Market Overview:

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong continued to decline in April. The average price of dichloromethane in Shandong at the beginning of April was about 2340 yuan / ton. As of April 28, the average price of dichloromethane was about 2000 yuan / ton, an overall decline of 12.28%.

Market analysis:

Products: in April, due to the stable start-up of dichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong Province, sufficient spot supply in the market, but poor demand in the downstream market, on-site supply exceeding demand, competitive shipping of enterprises, more inventory accumulation of enterprises, enterprises to reduce the follow-up inventory pressure and yield profits for shipping, the market price continued to fall. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2000-2050 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 2300 yuan / ton, and East China is about 2000-2200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the domestic methanol market has declined, and the price of each region has been adjusted according to the supply and demand relationship. The downstream just needs to prepare goods, and the traders operate cautiously. At present, the price of 1620 yuan / ton is about; in the month, the liquid chlorine market is high and volatile, the market supply is well supported, and the enterprise’s shipment is acceptable, and the current quotation in Shandong is about 700-900 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is not good, the domestic and foreign demand is not as expected, the market trading is cold, and the current price is around 17000 yuan / ton; the recovery of solvent and pharmaceutical pesticide industry is slow, the demand is light, and the price support for chloroform is insufficient.

Future forecast:

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, at present, the market of dichloromethane is in a situation of oversupply, and the downstream market has not shown any obvious signs of improvement. The majority of carriers are shipping goods, and the industry is in a bad mood, which is expected to be weak in a short period of time.

1、 Price data

This week (4.20-4.26) the price of refined petroleum coke remained stable. According to the data in the business club’s large scale list, the average mainstream price of domestic refineries’ petroleum coke products is 1055.00 yuan / ton.

On April 26, the petroleum coke commodity index was 82.06, unchanged from yesterday, 47.26% lower than 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 22.68% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the overall delivery of refined petroleum coke is relatively stable this week, and the price of petroleum coke is generally stable.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 25.03 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 16.94 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down by – 32.32%; Brent crude oil is 28.08 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 24.87 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down by – 11.43%. WTI futures delivery reduced international oil prices, and the “US Iraq” relationship was once again strained. OPEC + and other oil producing countries gradually put production reduction on the agenda. Active production reduction combined with passive production reduction brought a certain boost to the market, and international oil prices fell first and then rose. Downstream: at the end of the month, the capital pressure of downstream enterprises is high, and the price of prebaked anode in May has not been determined yet; the demand of calcined coking enterprises is general; the inventory pressure of carbon enterprises is high, and the overall demand of downstream enterprises is general, mainly on demand procurement. The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated this week. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market as of April 26 was 12476.67 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there is one kind of commodity in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, with diesel rising (0.67%). There are 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 34.08%), Brent crude oil (- 11.72%), and dimethyl ether (- 7.75%). This week’s average was – 4.6%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke of business association predict that the overall market price of petroleum coke in this week is stable, and it is near the end of the month, and the capital pressure of downstream enterprises is large. The price of prebaked anode in May has not been determined yet. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream, mainly purchasing on demand. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke in the near future will be stable, and some enterprises will fluctuate slightly, and the price range may be around 950-1100 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

Aniline prices fell this week as market supply pressure rose, according to data from the business club’s large list. On Sunday (April 26), prices in Shandong and Nanjing were 5100 yuan / ton, down 7.83% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: after two weeks of hoarding, downstream enterprises have sufficient pure benzene inventory, and this week’s pure benzene market negotiation is light. In addition, crude oil plummeted on Tuesday, and the price of external market fell sharply, driving the price of domestic pure benzene down. Since the middle of March, the port inventory of pure benzene has continued to grow, and the source of imported goods has continued to hit the domestic market. Under the influence of multiple negative, this week’s pure benzene returned to a weak position, and the price fell continuously in the week. Over the weekend (April 26), the listing price of pure benzene was 3000-3500 yuan / ton (average price 3170 yuan / ton), down 5.37% from last week.

Nitric acid continued its downward trend in the week, with the production price in East China at 1500 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 1.1% from last week.

Product: this week, the aniline plant was restarted, the market supply increased, and the price was affected twice.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: near the end of the month delivery, the pure benzene market may have a certain boost. It is expected that the pure benzene market will maintain weak operation in the short term, with a small rebound potential. Crude oil and foreign market have a great impact on domestic pure benzene, and pay attention to the later trend.

