1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 11th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6870 yuan/ton, which is 0.15% higher than the reference average price of 6860 yuan/ton on December 5th.
2、 Market analysis
Market aspect
The market price of phosphoric acid has slightly increased this week. As of December 11th, the factory price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6800-7000 yuan/ton, in Yunnan region it is around 6600-6900 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 6750-7000 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost
In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of raw material yellow phosphorus has risen this week. The supply of yellow phosphorus in the market has decreased, and many manufacturers are holding a reluctance to sell, focusing on raising prices. As a result, the transaction price of yellow phosphorus has increased. Downstream procurement based on demand, with a focus on cautious observation.
3、 Future forecast
The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the phosphate market is stable and upward. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has risen, and cost support has increased. At present, the supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are stable, and downstream purchases are made on demand. It is expected that the short-term domestic phosphoric acid market will be dominated by strong consolidation.

On December 10th, the diethylene glycol market continued to decline weakly, with spot prices in East China closing at 3040 yuan/ton, -5 yuan/ton; South China closed at 3200 yuan/ton, -35 yuan/ton.
Fundamental analysis
Supply: During this period (December 9-15), Zhangjiagang is expected to receive 11100 tons of cargo by ship, with a large total cargo volume. From the distribution of shipping schedules and the number of single ships, the main port inventory is expected to narrow first and then increase during the week. As of December 9th, Fubao’s inventory was 11900 tons, and Changjiang announced its inventory every Monday.
Demand: There has been no improvement in terminal demand, with an average of 37% of domestic unsaturated resin factories operating at full capacity, unchanged from last week, putting pressure on traders to ship. On December 9th, the total amount of ethylene glycol shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang was 1429 tons, a decrease of 229 tons from the previous day’s shipment as of now.
Cost: Some oil fields in Iraq have resumed production, and the United States is still pushing for Russia Ukraine peace talks. Coupled with the continued OPEC+production increase atmosphere, international oil prices have fallen, and cost support has weakened.
Market expectation: International crude oil is operating weakly, and fundamentals remain weak. The price of diethylene glycol is still prone to decline but difficult to rise due to the impact of product structure, and the mentality of industry players is at the bottom and difficult to improve. In the short term, the market may show a bottom adjustment intention, but in the medium and long term, new lows cannot be ruled out.

This week, the domestic potassium chloride market ended its bearish sentiment after the signing of major contracts, and prices returned to an upward trend and high levels. As of December 9th, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) by Shengyi Society was 3533.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95% compared to the beginning of this month (3500.00 yuan/ton).
Supply reality support: Port inventory is at a historically low level, coupled with the traditional winter maintenance period for domestically produced potassium, resulting in tight spot circulation.
Expected demand activation: Especially in the Northeast region, the market is activated with the seasons, and procurement demand is gradually released. In this context, the market mentality has stabilized from idle, and prices in the northern region have significantly increased. Among them, Laos’ powdered potassium and granular potassium have seen the most significant increase due to their cost-effectiveness and regional advantages, driving the overall market atmosphere to recover.
Supply side:
Domestic potassium: The operating rate remains low, about 45.3% this week, with a weekly output of about 85500 tons, a decrease of about 10% compared to the previous week. The manufacturer’s inventory decreased significantly by 56.1% year-on-year to 291500 tons, and the source of goods was mostly directly supplied to downstream compound fertilizer factories, resulting in limited circulation of bulk cargo in the market.
Imported potassium: Although port inventory has recovered, as of December 4th it was about 2.47 million tons, an increase of 60000 tons from last week, but still a significant decrease of 430000 tons from the same period last year. The increase in inventory has not yet been effectively converted into marketable resources, and spot supply remains tight in most regions.
Although the total supply volume on the supply side has slowly recovered, it is still limited by the decline in production, low inventory, and shipping pace, resulting in insufficient short-term market effective supply, which has become the core support for prices.
Demand side:
The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises has significantly rebounded, reaching about 38.5% this week, with a month on month increase of about 5.1%. Especially in the northern region, the launch of terminal stocking has driven an increase in raw material inquiries and purchases. Although the demand support is higher than before, the current price has reached a relatively high level, and downstream factories and traders’ purchasing behavior tends to be rational. They generally adopt the strategy of “replenishing inventory on demand and buying at low prices”, which limits their acceptance of the continuously rising prices and forms a certain resistance.
In summary, the potassium chloride market has been operating strongly this week, driven by the reality of low inventory and seasonal demand expectations. In the long run, the diversification of import sources is enhancing the resilience of the supply chain; In the short term, tight supply-demand balance remains the key to dominating the market, and the market will oscillate between strong reality (tight supply) and “weak sentiment” (cautious high prices). It is recommended that businesses remain cautious and optimistic, prioritize the protection of essential needs, and closely monitor the process of port inventory circulation and policy trends.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline in the first half of November, rebounded in the second half, and remained stable in early December. As of December 5th, the average bid price for maleic anhydride was 5250 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 2.33% from 5375 yuan/ton on November 1st.
