1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on September 18th was 14066 yuan/ton, and on September 22nd, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13975 yuan/ton. Caprolactam prices fell by 0.65% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam rose first and then fell this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. At the beginning of the week, the market supply was tight, and the market for caprolactam was strong. As the price of raw material pure benzene continues to decline, the price of caprolactam begins to follow suit. The downstream trend is weak, and demand is decreasing.

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On September 18th, the price of pure benzene was 8717 yuan/ton, and on Friday (September 22nd), the price of pure benzene was 8650 yuan/ton, a 2.08% decrease compared to last week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was at 8400 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions have also dropped by 400 yuan/ton).

This week, the downstream PA6 market rose first and then fell. As of September 22nd, the reference average price of domestic PA6 is 14825 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam analysts believe that the caprolactam market has been operating weakly recently. The raw material pure benzene market has fallen, and cost support has weakened. Combined with poor downstream trends, demand has decreased. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will slightly decline in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the raw material market.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China on September 15th was 3100 yuan/ton. On September 21st, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3100 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate remained stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China on September 15th was 3875 yuan/ton. On September 21st, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3875 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate remained stable.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium phosphate is temporarily stable this week. The price of raw material phosphate rock has increased, the price of raw material sulfur has decreased, and the rise and fall of raw materials are mixed. At present, there are relatively few new orders in the monoammonium phosphate market, and there is still support from pending orders. The demand in Northeast China is starting to follow up. The diammonium phosphate market is operating steadily, and enterprises are executing domestic and foreign pending orders. Downstream demand has weakened, and the market trading atmosphere is not good. As of September 21st, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 3100 yuan/ton, while the factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 3100 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The market quotation for 64% ammonium chloride in Shandong region is around 3900 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the domestic sulfur market has shown a downward trend this week. As of September 21st, the reference average price of sulfur in East China is 1066.67 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall focus of the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to move upwards this week. The supply and demand of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock on the site continue to be tight, with downstream pre holiday stocking opening and overall good demand. As of September 21st, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is referenced around 930-1000 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the ammonium phosphate market has been undergoing consolidation and operation recently. The price of raw material phosphate rock is running at a high level, and under cost pressure and support from waiting for delivery, the market for phosphate ammonium is firm. The reimbursement of dealers is chaotic, and the demand side needs to be followed up. It is expected that the short-term price of ammonium phosphate will mainly maintain consolidation operation.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 20, 2023, the reference price for domestic n-propanol was 8016 yuan/ton. Compared to September 15, 2023 (reference price for n-propanol is 8050 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that as of this week (9.15-9.20), the overall market situation of n-propanol in China has shown a slight downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the trading atmosphere of n-propanol on site was average. Some suppliers in Shandong region reduced the price of n-propanol narrowly based on their own inventory and shipment situation, with a reduction range of around 50-100 yuan/ton. In the middle of the week, the news on the n-propanol market was relatively calm, and the market was mainly in consolidation operation. As of September 20th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region was around 7200-7800 yuan/ton, while higher prices were around 8100 yuan/ton. The market for n-propanol in Nanjing is relatively stable, and the market price for n-propanol is around 9000 yuan/ton. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is relatively weak, and downstream stocking and procurement are relatively cautious. New orders are mostly sold on a volume basis, while downstream pre holiday stocking rhythm is average. Business Society’s n-propanol data analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly stable and subject to small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from September 12th to 19th, the market price of butadiene in China increased from 8568 yuan/ton to 8747 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.09% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 14.89%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.83%. Driven by demand in Northeast Asia, the external price of butadiene has continued to rise, while the trend of downstream synthetic rubber remains relatively strong, bringing a significant boost to the domestic market.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: Saudi Arabia and Russia’s extended production reduction deadline has led to supply tightening expectations and continued to ferment. Coupled with the US shale oil production not meeting expectations, positive supply has overshadowed demand concerns. As of the close on September 18th, the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was at $94.43 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 or 0.5%.

In terms of naphtha, the domestic market for refining naphtha has fluctuated and risen. The rise in international crude oil has driven the domestic naphtha market, and terminal restructuring is just needed to release, with refineries actively shipping. The cost of butadiene is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the main production enterprises, Sinopec and its sales companies, have seen a double increase in butadiene prices of 100 yuan/ton to 8800 yuan/ton. Dalian Hengli’s 140000 ton/year butadiene plant is operating steadily, with normal supply for export and a stable price of 8710 yuan/ton. The 64000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit of Shenhua Ningxia Coal has been operating steadily, with a small amount of supply for export and a stable price of 8300 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, the spot market for butadiene rubber saw a slight upward trend, with the increase narrowing compared to early September. The raw material prices have risen, and styrene butadiene rubber continues to receive cost support. At the same time, downstream demand has a certain level of demand support. As of September 19th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China is 13840 yuan/ton, and the factory report of Qilu Butadiene 1502 from Sinopec North China Sales Company is 13700 yuan/ton. The demand for butadiene is influenced by favorable factors.

