The phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by the ortho phthalic method was 7225 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.78% compared to the price of 7587.50 yuan/ton on September 1st. The price of ortho benzene has dropped significantly, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the phthalic anhydride market has declined. At the end of September, the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7000-7200 yuan/ton, and the domestic price for nano phthalic anhydride was 6900-7100 yuan/ton.

Supply side: tight supply of goods

In the first and middle of September, domestic phthalic anhydride plants were operating at low load, with many shutdowns of the naphthalene phthalic anhydride equipment and low load operation of the neighboring phthalic anhydride equipment. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers are experiencing tight supply and queuing for shipments, resulting in a tight supply of phthalic anhydride. The slow recovery of phthalic anhydride production in the latter half of the year has led to significant downward pressure and weakened upward pressure.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene has decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of ortho benzene was 7100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.13% from the price of ortho benzene on September 1st, which was 7900 yuan/ton. The price of ortho benzene has fallen, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has decreased, and there is significant downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride.

Demand side: DOP market trend “W” – shaped rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8851.25 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.26% compared to the DOP price of 8963.75 yuan/ton on September 23rd; Compared to the DOP price of 8463.75 yuan/ton on September 9th, it has increased by 4.58%; Compared to September 1st, the DOP price of 8726.25 yuan/ton fluctuated and rose by 1.43%. In September, the DOP price first rose and then fell, with a “W” – shaped oscillating rise in DOP prices. The expected increase in operating rate of plasticizer enterprises leads to an increase in demand for plasticizers; In addition, due to stocking up before the National Day holiday, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose, but the gold nine color was insufficient, and the demand for plasticizers did not recover enough. The price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, and the price of plasticizers rose in a “W” shape.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has fallen, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased; In terms of supply, phthalic anhydride manufacturers are operating at low loads, resulting in a tight supply of phthalic anhydride; In terms of demand, DOP manufacturers have been slow to increase production, while downstream DOP prices have fluctuated and risen. Demand for phthalic anhydride has rebounded, and it is expected that the neighboring phthalic anhydride market will experience a slight fluctuation and decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 23rd to 27th, the domestic ethanol price remained at 5802 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 18.42%. The price of raw corn continues to decline, with a slight loosening in costs. As the National Day approaches, holders are actively shipping, but demand has not substantially improved, resulting in a clear situation of oversupply in the market. The domestic ethanol market continues to be weak.

In terms of cost, the increase in corn production in the new season in the production area has led to a seasonal decline in corn. New grains are being launched one after another, but downstream demand is difficult to increase, leading to a strong bearish sentiment in the market and a synchronous decline in corn prices. The cost of ethanol lacks favorable support.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; The main large factories are not operating at a high rate. There have been no significant changes to the equipment in other factories. The ethanol supply is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption is generally supported; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Ethyl acetate has heard that the Jinmao Source plant is planning to restart recently, and the operating rate has rebounded. Short term ethanol demand is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

In the future, with light demand and subsequent decline in corn prices, ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic ethanol market will remain weak in the short term.

Product Name: Styrene

Latest price: 9006 yuan/ton on September 26th.

Analysis: According to data from Business Society, the styrene market is weak today. The overall trading atmosphere is poor, with limited downstream demand in the market, cautious procurement, and insufficient market confidence. As a result, the domestic styrene market prices have been lowered. It is expected that the styrene spot market will operate weakly in the short term.

Market Overview

This week, the domestic melamine market experienced a weak downward trend, and the fundamentals showed weakness. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 24th, the reference price of melamine was 6762.50, a decrease of 0.18% compared to September 1st (6775.00). Mainly supported by low-priced orders in the early stage. Overall, the fundamentals are weak, and the trading atmosphere in the melamine market is average.

