According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market in May was “upside down”, rising first and then falling. From May 1st to 30th, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11670 yuan/ton to 11442 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.95% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 8.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 48.73%.

The main reason for the fluctuation of BDO price this time is in the supply side, with the domestic BDO operating rate at around 67%. And in mid to late May and early June, the maintenance/replacement of catalysts for the device involved a production capacity of 460000 tons (accounting for 15.8% of the total production capacity). However, the main downstream end product, spandex, has accumulated inventory and the market has declined. Other downstream end products have also shown weakness, increasing supply and demand pressure.

Cost side, raw material calcium carbide: In May, the domestic calcium carbide market fluctuated narrowly, with a monthly increase of 5.77%. The high price consolidation of raw material blue charcoal has led to good cost support, insufficient downstream demand, and short-term fluctuations in the calcium carbide market. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market fluctuated at a low level in May, with a decrease of 10.25% during the month. The market for methanol raw material coal is sluggish, and the overall market circulation is large. The supply-demand contradiction is still enveloping the methanol market. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has been operating at low levels, and there is currently no significant improvement in the cost of BDO.

On the demand side, the downstream NMP industry is following the downward trend of the raw material market, and the load of TPU and PU slurry in the polyurethane field is around 40-50%. The enthusiasm for starting construction in the PBAT industry is not high, which suppresses the enthusiasm for raw material procurement. The overall demand follow-up volume downstream of the terminal is limited. Short term BDO demand side biased bearish impact.

In the future, it is predicted that some maintenance devices will soon restart, leading to an increase in supply and a weakening of supply side support. At the same time, there is no expectation of improvement in downstream demand at the end, and BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market may continue to be weak.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of May 29, 2023, the domestic silicone DMC market price reference was 14360 yuan/ton, and on May 1 (silicone DMC reference was 15080 yuan/ton), the price fell 580 yuan/ton, or 4.77%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that since May (5.01-5.29), the overall domestic silicone DMC market has shown a weak decline. In early May, with the return of the Labor Day holiday, the downstream demand for organic silicon DMC market was weak, and insufficient demand affected the pace of organic silicon DMC shipments. On the 8th and 9th, the prices of organic silicon DMC in Shandong large factories were continuously adjusted downwards, with a decrease of about 500 yuan/ton. Other factories also began to follow in the footsteps of large factories, reducing the prices of organic silicon DMC by about 200 yuan/ton. As of May 15, the market price of silicone DMC in China is around 14300-14800 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

In late May, the trading atmosphere in the silicone DMC market continued to be light, the downstream demand was not well boosted, and the demand was generally supported. The overall focus of the silicone DMC market continued to decline slightly, with a decrease of 100-200 yuan/ton. As of May 29, the domestic silicone DMC market price was near 14200-14500 yuan/ton.

Price trend

This week, the domestic POM market continued to be weak, with spot prices adjusting at a low level. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 26th, the average factory price of domestic POM was 12950.00 yuan/ton, a 2.63% decrease from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market has gradually declined this week. The raw material methanol has declined significantly, and formaldehyde manufacturers are operating normally. However, downstream panel factories have weak demand, and formaldehyde shipments are under significant pressure. Inventory continues to be high, and the formaldehyde market continues to decline.

On the supply side:

The operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has rebounded, with some maintenance enterprises resuming work in the early stage, and the industry’s negative rate has rebounded to nearly 94%. The high load situation continues, and the inventory pressure of most enterprises gradually accumulates, leading to a gradual decrease in processing profits.