The operating rate of aniline plant has increased and the supply has increased. There is no more good news in the upstream. It is expected that the short-term trend will be weak.

Data shows that the natural rubber commodity index on April 22 was 27.97, down 0.5 points from yesterday, 72.03% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and 2.53% higher than the lowest point of 27.28 on April 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

As shown in the figure above, from the beginning of January to the beginning of April 2020, the natural rubber showed a trend of continuous shock and decline after a small surge, and then a small V-shaped rebound. According to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business association, the lowest price of Baodao whole milk in 18 years is 9200 yuan / ton from April 2 to the present half year, and the price in 20 days is about 9810 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4.21% in the first and middle of this month; however, on 21, Shanghai Rubber lowered 300 points, the mainstream market price of spot rubber decreased nearly 300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was 9550 yuan / ton; on 22, Shanghai Rubber explored again, and the spot rubber market price was again quoted Down 100-150 yuan / ton or so; 23 Shanghai glue rebounded again, the spot glue price on the plate up.

According to the data of the previous period, on March 18, 2020, the main contract of Shanghai Jiaotong broke 10000 yuan, which is still fluctuating and decreasing; on November 27, the lowest price in Shanghai Jiaotong was 9300 yuan / ton, which has broken the low value of 9350 yuan / ton that Shanghai Jiaotong went out on November 30, 2015; on November 30, the lowest price in Shanghai Jiaotong was 9115 yuan / ton, which has renewed the new low price; looking back at the historical trend, the lower price of Shanghai Jiaotong is 8 on December 31, 2008 715 yuan / ton, Shanghai rubber is at the lowest price in 11 years. As shown in the figure, after entering April, Shanghai Jiaotong continued to shake and rebound. In the middle of the year, it was a narrow shock around the 10000 yuan pass. On the 21st, Shanghai Jiaotong again fell sharply, breaking the rebound trend. On the 22nd, Shanghai Jiaotong again shook and explored, and the 09 contract closed at 9715 yuan / ton. On the 23rd, Shanghai Jiaotong again rose, and the 09 contract closed at 10025 yuan / ton.

Factor analysis:

Supply: China’s overall rubber cutting is delayed, and parts of southern Hainan have been ready to start cutting in succession. Only a small amount of trial cutting is available in Yunnan, and it is expected to start cutting in succession after May. Affected by many factors such as drought, powdery mildew, low rubber price, high stock and poor demand, the willingness of production areas to start cutting is not strong, and new rubber production has no impact on the current market. Among the rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia, first of all, a few days ago, the acting director general of Thailand rubber administration said that the export prospects of Thailand’s rubber products continued to improve; benefited from the surge in global demand, Malaysia’s recent opening of its border rubber imports and China’s resumption of manufacturing, especially rubber gloves and synthetic rubber. According to the data of Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce, in the first two months of 2020, Thailand’s exports of rubber products and rubber processing products such as automobile tires, rubber gloves and rubber belts increased by 10%. Second, India announced a nationwide blockade. The current situation in India is grim, and there is no clear figure to show how affected the local rubber industry is. Not only the rubber industry, but also the reality of the country determines that it is more difficult than any other country to make a choice. Thirdly, according to the report of the general rubber administration of the Ministry of agriculture, forestry and Fisheries of Cambodia, in the first quarter, Cambodia’s rubber export reached 53057 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The average price of rubber was 1420 US dollars / ton, and the revenue reached 75.341 million US dollars. At present, Cambodia’s rubber planting area is 405485 hectares, of which the rubber cutting area is 250750 hectares, equivalent to 62% of the planting area. The main export destinations are China, Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia.

Inventory: data shows that as of April 17, the natural rubber inventory of the previous period was 240799 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 236950 tons. At present, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has increased slightly, and the inventory of rubber trade outside the zone has exceeded 800000 tons, a new high since the statistics. The inventory of Tianjiao in the downstream factories varies from 15-60 days, and the manufacturers are not willing to purchase.

Import and export: according to customs data, in March 2020, China imported 62000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), up 3.6% year on year. From January to March 2020, China imported 1.659 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), up 5.6% from 1.571 million tons in the same period of 2019.

