price. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate in the future will still be in low shock operation.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of October 25, the average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 423.33 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of last week, and the overall operation of the phosphate rock market was stable this week.

II. Market analysis

Products: this week, the phosphorus ore market continues to be weak and stable, and the high-end quotations of mining enterprises in some areas may be slightly reduced. The overall trading atmosphere in the field is weak, and the center of gravity in the field has a downward trend. At present, the new order volume is still small, the enterprise inventory is high, and many mining enterprises still deal with the previous orders, and the overall inventory of mining enterprises is slowly digested. At present, the market of phosphorus ore in Sichuan Province is generally good. The price of 26% high-grade magnesium (magnesium oxide 6) phosphate ore in Mabian, Sichuan Province is around 230 yuan / ton; the market of phosphorus ore in Guizhou Province is stable, and the price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou Province is 360-400 yuan / ton, of which, the price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Huifa, Fuquan, Guizhou Province is 370 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is 330 yuan / ton. The platform price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guanglong mining industry, Kaiyang, Guizhou Province is 370 yuan / ton; the phosphate Market in Hubei Province is weak, and the current price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate is 390-400 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week, the yellow phosphorus market is generally stable, the mainstream suppliers hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the low-end volume has a gradual upward trend. The current market transaction price reference is around 18200-18700 yuan / ton. The phosphoric acid market is generally stable, the market transaction atmosphere is relatively flat, and most enterprises still remain on the sidelines.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business agency, it is expected that the price of the phosphorus ore market will be affected by the environmental inspection in the near future or there is a possibility of a small fluctuation.

I. price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has been declining recently. On the 23rd, the average price of ethylene was 840.75 USD / ton, 2.27% lower than that of 860.25 USD / ton on the 21st, and the current price is 12.97% lower than that of last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: ethylene has declined in recent days. Asian ethylene market prices fell in shock, as of 23, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $678-684 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $768-774 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell, as of 23, the European ethylene market price for FD northwest Europe closed at $991-1002 / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at $908-919 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region remained stable. As of the 23rd, the price was US $523-535 / ton. Overall, the price of upstream crude oil fell a while ago, and the overall ethylene market fell. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on October 23, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose to 55.97 US dollars / barrel, up 1.49 US dollars or 2.7% compared with the previous trading day, while Brent crude oil futures rose to 61.17 US dollars / barrel, up 1.47 US dollars or 2.5% compared with the previous trading day. According to the news, crude oil inventory dropped unexpectedly, while the inventory of refined oil also decreased, which pushed up the oil price. However, the oil price rise was too sudden, and the pull-up effect on ethylene could not be reflected temporarily. In addition, the slowdown of economic growth and geopolitical concerns are difficult to have a greater impact on the market, and the external market of ethylene fell. The price of downstream styrene continued to consolidate and the price of ethanol fell, which could not support the price of ethylene, and had a downward trend.

3. Future forecast:

Ethylene analysts from the chemical branch of business news agency said: the U.S. crude oil inventory fell unexpectedly, and the international oil price rebounded strongly, which was good to support the rise of ethylene price. The next is the impact of economic growth slowdown and the game of oil price. The market is mainly guided by the news, so the data analysts of business club expect that the price of ethylene will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future.

I. price trend:

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the market of acetic anhydride has recently declined, and the price of acetic anhydride has fallen. As of October 23, the average price quoted by acetic anhydride enterprises was 5675.00 yuan / ton, down 225.00 yuan / ton, or 3.81% compared with 5900.00 yuan / ton quoted by acetic anhydride enterprises on October 14, and down 27.23% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

The equipment operation rate of acetic anhydride manufacturers is stable, the supply of acetic anhydride is sufficient, and the power of acetic anhydride rising is insufficient. In recent years, the price of acetic acid has fallen sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride has fallen, the price of methanol has fluctuated, and the cost of acetic anhydride has fallen under great pressure. In general, the market of acetic anhydride in the future is weak.

Industry chain factor analysis:

It can be seen from the figure that in the near future, the price of acetic acid drops sharply, the price of raw materials of acetic anhydride falls, the cost of acetic anhydride falls, and it is bad for acetic anhydride. The cost of acetic anhydride enterprises has dropped significantly, and the pressure of acetic anhydride market decline has increased.

In terms of methanol, the recent methanol shock fell, the cost of acetic anhydride by methanol method decreased, and the market of acetic anhydride was negative. Overall, the negative pressure on acetic anhydride raw materials increased, and the positive weakened. It is expected that the market of acetic anhydride will fall in the future.

3. Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, the price of raw materials for acetic anhydride has dropped sharply recently, the price of acetic acid has fallen sharply, the price of methanol has fallen sharply, the overall cost of acetic anhydride has dropped sharply, which has a certain negative effect on acetic anhydride, the positive effect has weakened, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride has increased. In terms of downstream customers, the price of acetic anhydride is high, and customers are generally motivated to purchase, while downstream customers purchase on demand. On the whole, it is expected that acetic anhydride market in the future will fall under great pressure and the price of acetic anhydride will fall.

