Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in the first half of May, with spot prices of various brands showing mixed fluctuations. As of May 16th, the reference quotation for the PC sample enterprises of the Business Society was around 15616.67 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.21% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above figure, it can be seen that the recent market for bisphenol A has gradually declined. At the end of last month, it was affected by the increase in pure benzene and phenol at the raw material end, and the far end cost of crude oil has decreased significantly in the past half of the month. Bisphenol A has weakened its support from the cost side. The market negotiation atmosphere is average, and the mentality of the holders is not good. The focus of the offer has decreased, and it is expected that the market situation may be weak and difficult to improve.

In terms of supply: The overall operating rate of domestic PC has been adjusted and operated in the range of around 70% for half a month, and the industry has not yet shaken off its high load position in the past three years, resulting in abundant on-site supply. Last week, some devices lowered their load, with an overall decrease of 4% being relatively narrow, which resulted in poor support for spot goods.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream PC companies just need to maintain production and have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. The auction situation also fell short of expectations, with prices falling. At present, the starting position of terminal enterprises is not high, and the actual stocking operation has not improved, with light on-site trading. Traders’ mentality has weakened, and their offers are generally in line with the market.

Future Market Forecast

In the first half of May, the PC market remained weak and stable, with narrow fluctuations. The upstream bisphenol A market has fallen, weakening support for PC costs. The high load of domestic polymerization plants remains stagnant, and there is no improvement in demand side follow-up, while supply side pressure remains high. It is expected that the PC market will take some time to overcome the supply-demand contradiction and may continue to operate in a weak position.