According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market fell first and then rose in October, with an overall decline. From October 7th to 30th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price dropped from 16383 yuan/ton to 15683 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 4.27% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 1.84%.

At the beginning of the month, the overall follow-up ability of the aggregated MDI market was relatively average, and the market trend weakened and organized. The monthly closing price had a slightly average impact on the overall market driving force, and the market trading atmosphere was weak.

In the middle of the month, the main production enterprises completed the execution of the MDI plan for the month’s distribution channel aggregation, resulting in low inventory and tight supply, resulting in delayed shipments. Next month, the supplier maintenance will be more concentrated, and the supply inventory is expected to shrink, leading to a slight rebound in market prices.

In the latter half of the month, some production enterprises guided weekly price hikes, boosting market confidence among traders, and the market slowly rose. Continuing the mid month market rally, prices once again pushed upward.

On the supply side, after the holiday, some devices may have low negative operation due to adjusting the devices to solve some minor problems. The supply is expected to decrease slightly compared to the holiday period, and the overall supply rhythm will maintain a state of first increasing and then decreasing next month. On November 16th, the 600000 ton/year unit of Shanghai MDI factory began maintenance, with distillation shutdown for about two weeks and synthesis maintenance until mid December. The 400000 ton/year device at Chongqing MDI factory is scheduled for maintenance in early December. In addition, there are rumors in the market that the Ningbo factory has maintenance plans. The supply side is shrinking, but there is still room for improvement. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: In October, the domestic pure benzene market was mainly organized in a narrow range. As of October 30th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for the business society was 7892.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: In October, the domestic aniline market experienced a significant decline. As of October 30th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society was 11525.00 yuan/ton. The impact of short-term aggregated MDI cost side bearish factors.

On the demand side, the demand side has started relatively slowly. With the arrival of winter in the north, the demand in the pipeline, spraying, and sheet metal industries has decreased compared to the previous period. The boosting power of the cold industry has not yet affected spot trading, and there has been an increase in attention within the market, but there is still a willingness to ship. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is influenced by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, after the price increase, traders’ willingness to ship will increase, and the market atmosphere will be good. Business Society MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly slow to follow up.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of October 27, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 8166 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1 (reference price of propylene glycol 8466), the price was reduced by 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.54%.

In October, the overall domestic propylene glycol market showed a fluctuating and declining trend. In early October, after the end of the National Day holiday, the atmosphere of propylene glycol trading on the market was cold, with weak downstream demand and limited new orders on the market. Insufficient downstream demand also affected the pace of propylene glycol shipments. On the market, shipments were slow, supply was under pressure, and supply and demand contradictions were revealed. Effective support on the market was insufficient, and the propylene glycol market continued to move towards low levels. On October 15th, the domestic propylene glycol market price was around 8100 yuan/ton, with a decline of 4.33% in the first ten days.

In late October, after the propylene glycol market fell to a low level, some factories did not have a strong willingness to continue reducing prices. The market began to stabilize and seek price support activation. With the phased replenishment of some downstream products, the demand for propylene glycol on the market improved, and the propylene glycol market also saw a slight turnaround. Some propylene glycol factories and suppliers raised the price of propylene glycol narrowly, with an increase of about 100 yuan/ton. However, after downstream demand calmed down, propylene glycol continued to rise weakly, and the wait-and-see sentiment on the market became stronger. The propylene glycol market once again experienced a slight decline and then consolidated. As of October 27th, the domestic market price of propylene glycol is around 7900-8200 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the Future Market of Propylene Glycol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of propylene glycol on the market is quiet, with average downstream demand and limited new order transactions. There is still some wait-and-see and worry sentiment on the market. The propylene glycol data analyst from the business company believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has been stable recently. This week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1216.67 yuan/ton, and the current price has decreased by 12.05% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has been relatively stable. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months, and the market has continued to remain stable this week. As of October 26th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1120-1330 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol showed a slight upward trend, with good cost support. However, downstream plate factories have not started well, demand is weak, procurement is weak, and the formaldehyde market is fluctuating and consolidating.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has slightly increased. Currently, there is a possibility of a large downstream MTO device being put into operation, and the demand is good. In addition, macroeconomic benefits have also played a certain driving role. At the same time, port inventory has been significantly reduced, and the methanol market is gradually improving.

