Price list of aluminum ingot

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market on October 30 was 14843.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.00% compared with the average market price of 14696.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1), 1.99% higher than the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), 14553.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 32.10% compared with the valley value of the average market price in the year (March 24).

In October, the price of aluminum ingot was relatively strong, and the overall operation was horizontal.

In November, the price of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum may maintain the horizontal trend

Multiple arguments:

1. Low level operation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory

According to statistical data, as of October 23, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) totaled 695000 tons, compared with 24000 tons that went to the warehouse on October 16; aluminum rod inventory decreased by 10600 tons to 41300 tons.

At present, the start-up of downstream leading enterprises has remained relatively stable, and export orders have been restored; in terms of domestic trade, orders for industrial profiles, plates and strips, and aluminum alloy ingots have remained stable, mainly from transportation fields such as automobile, photovoltaic and rail transit, while orders for architectural profiles are weak.

The average daily retail sales of 42000 vehicles in October 1-3 weeks increased by 16% year-on-year and 3% month on month compared with the same period in September.

Fitch solutions said in its latest report that China’s accelerated implementation of the “new infrastructure” program would boost production of high-end metals rather than primary metals. Fitch reports that new infrastructure projects, including 5g networks, data centers and artificial intelligence systems, as well as transport and energy infrastructure, such as ultra high voltage (UHV) technology, charging stations and high-speed rail, require a large amount of metals, especially lighter and more advanced metals, in construction. Fitch estimates that nearly 1 million tons of high-end aluminum and 32 million tons of special steel will be needed for China’s new infrastructure projects in 2020 alone, accounting for 3% of the domestic demand for these two metals. This number will continue to rise in 2021 and 2022 as more projects are put into operation. UHV power cables will be the main driver of these metals demand.

On the trend, the risk of large accumulation of aluminum ingots is not big.

Short argument:

1. The continuous tightening of the real estate policy has a great impact on the consumption of aluminum profiles, and the subsequent accumulation risk is increased;

2. The production of raw material alumina is expected to increase greatly, and the cost factor suppresses the rise of aluminum price.

Recently, the hydro bauxite pipeline has resumed operation, which is used to transport bauxite from paragominas mine to alunorte alumina plant. Production at paragominas bauxite mine has resumed and alumina production is in the recovery stage.

At home, Guangxi Huasheng New Material Co., Ltd. has built a production capacity of 1 million tons, and its current operating capacity is 1 million tons / year, and the other 1 million tons is expected to be put into production in October. Affected by production equipment, China Power Investment Guizhou Zunyi Industrial Development Co., Ltd. stopped production in early October and is expected to resume production at the beginning of next year.

summary

At present, the crude estimated profit of aluminum ingot is 2000-2500 yuan / T, and the new production capacity is expected to increase by 460000 tons in November. At the consumption side, the cumulative consumption growth of raw aluminum in the current year is more than 3%, but the overseas epidemic situation is repeated, the pressure on the export side is large, and the downstream consumption situation in November is variable. On the cost side, the raw alumina market is soft, and the cost support is not strong. In general, the supply and demand in November is relatively balanced, and the key point is to see domestic consumption. It is expected that aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate in November.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of October 29, the comprehensive price of PC market was 16900.00 yuan / ton. The domestic PC market remained stable and the focus of negotiation was stable. Compared with the same period last week, the price of PC increased by 2.22% and 12.67% compared with that of the same period of last month. The overall trend of increase is that the price has been stable in the near future and will maintain stable operation in the short term.

The domestic PC market is running stably, the manufacturer’s shipment is normal, the device is running normally, the negotiation atmosphere is stable, the merchants ship actively, the logistics is smooth, and the inventory is not under pressure. Most of them just need to purchase with small orders. The overall atmosphere of PC is good, and it is stable in the short term. The main purpose is to digest the increase in the early stage. The latest price of the enterprise is 16400 yuan / ton for Luxi Chemical, 16100 yuan / ton for Lihua yiweiyuan, and 16100 yuan / ton for Shanghai Kesi 18200 yuan / ton, smooth delivery, normal supply, low-end reference price of 16200-18500 yuan / ton, high-end reference price of 18350-20500 yuan / ton.

