According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the price of lead 1 # was 17055 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 0.44% compared to the lead price of 17130 yuan/ton on November 24th.
This week’s market analysis
In terms of futures, the main contract for Shanghai lead closed at 16985 yuan/ton, achieving a 0.47% increase. At the beginning of the trading session, the main price of Shanghai lead was consolidating horizontally and briefly rising, followed by a slight correction. Then, under pressure, it maintained a narrow range oscillation trend and rose slightly before the close. In terms of spot goods, the merchants holding the goods choose to sell at a higher price to maintain the price, and the premium in the quotation has increased. At the same time, the quotes for direct delivery from electrolytic lead smelters have become more stringent, while recycled lead companies are reluctant to sell due to low prices, and some recycled refined lead has even suspended shipments. Downstream enterprises make purchases based on actual needs and tend to prefer low-priced sources, making it difficult to close deals with high quotes. Upstream and downstream enterprises generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is relatively quiet.
supply side
Recently, recycled lead enterprises in Anhui, Jiangsu and other places have been affected by license renewal and are still in a state of production reduction or shutdown. At the same time, the maintenance work of recycled lead enterprises in northern regions has not been completed yet. In this context, the decline in lead prices has compressed the profit margins of smelting enterprises, and some companies have suspended the sales of recycled refined lead as a result. As a result, downstream enterprises are more inclined to choose native lead products when purchasing. In addition, native lead enterprises also have maintenance situations, which makes the supply of lead ingots in some areas relatively tight. In order to meet rigid demands, downstream enterprises have begun to turn to social warehouses around their consumption areas for procurement.
Demand side
There is currently no significant change in the terminal market, and battery production remains stable. In terms of segmented markets, the demand for electric bicycle batteries has weakened, while the performance of the electric tricycle battery market is still acceptable, and the automotive battery market remains stable. It is expected that battery companies will continue to adopt the strategy of producing according to orders until the number of new orders rebounds.
comprehensive analysis
The maintenance activities of primary lead smelting enterprises have increased, and if lead prices continue to weaken, the production enthusiasm of recycled lead enterprises may decrease beyond expectations. It is expected that the tight supply of lead ingots in some regions and the low social inventory will provide strong downward support for lead prices. Overall, it is expected that lead prices will likely fluctuate and weaken next week.