According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8625 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.23% compared to the beginning of this month (8520 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: The market supply is sufficient. Due to sufficient inventory, domestic epoxy propane is showing an upward trend. However, weak demand has led to a weak game between supply and demand, resulting in a decline in the price of epichlorohydrin.

Raw material side: At the end of October, the raw material propylene market experienced a slight decline. Although the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the company reduces profits by selling at low prices, resulting in a decrease in actual trading volume. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6860.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.34% compared to the beginning of this month (6513.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream order volume has slightly increased, but the sustainability is weak, and the supply and demand transmission is not smooth. Many adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the epoxy propane market is experiencing a situation of mixed ups and downs.

Market forecast:

An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply-demand game has led to a decline in epoxy propane prices. It is expected that there will be a slight increase in epoxy propane in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 28th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China is 6790 yuan/ton, which is 0.15% higher than the reference average price of 6780 yuan/ton on October 21st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 28th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is 6950 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average price of 6950 yuan/ton on October 21st.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

As of October 28th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6850-7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6750-7000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7050 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the market price of yellow phosphorus has shown a strong upward trend. The market supply has decreased, and yellow phosphorus enterprises have raised their quotations, shifting the focus of transactions. Downstream on-demand procurement remains cautious towards high priced yellow phosphorus.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the phosphate ore market is stable, with a relatively balanced supply and demand, and the market is mainly driven by essential needs. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This month, the supply of phosphoric acid in the market is still acceptable, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with cautious procurement. At present, the supply and demand are relatively balanced, and there is no significant fluctuation in the market situation.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been consolidating and operating recently. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, leading to an increase in cost support. Downstream demand is dominant, and the market tends to adopt a wait-and-see attitude with few new orders. Short term phosphoric acid market prices are expected to experience a narrow consolidation.

Ethylene glycol prices fall in October

In October, ethylene glycol first rose and then fell, and after a rapid increase after the holiday, the sentiment subsided and the price gradually fell back. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 28th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.39% from September 26th.

On October 28, 2024, the operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was 4610-4650 yuan/ton. The spot contract basis of ethylene glycol at the port slightly loosened during the day, and the market was initially low and then high. The actual spot transaction price of the contract slightly increased in the afternoon, but there were few transactions, mainly low hanging and receiving goods. Today, the spot market opened in the morning, and the contract basis quotation for this week was+40 to+43. In the afternoon, the basis quotation for this week fell to+38 to+40. In November, the basis quotation for this week was+40 to+43.

On October 28th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4165 to 4300 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On October 24, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was 546 US dollars/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton.

Crude oil prices plummet in foreign markets, while ethylene glycol cost support remains weak

One of the factors contributing to the rebound in ethylene glycol prices at the beginning of the month is the low inventory of imported ethylene glycol ports combined with the cost support brought by the rebound in external crude oil prices. However, today’s crude oil opened with a jump of 4-5%, and the cost support for ethylene glycol weakened in the external market.

The expectation of a rebound in port inventory remains high

The explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol at the port is still relatively low, but there is an expectation of an increase in recent arrivals. The weekend delivery was good, but the inventory did not continue to accumulate, mainly due to the contract being transferred and picked up on the weekend in October; As of October 28, 2024, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in major ports in East China was 603700 tons, up from 515200 tons on October 14, with a cumulative inventory of 88500 tons. This week, it is expected that there will be a large amount of ethylene glycol arriving at the port, and there is still an expectation of a rebound in port inventory.

Domestic supply rebounds

On the supply side, due to the impact of price recovery factors in the early stage, the total operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol began to recover, and the operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol slightly increased, resulting in a slight increase in production.

Demand side: The downstream polyester load is relatively high, and the filament maintains a high operating load, with little room for further improvement. Terminal autumn and winter orders have still fallen short of expectations recently, with no improvement seen in the short term.

Future expectations

The previous surge in ethylene glycol prices was mainly due to favorable domestic macroeconomic conditions, coupled with low port supply; In addition, the resonance of rising prices in the polyester sector has caused the price of ethylene glycol to climb to a high level for the year.

Recently, international crude oil prices have weakened and cost support has been weak. Coupled with the concentration of ports, inventory data has shown a short-term upward trend, and ethylene glycol prices have begun to fall.