Supply side

This week, with the recovery of previous maintenance equipment and the gradual production of new capacity, the national urea market is expected to continue to increase in daily output and future market. Enterprise inventory is also accumulating, and the supply side continues to be loose, leading to increasing pressure.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 25th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s urea was 2145.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.29% compared to the beginning of this month (2173.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of demand

The melamine market has recently cooled down, and from the perspective of demand and raw materials, the market has weak positive news and insufficient demand follow-up. It is reported that some sheet metal factories have recently reduced their operating load, and considering that the supply of melamine will increase in the later maintenance and restoration of multiple factories, downstream manufacturers and traders have reduced their demand for melamine procurement.

Overall, the decrease in local production capacity utilization rate of melamine has provided support for the market, but there is insufficient demand and raw material benefits, and the overall market atmosphere is average. It is expected that the short-term market situation will be mainly stable and fluctuating, and in the long run, the market will lack guiding factors and may mainly follow the market trend.

Product Name: Styrene

Latest price: 9180 yuan/ton on September 24th.

Analysis: According to data from Business Society, the styrene market is weak today. The overall trading atmosphere is still not optimistic, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and downstream factories purchasing according to demand. At present, crude oil futures have fallen, affecting market confidence, and the domestic styrene market price has been lowered. It is expected that the styrene spot market will experience slight fluctuations within the range in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall domestic maleic anhydride market has slightly declined this week. As of September 22, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% from 6650 yuan/ton on September 16.

Supply side: Yantai Wanhua plans to resume production in the near future; This week, the prices of the main factories producing maleic anhydride have fallen, and the quotes from distributors have followed suit. New orders are mainly driven by urgent needs, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. As of September 22nd, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5700 yuan/ton.

Upstream: Recently, the international crude oil market has fluctuated and risen, and the price of n-butane has slightly increased. As of September 22, the price in Shandong is around 5250 yuan/ton.

Downstream: The recent weak consolidation of the unsaturated resin market is the main reason, and downstream production continues to be sluggish, with limited procurement of essential needs and limited support for unsaturated resins.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that the recent decline in the maleic anhydride market, coupled with the expected resumption of production by Yantai Wanhua, has led to a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market and cautious operations; The downstream unsaturated resin market is mainly consolidating weakly, with limited procurement of maleic anhydride; It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will experience a narrow consolidation in the near future.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the average price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market was 15750 yuan/ton on Monday and 15700 yuan/ton on Friday, with a price reduction of 0.32%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market has experienced a slight decline this week. The price of titanium concentrate on raw materials remains weak and stable, while the price of sulfuric acid has declined. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the domestic titanium dioxide market, with light terminal demand and cautious actual orders. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15000-16300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14200-14500 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the titanium concentrate market in the Panxi region is operating weakly and steadily. At present, the spot market is generally cold. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a weak market and weak market conditions, with few inquiries for titanium ore, maintaining demand. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1570-1620 yuan/ton, 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2210-2300 yuan/ton, and 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate is mainly stable, and the specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s titanium dioxide analyst believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market has slightly declined this week, with average trading on the market. The downstream market demand is poor, so we should mainly observe and wait. It is expected that the market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated one by one.

The market price of epichlorohydrin has slightly increased this week. At present, there is a shortage of spot goods in the market, and supply remains tight. After the price increase, low-priced spot goods are difficult to find, and there has been a decrease in trading orders in the market, with a focus on purchasing small orders for essential needs. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 8350 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.54% compared to the beginning of this month (7987.50 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: The market price of raw material propylene has decreased. Although the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the company reduces profits by selling at low prices, resulting in a decrease in actual trading volume. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6750.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.12% compared to the beginning of this month (6968.25 yuan/ton).

Equipment situation: According to the overall operating rate of the epoxy chloropropane industry within the week, it was 50-60%.