In terms of demand:

At present, POM terminal enterprises have weak stocking enthusiasm, low operating rates, poor consumption release, and limited impact on spot prices. Traders lack confidence and are more likely to complete task operations by reducing prices and placing orders towards the end of the month. Buyers tend to buy up rather than down, with a wait-and-see mentality. The actual orders are sporadic, and the actual orders are biased towards a single discussion.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the POM market was weak and sorted out. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has rebounded and there is ample supply. In addition, the inventory pressure in the industry continues to accumulate, and suppliers are unable to support spot goods. The demand side enterprises have a relatively low demand for replenishment, and some downstream operating rates are low, resulting in a small amount of actual transactions. How much profit is currently available on the market? It is expected that the POM market may continue to be weak in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of May 25th, the price of PET water bottles has been in a weak trend, with an average price of 7320.00 yuan/ton. This week, PET prices have been mainly in a narrow and weak range, with a slight decrease of 1.08% compared to the same period last week. The mainstream price is around 7300 yuan/ton, and the overall market negotiation center is stable.

The domestic PET price is operating in a narrow range with a weak trend. Currently, the mainstream price is around 7300 yuan/ton, and the overall market is stable with a weak trend. At present, the focus of negotiations is stable, and manufacturers are actively shipping. Downstream procurement is on demand, and logistics is smooth. Manufacturers are offering discounts and taking orders.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On May 23, the rubber and plastic index was 649 points, a decrease of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 38.77% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and a 22.92% increase from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate steadily in the short term.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell slightly this week, from 196.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 192.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a 2.04% drop. Weekend prices fell by 82.09% year-on-year. On May 21, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 29.88, which was unchanged from yesterday and set a new historical low in the cycle, a decrease of 84.11% from the highest point of 188.07 on April 13, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 783.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 786.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.43%. Over the weekend, prices fell 80.37% year-on-year, with a slight increase in upstream prices and good cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market declined slightly, and the market price fell from 10114.29 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10028.57 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.85%. Weekend prices fell by 14.50% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market declined slightly, with the market price falling from 16950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 16866.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.49%. Weekend prices fell by 18.39% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late May, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream sulfur market started to decline slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid market declined slightly, downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm for sulfuric acid weakened, and the product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business community believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, and the price of sulfuric acid market may fluctuate slightly.

Price trend

Last week, the domestic PA66 market underwent a narrow adjustment. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, the average factory price of PA66 in China on May 22nd was 20866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of+2.62% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Last week, the PA66 market underwent a narrow adjustment, and overall, spot prices of various brands have increased. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently around 66%, which has decreased compared to the previous period. The contraction of supply has formed a certain support for the spot market, and after half a month of digestion, the market supply has decreased, and the supply side support has rebounded. The pricing operation of enterprises has been adjusted up in a narrow range, resulting in average inventory pressure. In terms of upstream, the raw material of adipic acid is relatively weak, while hexamethylene diamine is stable. Due to the lack of positive maintenance in the market, prices have remained stable for two consecutive weeks. The PA66 raw material end has average support for spot goods. The demand situation is stable, and terminal enterprises need to follow up on their purchases. Buyers generally have limited acceptance of high priced goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue to consolidate its market in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, the spot price of PA66 corrected within a narrow range. The raw material market is weak, and the cost support for PA66 is average. The load of PA66 enterprise has decreased, supply has tightened, and the overall inventory position is average. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that in the short term, PA66 may be supported by suppliers and tend to be more organized and operated.

The domestic phenol market continues to decline, and according to the market analysis system of Business Society, the negotiated price of phenol in East China has dropped to 7200 yuan/ton.

Market Trends of Phenol in Major Regions of China

The factory has centrally lowered prices, with Sinopec North China lowering prices by 200 to execute 7300 yuan/ton, and Sinopec East China lowering prices by 100 to execute 7300 yuan/ton. Lihua Yiwei Yuan lowered the price by 200 yuan to execute 7300 yuan/ton.

The quotation of phenol in various markets across the country on May 19th is as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Weekly ups and downs

East China region/ 7180-7200./ -200

Shandong region/ 7300./ -100

The surrounding area of Yanshan/ 7300./ -100

South China region/ 7650./ -300

The supply side is loose, and the fluctuation in port inventory at the beginning of the week was not significant, lasting at 28000 tons. In addition, due to the impact of some domestic goods being urged to pick up goods in the middle of the week, traders actively shipped out at a discount.