Recently, the methanol market has slightly increased, with good cost support. Downstream panel factories have maintained their demand for procurement, while formaldehyde manufacturers have shipped normally. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly rise in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 1126 yuan/ton on October 16th, and 1120 yuan/ton on October 23rd. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 0.59%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has slightly declined this week. Although the urea market has risen, the current domestic and international demand is poor, and the bidding price of ammonium sulfate has been lowered. The market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see, while dealers have poor enthusiasm for purchasing goods. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have reduced operating rates and reduced demand for ammonium sulfate procurement. As of October 23rd, the mainstream market quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 1050 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 1080-1130 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society’s ammonium sulfate market believe that the recent downward trend in ammonium sulfate prices has resulted in low purchasing enthusiasm from downstream and distributors. At present, market demand is weak, and it is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will mainly decline in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has been operating in a weak state, with spot prices often decreasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 23, the mixed price of domestic POM was 14375 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.49% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong Province has been experiencing strong fluctuations recently, with the price of raw material methanol showing a slight downward trend and poor cost support. Downstream demand procurement is maintained, while transactions in the formaldehyde market are flat, with mixed market fluctuations and market consolidation as the main trend.

On the supply side:

In the early stage, multiple domestic POM enterprises resumed work or increased their load, but the overall operating rate decreased last week, with an average load drop of about 3% to 74%. In terms of source of goods, most enterprises’ warehouses undertake low levels in the early stage, and their inventory positions are still acceptable. However, due to the impact of early profit market competition, it has dragged down the profit space of merchants and aggregation factories. The supply side has loosened its support for POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

At present, the operating level of downstream POM enterprises in China is not high, and some enterprises need to digest their pre stocking inventory. On market trading is weak, making it difficult to release POM consumption. At the same time, many business owners have bearish sentiment, and following up on operations is even more cautious. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

The recent trend of the POM market has been fluctuating and declining, and last week’s market weakness continued. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has slightly decreased, and the overall supply of goods on site is abundant, while the support of suppliers for spot goods has weakened. On the demand side, terminal enterprises are operating at a low level, and some raw material inventory has not yet been digested. Be cautious in purchasing operations and resist high priced sources. There is a lack of trading on the market, and competition among traders is intensifying. Overall, it is difficult to find both supply and demand side benefits in the current POM market, and the industry’s supply storage is expected to be broad. Therefore, it is expected that the POM market may continue to operate in a weak trend in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market has been weak recently, with various wire drawing brands increasing. As of October 20th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7728.57 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+-3.13% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials in September, the domestic propylene market maintained stable operation after being supported by crude oil. However, in the short term, the insufficient rise in crude oil may lead to weak future market conditions, and the PDH side will weaken simultaneously. In terms of methanol, there has been significant stability and small fluctuations, with mixed fluctuations in the upstream raw materials of PP, and overall support is still in place.

The trend of raw materials in various directions varies, and the support for PP on the cost side is still acceptable. In terms of industry load, the average industry load has recently exceeded 81%, slightly lower than before. The overall supply of goods is stable, but some enterprises have experienced unplanned maintenance, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply pressure. In terms of demand, the downstream production of plastic weaving remains at over 45%, while the production rate of film and injection molding enterprises remains around 60%, and the overall position remains stable. Terminal enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, with average trading activity, and the overall market for wire drawing materials is weak.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 20th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP also rose first and then fell. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7687.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -4.21% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 5.48% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, have seen a narrow increase in load, and the operating rate has risen to over 37%. The demand for fiber materials in the market is orderly, with stable prices for non-woven fabrics being the main focus, and the digestion speed of end products is normal. It is expected that in the short term, the decline in fiber materials may be narrowed due to cost drag.

