According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of February 26, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 10233.33 yuan / ton. The domestic DMF price continued to rise, rising by 7.34% compared with the same period last week, and 3.72% compared with the same period last month. The negotiation atmosphere was positive, showing a broad upward signal again. At present, the shipment is smooth, and the supply side is in short supply.

This week, the focus of the domestic DMF market was high, the inventory remained low, the supply of spot goods was tight, the price negotiated by factories was not high, the demand increased, the downstream followed up actively, the overall market of methanol in the upstream was stable and rising, the current reference price of DMF was 10550-10750 yuan / T in East China market and 10950-11000 yuan / T in South China market.

On February 25, the chemical industry index was 1030 points, up 9 points from yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 72.24% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business news agency think: Recently, the market price of DMF has risen rapidly, Factory supply side is tight, and the official account of the downstream is not decreasing. In the short term, the focus of the negotiations continues to run high and the trend is slowing down. Master the price of goods).

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6575.00 yuan / ton on January 1, and 6625.00 yuan / ton on December 25, with an increase of 0.76%. The current price has increased by 0.76% on a month on month basis, and the current price has increased by 3.92% on a year-on-year basis.

In February, the domestic potash market rose. Before the Spring Festival, the price fluctuated and consolidated. After the spring, with the downstream factories gradually started, the purchasing was more active, the trading atmosphere of potash market was acceptable, and the market rose slightly. According to the statistics of the business society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6400-6700 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the different procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers was temporarily stable: on February 25, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 2050 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2230 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable. The actual transaction price was mainly through negotiation. In February, the transaction of potassium chloride market was fair, and the price was high, which could give some support to potassium carbonate.

Potassium carbonate analysts of business news agency believe that potassium chloride has a rising trend in the near future, some traders are reluctant to sell, the market supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of February 24, the average factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 8366 yuan / ton, up 766 yuan / ton or 10.09% compared with the price on February 23 (7600 yuan / ton). Compared with the price on February 10 (reference average price of butanone 7183 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1183 yuan / ton, or 16.47%. Compared with the price at the beginning of the month (participation price 7116 yuan / ton on February 1), the price increased by 1250 yuan / ton, or 17.56%.

In the half month before the Spring Festival, the domestic butanone market went up steadily as a whole. One week before the Spring Festival, affected by factors such as logistics outage, the transaction of butanone was not good, but the low price shipment was better in the early stage, and the overall inventory pressure of domestic butanone factories was not big.

Butanone rose more than 16% after the festival

After the Spring Festival, on the 18th, the trading atmosphere of butanone market was cold. Individual spot butanone traders were not optimistic about the short-term market. In a suspicious state of mind, spot butanone traders in Shandong Province actively shipped butanone and reduced the ex factory price of butanone by 100-150 yuan / ton. The reference price of low end butanone in Shandong Province was 7000-7100 yuan / ton. Shandong’s major manufacturers took the lead in raising the ex factory price of butanone to 7600 yuan / ton on the 20th, up 400 yuan / ton compared with the year before. The domestic mainstream reference price of butanone was around 7000-7600 yuan / ton. Then, the butanone market as a whole steadily dominated. On the 24th, Shandong and Jiangsu’s butanone market rose by 400-1000 yuan / ton It rose to 8200-8500 yuan / ton, with an average price reference of 8366 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, it increased by more than 10% in a single day. Compared with the early spring festival, it increased by more than 16% after the festival. At present, the trading atmosphere of butanone market has gradually recovered, the trading volume of new orders is fair, and the market is in a high and firm operation.

Internationally, the recent international crude oil market prices continue to hit a year’s high, as of the 23rd, WTI oil prices at 62.5 U.S. dollars / barrel. According to the monitoring of the business community, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil have increased by more than 16% since February. The good news of the international crude oil market is spreading continuously, and the inventories of the United States and China are declining. In addition, OPEC + is still strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, and the effect of national oil production control is ideal, so it is necessary to increase the supply and lower the crude oil market price. At the same time, the cold wave in the United States limited the supply of shale oil and gas fields in the United States, and accidental factors helped to increase the price of crude oil.

Butanone short-term high finishing operation continued to rise or insufficient power

Recently, the rise of butanone market is mostly supported by the low inventory in the market. The prices of new orders received by factories have risen. The performance of demand side is in general. The market activity is relatively slow, and the downstream factories receive less orders. The operators have different attitudes towards the future trend. According to the analysts of butanone business community, in the short term, the butanone market has insufficient power to continue to rise In addition, we should pay more attention to the change of downstream raw material demand.