The future price variables of ethylene glycol mainly depend on overseas supply and cost support, and it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate weakly in the short term.

This week (10.19-10.25), the demand for dichloromethane in the market was weak, and the market in Shandong continued to weaken. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2665 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 6.49%.

The market inventory is under pressure, and the transaction atmosphere is flat. Shandong’s major factories have significantly lowered their quotations, and terminals are taking goods on demand. The demand side is mostly adopting a wait-and-see and bearish attitude. As of October 25th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2620-2700 yuan/ton.

Supply side: The production of methane chloride will increase.

In terms of raw materials: Recently, methanol production reduction and maintenance have been favorable, and the market has slightly rebounded after falling to a low level. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the spot price of methanol was 2445.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.11% from the beginning of the month. The liquid chlorine market is fluctuating and rising, and the trading atmosphere is still acceptable.

In terms of demand: refrigerant demand is essential for procurement, with increased quotas released within R32. Air conditioning orders are locked in price, and export volume continues to increase. The overall market is improving, and foreign trade offers are currently significantly higher than those in the domestic market.

Business analysts believe that with the resumption of production of enterprise maintenance equipment, market supply is gradually increasing, demand is mainly driven by essential needs, and buying at low prices is expected. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will weaken and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market recently (10.12-10.24) showed a narrow consolidation. As of October 24th, the spot rubber market in China was around 17184 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% from 17238 yuan/ton on October 12th. Recently, raw material prices have fallen slightly from high levels; Domestic Tianjian inventory continues to slowly decline; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, but have some resistance to high priced sources, resulting in a narrow consolidation of the natural rubber market at a high level.

With the arrival of the peak season for the opening and cutting of natural rubber in the fourth quarter, there is upward resistance in the price of raw rubber; The prices of natural rubber raw materials both domestically and internationally remain high with a slight decline. As of October 24th, the price of Thai glue is 74.00 baht/kg, which is lower than the price of 79.50 baht/kg on October 10th; As of October 24th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas was around 18600 yuan/ton, a decrease from the price of 19300 yuan/ton on October 10th.

Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of October 20, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 402500 tons, a decrease of 1.95% compared to the previous period.

With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, downstream production of all steel tires is running at a low level, and downstream inquiries are mostly based on demand, providing essential support for the natural rubber market. However, there is a strong wait-and-see attitude towards high priced goods sources. As of October 16th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 60%.

Market forecast: The current high supply prices of raw materials both domestically and internationally are expected to experience a slight decline; The tire market supports the demand for natural rubber, but is resistant to high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjian is showing a slow trend of destocking; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on October 21st, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9237 yuan/ton. On October 13th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9500 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.55%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in recent times (10.13-10.18), the overall domestic cyclohexanone market has shown a weak downward trend, with a lack of positive support and boost in the cyclohexanone market, and market prices have been continuously approaching low levels. As of October 21st, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong region is around 9300-9400 yuan/ton, and the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Inner Mongolia region is around 9050-9100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors:.

In terms of cost: Recently, the market for pure benzene on the cost side of cyclohexanone has been consistently weak and declining,

The continuous decrease in cost has provided poor support for cyclohexanone.

On the demand side: Currently, the overall trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is light, with high priced transactions being relatively quiet. Downstream users are mainly cautious in their first-time purchases, and the support provided by demand for cyclohexanone is limited.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the transmission between supply and demand in the cyclohexanone market is weak, with slow shipments from the supply side and average downstream demand conversion. According to the data analyst of Business Society’s cyclohexanone data, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range in the near future, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market fluctuated within a certain range this week. On Monday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6760 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 6760 yuan/ton, unchanged from Monday.

This week, the domestic isopropanol market fluctuated within a certain range. At present, the trading atmosphere on the exchange is light, with limited actual transactions. There is a strong wait-and-see attitude on the exchange, and there is a strong need to buy goods, so actual orders follow the market. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6700-6750 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6950-7000 yuan/ton, while prices in the South China region are around 7050-7100 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone fluctuated slightly and fell this week. The average price of acetone on Monday was 5952.5 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5927.5 yuan/ton. Overall, the price decreased by 0.42%. At present, the domestic acetone market is slightly weak, with average production in terminal factories and a focus on purchasing for essential needs. There is a scarcity of active market entry and hoarding, and traders are affected by market sentiment, increasing their willingness to sell at a discount. The market is showing signs of stalemate, and it is expected that the acetone market will fluctuate within a certain range today.