In terms of melt blown materials, the recent market for melt blown PP has remained stable with little movement. As of October 20th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society is about 8375 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+0.30%, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.94%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China has returned to normal, and the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials is generally driven. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. The main benefits of melt blown materials are concentrated on the cost side, and it is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a sideways consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the recent decline in the polypropylene market has narrowed. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is acceptable, and the support of the cost side to the market is average. The construction of terminal enterprises continues to maintain the previous level, and the purchasing operation is biased towards weak and rigid demand, accelerating the trend of profit and loss. It is expected that in the short term, the PP market may experience cost support and its decline will narrow.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 19, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 7170 yuan/ton, which is 0.70% higher than the reference average price of 7120 yuan/ton on October 13.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 19, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 7016 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 7016 yuan/ton on October 13. The domestic wet process phosphoric acid price remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of hot process phosphoric acid increased, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid remained stable. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has risen, and cost support has strengthened. The operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, and there is currently no change in market supply. There is no significant increase in downstream demand, and market trading is weak. Under the drive of cost, some enterprises have raised the price of phosphoric acid. As of October 19th, the factory quotation for 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7200 yuan/ton, the factory quotation for 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6800-7150 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 7000 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6450-7800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore. This week, the overall high level consolidation of the phosphorus ore market has been operating, and there has been little change in the supply and demand side of the site. The overall supply of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore in some regions is still tight, while downstream demand remains stable, with most of the orders already in demand and pre orders. Currently, the overall price of phosphorus ore in the site has not changed much. As of October 19th, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 950-1050 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus increased. The overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is relatively good, with manufacturers mainly issuing preliminary orders and market prices slightly increasing. There are many downstream inquiries, making it difficult to purchase at a lower price, with manufacturers mainly pushing prices. Overall, procurement is relatively cautious, with a focus on taking what is needed and prioritizing what is needed. As of October 19th, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 26200-26500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society believe that the price of phosphoric acid has slightly increased recently. The cost boost has driven up the price of thermal phosphoric acid. However, downstream demand is weak, and some dealers have not made any adjustments for shipment, resulting in limited growth in phosphoric acid. With the improvement of the yellow phosphorus market, it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will continue to consolidate and rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 18th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises is 3375.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to last Friday (October 13th).

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating steadily. Recently, the raw material sulfuric acid market has been operating weakly and steadily, with a narrow range of fluctuations in raw material methanol. The cost support is limited, and downstream procurement is just needed. The market trading atmosphere is still good, and the holders follow the market to ship. The enterprise quotation range is between 3200-3500 yuan/ton, and the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market is mainly stable.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost impact is not significant, and the market trading is orderly. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

The rebound in crude oil, low PTA processing fees, and expected supply contraction have boosted the PTA market. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic PTA market rebounded slightly on October 16th, with an average market price of 5871 yuan/ton in the East China region, an increase of 0.28% compared to the previous trading day.

The ongoing escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has led to increased concerns about potential supply risks and a significant increase in international oil prices. On October 13th, international crude oil futures rose significantly. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $87.69 per barrel, up $4.78 or 5.8%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 90.89 yuan/barrel, an increase of 4.89 US dollars or 5.7%.

PTA factory has maintenance and load reduction phenomena. The current PTA industry is operating around 75%.

Entering mid October, the downstream polyester market demand gradually weakened. Recently, inventory has accumulated and production and sales have been average, resulting in poor demand for PTA in the short term. There is no expectation of significant increase in terminal orders, inventory digestion is insufficient, and the market atmosphere is cautious and wait-and-see. The current weaving start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 65%, which will further decline due to this impact.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the high volatility of crude oil still provides support for PTA costs. PTA factory has a strong willingness to shut down for maintenance, and unplanned shutdowns will not be ruled out in the future. However, the downstream market has shown weak performance and limited support for PTA demand. It is expected that PTA prices will mainly undergo narrow fluctuations and adjustments in the near future.

The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 16th, the price of DOTP was 11540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.73% compared to the price of 12241 yuan/ton on October 7th. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated, with a significant drop in PTA prices. In addition, downstream customer restocking has ended, and the demand for plasticizer DOTP costs has decreased. This week, the price of DOTP fluctuated and decreased.

PTA prices have dropped significantly this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PTA price on October 16th was 5871 yuan/ton, a significant drop from the price of 6213.64 yuan/ton on October 7th, with a decrease of 5.51%. Since October, crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, PTA costs have decreased, and the market trading atmosphere is average. PTA demand is poor, and PTA prices have dropped significantly this week; As crude oil prices rebound and rise, PTA costs support an increase, and PTA prices stop falling and rebound.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on October 16th was 12500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13% compared to the fluctuating price of 12360 yuan/ton on October 7th. Upstream propylene prices have fallen, while the cost of isooctanol has decreased. This week, the downstream replenishment of isooctanol has ended, and the demand for isooctanol is poor. This week, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and consolidated.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that PTA prices have significantly decreased this week, with isooctanol prices fluctuating and consolidating. Replenishment has ended, and downstream customers of isooctanol and PTA have poor purchasing enthusiasm. PTA prices have plummeted, and isooctanol prices have fluctuated and consolidated. Overall, the raw material cost of plasticizer DOTP has fluctuated and decreased, coupled with the end of downstream customer restocking of plasticizers, resulting in poor demand for plasticizers. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will plummet in the future.