According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline in August. On August 30th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 210000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.36% compared to the average price of 274000 yuan/ton on August 1st. The average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate on August 30th was 224000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.81% compared to the average price of 294000 yuan/ton on August 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate remained in a downward trend in August, and the market continued to decline due to the low price of lithium carbonate futures. In terms of supply, the lithium carbonate market maintained an increase in supply in early August, and inventory continued to accumulate. Although not a few enterprises in Sichuan region have experienced production stoppages, the spot supply of lithium carbonate in the market is still relatively sufficient, which puts greater pressure on high prices in the spot market, leading to continuous price reductions.

In late August, there was little fluctuation in the production output of lithium salt factories, and there was sufficient circulation of goods in the spot market. In addition, the auction of salt lake lithium carbonate has come to an end, and the market’s supply of goods has flowed out, resulting in a large amount of spot inventory. In the current situation of oversupply in the spot market, prices fall again and again.

In terms of demand, the upstream and downstream game state of the lithium carbonate market continued in early August, and downstream purchases were cautious, with no large-scale restocking observed. The contradiction of oversupply in the market and the market atmosphere of low short-term transactions continue to disturb the mentality of some small factories and traders. The phenomenon of low prices promoting transactions in the spot market is frequent, leading to a gradual decrease in actual transaction prices.

In late August, there was a heavy pessimism in the spot market, leading to downstream procurement becoming more cautious, and the atmosphere of loose orders in the market remained weak. However, downstream procurement has not yet started on a large scale, and there has been no significant improvement on the demand side. The overall market situation of oversupply is maintained. In addition, many companies are bearish towards the future market, so the trend of purchasing underpricing remains unchanged.

On August 23rd, a 600 ton industrial grade lithium carbonate auction was held in Qinghai Salt Lake, with a starting price of RMB 180000 to 190000 per ton. The bidding will be split into 30-90 tons. The final winning prices for this auction were all between 204000 and 208000 yuan/ton (including factory tax), and there were serious differences in market views.

The lithium hydroxide market continued its downward trend, with both the lithium ore market and lithium carbonate prices weak and declining in August. Cost support weakened, and production enterprises mainly focused on long-term orders. Downstream material factories did not follow up on demand, and their enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement was not high. Market transactions were mainly on demand, and holders were actively shipping. The focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market was weak. However, downstream procurement has a cautious mindset, high-end price negotiations are weak, market atmosphere is light, and the market continues to decline.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate is weak and declining. In August, the upstream price of lithium carbonate continued to decline, and the cost support for lithium iron phosphate is weak. In the short term, lithium carbonate will maintain its previous trend. However, downstream markets often restock as needed, with manufacturers only supplying old customers and new customers not taking orders.

In terms of futures, on August 30th, the opening price of the LC2401 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 188100 yuan/ton, with the latest price of 186100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.49%, with 59300 transactions and 29534 positions.

According to lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society, there is currently sufficient supply in the lithium carbonate market, and downstream positive electrode material factories are mostly waiting for September to schedule production. For lithium carbonate prices, they are mainly wait-and-see. However, there has been no large-scale centralized replenishment in the industry, and all links in the industry chain are relatively cautious. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain weak in the short term.

The price of acetic anhydride increased significantly in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 29th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5782.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.83% compared to the fluctuating price of 5125 yuan/ton on August 1st. The price of raw material acetic acid continues to skyrocket, supported by the rising cost of acetic anhydride. In August, the price of acetic anhydride increased significantly.

Acetic acid prices continue to skyrocket in August

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of August 29th, the price of acetic acid was 3983.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.89% compared to August 1st, which was 3066.67 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the supply of goods in the market was tight, and the holders were reluctant to sell, leading to a significant increase in the price of acetic acid. The cost of acetic anhydride was strongly supported, and the rise in acetic anhydride was strongly supported.

Methanol prices fluctuated and rose in August

According to the methanol commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, as of August 29th, the methanol price was 2451.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.07% compared to August 1st, when the methanol price was 2355.83 yuan/ton. Some methanol enterprises have reduced production through maintenance, while others have resumed operations. Overall, the supply of methanol enterprises has recovered more than the loss, and there is little change in supply. Short term cost support is limited, resulting in a significant increase in methanol orders. The market transaction atmosphere is high, and methanol demand is increasing. It is expected that methanol will rise in the future.

Future prospects

Analysts from the Business Society’s acetic anhydride data believe that in terms of demand, there was no substantial improvement in downstream demand for acetic anhydride in August, and the trading atmosphere on the market remained light, with no significant positive support on the demand side; In terms of inventory, the manufacturer’s inventory is low, and acetic anhydride has no inventory pressure; In terms of cost, the continuous surge in cost side acetic acid in August has put pressure on acetic anhydride manufacturers to produce costs, resulting in losses. Driven by profits, acetic anhydride manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices. Overall, with weak supply and demand in the acetic anhydride market and strong cost support, it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and rise in the future.

The nitrile rubber market slightly increased this week (8.21-8.28). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 28th, the price of nitrile rubber was 14125 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71% from last Monday’s 14025 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene is running at a high level, while the price of acrylonitrile has slightly increased, and the cost of nitrile rubber has slightly increased; Downstream inquiries are often made on demand, resulting in relatively flat market transactions.

