As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell first and then rose this month. The price of hydrochloric acid fell from 163.33 yuan/ton on September 1 to 153.3 yuan/ton on September 10, a decline of 6.12%. Later, it rose to 166.67 yuan/ton on September 24, up 8.70%. The price at the end of the month fell 43.27% year-on-year.

On September 29, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 43.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 68.19% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 143.94% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Upstream support improved and downstream procurement weakened

Domestic hydrochloric acid market in September

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell with each other this month, and the downstream demand was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market has risen sharply, giving better support to hydrochloric acid. The price of liquid chlorine in Dongming Petrochemical increased from 200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 450 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 250 yuan/ton. The downstream ammonium chloride market declined slightly. The market price of ammonium chloride fell from 1145.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1012.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 11.57%, 9.19% YoY compared with the same period last year. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market declined slightly. The market price fell from 2095.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2043.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.45%, 8.77% higher than the same period last year. Downstream market declined slightly, and downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid weakened.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of October, the market of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate slightly. Although the upstream liquid chlorine market rose sharply and the cost support was good, the downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride market prices fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weak. The analysts of the business association believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3400 yuan/ton on September 1, and 3150 yuan/ton on September 28. The market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 7.35% this month.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of 64% diammonium phosphate on September 1 was 4350 yuan/ton, and on September 28, the average price of 64% diammonium phosphate on September 28 was 4050 yuan/ton. The market price of diammonium phosphate fell by 6.9% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The overall trend of monoammonium phosphate price fell this month, and the market rose slightly at the end of the month. In the first ten days of September, the demand for monoammonium phosphate was poor, and the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and the price of monoammonium phosphate fell. In the middle of September, the monoammonium started to operate in a small amplitude of vibration and consolidation until the end of the month. As the price of raw sulfur continues to rise, the cost support is good. At the end of the month, the delivery direction of monoammonium is good, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, and the price of monoammonium rises slightly. As of September 28, the ex factory quotation of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei was 2800-2950 yuan/ton, that in Anhui was about 3050 yuan/ton, and that in Sichuan was 2900-3600 yuan/ton. The actual transaction was negotiable.

The overall price trend of diammonium phosphate fell this month, and the market rose slightly at the end of the month. In the first half of September, the downstream demand of diammonium chloride was insufficient, and the price was lowered one after another for the purpose of digesting inventory. The market was weak. In the second half of September, diammonium chloride was reorganized and operated in a volatile manner, with good market trading and investment. Downstream purchases were made on demand, new orders increased, and prices fluctuated in a narrow range. As of September 28, 64% of diammonium chloride in Hubei had quoted 3350-3500 yuan/ton, 64% of diammonium chloride in Guizhou had quoted about 3800 yuan/ton, and 64% of diammonium chloride in Yunnan had quoted 3800-4200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

Phosphorus ore as raw material. In September, the overall performance of the domestic phosphorus ore market was mainly stable. At the beginning of September, the overall market of domestic medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore was slightly down, and the price of some mining enterprises was slightly down by 10-20 yuan/ton. The terminal demand is average, which affects the mentality of the industry, and the overall market atmosphere is weaker than that at the end of August. In the middle and late September, the domestic phosphorus ore market was generally stable and consolidated. The supply in the phosphate rock yard is still tight, with less spot circulation. Some mining enterprises mainly implement early orders, and supply more pre orders. Therefore, the supply side continues to give some support to the phosphate rock market. As of September 28, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China is around 1064 yuan/ton.

Raw sulfur. Sulfur prices in East China rose sharply this month. On the downstream side, the sulphuric acid market was sorted up, and the factory actively prepared goods before the festival, and the price was raised. The ammonium phosphate market is operating steadily, the downstream market is improving, the demand for sulfur procurement is increasing, the port market is operating strongly, and the carrier supports the market operation to boost the domestic sulfur market. The sulfur refinery in Shandong Province prepares goods downstream before the festival, and the enterprise’s shipment is smooth, and the quotation is raised. As of September 28, the sulfur price of refinery enterprises in Shandong Province has been raised. The mainstream price of solid sulfur is about 1300-1500 yuan/ton, and the range has been increased by 30 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 1350-1450 yuan/ton, and the maximum price is increased by 30 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts from the business community believe that the current trend of ammonium phosphate market is consolidating. The trend of raw sulfur is good, the cost support is strong, and the manufacturer sells at a high price. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and the phosphate fertilizer market is steadily promoted in autumn. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will be stable in the short term, mainly with small fluctuations.

