It can be seen from the above figure that the mainstream market price of urea in China fell sharply this month: the price of urea fell from 3034.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2392.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 21.16%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 14.88% year-on-year.

On July 28, the urea commodity index was 111.26, down 1.76 points from yesterday, down 26.96% from 152.33 points (2022-05-15), the highest point in the cycle, and up 100.11% from 55.60 points, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In July, the price of urea fell sharply, with a maximum decline of 1.95% in a single week. Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream market price of urea in China fell sharply this month.

The upstream support weakened, the downstream demand was general, and the urea price fell

According to the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea overall fell slightly this month: the price of liquefied natural gas rose first and then fell. The price rose from 5862 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 5992 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.22%, an increase of 52.47% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Anthracite prices continued to fall. The price of anthracite (washing medium block, volatile ≤ 8%) was 1714.3 yuan / ton, a decrease of 143.2 yuan / ton or 7.7% compared with the previous period. The price of liquid ammonia fell sharply, from 4790 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3690 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 22.96%, and a year-on-year decrease of 23.12% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell sharply this month, from 9233.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7233.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 21.66%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is weakened, and industrial demand is insufficient. Agricultural demand in some areas has been eliminated. The operating load of compound fertilizer and rubber plate factories is low, the industrial demand is insufficient, the price of melamine has fallen sharply, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement has weakened. From the perspective of supply: in the recent overhaul of some urea manufacturers, the daily output of urea fell to about 140000 tons, and the daily output of urea may be further reduced in early August. In terms of exports: from January to June 2022, China’s total urea exports were 724100 tons, a decrease of about 1.7 million tons over the same period last year.

Urea may rebound at the bottom in the future

The urea market may hit the bottom and rebound in the first ten days of August. Due to insufficient demand and export restrictions, the price of urea has fallen sharply recently. However, in early August, compound fertilizer manufacturers may start autumn fertilizer production, with insufficient inventory and increased orders. In addition, the current urea price has fallen to the expectations of some manufacturers, and there may be a wave of bargain hunting purchase in the near future. Urea may hit the bottom and rebound in the future

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market fell first and then slightly recovered in July. As of July 27, the average market price was 6062 yuan / ton, down 8.27% from the beginning of the month and up 12.59% year-on-year.

Statistics of domestic PTA device changes in July

Production enterprise, unit capacity (10000 tons / year), unit change

Yisheng Ningbo., 200., parking

Yangzi Petrochemical. 65. Overhaul on March 14

Yadong petrochemical., 70%, load 90%

Honggang petrochemical., 220, overhaul on March 16

Hengli Dalian, 250, overhaul on July 2

Fuhaichuang, 450, parking at night on July 11

Baihong, 250, load 80%, maintain for a week

In terms of supply, Hengli Dalian 2.5 million ton plant was overhauled on July 2, fuhaichuang 4.5 million ton plant was shut down in the evening of July 11, Ningbo Yisheng 2million ton plant is currently in the shutdown state, Yadong Petrochemical 700000 ton plant load is 90%, and the restart time is to be determined. Baihong’s 2.5 million ton unit reduced its load to 80% and is expected to recover in one week. PTA operating rate remained low near 73%.

In July, the crude oil market was mainly affected by the strength of the US dollar, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increased the risk of economic recession; Superimposed on the repeated outbreaks in Asia, the possible blockade measures suppress demand, and the oil grid shocks weaken. As of July 26, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $94.98 / barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $99.46 / barrel.

In July, the downstream polyester market fluctuated and fell, with a reversal at the end of the month. With the red of raw materials, the market ushered in a bottom rebound. Polyester mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-200 yuan / ton. However, the inventory is still at a historically high level. According to statistics, the average total inventory of polyester filament is 35.5 days, an increase of 15.4 days compared with the same period last year. At present, the startup rate of most weaving factories is low, and the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains around 50%.

