Aluminum prices slightly declined in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on January 26, 2024 was 19136.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% compared to the aluminum price of 19563.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (January 1). This week, aluminum prices have started to stabilize and have risen by 1.54%.

In the long term, the current price is in the “M” type price state since the second half of 2023, and the price level has been in the upper middle level in the past year.

News related to raw material alumina this week

On the domestic side, affected by the orange warning of heavy pollution weather, some alumina enterprises in Binzhou and Zibo areas of Shandong Province have implemented emergency emission reduction measures. As of now, the production capacity has been reduced by about 2.4 million tons per year, and the impact period may reach the end of the month.

In terms of overseas ores, some mines in Guinea have temporarily solved the diesel supply problem by signing an import contract with a certain fuel supply company through customs, involving an annual production capacity of about 15 million tons. Guinea’s mines have actively addressed diesel supply issues through various channels and have achieved initial results. However, the shortage of domestic ores still exists in the short term.

Inventory low, month on month inventory reduction this week

Social inventory is at an absolute low level. This week, social inventory continues to be depleted. As of January 25th, the mainstream social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China was 412000 tons, with a month on month decrease. Based on year-on-year data, it is at a low level in the same period of nearly seven years.

Operating with strong fluctuations in the future market

This week, aluminum prices have stopped falling and stabilized. On the one hand, this is because aluminum prices have fallen below 19000 yuan/ton, stimulating downstream pre holiday stocking demand. On the other hand, the news about aluminum oxide is positive, and cost support has strengthened. At present, aluminum inventory is relatively low year-on-year, and the accumulation phenomenon is delayed, better than expected. In the future, we will focus on the dynamic changes in inventory. The short-term aluminum price fluctuates strongly.