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises as of September 27 was 481666.66 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of September 1, 1.40% higher than that of August 27, 1.76% higher than that of the same period in three months, and 189.58% higher than that of the same period last year.

In September, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market ran at a high level. In the first half of the month, the upstream lithium carbonate price rose, and the supply side increased compared with the previous period. However, the manufacturer mainly made up long orders, and the spot supply was tight. The downstream inquiry procurement was active. With the rise of lithium carbonate and the support of supply and demand, the focus of lithium hydroxide market negotiations was high. In the second half of the month, the support from upstream lithium carbonate is still strong. Large factories give priority to the delivery of long-term orders. Downstream stock procurement has increased, and the demand side has increased. The lithium hydroxide market atmosphere is positive under multiple supports.

On September 26, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate in the upstream business community was 498000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.11% compared with September 1 (483000.00 yuan/ton). On September 26, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in the business community was 514000.00 yuan/ton, up 3.01% compared with September 1 (499000.00 yuan/ton).

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business community believe that the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream is high, the support for lithium hydroxide still exists, and the supply side support is fair. The demand for just needed goods in the downstream is increasing. It is expected that the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market will be strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

At the beginning of the week, the on-site resources of the market were still tight, the port inventory fell to 14000 tons, some factories continued to limit shipments, the on-site spot resources were further tight, the holders were reluctant to sell obviously, the terminal just needed to follow up with inquiries, and the pre holiday replenishment was nearing the end.

The offer of phenol in various markets nationwide is as follows:

Region, quotation, daily rise and fall

East China., 10850., 150

Shandong, 10980., 50

Around Yanshan, 10900., 50

South China, 10900., 100

The domestic aggregate MDI market has not changed much, and the narrow range is higher. There are few quotations from traders, mainly watching the market dynamics. The quotations of major manufacturers have been raised, the supply has been reduced, and the market has risen significantly at the beginning of the week. However, the downstream demand is slightly flat and the purchase volume is average. Some traders even have a holiday in advance, which shows that the intention of downstream goods preparation is not strong before the festival.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from September 16 to 23, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose from 16100 yuan/ton to 16420 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.99%, a month on month increase of 3.53%, and a year-on-year decrease of 21.81%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of September 23:

Region, Wanhua Goods, Shanghai Goods

In East China, 16000-16200 yuan/ton, 15700-15800 yuan/ton

In North China, around 16000-16200 yuan/ton, 15700-15800 yuan/ton

In South China, 16000-16200 yuan/ton, 15700-15800 yuan/ton

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI traders as of September 23:

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene monitored by the business community rose by a narrow margin, 7817 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 7944 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 1.63%.

Aniline: The business community monitored that the price of domestic aniline market continued to rise strongly. The price at the beginning of the week was 11750 yuan/ton, and the price at the weekend was 12142 yuan/ton, up 3.34% in the cycle.

At present, the supply is good, while the demand is bad, and the supply and demand game. The business community’s MDI analysts predict that the domestic MDI market is mainly in shock.

Since late August, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride with o-phthalic acid method has risen significantly. Up to now, the price of phthalic anhydride with o-phthalic acid method has been quoted at 10300 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 27.16%. The sharp increase in price is mainly due to the combined impact of tight supply and cost support.

Supply side: shortage of goods due to equipment maintenance

Recently, the supply of goods in the phthalic anhydride plant is tight. Some domestic devices have been overhauled. The 120000 ton phthalic anhydride plant in Tongling, Anhui Province has been shut down for overhaul for about a month, and the 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant in Xinyang Group has been shut down. It is estimated that the start-up and restart will be carried out after the National Day holiday. Affected by the overhaul of the devices, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate will decline to below 50%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is tight, and the price of phthalic anhydride in the plant will rise sharply, The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is 10200-10400 yuan/ton, and the market price of phthalic anhydride in North China is 10100-10300 yuan/ton.