In terms of propylene, the overall price of propylene in the market has decreased this week. On Monday, the average domestic propylene price was 6835.75 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 6810.75 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.37%. At present, the inventory of enterprises has increased, and downstream demand is the main factor, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the market may experience a strong consolidation and operation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyi Society believes that the isopropanol market will fluctuate and consolidate within a certain range this week. The acetone market experienced a slight fluctuation and decline, while the propylene market price decreased, resulting in insufficient cost support. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, with a focus on buying at low prices for essential needs. It is expected that the isopropanol market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the lithium carbonate market showed a slight rebound trend after the holiday. As of October 14th, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 81400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% from 77800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 78800 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.79% from 75200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In terms of inventory: As of the end of September, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 124600 tons, a decrease of 2095 tons compared to the previous month. Among them, 5035 tons were unloaded from the upstream, and 2939 tons were accumulated from downstream and other links. The destocking of upstream smelters has a positive impact on market prices, driving up prices. However, in the long run, the supply side has not yet seen large-scale production cuts, and the planned increase in production of new lithium salt projects is still significant. InfoLink predicts that the total global output of lithium carbonate is expected to reach 1.323 million tons by 2024.

On the demand side: Since July, the production schedule of the lithium battery industry chain has continued to increase. Especially in October, the production of batteries, separators, and electrolytes continued to increase month on month. Among them, the production growth rate of battery factories is between 3% and 5%, while the production growth rate of separator and electrolyte manufacturers is around 2%. The continuous improvement of production scheduling in the lithium battery industry chain not only drives an increase in demand for lithium carbonate, but also helps to further digest excess inventory.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the current lithium battery industry chain production continues to increase, and the demand for lithium carbonate has also increased, which will help further digest excess inventory. However, in the medium to long term, the market supply and demand relationship still faces a game, requiring close attention to market dynamics and policy changes.

This week (10.6-10.12), the dichloromethane market showed a significant upward trend, and the pause button was pressed on the 11th. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2880 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.88%.

Affected by the positive news of large factories’ parking and maintenance, the enthusiasm of dichloromethane enterprises to increase their offers after the holiday is significantly stronger. The dichloromethane market has shown a significant upward trend, but the market demand is limited, and the trading atmosphere has weakened to some extent. Under the high price, the willingness of merchants to accept orders has decreased significantly, and the current market situation is temporarily stable. As of October 12th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2850-2910 yuan/ton.

Supply side: Large factories shut down for maintenance, and methane chloride production slightly decreased.

In terms of raw materials, prices have weakened after the holiday. The focus of the raw material methanol market has shifted downwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 11th, the spot price of methanol was 2505.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78% from early October. Macro support has weakened, with significant declines in the spot market and weak supply and demand fundamentals. The liquid chlorine market continues to decline, with chlor alkali companies in some areas of Shandong experiencing an increase in liquid chlorine exports due to downstream equipment maintenance. Coupled with limited downstream demand in the region, there is significant pressure on companies to ship, resulting in a wide range of price reductions for liquid chlorine.

On the demand side: There has been no fluctuation in the downstream refrigerant R32 air conditioning enterprise orders after implementation, and export demand is concentrated after the National Day holiday. The enterprise’s order situation has greatly improved, and retail orders have increased to 40000 yuan/ton. The market is still bullish and not bearish. Positive support for dichloromethane formation.

Business analysts believe that the news of major factories stopping for maintenance is positive, but there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the demand side, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will mainly consolidate and operate.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China was 7666.67 yuan/ton. In September, cyclohexane prices showed a weak downward trend, with a 2.13% decrease compared to the same period last month. The overall market lacks upward momentum, and manufacturers currently have average downstream demand. The market transaction atmosphere is positive, and the prices of mainstream cyclohexane factories are stable with a weak trend.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: Domestic pure benzene prices continue to decline, and the current atmosphere of on-site negotiations is average. The international crude oil market is volatile, with average support for pure benzene. Port inventory is mainly depleted, but there is a high accumulation of inventory in the future, and the market mentality is unstable. Shandong local refineries continue to offer discounts to promote spot sales.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is currently insufficient support on the upstream cost side and weak downstream demand, and it is expected that the short-term upward momentum of the cyclohexane market will be insufficient.