Demand: according to the National Bureau of statistics, China’s output of outer tubes in March was 71.404 million, down 7.8% year on year. From January to March, 152059000 outer tubes were produced, down 19.4% year on year. In recent years, foreign tire orders have decreased significantly. As of April 16, the operating rates of all steel tire and half steel tire in China were 63.86% and 62.03% respectively, down about 10% from the same period of last year. Although most of the domestic automobile enterprises have resumed work, the overall consumption of rubber is still weak due to the fact that the foreign industrial chain has not yet returned to normal, and many brand tire manufacturers have shut down their factories, resulting in poor demand. From January to March 2020, China’s automobile production and sales totaled 3.474 million and 3.672 million, a year-on-year decrease of 45.2% and 42.4%; among them, China’s automobile sales volume in March was 1.43 million, a year-on-year decrease of 43.3%, a significant increase compared with 80% in February. On April 22, IHS Markit lowered its forecast for global auto sales. It predicted that this year’s global new car sales would drop 22% year on year to 70.3 million units, and the sales of new cars in China, the world’s largest auto market, would drop 15.5% to 21 million units this year. As car sales decline, so will production. The agency expects global light vehicle production to fall 21.2% year-on-year this year, 18.8 million fewer than in 2019. In view of the current situation, it is expected that more automobile consumption stimulus measures will be introduced and the stimulus will be increased.

Macro: US crude oil futures collapsed on the 20th, once a negative value. Under special circumstances, global demand shrank, storage capacity was in a hurry, and investors’ pessimism was serious. Affected by this, chemical products in the domestic futures market fell sharply, with a significant decline in Shanghai rubber. The main contracts of Shanghai Rubber fell 3.2% to 9800 yuan per ton in 2009, while the main energy contracts of the previous period fell 3.1% to 8045 yuan per ton in 2006. Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) futures fell on the 20th, the biggest one-day decline in three weeks.

Future forecast:

According to the analysis of the business community, the current stock of spot rubber is high, the demand is low, the price of rubber continues to be low, and the weather is dry, which leads to the delay of rubber cutting. At present, the willingness of rubber farmers to cut rubber is not strong, but from the perspective of seasonality, the output may gradually release from next month. Under the current special situation, the weak global automobile demand determines the weak rubber consumption demand, and the epidemic control situation becomes the most direct factor determining the demand. In this context, Tianjiao market is likely to continue to bear pressure. In the future, if China’s domestic automobile consumption situation changes and domestic demand is gradually driven, Tianjiao market may improve; in addition, we need to pay attention to the impact of crude oil price changes on commodity futures market.

Magnesium market trend

On April 21, 2020, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in main domestic production areas was lowered. At present, the main quotation range is 13100-13500 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation is the main part.

According to the follow-up information of the business agency, the ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 13100-13200 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 13200-13400 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 13300-13500 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 13150-13200 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic market on the 21st was 13133.33 yuan / ton, which was 14166.67 yuan / ton compared with the market price at the beginning of the year (1.1), a decrease of 7.29%.

The price of magnesium ingot continues to move down. At present, the price has reached a low level in nearly 4 years, as shown in the following figure:

 
The price of magnesium ingots continued to move down. On the one hand, due to the short-term imbalance between supply and demand, the export was severely restricted by the epidemic, and some magnesium enterprises in the main production areas were willing to ship at a high price due to the strong demand for payment collection; on the other hand, the recent general decline of bulk commodities, the lower willingness to receive goods, and the willingness of traders to store goods fell to the freezing point, and the procurement was mainly based on rigid demand, small quantity and multiple batches The market is more cautious. The overall purchase volume of the market is not much, and the trading is relatively light.

At the same time, due to the serious decline in the price of magnesium ingots, it is reported that some magnesium ingot enterprises have plans to reduce production and protect prices. In the near future, the supply of low-cost magnesium ingots has decreased, and the price has begun to stop falling and stabilize, with a slight recovery.

Future forecast

The downstream demand is weak, and the rigid demand procurement is the main demand. It is expected that the magnesium market game will intensify in the near future, and the stable operation in the near future will be the main one. 13000 frontline will obtain strong support, and pay attention to the change of the downstream procurement rhythm in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

On April 19, the antimony commodity index was 51.68, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.49% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 10.00% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: the price of antimony oxide was stable on Wednesday, with 99.5% at 33500 yuan / ton and 99.8% at 35000 yuan / ton as of Friday.