In terms of supply, the maleic anhydride market continued to decline in mid to early November, and the overall transaction situation of Wanhua auction was poor, with prices falling overall, providing limited support for the maleic anhydride market. The prices of major maleic anhydride factories also fell accordingly; In late November, the market for maleic anhydride continued to rise, with Wanhua’s auction prices continuing to rise, supporting the maleic anhydride market. The prices of major factories for maleic anhydride continued to rise, and coupled with the planned shutdown of facilities in Jiangsu, boosting the domestic maleic anhydride market, the maleic anhydride market continued to rise. As of December 5th, the factory price of solid anhydride in the maleic anhydride market in Shandong is around 4950 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 4750 yuan/ton.
Upstream: In November, the price of pure benzene in the Shandong region fluctuated and rose. On November 1st, the price was 5172 yuan/ton; On December 5th, the price was 5254.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.59% from the beginning of the month. Recently, the spot market prices in East China have been mainly stable. Currently, industry players have positive expectations for the future of pure benzene, and the market is running strongly. Recently, the shipment situation in Shandong has been good, and there is good confidence in the market. The prices of local refining enterprises have slightly increased.
The overall price of n-butane in the domestic market increased in November, and as of December 5th, the price in Shandong was around 4620 yuan/ton.
Downstream: The weak consolidation of the unsaturated resin market in November is the main reason, and downstream procurement maintains rigid demand, with limited support for unsaturated resin.
Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that as we enter December, the overall domestic market for maleic anhydride will mainly consolidate, and the Jiangsu plant plans to shut down in early December; The South China device shows a decrease in load performance; Wanhua’s auction results were poor, with prices overall declining and market wait-and-see sentiment increasing; In addition, the downstream unsaturated resin demand for maleic anhydride is mainly driven by procurement, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 1st to 5th, the domestic BDO price remained at 7385 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.77% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.98%. The domestic BDO market has little fluctuation, with continued trading of contract orders and a light atmosphere for spot negotiations. The game between supply and demand continues, making it difficult for the market to fluctuate.
In terms of supply and equipment, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, and the supply side support is weak. The favorable factors for BDO supply have weakened.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The overall domestic calcium carbide market is on the rise, with smooth shipments from production enterprises and a tight supply situation in the market. Raw material methanol: The methanol market has risen due to multiple factors, including reduced supply caused by poor operation of facilities in major factories in the northwest, orderly release of demand for olefins in mainland China, no significant pressure on manufacturers’ inventory, and positive market sentiment. As of 10:00 am on December 5th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2090 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol have both risen, and the cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG and TPU have seen a decline in production, while other downstream industries have remained relatively stable, resulting in a slight decrease in overall demand. At the same time, the weak market conditions in downstream industries have suppressed the bargaining sentiment towards raw materials and suppressed the trend of raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: Currently, the supply and demand game in the domestic BDO market continues, and the market center of gravity is difficult to fluctuate. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market has limited volatility.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the average market price of acetic acid was 2550.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 46.67 yuan/ton or 1.86% compared to the price of 2503.33 yuan/ton on November 21st. This week, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise. The utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity is not high, and the market inventory supply has decreased. At the end of the month, there was an increase in long-term orders from factories, resulting in a decrease in enterprise inventory. Acetic acid prices have risen sharply, and downstream inquiries have increased. The market atmosphere is strong, and the combination of positive factors in the market supports the strong upward trend of acetic acid prices.
This week, the raw material methanol market has risen sharply. As of the 28th, the average price in the domestic market was 2115 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.02% compared to the price of 1995 yuan/ton on November 21st. The limited supply of natural gas from overseas has led to the successive shutdown of overseas facilities, an increase in port outbound shipments, and a rebound in port market prices. At the same time, it has boosted the spot market, increased downstream demand, and smooth shipments from methanol companies, resulting in a strong methanol market.
The downstream acetic anhydride market fluctuated, with the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride dropping from 4025.00 yuan/ton to 4012.50 yuan/ton from November 21st to 28th, a decrease of 0.31%. The upstream acetic acid market is relatively strong, the cost pressure of acetic anhydride is increasing, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, the demand performance is weak, the market transaction atmosphere is not good, and the price of acetic anhydride is running weakly during the cycle.
In terms of future market forecast, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the inventory of domestic acetic acid enterprises continues to decline, the support of manufacturers’ mentality is improving, downstream demand is steadily following up, and the sentiment of industry players is relatively high. It is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to operate strongly in the later stage, and attention will be paid to the market supply situation in the future.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall price of bromine has risen this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 30000 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 32800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.33% and a year-on-year increase of 46.43%. On November 27th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 115.09, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 53.06% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 95.33% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present).
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price of bromine in Shandong region remained firm. The reference ex factory price for spot goods is 32500-33000 yuan/ton, and the current mainstream transaction price is 32500 yuan/ton. Due to weather and policy reasons, domestic bromine enterprises still have tight inventory and insufficient industry operating rates, but downstream enterprises have average purchasing enthusiasm. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been rising, with an average market price of 3284.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 3844.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has increased by 17.05%, which is 133.79% higher than the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain strong this month, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain strong this month. Bromine supply is tight in the near future, but downstream buyers tend to purchase on demand, leading to resistance to price increases. Overall, it is expected that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the price of lead 1 # was 17055 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 0.44% compared to the lead price of 17130 yuan/ton on November 24th.
