1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market price of cryolite fell slightly this week, with the average market price in Henan at the beginning of the week at 5966.67 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend at 5900.00 yuan / ton, down 1.12% in the week, down 6.35% compared with the same period last year..

2、 Market analysis

Product: the price trend of cryolite in this week is weak. The ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is about 6500-6950 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 4800-6400 yuan / ton, 200 yuan / ton lower than last week. At present, the cryolite enterprises in Henan Province have sufficient inventory, fair transaction, and stable quotation. Affected by the environmental protection policy, the upstream output has been reduced, and the raw materials are in short supply. The cryolite market has been reorganized and operated. Before the year, the inventory of the enterprises was fair, and they were sold on a single basis.

Industry chain: the price trend of fluorite in the upstream of cryolite is stable this week, and the average price in the domestic market at the weekend is 2894.44 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week. In the near future, the supply of fluorite in China has been reduced, and the price has not changed much. The price of fluorite in the market is generally the same. As the Spring Festival is approaching, manufacturers and the downstream are going to have holidays gradually, and the price trend of fluorite in the market is stable. In the downstream aluminum industry, the aluminum price this week shows a “V” trend. The average market price at the weekend is 14566.67 yuan / ton, and at the beginning of the week is 14533.33 yuan / ton. The price rose 0.23% in the week. The overall price has little change. With the Spring Festival approaching, some small terminals in China are going into the phase of shutdown and holiday, and it is expected that the market will be in shock operation in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the cryolite product analyst of the business association, at present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the cryolite market has not improved, and the downstream purchase tends to be low. However, due to the influence of upstream raw materials, the enterprise’s quotation will not be greatly adjusted. Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is expected that the cryolite market will be stable in the later period, with specific attention to market demand.

1、 Price trend

Price increase of regions in early January and January 20

Zhejiang 2600-2700 yuan / ton 2800-2900 yuan / ton 7.69%

Jiangsu 2400-2500 yuan / ton 2650-2700 yuan / ton 10.42%

Shandong 2400-2500 yuan / ton 2700-2800 yuan / ton 12.5%

Henan 2300-2350 yuan / ton 2400-2450 yuan / ton 4.35%

Hebei 2500 yuan / ton 2700-2800 yuan / ton 10%

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, after the new year, the domestic acetic acid market rose sharply, with an average price of 2483 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2733 yuan / ton as of January 20. The overall increase was 10.07%.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: after entering the new year, domestic acetic acid enterprises have started smoothly as a whole. Although some enterprises have been temporarily overhauled, there is no obvious gap in the market as a whole, and the inventory in the industry is always low, and the supply of goods in the market is tight. The downstream market is affected by factors such as stock up before the festival, and the demand side supports the price of acetic acid well. In addition, the upstream methanol price remains high, which supports the price of acetic acid well in both directions Ge continued to rise, and the firm’s intention to hold up the price was good.

Industry chain: in the upstream, methanol prices are high and firm, and prices are adjusted according to their own supply and demand and the downstream stocking rhythm. At present, 2262 yuan / ton is around; domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and acetic anhydride industries are relatively light, enterprises are gradually entering the holiday, the industry is under construction, and the demand for acetic acid is gradually weak; PTA spot market negotiation atmosphere is falling, and the trading and investment atmosphere is becoming colder , terminal demand has declined, at present, it is about 4877 yuan / ton.

International: at present, the price of acetic acid in the international acetic acid market is affected by the high price of raw materials methanol, and the price of acetic acid is firm, among which the price of acetic acid in North America is about 670 US dollars / ton; the price of acetic acid in Asia is about 330-395 US dollars / ton; the price of acetic acid in Europe is about 650 euros / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of business agency, although Tianjin Bohai Chemical Plant is shut down and Henan Longyu is in low negative operation at present, the market supply is still relatively stable. Near the end of the year, the market substantive negotiation has basically ended. With the completion of the downstream market parking load reduction and stock up, the demand side support is insufficient, so the acetic acid market performance is expected to be relatively cold in a short time.