On September 18th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at $1005- $1015 per ton; The Chinese CFR report is between $1045 and $1055 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe rose: FOB Rotterdam closed at $695-705 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 640-650 euros/ton, up 5 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, the short-term butadiene market is mainly driven by the trend of external and downstream synthetic rubber markets. Supported by high external prices, domestic supplier price expectations are relatively strong, bringing a significant boost to merchants’ bidding mentality. Business Society Butadiene Analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market is mainly strong and organized.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has slightly increased this week, with sulfuric acid prices rising from 306.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 310.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.31%. Weekend prices increased by 35.96% year-on-year.

The upstream market has slightly declined, while the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have fluctuated this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has experienced a significant decline, with sulfur prices dropping from 1160.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1090.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 6.03%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.66% over the weekend. The upstream market has significantly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market slightly increased, with the market price rising from 10100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10316.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.15%. Weekend prices increased by 3.17% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a high level, with a market price of 16866.67 yuan/ton. Weekend prices increased by 3.16% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late September, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Although the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have stabilized at high levels, downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. However, the upstream sulfur market has significantly declined, and cost support is insufficient. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is declining. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate and decline slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from September 8 to September 15, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China increased by 5.75%, from 8400 yuan/ton last week to 8883.33 yuan/ton this week.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures rose significantly on September 14th. The settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $90.16 per barrel, up $1.64 or 1.9%. This year, WTI reached the $90 level for the first time, reaching a new high since November 2022. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $93.70 per barrel, an increase of $1.82 or 2.0%. The main reason is that the expectation of supply tightening has overshadowed concerns about slowing economic growth and increasing US inventory. On a macro level, recent economic data has also shown good performance, with retail sales in the United States growing 0.6% month on month in August, higher than expected growth of 0.2%. Last week, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits increased to 220000, but lower than the expected 225000. The producer price index (PPI) of final demand in August increased by 0.7% month on month, higher than the expected 0.4% increase. The rebound in economic data indicates strong demand in the United States. In addition, China has recently introduced a series of positive measures. The People’s Bank of China announced on the 14th that it has decided to lower the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on September 15, 2023, which has also played a positive role in boosting market expectations.

Looking at the future, crude oil analysts from Business Society believe that both macro and fundamental factors will support oil prices in the short term. It is expected that oil prices will maintain a strong trend in the expectation of tight supply. However, currently prices are at a relatively high level, and the market should be vigilant against the correction caused by the release of bearish news

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has been raised twice in this cycle, with a cumulative increase of 450 yuan/ton during the week. Currently, it is executing at 8800 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 8900 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 8823 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 8900 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has significantly increased this week. On September 11th, the price of pure benzene was 8045 yuan/ton, and on Friday (September 15th), the price of pure benzene was 8834 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.25% compared to last week and 12.89% compared to the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has continued to rise for six consecutive weeks, slightly falling for three consecutive weeks, and rising by 9.84% this week.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, crude oil prices continued to rise during the week, reaching a high of $90 per barrel, breaking the new high for the year. The styrene market has continued to rise, reaching a new high for the year. Under the joint influence of upstream and downstream factors, the domestic pure benzene market has continuously increased. Sinopec has raised the price of pure benzene by 450 yuan/ton during the week, and it has now reached a high of 8800 yuan/ton. Driven by the sharp rise in the industrial chain, the hydrogenation benzene market continued to rise during the week, with factory prices in the main production areas rising to a high of 8800-8900 yuan/ton.

This week, the hydrogenation benzene market continued to follow the trend of pure benzene, with an increase of 400-450 yuan/ton during the week. There has been little change in supply, with a slight increase in operating rates. In terms of demand, there are plans for starting and stopping downstream devices, but overall changes are limited. The impact of supply and demand factors on the market during the week is almost negligible, and the market mainly follows the trend of the industrial chain. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have stocking demand, and the overall inventory of pure benzene in the industry chain is low. The styrene market is expected to operate at a high level in crude oil, with multiple positive impacts. It is expected that the overall hydrogenation benzene market will operate at a high level in the short term, with a focus on the impact of pre holiday stocking plans on market sentiment.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isopropanol has increased this week. Last Thursday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8080 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 9080 yuan/ton. The price increased by 12.38% during the week.

