1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the focus of the domestic NMP market continued to shift downwards in January, indicating an overall weakness. At the beginning of January, the average price of electronic grade NMP was 12800 yuan/ton. On January 30th, the average price was 12566 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.83%.

2、 Analysis and Review

 
As of January 30th, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions of China are as follows:

Region/ January 30th

East China region/ 12200-13000 yuan/ton

Central China region/ 12500-13000 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 12500-12800 yuan/ton

In January, the domestic NMP market continued to decline. As of the 30th, the mainstream retail price for electronic grade NMP in China was 12300-12800 yuan/ton. The BDO prices on the raw material side have fluctuated and fallen, with insufficient support on the cost side. The demand side of NMP remains weak, approaching the Spring Festival, and downstream production enthusiasm is not high. We are preparing to take an early holiday. The NMP factory on the production side remains stable, with a weak mentality. The quotation follows the market trend, and the price bottoms out, reducing the room for downward adjustment.

The domestic BDO market fluctuated and declined in January. From January 1st to 30th, the average domestic BDO price dropped from 9535 yuan/ton to 9424 yuan/ton, with a 1.17% decrease in price during the cycle,

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to NMP analysts from Business Society, the downstream follow-up of NMP prices is slow, and the market’s positive signals are weak. Currently, NMP is close to the bottom, and there is limited room for further decline. It is expected that NMP prices will consolidate and operate at a low level in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7510.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%. The current price has dropped by 18.68% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell in January. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been declining for two consecutive months recently, and the market has continued to decline this month. The overall market situation of raw material potassium chloride has significantly declined, with poor cost support, poor downstream operating rates, and weak transactions in the potassium carbonate market, resulting in a sustained decline in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 7200-7300 yuan/ton recently (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in January was downward. The downstream market demand is sluggish, and the pressure on potassium chloride to sell has increased. This week, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has dropped significantly. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of potassium chloride has dropped from 3080 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2800 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 8.91%. The prices of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangge are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

At present, the domestic potassium chloride market has slightly improved, with downstream pre holiday stocking. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be wait-and-see.

Aluminum prices slightly declined in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on January 26, 2024 was 19136.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% compared to the aluminum price of 19563.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (January 1). This week, aluminum prices have started to stabilize and have risen by 1.54%.

In the long term, the current price is in the “M” type price state since the second half of 2023, and the price level has been in the upper middle level in the past year.

News related to raw material alumina this week

On the domestic side, affected by the orange warning of heavy pollution weather, some alumina enterprises in Binzhou and Zibo areas of Shandong Province have implemented emergency emission reduction measures. As of now, the production capacity has been reduced by about 2.4 million tons per year, and the impact period may reach the end of the month.

In terms of overseas ores, some mines in Guinea have temporarily solved the diesel supply problem by signing an import contract with a certain fuel supply company through customs, involving an annual production capacity of about 15 million tons. Guinea’s mines have actively addressed diesel supply issues through various channels and have achieved initial results. However, the shortage of domestic ores still exists in the short term.

Inventory low, month on month inventory reduction this week

Social inventory is at an absolute low level. This week, social inventory continues to be depleted. As of January 25th, the mainstream social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China was 412000 tons, with a month on month decrease. Based on year-on-year data, it is at a low level in the same period of nearly seven years.

Operating with strong fluctuations in the future market

This week, aluminum prices have stopped falling and stabilized. On the one hand, this is because aluminum prices have fallen below 19000 yuan/ton, stimulating downstream pre holiday stocking demand. On the other hand, the news about aluminum oxide is positive, and cost support has strengthened. At present, aluminum inventory is relatively low year-on-year, and the accumulation phenomenon is delayed, better than expected. In the future, we will focus on the dynamic changes in inventory. The short-term aluminum price fluctuates strongly.

Price trend in 2023:

The market situation of epichlorohydrin will decline in 2023. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of epoxy chloropropane for enterprises was 9100.00 yuan/ton on January 1, 2023, and 8125.00 yuan/ton on December 31, with a 10.71% decline in the market for the year.

In the first half of the year, the spot supply in the Jiangsu and Shandong markets was tight in January, and companies had a price boosting mentality. The market remained sluggish and stable before and after the Spring Festival, with small fluctuations in company quotations. In February, there was significant cost support, but downstream demand was weak, with only small purchases for basic needs. Factory shipments were under pressure, and cumulative inventory increased. The supply and demand side dragged down the market. The cost support for March still exists, with some epichlorohydrin units shutting down or operating at reduced loads. However, the demand support is weak, with downstream mainly consuming inventory raw materials. Market sentiment is under pressure, and the focus of epichlorohydrin negotiations is weak. In early April, some devices were in a state of shutdown, and the market spot supply was tight. Downstream inquiries increased, supporting the rise of the epichlorohydrin market. In the middle and late stages, as some devices gradually restarted, the market supply increased, and the demand side dominated the market trend, causing the epichlorohydrin market to fluctuate upwards. In May, the utilization rate of production capacity on the supply side remained low, but there was limited follow-up on the demand side. Downstream consumers consumed more inventory raw materials and mainly restocked on low demand. The market trading atmosphere was light, and the market was operating weakly. In June, the demand side dominated the market, mainly due to weak downstream epoxy resin operation, consumption of contract volume and inventory. The enthusiasm for entering the market inquiries was not high, and small orders for basic needs followed up. Market transactions continued to be under pressure, and holders offered to sell at a discounted price. With demand dragging down, the focus of negotiations in the epoxy chloropropane market continued to decline.