Domestic market: the antimony ingot Market has remained stable this week. Influenced by international events, the antimony industry chain has been in a light market. As of Friday, the prices of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingots reached 35500 yuan / ton, 1 × antimony ingots reached 36000 yuan / ton, 0 × antimony ingots reached 37000 yuan / ton, and the average price of 2 × high bismuth antimony ingots reached 33250 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with last week.

Industry: this week, the basic metals rose under the stimulation of a lot of more information. At the beginning of this week, OPEC + oil producing countries reached a historic production reduction agreement. Subsequently, European and American countries successively introduced various plans to restart the economy, boosting market confidence. The domestic economic data released in the first quarter showed that the economy had gone out of an obvious positive trend compared with last month. The central bank implemented targeted reduction and other measures for small and medium-sized banks.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there are 10 commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which the top three commodities are zinc (2.63%), aluminum (1.75%) and tin (1.71%). There are 7 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products are titanium concentrate (- 3.28%), neodymium (- 1.39%) and silicon (- 1.21%). This week’s average was 0.12%.

3、 Future prospects

Next week, most of the basic metal market will be supported by long single transactions, and the spot market will maintain a certain degree of activity and persistence. Today, Xinhua news agency has announced that the 17th session of the 13th National People’s Congress will be held from April 26 to 29, and the market expects more policy guidance. Bulls can still make a difference, and each basic metal will be ready to make a breakthrough.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on April 17, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3617 yuan / ton, up 1.88% from last Friday.

On April 17, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 3405 yuan / ton, an increase of 80 yuan / ton or 1.76% compared with that at the beginning of the week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of April 16, the glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 1150400 tons, an increase of 5200 tons or 0.45% compared with last Thursday, and an increase of 2200 tons or 0.19% compared with this Monday. Although the inventory rise is small, the total volume is still high.

In terms of shipment, this week, the main port of Zhangjiagang delivered about 6400 tons per day, and Taicang delivered about 2800 tons per day to the two warehouses. Although it is up from last week, it is not optimistic compared with the same period last year.

At present, the operating rate of glycol is about 55.2%, which is lower than that of last week. The operating rate of polyester downstream is about 85.38%, which is slightly higher than that of last week.

In terms of units, Xinjiang Tianye 350000t / a ethylene glycol unit will be shut down for maintenance on April 5; Wuhan Petrochemical 280000t / a unit will be shut down for maintenance on April 12, and it is estimated that the maintenance will take about 20 days for Shanxi Yangmei group to level the 200000 t / a unit for maintenance on March 28, with the duration to be determined.

3、 Analysis and prediction

At the beginning of this week, an OPEC + production reduction agreement was reached, and the glycol market was once encouraged. However, as the global public health events become more and more serious, there is no sign of improvement in a short period of time, resulting in blocked downstream exports. At the same time, although crude oil production has been reduced, the oil price continues to fall, which also poses a test on the cost of glycol. Under the attack of upstream and downstream, the price of glycol continued to be weak this week. Although the decline was not big, it was difficult to see an improvement.

Although the spot price of glycol rebounded on Friday, crude oil demand did not rise substantially. In terms of domestic production capacity, although the operating rate of coal-fired units has declined, the capacity of oil-fired units has increased significantly compared with last year, and the source of imported goods has continued to flow. Under the condition that the supply is far greater than the demand, it is obviously very difficult for the price of glycol to keep rising.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 × 3)

2. Latest price (April 16, 2020): 10916.67 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 10300-10500 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 10700-10800 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 10700-10900 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 11300-11500 yuan / ton, in Tianjin is 11100-11200 yuan / ton, in Huangpu is 10900-11100 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

Export transactions are light, foreign trade is weak, and spot trade of port traders is relatively light at present; domestic trade and investment are relatively good, but based on the weak market of downstream products, the market has a low willingness to store goods, and the willingness to hold down prices is rising.