Business analysts believe that the wait-and-see sentiment in the oil market is intensifying near the Fed’s interest rate hike. The downstream polyester plant will be affected by limited electricity and sporadic epidemic, and the production reduction will be gradually implemented, and the demand side will also be further weakened. However, the spot of PTA supply side is still tight, and some PTA devices still have maintenance plans. It is expected that the demand in August is still dominated by costs without significant improvement, and PTA is expected to continue to be under pressure.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate mainstream was 10125.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate mainstream was 10100.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 0.25%, and the current price increased by 28.83% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell slightly in July. It can be seen from the above figure that the potassium carbonate market has continued to rise since 2022, but the market began to fall this month. This is mainly because the supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal and the price continues to fall. The supply of border trade goods has arrived one after another, and the supply of goods in the market is sufficient. The downstream demand was low, the market transaction was light, and the potassium carbonate market fluctuated and fell. According to the statistics of business agency, the recent mainstream ex factory quotation range of industrial grade potassium carbonate is about 9800-10200 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

The domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell in July. The source of border trade goods has arrived in Hong Kong one after another, and the market supply is sufficient. At present, the ex factory price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi potassium chloride distribution quotation is 5300 yuan / ton. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5250 yuan / ton. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton.

The price of potash fertilizer in the international market continues to decline, and the cost support is general. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly fall in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

Trade name: urea

Latest price (July 25):2522 yuan / ton

On July 25, the domestic comprehensive price of urea fell slightly, which was 95 yuan / ton lower than that on July 22, a decrease of 3.63%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.28%. The upstream cost support is general, the downstream agricultural demand is weakened, and the industrial demand is insufficient. The sales pressure of urea manufacturers increased, and the price was reduced to attract orders. During the overhaul of some manufacturers, the daily output of urea fell to about 147000 tons, and there is still a decline expectation.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price may be adjusted at a low level, and the average market price is about 2520 yuan / ton.

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business community, as of July 22, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3612.50 yuan / ton, down 3.67% from 3750.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week, down 12.42% at the beginning of the month, and the market was weak and downward during the week. As of July 22, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the week were as follows:

Region, July 15, July 22, price rise and fall

South China. 3650 yuan / ton. 3550 yuan / ton., -100

In North China, 3600 yuan / ton, 3500 yuan / ton, -100

Shandong Province. 3650 yuan / ton. 3450 yuan / ton., -200

Jiangsu region. 3550 yuan / ton. 3450 yuan / ton., -100

Zhejiang region. 3650 yuan / ton. 3550 yuan / ton., -100

The domestic acetic acid market is weak and downward, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the enthusiasm to enter the market is not good, a small number of purchases are dominated by rigid demand, and the supply side of the market is relatively sufficient. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, the price of goods holders is constantly reduced, the market supply and demand game, the operator’s mentality is bearish, and the acetic acid market is weak under the mood of buying up or not buying down.

The price trend of downstream acetic anhydride continued to decline. As of the 22nd, the ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 6475 yuan / ton, down 3.00% from the price of 6675 yuan / ton on July 16. The upstream raw material market is weak, the acetic acid price is lowered, the acetic anhydride support is weakened, the downstream demand is general, and the acetic anhydride market follows the downward trend.

The downstream ethyl acetate Market was weak. As of the 22nd, the average ex factory price of ethyl acetate in East China was 7466 yuan / ton, down 0.89% from the price of 7533 yuan / ton on July 16. The decline in the upstream acetic acid Market eased the cost pressure to a certain extent, but the downstream demand was sluggish, resulting in the weak operation of the ethyl acetate Market.

According to the acetic acid analysts of business club, the supply and demand game in the domestic acetic acid market continues, the on-site supply is relatively sufficient, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the price of cargo holders is lowered, the profit is transferred, the downstream market entry is still not significantly improved, and the on-site bearish is obvious. Considering that the acetic acid price has fallen near the cost line, it is expected that the acetic acid price will fluctuate slightly in the future, and the overall market is weak. Pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, titanium dioxide prices fell this week. The average price of titanium dioxide in the four countries last week was 19000 yuan / ton, and the average price this Thursday was 18866.67 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.7% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market price continued to decline this week. On the whole, the export market is OK. Domestic titanium dioxide is in the off-season, the market trading is relatively light, the market is weak, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, the order is cautious, and the enthusiasm to buy is limited. Titanium dioxide manufacturers have great inventory pressure, and the ex factory price has been reduced. Up to now, the quotation of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is between 17500-19500 yuan / ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is between 16000-18500 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region was strong this week. Downstream buyers are under great pressure, mainly on the sidelines, and the actual transaction situation is general. Small and medium-sized miners are under great pressure, and their quotations are firm and stable. Up to now, the quotation excluding tax of 38-42 grade titanium ore is about 1530-1580 yuan / ton, the quotation excluding tax of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2220-2280 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2400-2450 yuan / ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate remains strong, and the transaction price of the actual order is negotiated.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the prices of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers fell this week According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell this week, and the quotation was reduced from 922 yuan / ton last Thursday to 872 yuan / ton this Thursday, with a reduction of 5.42%. The upstream sulfur market has fallen sharply recently, and the cost support is insufficient. Downstream hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide, ammonium sulfate market fell slightly, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for sulfuric acid procurement is general.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts at business club believed that the domestic titanium dioxide market price continued to decline this week, the domestic market was weak and declining, and the atmosphere on the floor was empty. The price of raw titanium concentrate was relatively deadlocked, the price of sulfuric acid fell, and the cost support was weak. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated.

