1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on January 1 was 10966 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on January 16 was 11233 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 2.43%. Up to now, the caprolactam commodity index on January 17 is 56.50, up 0.17 points from yesterday, down 43.50% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and up 5.65% from the lowest point of 53.48 on December 5, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10900 yuan / ton, cash is delivered, the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 12000 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 11650 yuan / ton. The 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11650 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11600 yuan / ton, contract order, 280000 tons / year normal operation of the device. Hubei sanning caprolactam liquid offers 11400 / T. The plant capacity of the manufacturer is 140000 tons / year.

Industrial chain: domestic pure benzene Market: East China pure benzene market is weak, negotiation intention refers to 5850-5900 yuan / ton, far month goods negotiation is 5750-5850 yuan / ton, the sharp decline of the external market has an impact on the mentality, the downstream response is insufficient in high price, and the market wait-and-see is increasing. At present, domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made it clear that there are not many offers, and the delivery level of enterprises is around 7400-7450 yuan / ton. Most of them supply supporting downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. The South China cyclohexanone market continued to be sorted out, and the negotiation was delivered with reference to 7900-7950 yuan / ton. The main trading intention was near the low-end. The demand of solvent market was general, the enthusiasm for goods preparation was limited, and the buyer purchased on demand. The market of cyclohexanone in East China has been sorted out at a high level, with the reference of 7800-7900 yuan / ton for on-site negotiation. The upstream and downstream product market has been firmly supported. The lack of profit limits the market’s further recovery, and the short-term atmosphere is weak.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are eight commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on January 16, 2020, among which the top three commodities are dichloromethane (2.42%), acetic acid (1.28%) and liquid ammonia (1.11%). There are 7 kinds of commodities with a month on month decline, among which crude benzene (- 1.50%), mixed xylene (- 1.25%) and propane (- 1.04%) are the top three products. The average increase and decrease of this day is 0.01%.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that recently caprolactam began to rise for several days, and the current market is stable. Due to the high price of raw materials, the loss of caprolactam in the early stage is more, the enterprise intends to increase the price, and the downstream demand is stable. The price of caprolactam is expected to rise steadily in the later period.