Downstream demand side: Follow up on small orders for downstream epoxy resin demand, with firm quotes from manufacturers and average actual transaction volume.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the impact of cost fluctuations is not significant, and downstream demand buying is the main trend. There is insufficient follow-up on new orders, and raw material procurement is cautious. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market price changes.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall trend of mixed xylene market has been declining recently (9.9-9.18). On September 9th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from 6230 yuan/ton on September 18th. The mixed xylene market continued to operate weakly in this cycle, with market prices experiencing a wide decline. As of September 18th, the mainstream price range for xylene in the East China region was 6200-6250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. The crude oil market continued to decline during the week, dragging down market sentiment. Sinopec’s listing prices and refinery prices in various regions have been continuously lowered, and the current market atmosphere is weak. On the demand side, we will continue to make essential purchases this week. However, there is insufficient demand for oil products, and the focus of negotiations is relatively low, which has dragged down market quotations.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, the crude oil market first fell and then rose. In September, the crude oil trend sharply declined, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East affected the crude oil market trend. The easing of the situation at the beginning of the month led to a significant decline in the crude oil market; Since September, there have been concerns about the future demand for crude oil market, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; Finally, due to the rise in US crude oil inventories and negative factors, the overall crude oil market prices have significantly decreased. As of September 17th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.19 per barrel, an increase of $1.10 or 1.6%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $73.01 per barrel, an increase of $0.86 or 1.2%.

Supply side: During this cycle, most of Sinopec’s xylene quotations have been lowered. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotations remain unchanged from the previous day. As of September 18th, East China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6300-6350 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6300-6400 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6150 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The phthalic anhydride and xylene markets are operating weakly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7362.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34% from the price of 7462.50 yuan/ton on September 6th. This week, the price of ortho xylene was quoted at 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 3.90% compared to last week. The cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the phthalic anhydride market has declined. This week, the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride is 7200-7400 yuan/ton, while the domestic price for nano phthalic anhydride is 7100-7200 yuan/ton.

On September 18th, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7800 yuan/ton for xylene, which remained unchanged from the price on September 9th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $834-836/ton as of September 17, a cumulative decrease of $31/ton from $865-867/ton on September 8.

Market forecast: The cost side crude oil market has been weak recently, and the overall market environment is bearish. The recovery of the crude oil market during the Mid Autumn Festival holiday will provide some boost to the market. Recently, the supply in the Shandong market has been relatively stable, with refineries showing a stronger willingness to raise prices. The inventory in the East China market has slightly declined, and the overall market supply is relatively stable. The demand side has recently shown weak performance, with demand being more rigid and the market mentality being more cautious. There will be a certain release of replenishment demand in the downstream near the holiday. It is expected that the overall market trend will be stable in the short term, with slight fluctuations. The focus will be on pre holiday stocking in the future.

This week (September 9-14), the market price of nylon filament fell weakly. On the raw material side, the weekly closing price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam has been lowered, and the market trend of nylon PA6 chips is weak, with weak support on the cost side. Downstream market demand is weak, and it is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, resulting in poor trading activity within the market. The industry’s operating rate remains stable, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and inventory pressure is not high. There is a lack of positive news to boost the market, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among industry players.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament fell weakly this week (September 9-14). As of September 14, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly decrease of 0.96%. Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 1.53%. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 19525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 1.01% from last week’s price.

Raw materials remain weak and decline

This week (September 9-14), the fundamentals of the nylon filament raw material caprolactam market were weak, with weak cost support. There was a certain increase in both supply and demand in the caprolactam market, but there was a lack of significant boost in terminal demand. As of September 14, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 12750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61% from last week

Supply and demand: This week (September 9-14), the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable. Most of the nylon filament market facilities are operating stably, and currently the daily production rate of the nylon filament market is around 8.4%. Good support from the demand side is difficult to find, the speed of on-site cargo flow is average, trading activity is average, and market confidence is insufficient.

Future forecast

Although entering the traditional peak season for textiles, downstream market demand will improve to some extent, but there is currently no obvious sign of improvement, and on-demand procurement is still the main focus; The cost side caprolactam market is mainly weak and stable, while the cost side support for nylon filament is limited. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will be weak and stable, with prices mainly fluctuating in a narrow range.