Cost end: the price of raw ortho benzene has risen significantly

The price of ortho benzene rose sharply in late August. As of September 22, the price of ortho benzene was 9000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 12.5%. According to the manufacturer’s response, the supply of raw materials ortho benzene is tight in the near future, ortho benzene manufacturers are not enough to start construction, the factory has been shut down for maintenance, and phthalic anhydride manufacturers are hard to find supplies. The 160000 t/a ortho benzene unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. began to reduce the load gradually at the end of August, and the maintenance is expected to last for 3 months; Fuhaichuang 240000 t/a o-benzene plant has been shut down since the end of June; The 40000 t/a phthalic acid plant of Luoyang Petrochemical stopped production. In addition, the import volume of phthalic acid is not large, and the inventory of main ports has dropped to 8000 tons. The supply of phthalic acid is tight, which restricts the production of phthalic anhydride manufacturers. In addition, the price of phthalic acid has risen significantly. Supported by the favorable cost factors, the phthalic anhydride market has risen significantly.

Demand side: plasticizer market improved, DOP price rose sharply

The downstream DOP market price of phthalic anhydride is rising. At present, the domestic DOP price is 10280 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 13.59%. The domestic DOP enterprises have started to work, and the demand for phthalic anhydride has increased. The mainstream DOP price is 10200-10400 yuan/ton. The rising downstream market is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market, and the price of phthalic anhydride has risen significantly.

Looking at the future market: Recently, the port’s ortho xylene inventory is still in storage, domestic ortho xylene manufacturers have more maintenance, the short-term supply of ortho xylene continues to be tight, the downstream plasticizer industry has improved, and the actual demand has increased compared with before. In addition, the supply of phthalic anhydride is tight, so there are still positive factors, and the market price of phthalic anhydride may still rise in the future.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (September 21): 2541 yuan/ton

On September 21, the comprehensive price of domestic urea fell slightly, 27 yuan/ton lower than that on September 20, with a drop of 1.05%, and 0.97% higher than that of the same period last year. The upstream anthracite price rose slightly, with good cost support. Agricultural demand is small, and industrial demand is gradually expanding. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is increasing, and the demand for urea is slightly increasing. The price of melamine rose slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. In terms of supply, the daily urea production decreased slightly due to the short shutdown of units in some regions. As the National Day approaches, manufacturers cut prices to attract orders.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price will fall slightly, with an average market price of about 2520 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price index of rare earth has risen recently, and the market of the domestic rare earth industry has improved. On September 19, the rare earth index was 605 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 39.92% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 123.25% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the price trend of the domestic light rare earth market has warmed up, and the market has risen significantly. The prices of domestic metal neodymium, metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all risen in different ways. On the 20th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium rose by 55000 yuan/ton to 795000 yuan/ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 50000 yuan/ton to 665000 yuan/ton, and the price of neodymium oxide rose by 55000 yuan/ton to 725000 yuan/ton, The price of neodymium metal rose by 30000 yuan/ton to 865000 yuan/ton, the price of praseodymium metal rose by 20000 yuan/ton to 845000 yuan/ton, and the price of praseodymium oxide rose by 65000 yuan/ton to 725000 yuan/ton. Recently, the price of domestic light rare earth market has risen significantly.

The price trend of the domestic rare earth market has risen. Recently, the downstream magnetic material factories have started to replenish their warehouses before the National Day holiday. In addition, the rare earth industry has gradually entered the peak season, and some downstream businesses are stocking up. The demand has increased, and the rare earth market has risen. Due to the impact on the production of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some epidemic areas, the supply side was tight, and the market price trend rose. Recently, the sales of downstream new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles have increased month on month, the demand for spot purchases has risen, and the market price has risen. Downstream demand improved, replenishment increased, traders offered actively, wait-and-see sentiment remained on the market, and the light rare earth market rose.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has improved. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.395 million and 2.383 million respectively in August 2022, with year-on-year growth of 38.3% and 32.1%, both higher than last month. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in August were 691000 and 666000, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2 times and 1 time, and the monthly production and sales reached a new record high. The production and sales of automobiles have increased significantly. Recently, the demand in the new energy field is still supported. The price of the domestic light rare earth market has been supported to a certain extent, and the price trend has risen.