From February 18 to 23, 2021, the market price of antimony ingot in East China rose, at 50500 yuan / ton on February 18 and 54750 yuan / ton on February 23, up 4250 yuan / ton, or 8.42%

The antimony commodity index on February 22 was 75.87, up 2.78 points from yesterday, down 25.85% from 102.32 points (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 61.49% from 46.98 points, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

This round of rally is actually a continuation of the rally before the festival. Affected by foreign public health events in the middle of 20 years, the supply of antimony ore end has been in a tight state. In the state of continuous tight supply in China, some antimony ingot manufacturers suspended export sales. This month, as the external price continued to rise, the market sentiment was further driven. In mid January, due to the transportation restrictions caused by domestic public health incidents, downstream manufacturers increased the purchase volume of antimony ingots and antimony oxide in order to ensure production demand, further aggravating the reluctance of domestic manufacturers to sell when the market circulation source was relatively small. Most domestic antimony ingot manufacturers have plans to reduce production to varying degrees. Under multiple favorable conditions, the price will rise sharply in the short term. After entering February, as the market gradually entered the holiday mode, the market quotation decreased, and some manufacturers entered the holiday state, and the opening price of the market after the festival was dominated all the way.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in week 07 (2.15-2.19) of 2021, there were 17 kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month, among which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.2% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were tin (8.70%), zinc (7.62%) and cobalt (6.18%). There were two kinds of commodities that declined month on month, with gold (- 3.34%) and silver (- 2.13%) as the top two products. This week, the average rise or fall was 2.46%, and most of the non-ferrous metal market rose.

In the past 21 years, the whole non-ferrous metal market has been in a rising trend, in which copper, nickel, tin, aluminum, antimony, cobalt and other commodities have been in a rising channel since the second half of 20 years. In addition to their respective supply and demand factors, a large number of funds into the market is also one of the driving forces. At present, the futures and spot markets influence and drive each other. With the recovery of foreign markets and the positive demand support of the electronics industry, it is expected that the market will be in an upward trend in the whole first quarter.

The Business Association believes that under the current continuous tight supply at the ore end and cost pressure, the price of antimony products in the future is expected to be stable and strong, and there is still room for increase. With the recovery of a domestic antimony mine, the shortage of follow-up supply will be alleviated.

After the festival (2.18-2.22), the price of NBR went up. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of February 22, the price of NBR was 18866.67 yuan / ton, which was 3.28% higher than the price of 18266.67 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival.

The ex factory price of NBR in China increased. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of February 22, the price of NBR of Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was higher than that before the festival: at present, the price of n41e was 16400 yuan / ton; 3305e was 17500 yuan / ton; 3308e was 17800 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of NBR of Ningbo shunze was stable, and the ex factory price of NBR of 3355 was 16500 yuan / ton. At present, the ex factory price of NBR is slightly higher than that in the earlier stage. Although the overall downstream construction has not been strongly restored after the festival, the higher crude oil price has stimulated the whole domestic chemical market, and the NBR offer has followed suit. At present, the mainstream offer of NBR n41e Market is around 16200-17000 yuan / ton, and the offer of South Korea lg6250 market is around 18000 yuan / ton.

The price of raw materials rose sharply, and the cost was supported by nitrile. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of February 22, the butadiene price was 6747 yuan / ton, up 7.42% from 6281 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival.

Finally, in the near future, the operating rate of downstream rubber products of NBR has not recovered to the level before the festival, market inquiries have increased, the actual transaction is still light, and the support for NBR is insufficient.

Future forecast: NBR analysts believe that raw material prices are rising, downstream demand needs to be restored, and NBR offer may continue to rise tentatively in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of February 20, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 11733 yuan / ton. Compared with February 10 (reference average price of n-butanol was 9300 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 2433 yuan / ton, or 26%. Compared with February 1 (reference average price of n-butanol was 8533 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 3200 yuan / ton, or 37.5%.

The year of the ox welcomes the “bull market” and butanol rises sharply after the festival

Before the Spring Festival, the overall trend of domestic n-butanol market was stable and moving upward. Before the festival, the shipment was smooth, and the factory spot supply was tight. Individual factories began to receive orders in limited quantity, and received orders after many years. Before the festival, the inventory level of downstream butyl ester raw materials was low.

After the Spring Festival, on the first day of the construction, the domestic n-butanol market rose sharply for the first time in the year of the ox. on the 18th, it rose by 800-1300 yuan / ton per day. The n-butanol spot continued to be tense, the attitude of the industry was positive, the market atmosphere was optimistic, the reluctant selling sentiment of the commodity holders gradually increased, and the downstream users actively purchased, which promoted the market focus to rise. Subsequently, on the 19th and 20th, the ex factory price of n-butanol continued to rise sharply, and the spot circulation was not much, and the single day increase was 500-1000 yuan / ton. As of the afternoon of the 20th, the overall supply of n-butanol market remained tight, and the market quotation continued to be high and firm. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 11200-12500 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 11733 yuan / ton, which was similar to that in Shandong Compared with the reference average price of 9300 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival, the price of n-butanol increased by 2433 yuan / ton, with a total increase of 26% after the festival.