1、 Price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite kept stable and moving forward this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1693.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1693.33 yuan / ton, up or down by 0.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the annual pass is coming, and the domestic market trade of sodium pyrosulfite is gradually fading. This week, the market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1600-1850 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are around 1700 yuan / ton. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily excluded from the scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

Industry chain: this week, the price of soda ash and sulfur is generally stable, the market is light at the end of the year, and the price of upstream and downstream products of sodium metabisulfite is generally stable.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of the business club believe that the Spring Festival holiday is coming and the manufacturers are about to enter the stage of shutdown. It is expected that the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to move forward steadily around the Spring Festival.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on January 1 was 10966 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on January 16 was 11233 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 2.43%. Up to now, the caprolactam commodity index on January 17 is 56.50, up 0.17 points from yesterday, down 43.50% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and up 5.65% from the lowest point of 53.48 on December 5, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10900 yuan / ton, cash is delivered, the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 12000 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 11650 yuan / ton. The 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11650 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11600 yuan / ton, contract order, 280000 tons / year normal operation of the device. Hubei sanning caprolactam liquid offers 11400 / T. The plant capacity of the manufacturer is 140000 tons / year.

Industrial chain: domestic pure benzene Market: East China pure benzene market is weak, negotiation intention refers to 5850-5900 yuan / ton, far month goods negotiation is 5750-5850 yuan / ton, the sharp decline of the external market has an impact on the mentality, the downstream response is insufficient in high price, and the market wait-and-see is increasing. At present, domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made it clear that there are not many offers, and the delivery level of enterprises is around 7400-7450 yuan / ton. Most of them supply supporting downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. The South China cyclohexanone market continued to be sorted out, and the negotiation was delivered with reference to 7900-7950 yuan / ton. The main trading intention was near the low-end. The demand of solvent market was general, the enthusiasm for goods preparation was limited, and the buyer purchased on demand. The market of cyclohexanone in East China has been sorted out at a high level, with the reference of 7800-7900 yuan / ton for on-site negotiation. The upstream and downstream product market has been firmly supported. The lack of profit limits the market’s further recovery, and the short-term atmosphere is weak.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are eight commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on January 16, 2020, among which the top three commodities are dichloromethane (2.42%), acetic acid (1.28%) and liquid ammonia (1.11%). There are 7 kinds of commodities with a month on month decline, among which crude benzene (- 1.50%), mixed xylene (- 1.25%) and propane (- 1.04%) are the top three products. The average increase and decrease of this day is 0.01%.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that recently caprolactam began to rise for several days, and the current market is stable. Due to the high price of raw materials, the loss of caprolactam in the early stage is more, the enterprise intends to increase the price, and the downstream demand is stable. The price of caprolactam is expected to rise steadily in the later period.

1、 Price trend

The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province is 1053.33 yuan / ton in recent days, according to the data in the commodity list of business association. The current price is down 10.35% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the market price of formaldehyde in China has been consolidated. As of the 16th, the main factory quotation of Hebei is about 980 yuan / ton, that of South China is about 1180 yuan / ton, that of Shandong is about 1000 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu is about 1180 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. Hebei Kaiyue formaldehyde plant of 400000 tons / year was shut down for maintenance. Formaldehyde manufacturers are affected by environmental protection regulations. Formaldehyde market has a general supply and stable price.

Industry chain: the methanol market in the mainland is generally higher this week. Under the background of terminal stock before the festival and low factory inventory in the main production area, the trading atmosphere of this week is obviously better. In addition, due to the snow weather, the high-speed road is closed, and the regional trend is prominent, but the overall trend is strong. Support formaldehyde. However, downstream markets shut down one after another, the demand shrank, the trading atmosphere of formaldehyde market was cold, and the formaldehyde market was consolidated.