On October 21, the rare earth index was 357, down 3 points from yesterday, 64.30% from the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 31.73% higher than the lowest point, 271, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In rare earth metals, the average price of neodymium is 387500 yuan / ton; that of dysprosium is 50000 yuan / ton to 2125000 yuan / ton; that of praseodymium is 10000 yuan / ton to 660000 yuan / ton. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 306500 yuan / ton; that of dysprosium oxide is 50000 yuan / ton to 166500 yuan / ton; that of praseodymium oxide is 10000 yuan / ton to 355000 yuan / ton; and that of neodymium oxide is 307500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy is 387500 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is decreased by 50000 yuan / ton to 1665000 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the market price trend of rare earth has continued to decline. The domestic rare earth market is generally trading. Due to the increase of Myanmar’s supply, the prices of dysprosium, terbium and oxide have been falling continuously, and the prices of heavy rare earth have continued to fall. In the near future, the inquiry list of praseodymium neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide has declined, and the price of light rare earth oxide has declined slightly. In the near future, the light rare earth merchants in the field are not in good condition, and the recent trading situation in the field is general. The supply of rare earth in China is normal. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the environmental protection supervision in the whole country. The production of rare earth is special, especially the radiation hazards of some products make the environmental protection supervision more strict. Metal enterprises and downstream magnetic material enterprises are weak in purchasing after and before the festival due to the surplus of purchasing before the festival. In addition, the price of rare earth has declined compared with the previous period, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in the general market supply of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, which are in normal supply, and the market price trend of rare earth is declining. In the near future There is a strong wait-and-see mood among large enterprise groups in the market. The rare earth market is generally trading, and the trading volume is at a low level.

In the near future, the national environmental protection department has made unremitting efforts to inspect the rare earth industry. Jiangxi Province has strengthened the supervision of the rare earth industry, which has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a relatively low start-up situation, and the market situation is cold, which has brought some good support to the rare earth market. Recently, the supervision group of the State Council went to Jiangxi Province to supervise rare earth enterprises. This supervision focused on the major deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, highlighted the key and difficult issues in the field of economic operation and reform and development, focused on the strong blocking points and pain points reflected by the people and market subjects, and promoted the implementation of various work. In addition, the national development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have taken effective measures to rectify and standardize the industry, innovated and improved the relevant management mechanism, accelerated the construction of an industry development pattern with reasonable industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective resource protection and orderly production and operation, effectively utilized the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource, and the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk. , people in the domestic arena are waiting for the specific good news of the policy and the national reserve.

Rare earth analysts of the business society expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced, and the domestic order of rare earth industry will be rectified, and the supply of rare earth industry in Jiangxi will maintain a low level, but the downstream demand for rare earth will not improve in the near future, and the supply of heavy rare earth import will increase, and the rare earth market is expected to continue to decline.

I. price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic bromine market continued to maintain a steady upward trend this week. The average price of bromine at the beginning of the week was about 30777 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was about 30944 yuan / ton, up 0.54% in the week, down 6.43% compared with the same period last year.

II. Cause analysis

Products: this week, the domestic bromine market operating rate has rebounded, and the production of enterprises is gradually normal, but the spot supply is still slightly tight, the inventory of manufacturers is low, enterprises mostly ship according to orders, and the downstream market just needs to be stable. At present, the mainstream quotation of the enterprise is about 30500-31000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the upstream industry of bromine tends to rise this week: the sulfur market rebounds at the bottom, and the external market supports well, which is about 660 yuan / ton at present; the caustic soda market keeps stable operation in the week, which is about 840 yuan / ton at present; the supply and demand of the soda ash market is in a dynamic equilibrium state, which is slightly up 2.11% in the week, and the current average price is about 1776 yuan / ton; the sulfuric acid demand end supports well, which keeps rising 5.13% in the week. The first 273 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream flame retardant industry of bromine is under construction, with steady demand rising, which is good for bromine price support; pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates and other industries are mainly in rigid demand.

III. future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of business association, at present, the spot supply of domestic bromine enterprises is good, and the overall market trading atmosphere is good. However, with the cold weather, some enterprises will enter a period of shutdown and maintenance, and the spot supply will decline, which is good for the bromine price support. In the long run, the domestic bromine price shows an upward trend.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong fell from 7266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7183.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.15%, 27.29% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the octanol market fell slightly this week, with the Oct. 18 octanol commodity index at 52.82.

II. Market analysis

(I) products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

This week, the factory quotation of the mainstream octanol manufacturers in Shandong slightly fell: hualuhengsheng’s factory quotation of this week’s octanol is 7400 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Jianlan chemical’s quotation of this weekend’s octanol is 7100 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s quotation of this weekend’s octanol is 7050 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week.

(II) industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market fell slightly this week. The quotation dropped from 7550.15 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7466.92 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.10%, down 25.08% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market fell slightly, which had a negative impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

Downstream market: the price of DOP factory fell slightly this week. DOP quotation dropped from 7650.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7600.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.65%, down 23.49% year on year. Downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm for octanol declined, demand for octanol was average, and DOP price drop had a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

III. future forecast

In late October, Shandong octanol market trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in September, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the downstream DOP market began to decline, the downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened, and at present, the octanol inventory in Shandong Province is low, and the delivery is tight. According to the octanol analysts of the business agency, the octanol market in Shandong in late October may be low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic butanone market is weak as a whole this week. As of October 17, based on the quotations of several sample enterprises, the average price of butanone market is around 9016 yuan / ton, down 1.81% compared with October 16.

II. Market analysis

Product: at the beginning of this week, the butanone market is in a weak trend. Until Thursday, the price of butanone market has been reduced by an increasing margin, and the factory has successively reduced the price for shipment. There are more ships in South China this month, the market mentality is not good, the market orders are less, and the market overall mentality is bearish. At present, East China and North China are slightly loose, with the market reference price around 9200 yuan / ton; South China is down to 9600 yuan / ton. The butanone market in Jiangsu continues to decline today, with the reference price of dealers around 9100 yuan / ton; the butanone market in Ningbo is weak as a whole, with the reference price of dealers around 9000 yuan / ton, and some traders are willing to support the price; at present, the overall market mentality is bearish.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business agency, it is expected that the overall trend of the butanone market will remain stable in the short term, and the price fluctuation will not be too large.