On the upstream side, after the festival, the propylene market price in Shandong rose significantly on the 18th, with a price increase of about 200 yuan / ton. On the 19th, the propylene market price in Shandong continued to rise sharply, with a price increase of 200 yuan / ton again. At present, Shandong propylene market turnover between 7500 ~ 7650 yuan / ton, the mainstream price rose to about 7500 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock is less, the shipment situation is more popular. Due to extreme weather in the United States, propylene production decreased sharply and prices soared; due to the earthquake in Japan, propylene production capacity also decreased.

Spot supply is tight, n-butanol maintains high and firm operation in the short term

At present, the tight spot supply situation of domestic n-butanol has not been eased, and the demand for butyl acrylate in the downstream is relatively high. Therefore, the n-butanol data analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, the market of n-butanol in China will continue to be high and firm, and the price may continue to be slightly higher.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of acrylic acid product source: Commodity analysis system of Business Association)

2、 Market analysis

The market of acrylic acid rose on February 19. According to the block list data of business news agency, as of February 19, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 9466.67 yuan / ton, up 1.79% compared with the previous trading day and 0.35% compared with January 19. In terms of raw materials, propylene prices rose, cost support rose, and in terms of supply, the overall starting load of mainstream plants was not high, the spot supply was tight, market participants returned to the market one after another, the overall support was strengthened, and the focus of market negotiation was higher.

According to the data monitoring of the business society, the latest price quotation of some acrylic acid enterprises is: Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. acrylic acid, property specification (standard: common acid; grade: superior product) is 8600 yuan / ton, Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd. acrylic acid, property specification (standard: common acid; grade: superior product) is 8600 yuan / ton, and the spot price of the merchants depends on the market, The actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

Upstream propylene, February 18, Shandong propylene market prices rose significantly. According to the price chart of the business club, the price of propylene declined all the way at the end of January, rose slightly at the end of the month, and then began to stabilize. On the 8th, the price of enterprises generally dropped by 50 yuan / ton, and then entered the Spring Festival holiday. Most of them remained stable in the first half of the year, while the price rose steadily in the second half of the year (from February 15). Today is the first day of official work, the price rose by about 200 yuan / ton, and the current market transaction is 7300 ~ 7550 yuan/ The mainstream price rose to about 7300 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acrylic acid analysts of business news agency, at present, the price of raw material propylene is rising, the cost support is obvious, and the market spot supply is limited, so the overall support of the market is acceptable. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may rise steadily in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the domestic cobalt price rose sharply after the festival, and the cobalt market rebounded and warmed up. As of February 18, the price of cobalt was 348000.00 yuan / ton, up 4.87% from 331833.34 yuan / ton on February 9. During the Spring Festival, the sharp rise of international cobalt price stimulated the rise of domestic cobalt market.

MB cobalt price during the Spring Festival

Time ﹣ category ﹣ specification ﹣ lowest price ﹣ rise and fall ﹣ highest price ﹣ rise and fall ﹣ unit

February 9 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22 ﹣ 0.25 ﹣ 22.35 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

February 9 – alloy grade cobalt 22 0.25 22.3 0 USD / lb

February 10 – standard cobalt 22.0 22.35.0 USD / lb

February 10 – alloy grade cobalt $22.0 $22.3 $0 / lb

February 11 – standard cobalt 22.25 0.25 22.75 0.4 USD / lb

February 11 – alloy grade cobalt 22.25 0.25 22.75 0.45 USD / lb

February 12 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.5 ﹣ 0.25 ﹣ 22.75 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

February 12 – alloy grade cobalt 22.5 0.25 22.75 0 USD / lb

February 15 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.75 ﹣ 0.25 ﹣ 23.15 ﹣ 0.4 ﹣ USD / lb

February 15 – alloy grade cobalt 22.75 0.25 23.15 0.4 USD / pound

February 16 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.25 ﹣ 23.15 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

February 16 – alloy grade cobalt 22.25-23.15-0 USD / lb

February 17 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.9 ﹣ 0.15 ﹣ 23.35 ﹣ 0.2 ﹣ USD / lb

February 17 – alloy grade cobalt 23 0.25 23.7 0.55 USD / lb

From the MB cobalt price list during the Spring Festival, it can be seen that during the Spring Festival, the international cobalt price soared, the international cobalt market rose, the domestic cobalt market was more favorable, the domestic cobalt price rose, and the domestic cobalt market rose.