3、 Future forecast

Recently, methanol in the upper reaches continues to rise, but the operation rate in the lower reaches is generally affected by environmental protection. The favorable cost has limited impact on the market, and formaldehyde manufacturers are under great pressure to ship. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts in the chemical branch of business society expect that the domestic formaldehyde price or low price consolidation will be the main trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on January 1, the average price of mainstream manufacturers was 17333.33 yuan / ton, and on January 15, the average price was 18166.67 yuan / ton, up 4.87% in half a month. On January 14, the R22 commodity index was 109.00, up 2 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 30.70% from 83.40, the lowest point on October 14, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R22 price in refrigerant market rose in January. At present, the market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the end of raw materials is relatively stable, and some regions form support for refrigerant R22 according to their own adjustment; the terminal air conditioning industry maintains rigid demand, the delivery and investment is flat, and the business confidence is insufficient. At present, the supply of refrigerant R22 in the market is limited, which is good for the price of refrigerant R22. As of January 15, the average price of refrigerant R22 is around 18166.67 yuan / ton, and the quotation is mainly about 17500 yuan / ton – 18500 yuan / ton, with refrigerant R22 at a high level.

Industry chain: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid of upstream products this month is temporarily stable. In the near future, the situation of on-site manufacturers is general, and on-site spot supply is normal. At present, domestic trichloromethane of upstream products is in the traditional off-season, and the inventory of enterprises is low, but it still cannot prevent the weak price of trichloromethane. The terminal air conditioner manufacturer starts at a low level, with general demand.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on January 14, 2020, among which the top three commodities are acetone (4.08%), R22 (1.87%) and polyformaldehyde (1.86%). There are 14 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top three products are propane (- 2.50%), ammonium chloride (- 1.56%) and mixed xylene (- 1.22%). The average rise and fall of this day is 0.01%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business club, at present, the supply of refrigerant R22 is still tight, and the enterprise’s orders are limited. Near the end of the year, the logistics is shut down one after another, and the factory is off in advance. It is expected that the trend of refrigerant R22 will be consolidated in the short term.

On January 14, the fluorite commodity index was 101.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.34% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 106.38% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is stable temporarily. As of the 14th day, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2894.44 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic fluorite device has been started normally, the mine and flotation device in the field have been started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has increased slightly in recent years. For the purchase on demand in fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite field are generally sold, and the price trend of fluorite market is stable temporarily. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is normal, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not getting better, which leads to the market price maintaining volatility. As of the 14th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton. The price trend of fluorite was stable temporarily.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the downstream of fluorite has been fluctuating. As of the 14th day, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China was 10240 yuan / ton. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite is normal, and the price of fluorite remains low. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal is temporarily stable. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The price trend of R22 in the domestic refrigerant market is volatile. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production units is still not high, and the supply capacity of the market’s source of goods has declined. The downstream air-conditioning manufacturer has maintained, but the demand has not changed much, but the supply is tight. The price of large domestic enterprises is mainstream Up to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market is temporarily stable, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains at a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price remains volatile, and the downstream market changes little. In addition, the recent price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market, the fluorite market may be supported by favorable conditions.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry has not changed much, and the supply of fluorite in the north is a little tight. In addition, the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable in the near future. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may be stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of January 13, the latest price of cyclohexanone in China was 7383 yuan / ton, up 1.61% month on month, and down 14.45% year on year. The domestic market of cyclohexanone is mainly sorted out.

2、 Market analysis

Products: at present, domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made it clear that there are not many offers. The shipping level of enterprises is around 7400-7450 yuan / ton. Most of them supply supporting downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. The market of cyclohexanone in Southern China continues to be sorted out, and the negotiation refers to the delivery of 7900-7950 yuan / ton. The main trading intention is near the low end, the demand of solvent market is general, the enthusiasm of goods preparation is limited, and the buyer purchases according to the demand. The market of cyclohexanone in East China has been sorted out at a high level, with the reference of 7800-7900 yuan / ton for on-site negotiation. The upstream and downstream product market has been firmly supported. The lack of profit limits the market’s further recovery, and the short-term atmosphere is weak.