In the second half of the year, under the influence of supply and demand in July, the market first fell and then rose. At the beginning of the month, downstream consumption contracts and inventory were mainly affected, and enterprise shipments were under pressure. High end negotiation prices declined. In the latter half of the year, the overall utilization rate of industry capacity was low, and the market supply was tight, supporting the rise of the market. The cost and supply side support in August are still acceptable, with downstream demand mainly following up and the market slightly rising. In September, the industry’s capacity utilization rate in the first half of the month was below 50%, and some companies had no inventory pressure. Downstream inquiries into the market increased, driving steady price increases for companies. In October, downstream consumption of inventory raw materials was the main trend, and small orders were followed up on buying dips. Holders were under pressure to ship, and some companies were offering discounts to ship. In November, spot supply was tight, but the weak demand led to a weak market trend. In December, some factories in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and other regions shut down for maintenance, resulting in a tight supply of spot goods in the market. However, the main downstream epoxy resin transactions were limited, and the demand side support was weak. The market atmosphere was stagnant, and the market remained stable with little movement.

Market forecast for 2024:

Supply side: The production capacity of epichlorohydrin has maintained a growth trend in 2022 and 2023, with an additional production capacity of around 300000 tons in 2023. The production in 2023 has also slightly increased compared to 2022, and it is expected that the supply side of epichlorohydrin will continue to show an incremental expectation in 2024.

On the demand side:

The main downstream epoxy resins, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, saw a decline in market prices in 2023. The starting price was 15833.33 yuan/ton, and the ending price was 13233.33 yuan/ton, with an annual decline of 16.42%. In 2023, the production capacity utilization rate of the epoxy resin industry was low, and support for the epoxy chloropropane market was weak. It is expected that the production capacity of epoxy resins will continue to grow in 2024, More attention still needs to be paid to the impact of the production of epoxy resin on the market of epichlorohydrin.

Cost side: Upstream propylene: In 2023, the Chinese propylene market fluctuated and declined. Taking Shandong propylene as an example, the average price at the beginning of the year was 7244.60 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 6868.25 yuan/ton, with a 5.19% decline in the domestic market. Based on a comprehensive analysis of crude oil and supply and demand, it is expected that the center of gravity of propylene prices in 2024 may continue to decline compared to 2023, and the expected decline is relatively controllable.

Import and export: According to customs data, the total import volume of epichlorohydrin in China in 2023 was 1368058 kilograms, a year-on-year decrease of 25.73%. In 2023, the total export volume of epichlorohydrin in China was 57860383 kilograms, a year-on-year decrease of 19.66%.

Comprehensive prediction:

In summary, it is expected that the supply and demand of epichlorohydrin will double increase in 2024, and the demand side may still dominate the market. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will fluctuate narrowly in 2024, and more attention still needs to be paid to cost pressure.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for maleic anhydride has recently slightly declined. As of January 22, the average market price of n-butane oxidation method maleic anhydride remained at 7199.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37% from the price of 7300.00 yuan/ton on January 15.

In terms of supply: Recently, the prices of major factories have remained stable, with limited new orders signed, and downstream demand for restocking has been the main focus. As of January 22nd, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6400 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The overall market for hydrogenated benzene is on the rise, while the supply side is expected to increase due to the recent rise in hydrogenated benzene prices. Currently, enterprises are actively starting production, and some enterprises that have undergone preliminary maintenance have resumed production. The operating rate has slightly increased this week, and the supply of hydrogenated benzene is expected to increase. In terms of demand, some downstream enterprises undergo maintenance, but as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises have varying degrees of stocking plans, so the market expects overall good demand in the near future.

Recently, the international crude oil market has been volatile, with the upstream naphtha market mainly consolidating at a high level and the n-butane market remaining stable. As of January 22, the price in Shandong is around 5100 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect: Currently, the unsaturated resin market is about to shut down for a holiday, with weak downstream demand and average overall market trading.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that the current maleic anhydride factory quotation is mainly stable, and downstream unsaturated resin is about to stop production for vacation, with limited demand. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will consolidate in the near future.

1、 Price trend

The downstream market demand is sluggish, and the pressure on potassium chloride to sell has increased. This week, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has dropped significantly. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of potassium chloride has dropped from 2925 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2825 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 3.42% and a year-on-year decrease of 27.33%.

