1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on October 30, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7066 yuan / ton, with a small price fluctuation, and the price fluctuation range was 100-300 yuan / ton, and the carbon black market was mainly volatile this month.

2、 Market analysis

Market

Carbon black continues to inventory, supply and demand are gradually tightened: the domestic carbon black capacity is over production in general, with a total capacity of 8million tons in 2019, with a starting rate of 57%. Only leading enterprises maintain high starting load, and the new capacity of the industry slows down. In 2020, the downstream demand was depressed due to the epidemic. In April, carbon black inventory reached 250000 tons. High inventory and low profit forced the industry to reduce its start, and the carbon black industry entered a new supply and demand balance. In recent years, the demand for downstream tires rebounded, and the supply and demand of the industry began to tighten. In June, the domestic carbon black construction rate fell to 45%. After the new balance between supply and demand, under the promotion of downstream demand, the commencement rate gradually increased to 60%, gradually restored to 2019 level, and the space for commencement and improvement in the future was limited. At present, carbon black inventory has been reduced to 180000 tons, and downstream demand continues to warm up, and industry inventory is expected to further decline.

Upstream and downstream

In October, the coal tar market was operating in a warmer way, with the main increase of 210-230 yuan / ton, and the cost of transferring to carbon black increased by 300-400 yuan / ton; pressure on cost side formed a favorable support for the rise of carbon black price. Support cost of raw coal tar: coal tar is the main raw material of carbon black. In recent years, coal tar is rising, and the cost end of carbon black is strong. At present, the starting load of coke enterprises is high, but the supply and demand of coal tar is still tight, and the downstream deep processing keeps a considerable commencement rate. In addition, there is a demand for goods preparation in the downstream enterprises of coal tar during the national day. The price of coal tar continues to be strong, and the cost end forms support for carbon black.

The demand of downstream tire is warm and rebound: carbon black is used to add tire rubber to improve strength and wear resistance, and the demand of downstream tire accounts for 70%. The demand for tires affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year was low. From January to June, the domestic automobile production was 9.96 million, with a year-on-18%, and the tire output of 278million, which was -31% year on year. The profit of carbon black fell to a low level, and the price difference of “carbon black coal tar” was reduced to 750 yuan at the lowest. In the second half of the year, with the epidemic under control, the consumption of automobiles recovered. In August, the domestic automobile production was 2.12 million, up 6.3% year-on-year, and the sales volume was 2.19 million, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year. The domestic automobile demand has turned positive and overseas exports are positive. In August, the output of steel tires was 43.51 million, up 7.91% year on year, and that of all steel tires was 12.5 million, up 21% year-on-year. The number of new pneumatic rubber tires in July was 47.29 million, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year and a 30.3% increase on a year-on-year basis. The half steel tire operating rate was increased to 70.53%, and the whole steel tire operating rate was increased to 74.27%. In addition, in August, more than one tire enterprise increased its price, and the industry trend recovered.

3、 Post market forecast

In the fourth quarter of 2020, carbon black still has tight supply and strong price or strong operation; in 2021, downstream demand enters the traditional off-season and the coming Spring Festival holiday, the carbon black price continues to push up and hold pressure. Analysts believe that the price is stable and fluctuates slightly.