Data shows that the natural rubber commodity index on April 22 was 27.97, down 0.5 points from yesterday, 72.03% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and 2.53% higher than the lowest point of 27.28 on April 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

As shown in the figure above, from the beginning of January to the beginning of April 2020, the natural rubber showed a trend of continuous shock and decline after a small surge, and then a small V-shaped rebound. According to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business association, the lowest price of Baodao whole milk in 18 years is 9200 yuan / ton from April 2 to the present half year, and the price in 20 days is about 9810 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4.21% in the first and middle of this month; however, on 21, Shanghai Rubber lowered 300 points, the mainstream market price of spot rubber decreased nearly 300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was 9550 yuan / ton; on 22, Shanghai Rubber explored again, and the spot rubber market price was again quoted Down 100-150 yuan / ton or so; 23 Shanghai glue rebounded again, the spot glue price on the plate up.

According to the data of the previous period, on March 18, 2020, the main contract of Shanghai Jiaotong broke 10000 yuan, which is still fluctuating and decreasing; on November 27, the lowest price in Shanghai Jiaotong was 9300 yuan / ton, which has broken the low value of 9350 yuan / ton that Shanghai Jiaotong went out on November 30, 2015; on November 30, the lowest price in Shanghai Jiaotong was 9115 yuan / ton, which has renewed the new low price; looking back at the historical trend, the lower price of Shanghai Jiaotong is 8 on December 31, 2008 715 yuan / ton, Shanghai rubber is at the lowest price in 11 years. As shown in the figure, after entering April, Shanghai Jiaotong continued to shake and rebound. In the middle of the year, it was a narrow shock around the 10000 yuan pass. On the 21st, Shanghai Jiaotong again fell sharply, breaking the rebound trend. On the 22nd, Shanghai Jiaotong again shook and explored, and the 09 contract closed at 9715 yuan / ton. On the 23rd, Shanghai Jiaotong again rose, and the 09 contract closed at 10025 yuan / ton.

Factor analysis:

Supply: China’s overall rubber cutting is delayed, and parts of southern Hainan have been ready to start cutting in succession. Only a small amount of trial cutting is available in Yunnan, and it is expected to start cutting in succession after May. Affected by many factors such as drought, powdery mildew, low rubber price, high stock and poor demand, the willingness of production areas to start cutting is not strong, and new rubber production has no impact on the current market. Among the rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia, first of all, a few days ago, the acting director general of Thailand rubber administration said that the export prospects of Thailand’s rubber products continued to improve; benefited from the surge in global demand, Malaysia’s recent opening of its border rubber imports and China’s resumption of manufacturing, especially rubber gloves and synthetic rubber. According to the data of Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce, in the first two months of 2020, Thailand’s exports of rubber products and rubber processing products such as automobile tires, rubber gloves and rubber belts increased by 10%. Second, India announced a nationwide blockade. The current situation in India is grim, and there is no clear figure to show how affected the local rubber industry is. Not only the rubber industry, but also the reality of the country determines that it is more difficult than any other country to make a choice. Thirdly, according to the report of the general rubber administration of the Ministry of agriculture, forestry and Fisheries of Cambodia, in the first quarter, Cambodia’s rubber export reached 53057 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The average price of rubber was 1420 US dollars / ton, and the revenue reached 75.341 million US dollars. At present, Cambodia’s rubber planting area is 405485 hectares, of which the rubber cutting area is 250750 hectares, equivalent to 62% of the planting area. The main export destinations are China, Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia.

Inventory: data shows that as of April 17, the natural rubber inventory of the previous period was 240799 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 236950 tons. At present, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has increased slightly, and the inventory of rubber trade outside the zone has exceeded 800000 tons, a new high since the statistics. The inventory of Tianjiao in the downstream factories varies from 15-60 days, and the manufacturers are not willing to purchase.

Import and export: according to customs data, in March 2020, China imported 62000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), up 3.6% year on year. From January to March 2020, China imported 1.659 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), up 5.6% from 1.571 million tons in the same period of 2019.

Demand: according to the National Bureau of statistics, China’s output of outer tubes in March was 71.404 million, down 7.8% year on year. From January to March, 152059000 outer tubes were produced, down 19.4% year on year. In recent years, foreign tire orders have decreased significantly. As of April 16, the operating rates of all steel tire and half steel tire in China were 63.86% and 62.03% respectively, down about 10% from the same period of last year. Although most of the domestic automobile enterprises have resumed work, the overall consumption of rubber is still weak due to the fact that the foreign industrial chain has not yet returned to normal, and many brand tire manufacturers have shut down their factories, resulting in poor demand. From January to March 2020, China’s automobile production and sales totaled 3.474 million and 3.672 million, a year-on-year decrease of 45.2% and 42.4%; among them, China’s automobile sales volume in March was 1.43 million, a year-on-year decrease of 43.3%, a significant increase compared with 80% in February. On April 22, IHS Markit lowered its forecast for global auto sales. It predicted that this year’s global new car sales would drop 22% year on year to 70.3 million units, and the sales of new cars in China, the world’s largest auto market, would drop 15.5% to 21 million units this year. As car sales decline, so will production. The agency expects global light vehicle production to fall 21.2% year-on-year this year, 18.8 million fewer than in 2019. In view of the current situation, it is expected that more automobile consumption stimulus measures will be introduced and the stimulus will be increased.

Macro: US crude oil futures collapsed on the 20th, once a negative value. Under special circumstances, global demand shrank, storage capacity was in a hurry, and investors’ pessimism was serious. Affected by this, chemical products in the domestic futures market fell sharply, with a significant decline in Shanghai rubber. The main contracts of Shanghai Rubber fell 3.2% to 9800 yuan per ton in 2009, while the main energy contracts of the previous period fell 3.1% to 8045 yuan per ton in 2006. Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) futures fell on the 20th, the biggest one-day decline in three weeks.

Future forecast:

According to the analysis of the business community, the current stock of spot rubber is high, the demand is low, the price of rubber continues to be low, and the weather is dry, which leads to the delay of rubber cutting. At present, the willingness of rubber farmers to cut rubber is not strong, but from the perspective of seasonality, the output may gradually release from next month. Under the current special situation, the weak global automobile demand determines the weak rubber consumption demand, and the epidemic control situation becomes the most direct factor determining the demand. In this context, Tianjiao market is likely to continue to bear pressure. In the future, if China’s domestic automobile consumption situation changes and domestic demand is gradually driven, Tianjiao market may improve; in addition, we need to pay attention to the impact of crude oil price changes on commodity futures market.