2、 Market analysis

According to data statistics, the final price of 60% potassium in Qinghai over the weekend is around 2700-2860 yuan/ton, with limited new transactions. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2500-2600 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2700-2800 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2500 yuan/ton, with a slight increase in spot prices. Mainstream distributors of potassium chloride have seen a decline in their quotes during the week.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has slightly declined this week, dropping from 7440 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7400 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.54%, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.68% over the weekend. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5275 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.94%. The weekend price fell by 10.78% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride continues to be sluggish, with manufacturers mainly purchasing on demand.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late January, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of salt lakes and Zangge potassium chloride are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of January 19th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7000 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to the same period last week. This week, the price remained stable, and the overall market supply and demand were balanced, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has remained stable, with mainstream prices around 7000 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, prices have remained stable, with mainstream manufacturers maintaining a range of quotes of around 7000 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and demand is weak and less than expected. Upstream support is lacking.

Chemical index: On January 18th, the chemical index was 864 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 38.29% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.48% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that in the short term, the cyclohexane market will mainly operate steadily.

The liquid epoxy resin market is showing signs of fatigue, with prices continuing to decline. On January 16th, the market quoted factory price of purified water hovered between 12700 and 13000 yuan, and the quoted price in Shandong region was as low as 12600 to 12900 yuan/ton of purified water. The raw material market continues to be sluggish, with the quoted price of bisphenol A at around 9150-9400 yuan/ton and epichlorohydrin at around 8050-8250 yuan/ton. However, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has not shown signs of improvement, leading to an increasingly stagnant trading atmosphere on the exchange. It is currently unclear when the sluggish state of the liquid epoxy resin market will usher in a turning point.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong at the beginning of the year was 1200.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1076.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.22%. The highest point was the average price of 1283.33 yuan/ton on March 1, and the lowest point was 1076.67 yuan/ton on June 15, a decrease of 16.10% compared to the highest point.

formaldehyde

In 2023, the formaldehyde market in Shandong fluctuated and fluctuated. From the above chart, it can be seen that formaldehyde has been on an upward trend for four months in 2023, with the highest monthly increase in August reaching 6.73%. The increase is mainly due to the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, the rise of raw material methanol market, and the significant increase in formaldehyde market. Formaldehyde has been on a downward trend for 7 months in 2023, with the largest decline occurring in May, reaching 5.34%. The main reason for the decline is the continuous decline of raw material methanol, and downstream board factories have poor demand due to the impact of rainwater and high temperature weather, resulting in oversupply and a significant decline in the formaldehyde market.

Upstream methanol situation: In 2023, the domestic methanol market showed an “M” – shaped trend, with two obvious “ups and downs” cycles throughout the year. The “high point” of prices in February and March is mainly due to the joint support of costs and demand. Some coal mines have cleared their inventory in the early stage, and terminal procurement is relatively active. There is a significant increase in transportation vehicles, coupled with the impact of sudden related accidents. In the short term, coal prices may rise. Downstream acetic acid: demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream chloride: chloride demand or decrease. The temporary storage of methanol demand is favorable. The methanol market has seen a dual positive rise. The lowest price is in mid June, and the support for methanol production costs has weakened. Traditional demand has entered the off-season, and demand is weak. At the same time, some methanol parking facilities have recovered. Overall, the supply in the mainland market is still relatively sufficient. From the above figure, it can be seen that methanol and formaldehyde have maintained the same curve throughout the year. The market trend of methanol has a guiding effect on formaldehyde.

In recent times, the circulation of methanol has been restricted, and the market has shown a fluctuating upward trend. Cost support is good, and the Spring Festival is approaching. Downstream plate factories are flushing out inventory, and the shipment situation of manufacturers has improved. Under the dual benefits, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the beginning of 2022.

Cobalt prices have fluctuated and weakened this week

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, as of January 15th, the cobalt price was 218800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82% from January 8th cobalt price of 220600 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 0.95% from January 1st cobalt price of 220900 yuan/ton. This week, cobalt prices continued to decline, and the weak trend in the cobalt market remained unchanged.

Weak demand side in cobalt market

New energy vehicles still maintain a prosperous situation, with a year-on-year increase in production and sales. However, the first quarter is in the traditional off-season, and the release of production capacity by battery material factories has slowed down. The demand for cobalt has further decreased. Before the Spring Festival, the stocking sentiment of battery manufacturers for raw materials is sluggish, and the demand for cobalt in the market is weak.

Adequate supply of cobalt in the market

As the Spring Festival approaches, under the expectation of poor demand, the shipping pressure on holders is gradually being released, and production enthusiasm is being suppressed. However, most manufacturers still maintain normal production, and the pattern of cobalt oversupply remains unchanged. Overall, there is sufficient spot circulation.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, as the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of cobalt in the domestic market has both weakened. However, the oversupply pattern in the cobalt market has not changed, and the weak demand trend is relatively large. Overall, the cobalt market remains strong in supply and weak in demand, and it is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and weaken in the future.