This week’s market analysis
In terms of futures, the main contract for Shanghai lead closed at 16985 yuan/ton, achieving a 0.47% increase. At the beginning of the trading session, the main price of Shanghai lead was consolidating horizontally and briefly rising, followed by a slight correction. Then, under pressure, it maintained a narrow range oscillation trend and rose slightly before the close. In terms of spot goods, the merchants holding the goods choose to sell at a higher price to maintain the price, and the premium in the quotation has increased. At the same time, the quotes for direct delivery from electrolytic lead smelters have become more stringent, while recycled lead companies are reluctant to sell due to low prices, and some recycled refined lead has even suspended shipments. Downstream enterprises make purchases based on actual needs and tend to prefer low-priced sources, making it difficult to close deals with high quotes. Upstream and downstream enterprises generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is relatively quiet.
supply side
Recently, recycled lead enterprises in Anhui, Jiangsu and other places have been affected by license renewal and are still in a state of production reduction or shutdown. At the same time, the maintenance work of recycled lead enterprises in northern regions has not been completed yet. In this context, the decline in lead prices has compressed the profit margins of smelting enterprises, and some companies have suspended the sales of recycled refined lead as a result. As a result, downstream enterprises are more inclined to choose native lead products when purchasing. In addition, native lead enterprises also have maintenance situations, which makes the supply of lead ingots in some areas relatively tight. In order to meet rigid demands, downstream enterprises have begun to turn to social warehouses around their consumption areas for procurement.
Demand side
There is currently no significant change in the terminal market, and battery production remains stable. In terms of segmented markets, the demand for electric bicycle batteries has weakened, while the performance of the electric tricycle battery market is still acceptable, and the automotive battery market remains stable. It is expected that battery companies will continue to adopt the strategy of producing according to orders until the number of new orders rebounds.
comprehensive analysis
The maintenance activities of primary lead smelting enterprises have increased, and if lead prices continue to weaken, the production enthusiasm of recycled lead enterprises may decrease beyond expectations. It is expected that the tight supply of lead ingots in some regions and the low social inventory will provide strong downward support for lead prices. Overall, it is expected that lead prices will likely fluctuate and weaken next week.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market remained strong and rose in November. On November 1st, the market price of aniline was 7995 yuan/ton, and on November 27th it was 8045 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.63% during the period and a decrease of 12.77% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
The aniline market turned from weak to strong in November, mainly supported by the cost and supply sides. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw material pure benzene slightly increased, and the production of raw material nitric acid in the main production areas was low. The price of nitric acid was tight and the price increased. The production of aniline enterprises for nitric acid extraction was restricted, and there was a possibility of negative pressure in the later stage. Under the boost from the raw material side, aniline factories collectively raised prices, resulting in active transactions and continuous price increases for aniline. In the middle of the month, the price of aniline stabilized after rising, and aniline companies had smooth shipments with little inventory pressure. At the end of the month, with tight supply and stable demand in the main production areas of East China, aniline continued to rise, and downstream purchases were made on demand, resulting in stable transactions.
Pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuated at a low level in November. The overall supply remains loose, with downstream essential purchases being the main focus. Some loss making varieties have reduced production to maintain prices, and overall demand support is limited. The pure benzene market has rebounded multiple times within the month, but due to demand constraints, the magnitude is limited. Under weak fundamentals, the pure benzene market is prone to decline but difficult to rise.
3、 Future expectations
At present, the supply side of the aniline market is strongly supported, the raw material pure benzene remains weak, and the demand side remains stable. Under the long short game, it is expected that the aniline market will operate strongly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7088 yuan/ton on November 1st and 6980 yuan/ton on November 25th, a decrease of 1.53%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9316 yuan/ton on November 1st and 9016 yuan/ton on November 25th, a decrease of 3.22%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7650 yuan/ton on November 1st and 7437 yuan/ton on November 25th, a decrease of 2.78%.
The supply and demand fundamentals of polyethylene remained unchanged in November, and the weakness continued, with a relatively large decline in high-pressure products. In terms of supply, there has been an increase in the restart of maintenance equipment in the early stage, and the release of new production capacity has not reduced the pressure on supply. On the demand side: The e-commerce festival has boosted the packaging film industry, but after the pre holiday stocking ends, the operating rate has fallen slightly; The peak season for the agricultural film industry has ended, and downstream customers are cautious in receiving goods, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The main focus is on essential purchases, but the support is insufficient. The market lacks favorable conditions and has a bearish mentality. Petrochemical companies and traders continue to lower prices for shipments. In the short term, weak fluctuations in international oil prices have limited impact on the polyethylene market.
Supply pressure still exists, market transactions are cautious, downstream factories are replenishing inventory at low prices, and demand has entered the off-season. It is expected that polyethylene will mainly operate weakly.