The business atmosphere of bisphenol a market is flat. The reference price is about 12500-12600 yuan / T. most of them are based on negotiation. The new order customers are limited and the downstream just needs to purchase.

On October 28, the rubber and plastic index was 700 points, up 2 points compared with yesterday, 33.96% lower than 1060 (2012-03-14), and 32.58% higher than the lowest point of 528 on April 06, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

PC analysts of business agency believe that: it is expected that the PC market will be stable in the short term, with limited room for growth, and the early growth rate will be mainly absorbed. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

Compared with the daily average price of domestic propylene glycol, the average price of propylene glycol increased by 10.66% compared with the daily average price of 9366 tons, which was increased by 10.67% compared with the daily average price of 9366 tons.

At present, the domestic market of propylene glycol is stable and narrow range finishing is running

At present, the main line of domestic propylene glycol market is still stable, and some dealers adjust their prices. On the 27th, the raw material propylene oxide Market weakened, but there was still support for the propylene glycol market. Yesterday, the propylene glycol industry did not prepare for a large-scale price adjustment, but small shocks occurred from time to time, In order to alleviate the pressure, it is expected that some factories will make more profits to ship goods in the near future. In terms of demand, the end-users continue to focus on rigid demand, and the export is slightly better than before. As of October 28, the ex factory transaction price of domestic propylene glycol was 9366.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous working day. Compared with last weekend, the average price of propylene glycol increased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.36%.

Upstream, the propylene oxide market fell on October 27. As of October 27, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 18066.67 yuan / ton, down 1.81% compared with the previous trading day, and 1.63% lower than that of September 27. The start-up of Po manufacturers in Northeast China led to a short-term increase in Po supply and a strong sense of risk aversion and wait-and-see mood in the downstream. Manufacturers offered profits to ship goods, and the focus of market negotiation was lower. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 17600-17800 yuan / ton.

The weakening of raw materials or the downward impact of propylene glycol in the future market

At present, the demand for propylene glycol is normal, the confidence of the industry is still in existence, the price reduction is limited, and the quotation is basically firm. However, it is heard that the downstream has already resisted the recent sustained high price, and the raw materials have weakened in recent two days. Therefore, the business agency’s propylene glycol data analyst believes that there is a large downward risk in the market of propylene glycol in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic ABS market continued a strong trend in late October, most of the spot prices in the market still rose. As of October 26, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 17500.00 yuan / ton, which was 17.06% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

ABS upstream styrene, domestic Styrene Market in October was positive. In terms of inventory, the main port of Jiangsu Province has received more styrene ships recently, but less styrene has arrived in the later period. Styrene port inventory showed a new low to the Spring Festival, and there is a continued decline in expectations. In the next month, supply is still expected to be tight, the demand is high and stable, and the market mentality is strong. At the end of last week, the demand for crude oil at the cost side shrank due to the rebound of global epidemic situation. The international oil price fell to a certain extent, which was detrimental to the chemical industry chain, and the cost side support of styrene was weakened. In addition, the Asian Styrene Market Trading atmosphere is weak, the offer is stable, the two negative drag down the rising market, spot prices have individual correction. But on the whole, the short-term decline of styrene space is limited, the market may continue to be good.

In terms of ABS upstream acrylonitrile, the purchasing atmosphere of upstream propylene in Shandong market was low recently, and the price was significantly weakened, which hit the acrylonitrile market sentiment. The far upstream crude oil fell due to the double negative effects of the recovery of production and transportation in Libya and the deterioration of the epidemic situation. The cost support of acrylonitrile is not ideal, but the operating rate of downstream acrylic fiber and other industries remains at a high level after the festival, which has a certain basis for acrylonitrile consumption. However, the peak of replenishment after the festival lacks the “long-term” attribute, and the digestion of acrylonitrile in the future market is likely to weaken. On the supply side, it is reported that Shanghai Secco acrylonitrile production line has maintenance plan, which is favorable for spot price in the short term. It is expected that acrylonitrile will be stronger in the near future, but the price increase will be limited.