Industrial chain: pure benzene: Asian pure benzene Market: in February, the seller intends to buy goods at 710-725 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: East China’s pure benzene market is weak. The negotiation intention refers to 5850-5900 yuan / ton, and the negotiation of goods in the far month is 5750-5850 yuan / ton. The sharp decline of the external market has an impact on the mentality. The downstream response to the high price is insufficient, and the market wait-and-see is increasing.

Caprolactam: the caprolactam liquid market is relatively strong, and the main real single negotiated price in East China market is 11300-11400 yuan / ton (delivered by acceptance within 6 months), up 100 yuan / ton. Sinopec’s price hike has boosted the market atmosphere. Caprolactam companies have made firm offers, and the focus of market negotiations has increased slightly. Downstream buyers are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and the market trading atmosphere is light.

3、 Future forecast

On the positive side, the enterprise price has certain support; the downstream market remains firm. On the negative side, the demand for solvent is insufficient; the profit of industrial chain is insufficient. Downstream firm support for the market, the pure benzene trend is weaker, business community cyclohexanone analysts expect, short-term domestic cyclohexanone market firm consolidation.

1、 Price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite fell again this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1760.00 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1693.33 yuan / ton, down 3.79% overall.

2、 Market analysis

Product: after new year’s day, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market is still in a downturn as a whole. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is 1600-1850 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are concentrated around 1700 yuan / ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, most enterprises focus on completing orders from old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. The market transaction atmosphere is general, and the downstream procurement is more cautious, most of which are used with purchase. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily excluded from the scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

Industrial chain: after new year’s day, the price of soda ash in the upper reaches continued to fall by 1.06%. The bottom of sulfur price moved forward steadily, the cost of raw materials continued to be weak, and under the pressure of cost, the market price of sodium metabisulfite recovered.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the cost of raw materials continues to be weak, downstream procurement continues to be cautious, enterprise quotations continue to decline, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite is difficult to touch the bottom and recover in the short term.

In 2019, China’s rubber and plastic industry continued to be in a downturn, although occasionally improving, but the overall rough, weak unchanged.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are two kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in 2019, one of which is more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top two commodities are natural rubber (13.90%) and PVC (4.94%). There are 14 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 12 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 75% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are PC (- 38.74%), PA66 (- 36.16%) and PA6 (- 22.76%), respectively. The average annual increase and decrease is – 13.77%.

 
Rubber industry

Natural rubber: in 2019, “disaster prone”, the first half of the year experienced the drought that has not been encountered for many years, experienced the strict inspection of “mixed rubber” by the customs, also encountered the export reduction of three countries in Southeast Asia and other rubber boosting measures, the rubber price first rose, then fell and vibrated; in the second half of the year, the traditional consumption peak season of “golden nine silver ten” boosted the rubber price, which was caused by the rainstorm and fungal disease in Southeast Asia Due to the impact of volume contraction, the natural rubber market has improved to a certain extent; in November, China’s domestic regions stopped cutting to stimulate prices to stop falling and rising, and the prices rose strongly. After rising again in December, the prices fell back to shock, with a year-round price increase of about 12%.

Synthetic rubber: the overall range of domestic general synthetic rubber market fluctuates in 2019, stronger in the second half than in the first half. From January to July, the raw material butadiene fell all the way, and the raw material cost was greatly reduced. Under the promotion of profit, the operating rate of general synthetic rubber production enterprises was high, the market supply was sufficient, and the downstream procurement continued to be weak, which depressed the price. From the beginning of August to the end of December, the price of domestic general purpose synthetic rubber fluctuated and rose, the price of crude oil and raw material butadiene rose and fell, and the operating rate of tire factory in the second half of the year was relatively good, the demand for rubber was relatively strong, which to some extent supported the price of rubber.

