Price list of aluminum ingot
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According to the data of the business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market on October 30 was 14843.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.00% compared with the average market price of 14696.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1), 1.99% higher than the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), 14553.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 32.10% compared with the valley value of the average market price in the year (March 24).
In October, the price of aluminum ingot was relatively strong, and the overall operation was horizontal.
In November, the price of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum may maintain the horizontal trend
Multiple arguments:
1. Low level operation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory
According to statistical data, as of October 23, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) totaled 695000 tons, compared with 24000 tons that went to the warehouse on October 16; aluminum rod inventory decreased by 10600 tons to 41300 tons.
At present, the start-up of downstream leading enterprises has remained relatively stable, and export orders have been restored; in terms of domestic trade, orders for industrial profiles, plates and strips, and aluminum alloy ingots have remained stable, mainly from transportation fields such as automobile, photovoltaic and rail transit, while orders for architectural profiles are weak.
The average daily retail sales of 42000 vehicles in October 1-3 weeks increased by 16% year-on-year and 3% month on month compared with the same period in September.
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Fitch solutions said in its latest report that China’s accelerated implementation of the “new infrastructure” program would boost production of high-end metals rather than primary metals. Fitch reports that new infrastructure projects, including 5g networks, data centers and artificial intelligence systems, as well as transport and energy infrastructure, such as ultra high voltage (UHV) technology, charging stations and high-speed rail, require a large amount of metals, especially lighter and more advanced metals, in construction. Fitch estimates that nearly 1 million tons of high-end aluminum and 32 million tons of special steel will be needed for China’s new infrastructure projects in 2020 alone, accounting for 3% of the domestic demand for these two metals. This number will continue to rise in 2021 and 2022 as more projects are put into operation. UHV power cables will be the main driver of these metals demand.
On the trend, the risk of large accumulation of aluminum ingots is not big.
Short argument:
1. The continuous tightening of the real estate policy has a great impact on the consumption of aluminum profiles, and the subsequent accumulation risk is increased;
2. The production of raw material alumina is expected to increase greatly, and the cost factor suppresses the rise of aluminum price.
Recently, the hydro bauxite pipeline has resumed operation, which is used to transport bauxite from paragominas mine to alunorte alumina plant. Production at paragominas bauxite mine has resumed and alumina production is in the recovery stage.
At home, Guangxi Huasheng New Material Co., Ltd. has built a production capacity of 1 million tons, and its current operating capacity is 1 million tons / year, and the other 1 million tons is expected to be put into production in October. Affected by production equipment, China Power Investment Guizhou Zunyi Industrial Development Co., Ltd. stopped production in early October and is expected to resume production at the beginning of next year.
summary
At present, the crude estimated profit of aluminum ingot is 2000-2500 yuan / T, and the new production capacity is expected to increase by 460000 tons in November. At the consumption side, the cumulative consumption growth of raw aluminum in the current year is more than 3%, but the overseas epidemic situation is repeated, the pressure on the export side is large, and the downstream consumption situation in November is variable. On the cost side, the raw alumina market is soft, and the cost support is not strong. In general, the supply and demand in November is relatively balanced, and the key point is to see domestic consumption. It is expected that aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate in November.
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