4. Future forecast: it is expected that the short-term operation of silicon metal will be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on April 15, the average domestic market price of soda ash in East China was about 1510 yuan / ton, 26.6% lower than the price at the beginning of 2018. Now the overall price has hovered near the cost line. On April 14, the commodity index of light soda ash was 80.17, flat with yesterday, down 31.98% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.95% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: in the first quarter of 2020, affected by domestic public health events, the start of soda ash manufacturers dropped sharply, and there were many manufacturers that stopped production. The data showed that the average start-up rate of domestic manufacturers was reduced to about 70%. With the acceleration of resumption of work and production, the start-up of soda ash manufacturers has increased rapidly. At present, the average start-up rate of domestic soda ash manufacturers is about 80%, which once led to the high domestic soda ash inventory. Some data show that as of April 9, the total warehouse of domestic soda ash manufacturers is about 1.4099 million tons, an increase of 12.21% month on month. Domestic soda consolidation market has been running for a long time. At present, the overall trend of soda ash in East China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1350-1500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1400-1550 yuan / ton. The market transaction is general. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak in the short term. In North China, the market price of soda ash in narrow range is about 1450-1550 yuan / ton for light soda ash and 1500-1600 yuan / ton for heavy soda ash. There are not many transactions in the market. It is expected that the market price of soda ash in narrow range will be operated in the short term. The domestic soda ash market is weak, the market atmosphere is flat, the transaction follow-up is poor, the enterprise inventory pressure is large, the enterprise overall presents the situation of poor delivery.

Demand side: the demand side support for glass, metallurgy, papermaking, printing and dyeing, synthetic detergent, petrochemical industry, food, medicine and health, etc. downstream of soda ash is still weak, the transaction is tepid and tepid, and the price of the enterprise keeps stable. In terms of the industrial chain, the price of glass paper in the downstream shows a downward trend, with a general demand for soda ash. The price trend of corrugated base paper and glass

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 14th week of 2020 (4.6-4.10), there are 2 kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor alkali industry, 2 kinds of commodities falling and 1 kind of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities that rose were hydrochloric acid (6.58%) and PVC (4.62%); the main commodities that fell were calcium carbide (- 4.41%) and caustic soda (- 2.30%). This week’s average was 0.9%.

The Soda Industry Association issues a production restriction notice, or injects a “booster” into the soda enterprise

In view of the high inventory of soda ash enterprises and the impact of the continuous downturn in the market, the soda ash industry association requires that during the period from April 18, 2020 to October 18, 2020, soda ash enterprises reduce 30% load for production to promote the development of the whole industry. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash will be reduced by at least 5.6 million tons at that time. The Soda Industry Association’s notice of production reduction may be beneficial to the price of soda.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of soda ash of business association, the domestic market of soda ash continues to be depressed, the price of manufacturers has fallen to the historical low level within 3 years, and even some manufacturers have fallen below the cost line. The overall trading atmosphere of the market is general, the transaction is not warm, and the market pessimism is lingering. The soda ash industry association has issued a production limit notice, which has boosted the downstream demand for soda ash, consumed the high inventory of soda ash, or injected into the market of soda ash“ Cardiotonic. The price of soda ash may be favorable and rebound, depending on the downstream market demand and the production reduction and operation of the manufacturer’s devices.

1、 Price trend

Take the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, for example. According to the data in the bulk list of business agencies, the price of titanium dioxide is stable this week, with an average price of 15733.33 yuan / ton

2、 Market analysis

Product: the market price of titanium dioxide this week is generally stable. In terms of the current international situation, the export order of titanium dioxide shrinks and the domestic mainstream price is stable. At present, the factory price of rutile titanium dioxide, anatase titanium dioxide and chlorination titanium dioxide is 14900-16300 yuan / ton, 12300-14000 yuan / ton and 17500-21000 yuan / ton respectively.

Industry chain: this week, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has been stable and decreased. Due to the substantial increase in the operating rate, the market supply has increased significantly, and the actual unit price of some medium and concentrate suppliers has been slightly reduced. The price of 38 titanium ore is 890-930 yuan / ton, 46, 10 titanium ore is 1470-1550 yuan / ton, 47, 20 titanium ore is 1500-1550 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts believe that: this week domestic titanium dioxide market price stability. Affected by international form, titanium dioxide export orders contracted. In the short term, when the stock pressure in the market is not great, the actual price of the goods holder is mainly firm and stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly a single negotiation.