Plastics industry

2019 is a rough year for the plastic market. In addition to the slight increase in PVC, plastic products are mainly green. No matter how volatile the surrounding environment is, the market is always in a circuitous downward trend. The reason is the further deepening of the imbalance between supply and demand. The competition in the industry is becoming increasingly fierce, and the profits are being squeezed. The only way for the industry to promote sales is to let the profits. In addition, the strength of environmental supervision has not been reduced. Since the “blue sky defense war” was put forward in 2017, it has been playing an important role in the market. The strength of environmental protection has been increasing year by year, which has hindered the production of terminal enterprises. All the major varieties of the plastic market are in good condition in September, but the rising trend is fleeting, and it can’t extricate itself from the mire again in October. At present, it is difficult to reverse the tight supply and demand pattern in 2020. In addition to the large fluctuations that may occur in the peak maintenance season and the downstream traditional procurement season, the overall trend is still weak.

Key gains and losses: natural rubber, polybutadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber, PC, PA66, PA6

Natural rubber (+ 13.90%): compared with more than 40000 tons of natural rubber, the price of natural rubber has fallen by three quarters, and it has been fluctuating for half a year around 2000 yuan / ton in the low price range of 10000 yuan / ton to 12200 yuan / ton. In 2019, the price of natural rubber rose three times as a whole: 12070 yuan / ton at the end of March 4 was the first high price, 12020 yuan / ton at the end of June 11 was the second high price, 12290 yuan / ton at the end of December 6 was the third and the highest price of the year so far; two downturns: 10700 yuan / ton at the end of April and the beginning of May was the first low price, 10260 yuan / ton at the end of July and the beginning of August was the lowest price of the year 。 Throughout 2019, the average market price of natural rubber whole milk (Baodao) in East China monitored by the business association increased by 14.55% in the whole year. In the natural rubber market in 2020, based on the current situation of low price depression for many years, the possibility of price plunge is very small, and the short-term holiday effect is obvious, focusing on the sudden price changes caused by news stimulus and policy impact.

Polybutadiene rubber (- 3.63%): in 2019, polybutadiene rubber showed a shock trend. Taking August as the watershed, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell in a narrow range before August; after August, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose first and then fell rapidly. The annual price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber reached a high of 12900 yuan / ton on September 27 and a low of 10450 yuan / ton on July 18, up or down – 3.63% for the whole year.

Styrene butadiene rubber (- 5.17%): in 2019, the styrene butadiene rubber market fell first and then rose. In the first seven months, the price of domestic SBR declined all the way, from 12000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 10112 yuan / ton at the lowest point of the year in July; from the beginning of August to the end of December, the price of domestic SBR rose in shock, from 10400 yuan / ton at the beginning of August to around 11700 yuan / ton at the end of the year. The overall year-end was 5.17% lower than the beginning of the year.

PC (- 38.74%): the price of PC in 2019 shows a downward trend. As of December 30, the average price of domestic PC is 12966.67 yuan / ton, 38.74% lower than that of the beginning of the year. The contradiction between supply and demand is the most important factor in the decline of price. Due to the long-term decline of the market, limited profit space, and the historical low position of offer, merchants continue to yield profits for shipment, and there is no pressure on inventory, PC market still has room to rise in 2020.

PA66 (- 36.16%): the market of PA66 in 2019 is different from that in 2018. The weak spot price of PA66 fell in 2019, and the imbalance between supply and demand is the main color of domestic PA66 market in 2019. As of December 30, the average price of PA66 mainstream offers was about 23087 yuan / ton, a 36.16% drop compared with the beginning of the year.

PA6 (- 22.76%): in 2019, the overall ABS market fell, and the spot price in the domestic market shrank to some extent. PA6 fell by 22.76% in the whole year due to the unsatisfactory trend of upstream caprolactam, insufficient momentum of PA6′s own rise, and mismatch between downstream demand growth and capacity growth.