In the near future, the quotation of butadiene manufacturers in some regions has been raised by RMB 10000 / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of October 26, 2020, the average ex factory price of butadiene in China was 9200 yuan / ton, with an increase of 167.01% in the cycle, reaching a new high point in the year. Affected by the higher profits of natural rubber futures, the price of synthetic rubber in the downstream of butadiene rose significantly. In the second half of 2020, the demand for rubber will recover strongly. The downstream tire industry and rubber products industry of synthetic rubber will start to recover gradually, and the output will gradually rise. The demand for synthetic rubber will form a support, and the whole industrial chain will be favorable for linkage. At present, the sentiment of butadiene market is slowly digesting and gradually transiting to a stable finishing state. The external price continued to rise at a high level, while the domestic market was weak. The natural rubber futures strengthened, and the upstream and downstream products continued to rise strongly. The butadiene analysts of the business association predicted that the domestic butadiene market would be mainly sorted out at a high level in the short term.

After the festival, the heat of domestic ABS market continued, and the spot price also rose last week. In terms of supply, domestic ABS supply is generally tight, and the pattern remains unchanged. However, it is reported that the volume of goods delivered in South China is relatively large, resulting in the stagnation of the market, and some profit margins have been reversed. After the double festival, the enthusiasm of replenishment is good after returning to work. To today, the heat tends to weaken, and there is resistance to high price goods. At present, it is still in the traditional peak season, the purchase and sales of household appliances and other industries are still good, and there is a certain consumption base for ABS. The lower reaches of the market are resistant to high price goods. Today, ABS fluctuates and moves at a high level.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: last week ABS market remained positive, the overall price of each brand is high. Cost side of the upstream three material trend is OK, cost side of ABS support. At present, the spot supply of ABS is still tight, and the lower reaches have some resistance to high price goods and passively follow up, and the trading atmosphere has dropped. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be high consolidation in the near future.

Price trend

According to business agency data monitoring, acetic anhydride prices rose this week, acetic anhydride market continued to rise. As of October 26, the average price of acetic anhydride was 5875.00 yuan / ton, up 1.29% from 5800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (October 19), and 2.20% higher than that of last year.

Acetic acid price trend

As can be seen from the acetic acid price trend chart, the acetic acid price rose this week, the acetic anhydride market rose, the acetic anhydride cost rose, and the acetic anhydride rising power increased.

Methanol price trend

From the methanol price trend chart, we can see that the methanol market growth slowed down this week. The methanol price first rose and then fell, with an increase of 0.13%. The cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride increased, and the market of acetic anhydride was favorable.

Market review and future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business club, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials acetic acid and methanol rose this week, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose; Yankuang acetic anhydride equipment stopped, the operating rate of acetic anhydride equipment decreased, the supply of acetic anhydride decreased, and the supply of acetic anhydride enterprises was insufficient. On the whole, the production of acetic anhydride equipment decreased, the cost of acetic anhydride increased, the driving force of acetic anhydride rising increased, and the future market of acetic anhydride rose again.

According to statistics, the domestic p-xylene factory price trend is temporarily stable this week, with the average weekend price of 4450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the price of 4450 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 34.56% year on year.

The price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable, the domestic PX commencement rate is about 60%, Hongrun 600000 tons of new units are stable, Huizhou refining and chemical plant is stable, Fuhai Chuang plant starts a line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable, Yangtze Petrochemical PX unit is in normal operation, Jinling Petrochemical plant is running stably, Qingdao Lidong unit is fully loaded, Qilu Petrochemical plant is stable , Urumqi petrochemical plant starts at about 50%, Hainan Petrochemical starts a production line, Hengli petrochemical plant is in normal operation, domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. This week, the start rate of p-xylene units in Asia is about 70%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the price of PX external market in Asia fluctuates this week. As of the weekend, the closing price of the p-xylene market in Asia is 537-539 USD / T FOB Korea and 555-557 USD / t CFR China. The price trend of PX external market is mainly fluctuating this week, more than 40% of domestic products need to be imported, and the closing price of PX external market is shocked Swing has brought some support to the domestic market, and the price trend of domestic PX market is stable temporarily.

The price fluctuation of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was mainly dominated this week. As of 22, the settlement price of the main contract in the U The price rise, the price of oil failed to recover the previous trading day decline, the international crude oil price trend is volatile, which has a certain cost support impact on domestic petrochemical products, and the domestic price trend of xylene market is temporarily stable.