LME cobalt Market during the Spring Festival

It can be seen from the trend chart of LME market cobalt price that during the Spring Festival, the rising power of international cobalt market is increased, while the domestic cobalt market is favorable, and the rising power of cobalt price is increased.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that during the Spring Festival, international cobalt prices soared. In the case of no major change in global supply and demand fundamentals, the soaring international cobalt price stimulated the domestic cobalt market to rise. After the festival, the domestic cobalt price rose by 15000 yuan / ton in a single day. In the future, the sales of new energy vehicles rose, the sales of 5g mobile phones rebounded, and the demand of cobalt market rose steadily. Affected by the epidemic, the supply and demand of cobalt market were limited, and the supply growth of cobalt market was difficult. It was expected that the market of short supply in the future would intensify, and the price of cobalt in the future would fluctuate and rise.

The international crude oil market continues to be favorable, the international oil price rises sharply, and the “seven consecutive rises” of domestic refined oil prices are expected to increase. However, the domestic Spring Festival holiday demand is not expected to be good, and the domestic refined oil price rise is lower than that of crude oil. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the price of gasoline on February 5 was 6056 yuan / ton, up 4.44% from the beginning of the week; the price of diesel on February 5 was 4920 yuan / ton, up 2.71% from the beginning of the week.

On the one hand, the extremely cold weather caused by the blizzard attack in the southeast of the United States has led to a rapid rise in fuel heating demand. Moreover, recently, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) have continued to effectively promote production reduction, which has brought a good supply side environment to oil prices. Moreover, the sharp decline in US commercial crude oil inventories in the past two weeks has become a direct driver to stimulate the rise of oil prices. International crude oil prices rose sharply this week, with WTI crude oil up 8.91% and Brent crude oil up 7.81%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the weather is getting warmer, local New Year celebrations are advocated, and gasoline terminal demand is lower than that of the same period. Recently, international crude oil prices have risen sharply, which has promoted the enthusiasm of downstream customers to prepare goods and pushed up gasoline prices. In terms of diesel, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the demand for engineering diesel has dropped to a low level. Driven by crude oil, some trading enterprises have hoard goods, but the overall diesel market demand is poor, which has limited support for diesel prices.

As of February 5, the average start-up load of daily pressure relief unit is about 72%, and the start-up load of refineries has declined slightly by 1%. The supply of domestic refined oil market will continue to be sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, product oil analyst of business club, believes that after the international crude oil price rises sharply, it is possible to maintain a high level, and it is less likely to continue to explore the high level. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the demand for diesel oil market drops to a low level. It is expected that the price of product oil will remain stable, and the state of strong gasoline and weak diesel will appear.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of steam coal fell this week. On February 7, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at 711.25 yuan / ton, and on February 1, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at about 787.5 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 9.68% and a year-on-year increase of 24.73%. On February 7, the steam coal commodity index was 85.69, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.45% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19), and up 91.70% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The quoted price of steam coal continued to fall, because the daily consumption of terminal power plants continued to fall, the demand for downstream procurement was light, multi-dimensional long-term cooperative transportation was the main, and the market trade activity decreased. In terms of origin, due to the approaching of the Spring Festival and the holiday of coal mines, there are not many coal mines with price adjustment, and there is a phenomenon of accumulation.

Downstream power plants: due to the obvious rise of national temperature, there will be few cold air attacks in the next few days, and the demand for civil heating power will weaken. The daily consumption of the power plant has fallen back to the normal level in previous years, and the number of days available for coal storage has increased, so it is difficult for the short-term power plant to increase. It is understood that the number of days available for inventory of power plants in coastal areas has risen to around 20 days. During the Spring Festival, most factories have a holiday, so the demand for electricity has dropped significantly, and the demand for industrial electricity has no obvious support.

Macro: according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on February 4, the national coal prices rose and fell in late January. The specific price changes of all kinds of coal are as follows: anthracite (washing block, volatile matter ≤ 8%) price is 930 yuan / ton, which is 15 yuan / ton higher than that in the previous period, with an increase of 1.6%, and a decrease of 0.1 percentage point. The price of ordinary blended coal (Shanxi pulverized coal and lump coal blended coal, calorific value 4500 kcal) was 701.8 yuan / ton, down 62 yuan / ton or 8.1% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dahua (better quality blended coal with calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 784.4 yuan / ton, down 55.4 yuan / ton or 6.6% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (high quality blended coal, calorific value 5500 kcal) was 880.4 yuan / ton, down 3.4 yuan / ton or 0.4% compared with the previous period. The price of Datong blended coal (Datong blended coal, calorific value 5800 kcal) was 903.9 yuan / ton, down 4.9 yuan / ton or 0.5% compared with the previous period.

Business analysts believe: the Spring Festival is approaching, the weather is obviously warmer, there will be little cold air in the future. The inventory of power plants continued to increase, and the demand for electricity decreased near the Spring Festival. In addition, it will take some time to return to work after the Spring Festival, and the demand for steam coal may turn weak. On the whole, the price of steam coal during the spring festival may remain weak, and the demand of downstream market will be taken into consideration.