The market price of isopropanol has rapidly risen this week. At present, there are more foreign trade orders and fewer on-site goods, leading to a rapid increase in market prices. The upstream acetone market price has risen, providing strong support for isopropanol. There are many downstream inquiries, procurement is cautious, and demand is primary. Holders follow the market. Overall, the focus of market transactions is upward. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 8800-9000 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 9100-9600 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw acetone, the upstream acetone market price has rapidly increased this week. Last Thursday, the average price of acetone was 7157.5 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 7662.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 7.06%. The factory has raised the listing prices in a centralized manner, and the negotiation atmosphere among traders has been positive. In the short term, it is time to stock up before November 11th, and the terminal demand is still good. Business Society predicts that acetone will strengthen and rise in the short term, with the mainstream negotiated price in East China at 7500 yuan/ton.

In terms of propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price has increased this week. The average price in the Shandong market was 7188.25 yuan/ton last Thursday, and 7265.25 yuan/ton this Thursday, with a weekly increase of 1.08%. At present, propylene enterprises have good outbound performance, and downstream factories are actively purchasing. It is expected that the propylene market will be mainly strong in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Isopropanol analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the market prices of raw materials acetone and propylene have risen one after another, providing strong support for the raw materials. Internationally, isopropanol foreign trade orders are relatively good, and isopropanol factories mainly handle foreign trade. On the domestic side, there are fewer on-site sources of goods and prices are rising. Downstream, stay tuned, operate cautiously, and prioritize on demand. It is expected that the isopropanol market will continue to operate strongly in the short term.

Since September, the market price of polyester staple fibers has fluctuated and increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 13th, the average price quoted by 1.4D polyester staple fiber factories was 7912 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.62% compared to the beginning of September. Especially this week, the price of polyester staple fiber raw materials has significantly increased, while downstream and futures merchants have increased their search for opportunities to replenish, helping to increase the price of polyester staple fiber.

Recently, there has been strong cost support, and the crude oil market is concerned that OPEC’s reduction in production may lead to tight energy supply in the fourth quarter, pushing oil prices to a new 10 month high. As of September 12th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $88.84 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $92.06 per barrel.

In the PTA market, the price of auxiliary acetic acid continues to rise. As of September 12th, the average price of acetic acid in the East China region was 4733 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.39% compared to the beginning of the month. Affected by the boost of crude oil and acetic acid prices, as well as the unexpected decrease in PTA unit load, the market supply stage has tightened, and the price volatility is relatively strong. The average spot market price in East China is 6329 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.08% compared to the beginning of the month.

Downstream yarn factories have improved their shipments, increased willingness to restock, and improved peak season orders. The overall inventory of the polyester staple fiber industry is at a medium to low level in recent years. However, overall it was not as expected and there is still a gap compared to previous years. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment and is relatively stagnant. As of September 8th, the average price of pure polyester yarn in the Shandong region was 12925 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58% compared to the beginning of the month;

Analysts from Business Society believe that as the Asian Games approach, some polyester factories in Xiaoshan and Shaoxing regions of Zhejiang are expected to shut down for maintenance, so they maintain a high price mentality. In addition, crude oil and PTA prices remain strong, providing positive support for polyester staple fibers. However, from the perspective of textile terminals, there has been a normal seasonal increase in orders, but the increase is not enough. Some terminal textile enterprises are also relatively cautious, which may restrict the upward space of polyester staple fiber prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 8933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9000.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.75%. Weekend prices increased by 14.41% year-on-year. On September 12th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 45.85, an increase of 0.16 points from yesterday, a decrease of 56.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and a 52.22% increase from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly increased their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7338.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7113.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.07%. Weekend prices fell by 2.83% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, rising from 9733.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10033.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.08%. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, which has a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in mid to late September may be mainly fluctuating and rising. Although the upstream propylene market has slightly declined and cost support is insufficient, the downstream neopentyl glycol market continues to rise, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Product name: PVC

Latest price: 6366 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On September 11th, the PVC spot market fell, and the overall trading situation was relatively light. In terms of raw materials, the upstream calcium carbide market was temporarily stable. In terms of futures, the futures market is down today, suppressing confidence in the spot market. Overall, the trading sentiment in the PVC spot market is poor, with cautious actual order procurement and downstream wait-and-see behavior, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. Prediction: The PVC spot market may continue to fluctuate in the short term.