The price trend of PTA Market in the downstream of this week rose slightly. By the end of the weekend, the PTA Market in East China had been talking about 3450-3500 yuan self-improvement. Recently, the PTA industry started to operate at 84%, some equipment maintenance, oil price fluctuation and demand recovery range were limited, and PTA Market price was limited. Downstream polyester market is weak, production and marketing are light. Raw materials follow the price of crude oil, polyester Market Outlook atmosphere increases, demand is general. The inventory continued to rise, and the overall inventory of polyester market was concentrated on 33-41 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory was 12-18 days, FDY inventory was 23-35 days nearby, while DTY inventory was about 31-44 days. The price of the factory is stable and weak, some factories have preferential negotiation and the volume is added, and the downstream market is not improved, and the PX price trend is temporarily stable.

In a comprehensive way, the demand of textile industry has not improved significantly, the order performance is unstable, and the terminal demand is poor. For upstream Px, the main demand is purchasing on demand, and the price trend of PX market is stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at PX of business agency, thinks that the crude oil price trend is mainly volatile in the near future, but the commencement rate of downstream textile enterprises is general, the price of PTA market is not changed much, and the domestic PX market supply is normal. It is expected that the PX market price will remain stable next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the domestic soda market is stable this week. The average market price between the beginning of the week and the weekend in East China is 1883.33 yuan / ton, up 5.02% from the same period last year. The light soda commodity index was 96.58 on October 22, which was flat with yesterday, down 18.06% from the highest point 117.86 in the cycle (2017-11-21), up 52.94% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business community, the domestic soda market is temporarily stable and tidy, the market atmosphere is light, downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude is the main. The price of soda ash in Shandong Province is stable temporarily. The main light alkali is quoted at RMB 1850-1950 / T. the market atmosphere is still acceptable. The downstream manufacturers are cautious in mind. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable in the short term. The price of soda in Central China is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton, and the market atmosphere is still acceptable. However, the overall downstream manufacturers are cautious and it is expected that the prices of soda ash will be settled stably in the short term.

Raw materials: the domestic exchange of raw salt is in a good atmosphere this week, and the prices in some regions are stable and upward. The sea salt is stable in operation, and the well and salt area performs well and the price is up. Lake salt performance is not good, downstream purchasing intention is not good, market performance is light.

Demand: the general trend of the glass spot market is stable in the near future, and most production enterprises mainly increase the delivery, and the market price changes little. Generally speaking, the order situation of downstream processing enterprises remains stable, and the acceptance degree of market price increases month on month, with rigid demand as the main factor. The inventory of production enterprises has been reduced to the same period last year, and the social inventory of traders and processing enterprises also has a good consumption. The number of glass purchased directly from the production enterprises increased on a month to month basis. Because the current production enterprises offer a high price, in order to maintain a better delivery level, there is no intention to adjust the price again. Most manufacturers basically maintain the current spot market price level.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 2 commodities in the list of rise and fall of chlor alkali industry price in the 41st week (10.12-10.16) in 2020, 0 commodities falling, 3 commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities that rose were PVC (3.45%), caustic soda (1.02%); this week, the rise and fall was 0.89%.

Analysts of business society believe that the market performance of soda is light, downstream manufacturers purchase on demand, while enterprises actively ship downstream procurement mainly on demand, traders are more wait-and-see, and remain in wait-and-see status for soda. The overall trend of the spot glass market is stable, most of the production enterprises are mainly increasing the delivery, and the market price is not changed much. According to the comprehensive forecast, the domestic soda market is still sorted out in the short term, with small fluctuation mainly.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business associations, the current domestic bromine market is at a high level. As of October 22, the average price of bromine in Shandong was about 31777 yuan / ton, up 4.76% compared with the beginning of the month, and 2.69% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

At present, the domestic bromine market continues to rise, the industry as a whole starts smoothly, the enterprise inventory is low, some enterprises reduce the shipping intention for the purpose of stock preparation. As the weather turns cold, the future production increase is expected to decline, but the downstream market has already resisted the high price of bromine. At present, the mainstream bromine enterprises offer 31500-32000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the domestic sulfur market has been stable for the time being, the sulfur manufacturers’ quotation in various regions is stable, the downstream demand is stable, the business attitude is positive, the sulfur quotation in the market is firm, and the low price in the field is hard to find. The future market pays attention to the follow-up of the downstream, and at present, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers is temporarily stable, the inventory of manufacturers is small, the downstream demand is strong, and the end price of raw materials is The support is strong, at present, about 397 yuan / ton; the caustic soda market is running stably, the overall trading in the industry is fair, and the enterprise’s inventory pressure is not big, at present, it is about 500 yuan / ton. The market of main downstream flame retardants of bromine started fairly well, which supported the price of bromine strongly, but the terminal demand fell down, which contradicted the high price of bromine; the industry of pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates started in general, and the demand side had flat support for bromine price.