After watching the trend of ethylene oxide on the floor for a long time, the price has been lowered again with raw materials recently. At present, the low-cost supply has fallen below the support level of 8000 yuan / ton. The price of ethylene oxide fell sharply by 500 yuan / ton in the week, because the decline in the price of ethylene at the cost side depressed the market mentality and weakened the cost side. Downstream enterprises are mainly just in need of follow-up, the performance of cement water reducer is poor, the market fell during the week, the progress of infrastructure construction was dragged down by extreme weather, and the support of demand side is weak.

Forecast: due to the lack of obvious positive support in the overall monomer market, the wait-and-see mood is very strong, and the mentality of the industry is cautious and short.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of July 19, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16775.00 yuan / ton. The price of this week was narrow and strong. Compared with the same period last week, the price was stable, the price fluctuation range was small, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton, the overall PMMA market price remained stable, the focus of negotiation was stable, the price range of this week was small, and the overall market supply and demand was balanced.

This week, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA is 16775.00 yuan / ton. The overall market is mainly stable, and the price change is not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains about 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants actively ship and give up orders. Compared with last week, the price of PMMA remains unchanged. The price of PMMA is mainly stable, the overall supply and demand is balanced, and just need to purchase. At present, the focus of negotiation is stable, and the supply side is normal.

Rubber and plastic index: on July 18, the rubber and plastic index was 722 points, down 5 points from yesterday, down 31.89% from the peak of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 36.74% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

PMMA analysts of business news agency believe that PMMA prices are expected to run smoothly in the short term. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

Price dynamics: on July 18, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical offered 8950 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical offered 8950 yuan / ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical offered 9150 yuan / ton;

East China: the quotation of Yangzi Petrochemical is 9150 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9150 yuan / ton;

Central China: the quotation of Wuhan ethylene is 9150 yuan / ton;

Others: Jingbo Petrochemical offers 8650 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 9100 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 8603 yuan / ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8800 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, the market expressed doubts about the output increasing capacity of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), mainly because of its limited space for residual capacity; In addition, Saudi Arabia said it would not immediately increase oil production, and the tight supply is expected to boost oil prices.

Today, Jingbo Petrochemical reduced the price of pure benzene by 70 yuan / ton; Xinhai Petrochemical raised the price of pure benzene by 100 yuan / ton.

Crude oil rebounded last Friday, and pure benzene in the outer disk fell slightly. After the decline of pure benzene, the downstream demand followed up, and the spot price rebounded slightly. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 8600-9150 yuan / ton.

This week (July 11-15), the domestic liquid ammonia market rebounded after falling. According to the monitoring of the business community, the weekly increase was 4.32%, and the cumulative increase this week reached 300-500 yuan. Many large factories have raised prices continuously this week, with a cumulative increase of more than 300 yuan. However, urea is still low, and the downstream demand is still weak. At present, the reduction of ammonia in the region is affected by the load reduction of some enterprises, the supply pressure is significantly relieved, and the inventory of enterprises and markets is still in the process of de stocking. As of the weekend, the mainstream price in this region is 3750-3950 yuan / ton.

From the above figure, the profit of liquid ammonia industrial chain is still in a reasonable range, and the price of liquid ammonia rebounds, but the downstream is generally relatively weak. Due to the weakening of seasonal demand, it is still difficult to stop the decline in the middle and lower reaches, such as urea and compound fertilizer. Enterprise profits meet the test, and ammonium chloride, urea and melamine all fall to varying degrees.

Business news agency believes that at present, the supply pressure of domestic liquid ammonia market has been greatly relieved. Previously, affected by the sharp downward price, the load of devices has been reduced and increased, and the influence of maintenance enterprises, the price of liquid ammonia has continued to rebound. However, considering that the decline of downstream compound fertilizer is difficult to stop, and the demand is still constrained, it is expected that liquid ammonia may not continue to rise.