The heavy rare earth market did not increase much. On the 20th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.195 million yuan/ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.175 million yuan/ton, and the price of dysprosium metal was 2.865 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earth rose slightly. The production enterprises began to work gradually, and the rare earth market atmosphere improved slightly. In addition, the export of Myanmar was limited. The global supply of rare earth was relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price of heavy rare earth on the market has risen.

In addition, the first batch of rare earth total amount control indicators in 2022 met expectations, and the industry pattern continued to optimize. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the total control index for the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2022. In 2022, the total control indicators of the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 109200 tons and 104800 tons respectively. The total control indicators of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in the first two batches in 2022 are 210000 tons and 202000 tons respectively, up sharply year on year. However, the demand gap for rare earth still exists, and the situation of oversupply has not improved.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths have achieved sustainable development. Due to repeated epidemics in some regions, downstream procurement is limited. However, the orders of magnetic material enterprises have increased recently, and some enterprises have gradually started replenishment. In addition, with the start of rare earth peak season, business community analyst Chen Ling expects the rare earth market to rise.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 19, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products this week was 16400.00 yuan/ton, which had no significant change compared with the price of the same period last week. The price of this week was narrow and strong, which fell compared with the price of the same period last week. The range of price fluctuations was not large. The range of quotations from mainstream manufacturers remained about 16400 yuan/ton. The overall PMMA market price remained stable, and the focus of negotiations was stable, The price range is not large this week, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced.

This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16400.00 yuan/ton. The overall market was stable, and the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained around 16500 yuan/ton. The merchants were active in shipping and taking orders to yield profits. Compared with last week’s price, PMMA price was stable, the overall supply and demand were balanced, and the purchase was just needed. At present, the focus of negotiations was stable, and the supply side was normal

Rubber and plastic index: On September 18, the rubber and plastic index was 707, unchanged from yesterday, 33.30% lower than the highest point 1060 (March 14, 2012) in the cycle, and 33.90% higher than the lowest point 528 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the PMMA analysts of the business community, the PMMA price is expected to operate stably in the short term, and the PMMA market will maintain stable operation in the short term. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity.).

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of PVC calcium carbide SG5 was lowered this week. Last Friday, the average price of domestic PVC was 6504.29 yuan/ton. This Friday, the average price was 6471.43 yuan/ton, and the price decreased 0.51% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic spot market price of PVC rose first and then fell this week. At present, the spot market is in a general situation, the downstream inquiry is fair, the follow-up of actual orders is insufficient, the market trading atmosphere is cautious, and the downstream enthusiasm for taking goods is not high. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC5 carbide materials is mostly around 6080-6650 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, on September 15, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 85.10 dollars/barrel, down 3.38 dollars or 3.8%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 90.84 dollars/barrel, down 3.26 dollars or 3.5%. WTI crude oil fell nearly 4%, hitting a one week low. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve may significantly increase interest rates, making the dollar stronger again, depressing oil price estimates. In addition, the expectation of global economic recession continues to depress oil prices.

In terms of calcium carbide, the factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3700 yuan/ton on Friday to 3616.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decline of 2.25%. The upstream carbon price was adjusted at a low level, and the cost support was average. The downstream PVC market was adjusted at a low level, and the demand for calcium carbide was average.

3、 Future market forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that the spot price of PVC rose first and then fell this week. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is general, and the market trading is light. The decline of futures affects the confidence of the spot market, and the downstream is cautious in taking goods. The upstream carbide price fell and the cost support was insufficient. It is expected that the PVC market price will be stabilized temporarily in the short term. Pay close attention to the changes in the message.