3、 Future forecast

The bromine industry analysts of the business agency believe that at present, the spot supply of bromine market in China is on the low side, and the output will further decline after the weather turns cold. However, the downstream market has certain resistance to the high price of bromine, and it is expected that the bromine market will still be strong in a short time.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fluctuated and adjusted in October, and the recovery of zinc market was weak. As of October 21, the average price of zinc was 20106.67 yuan / ton, up 1.94% from 19723.33 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month.

Reduction of zinc concentrate processing cost at home and abroad

According to the statistical data, in October, the processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate was 4900-5300 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 500 yuan / ton; the processing fee of imported zinc concentrate was 100-120 US dollars / ton, with a month on month decrease of 60 US dollars / ton, to the lowest value in the year. The weather turned cold, and there were signs of second outbreak of overseas epidemic, and the willingness of zinc concentrate smelters to carry out winter storage in advance increased, the demand for zinc ore increased, and the zinc concentrate processing fee decreased significantly, and there was still a risk of falling back later. The decrease of processing cost of zinc concentrate has affected the supply of domestic zinc market, and the price of zinc has the power to rise.

Import data of zinc concentrate

According to the latest customs data released by the General Administration of customs, in August 2020, 410700 physical tons of zinc concentrate were imported, 138000 physical tons increased by 50.7% compared with July, and 161000 physical tons were increased by 64.7% compared with August 2019. From January to August 2020, the total import volume was 2.713 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 749000 tons or 38.1%. In August, the import volume of zinc concentrate increased significantly on a month on month basis, which was in line with the expectation. The main reason was that overseas mines further resumed work and production, and port shipping gradually returned to normal. On the whole, the import of zinc increased significantly.

Domestic zinc market inventory

Product inventory increase / decrease time

Zinc 16019.0 October 1

Zinc 15844 – 175 October 9

Zinc 17545 1701 October 12

Zinc 17997 452 OCT 13

Zinc 20658 2661 Oct 14

Zinc 25325 4667 October 15

Zinc 24797 – 528 OCT 16

Zinc 23795 – 1002 October 19

Zinc 20483 – 3312 October 20

Zinc 17640 – 2843 October 21

From the zinc inventory data of Shanghai futures market in October, we can see that zinc ingot inventory first rose and then fell, and the domestic zinc market substantially de stocked, reflecting the good performance of domestic zinc market demand and domestic zinc market recovery.

Analysis, review and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, believes that: in October, the processing fee of zinc concentrate decreased, the rising power of zinc price increased, the import of zinc concentrate increased, the supply of domestic zinc concentrate was sufficient, and the driving force for the rise of zinc market was insufficient. The domestic zinc market inventory decreased, but the international zinc ingot inventory was sufficient, the overall global zinc market supply was sufficient, the probability of foreign zinc ingot inflow into China increased, and the domestic zinc price rise did not support enough. In general, the coexistence of long and short factors, the future price of zinc shock adjustment.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

The melamine market rose slightly on October 20. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of October 20, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 5600 yuan / ton, up 0.60% compared with the previous trading day and 3.70% higher than September 20.

At present, the operation rate of melamine has increased slightly, domestic demand has been stable, some export orders have been able to perform well, enterprises have no pressure to take the goods, and the melamine market is steadily rising. At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Shandong is around 5500 yuan / ton, that in Xinjiang is around 4900 yuan / ton, and that in Sichuan is around 5400 yuan / ton.

Upstream urea, on October 19, urea market in the East rose slightly. The recent high-level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has a good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts from the business agency believe that the current upstream urea price is slightly rising, and the cost side has a certain support. Enterprises are supported by advance orders and the delivery is fair. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.