The demand side has not changed much, and the small orders at the end just need to participate, and due to the factory’s downward adjustment, downstream procurement enthusiasm has decreased.

Next Wednesday, there will be a parking plan for the package, and a reduction in supply will be beneficial and stimulating for the market. However, the progress of downstream procurement is also crucial. The business community is expected to push up next week, but the increase is limited, with a focus on terminal demand.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in the first half of May, with spot prices of various brands showing mixed fluctuations. As of May 16th, the reference quotation for the PC sample enterprises of the Business Society was around 15616.67 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.21% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above figure, it can be seen that the recent market for bisphenol A has gradually declined. At the end of last month, it was affected by the increase in pure benzene and phenol at the raw material end, and the far end cost of crude oil has decreased significantly in the past half of the month. Bisphenol A has weakened its support from the cost side. The market negotiation atmosphere is average, and the mentality of the holders is not good. The focus of the offer has decreased, and it is expected that the market situation may be weak and difficult to improve.

In terms of supply: The overall operating rate of domestic PC has been adjusted and operated in the range of around 70% for half a month, and the industry has not yet shaken off its high load position in the past three years, resulting in abundant on-site supply. Last week, some devices lowered their load, with an overall decrease of 4% being relatively narrow, which resulted in poor support for spot goods.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream PC companies just need to maintain production and have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. The auction situation also fell short of expectations, with prices falling. At present, the starting position of terminal enterprises is not high, and the actual stocking operation has not improved, with light on-site trading. Traders’ mentality has weakened, and their offers are generally in line with the market.

Future Market Forecast

In the first half of May, the PC market remained weak and stable, with narrow fluctuations. The upstream bisphenol A market has fallen, weakening support for PC costs. The high load of domestic polymerization plants remains stagnant, and there is no improvement in demand side follow-up, while supply side pressure remains high. It is expected that the PC market will take some time to overcome the supply-demand contradiction and may continue to operate in a weak position.

In the first half of May, the nitrile rubber market slightly fluctuated and declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 15th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% from 15825 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a cycle high of 15950 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has decreased, the price of acrylonitrile has slightly increased, and the cost of nitrile rubber has fluctuated slightly; Downstream demand is weak, and market transactions are still relatively flat. The factory price of nitrile rubber enterprises was significantly increased in early May, and nitrile rubber merchants made a slight adjustment in their quotations. At present, the mainstream market price for Lanhua Nitrile 3305 in East China is 15400-15600 yuan/ton; Nandi Nitrile 1052 mainstream reported at 16900-17100 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Sibul nitrile 3365 is 14900-15200 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported 15100~15300 yuan/ton.

In the first half of May, the price of raw material butadiene decreased and the price of acrylonitrile increased, resulting in slight fluctuations in the cost of nitrile rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the price of butadiene was 8281 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.44% from 8851 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of May 15th, the price of acrylonitrile has increased by 1.55% from 9662 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9812 yuan/ton.

 
At present, the supply of nitrile rubber is basically stable. But there are maintenance plans for the later part of the second quarter.

Downstream rubber hose, automotive parts and other rubber product industries mainly have small inquiries and small transactions in the market.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is loose, coupled with the insignificant increase in downstream inquiries, the nitrile rubber industry chain is currently in a weak situation; In the later stage, it is expected that nitrile rubber enterprises will have maintenance plans in the second quarter, which may alleviate supply pressure to some extent. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will weaken and consolidate in the short term, and it is still necessary to pay attention to enterprise maintenance and demand trends.

Product name: Hydrochloric acid

Latest price (May 12th): 175.00 yuan/ton

On May 12, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid market fell sharply, 20 yuan/ton lower than that on May 11, down 10.26%, 41.67% year-on-year. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream market for polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened.

In the future, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid may drop slightly, with the average market price of about 170 yuan/ton.