According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from September 12th to 19th, the market price of butadiene in China increased from 8568 yuan/ton to 8747 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.09% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 14.89%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.83%. Driven by demand in Northeast Asia, the external price of butadiene has continued to rise, while the trend of downstream synthetic rubber remains relatively strong, bringing a significant boost to the domestic market.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: Saudi Arabia and Russia’s extended production reduction deadline has led to supply tightening expectations and continued to ferment. Coupled with the US shale oil production not meeting expectations, positive supply has overshadowed demand concerns. As of the close on September 18th, the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was at $94.43 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 or 0.5%.

In terms of naphtha, the domestic market for refining naphtha has fluctuated and risen. The rise in international crude oil has driven the domestic naphtha market, and terminal restructuring is just needed to release, with refineries actively shipping. The cost of butadiene is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the main production enterprises, Sinopec and its sales companies, have seen a double increase in butadiene prices of 100 yuan/ton to 8800 yuan/ton. Dalian Hengli’s 140000 ton/year butadiene plant is operating steadily, with normal supply for export and a stable price of 8710 yuan/ton. The 64000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit of Shenhua Ningxia Coal has been operating steadily, with a small amount of supply for export and a stable price of 8300 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, the spot market for butadiene rubber saw a slight upward trend, with the increase narrowing compared to early September. The raw material prices have risen, and styrene butadiene rubber continues to receive cost support. At the same time, downstream demand has a certain level of demand support. As of September 19th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China is 13840 yuan/ton, and the factory report of Qilu Butadiene 1502 from Sinopec North China Sales Company is 13700 yuan/ton. The demand for butadiene is influenced by favorable factors.

On September 18th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at $1005- $1015 per ton; The Chinese CFR report is between $1045 and $1055 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe rose: FOB Rotterdam closed at $695-705 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 640-650 euros/ton, up 5 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, the short-term butadiene market is mainly driven by the trend of external and downstream synthetic rubber markets. Supported by high external prices, domestic supplier price expectations are relatively strong, bringing a significant boost to merchants’ bidding mentality. Business Society Butadiene Analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market is mainly strong and organized.