This week (8.21-8.28). The price of raw material butadiene has stabilized at a high level, while the price of acrylonitrile has slightly increased, and the cost of nitrile rubber has fluctuated slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 28th, the price of butadiene was 7618 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07% from last Monday’s 7613 yuan/ton; As of August 28th, the price of acrylonitrile has increased by 1.80% from last Monday’s 8312 yuan/ton at 8462 yuan/ton\

As of August 28th, the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants has been temporarily stable.

The downstream rubber product industry, such as rubber hoses and automotive parts, mainly has small inquiries and small transactions in the market. Overall, they continue to purchase on demand, and the on-site trading atmosphere is average; The supply of domestic nitrile rubber in the market is gradually increasing, but currently the inventory level is not high, and many merchants have maintained a stable and moderate adjustment.

Future forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is temporarily stable, and the downstream just needs to support the transaction atmosphere is average. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. This week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1203.33 yuan/ton, and the current price has decreased by 0.82% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and consolidated. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly, and this week’s market remains relatively stable. As of August 25th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1150-1260 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol slightly increased, but downstream panel factories’ demand continued to be weak, some manufacturers passively conceded profits, and the atmosphere of formaldehyde on-site negotiations was light, with the market fluctuating and consolidating.

Upstream methanol situation: The methanol market is experiencing a narrow upward trend, with early maintenance equipment gradually recovering and industry operating rates rebounding. At the same time, port inventory is gradually accumulating, and the supply side is affected by bearish factors. On the other hand, most downstream product companies are in a period of lucrative profits, and the industry’s operating rate is relatively strong. The supply and demand sides are in a game, and the methanol market has entered a stage of range fluctuations.

The recent fluctuation of methanol market is limited, with a slight upward trend. Cost support is still acceptable, and formaldehyde is shipped normally. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fluctuate and rise in the near future.

As the weekend approaches, domestic liquid ammonia continues to rise, and manufacturers’ quotations are rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the main production area in Shandong increased by 2.96% this week. As of August 24th, the trading center has moved up the range of 150 to 250 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3400-3600 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the increase in liquid ammonia is mainly due to the tight supply performance in the main production areas in the north, which is supported by tight supply. Some devices in the northern region are still undergoing maintenance, and sudden production restrictions in regions such as Shanxi have led to a short-term decline in enterprise operating rates and tight supply. There is a widespread phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. The manufacturer’s quotation has been raised multiple times this week, with a cumulative increase of over 200 yuan/ton. The dealer’s offer naturally rose.

On the demand side, the downstream urea market has steadily increased, with an increase of less than 50 yuan/ton this week. From a terminal perspective, agricultural demand follows up in a timely manner, while industrial demand is mainly supported by demand. However, there are not many new export orders, which may become a limiting factor for the rise of liquid ammonia in the later stage.

Prediction: Liquid ammonia analysts from Business Society believe that the tight supply of liquid ammonia will continue for a period of time in the near future, and there may still be room for upward movement in liquid ammonia prices even with little change in demand.

Aluminum prices fluctuated sideways in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on August 23, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18890 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96% compared to the previous trading day and 18596.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.58% compared to the beginning of the month (August 1).

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high decline, and has been fluctuating in the range of 18350-18650 yuan/ton in August.

Short term upward momentum

On the 23rd, the coal mine was affected by a dangerous accident, leading to a rise in coal prices, which has brought expectations of a certain cost increase to the electricity consuming and aluminum industries. The price of electrolytic aluminum has shown an emotional upward trend today.

Fundamentals remain unchanged

Enhanced raw material benefits:

1. The continuous production restrictions in the Sanmenxia area of Henan Province, as well as the increase in overseas bauxite prices, have jointly exacerbated the problem of tight supply of bauxite. The cost of alumina has increased, and the price of alumina has remained firm.

2. Steam coal is affected by news and has positive support in the short term.

Increased pressure on the supply side

Supply side: With the resumption of production by electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the southwest region, the current production capacity is at a relatively high level. The production of electrolytic aluminum in July was 3.481 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%; The cumulative production from January to July was 23.618 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. In August, with the release of production capacity in the Yunnan region, there are still expectations of production capacity growth.

Good inventory performance

In terms of social inventory: Starting from the second half of July, the inventory will continue to be depleted. As of August 21, the mainstream areas of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots have a social inventory of 434000 tons, which is 506000 tons compared to July 31, and 72000 tons have been destocked.

Poor export data

Import and export: According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in July 2023, China exported 489700 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year decrease of 24.9%; From January to July, the cumulative export volume was 3.2964 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7%. In July, China imported 231400 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%; From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.4319 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%.

Demand performance has improved

On the demand side: Downstream demand has slightly rebounded. The operating rate of aluminum profiles has significantly increased, at around 60-70%. The operating rate of aluminum strips and plates is around 70-80%, and the operating rate of aluminum cables is close to 60%. Last week, the weekly operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 59% to 60%, the weekly operating rate of aluminum profiles increased significantly by 5.6% to 67.3%, and the weekly operating rate of recycled aluminum alloys decreased by 0.3% to 49.3%.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of August 21, 2023, the reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7866 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as August 17, 2023. Compared with August 7, 2023 (reference price of n-propanol was 7783 yuan/ton), the price increased by 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.07%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (8.17-8.21), the overall market situation of n-propanol in China has remained stable and organized. The news on the n-propanol market is relatively calm, with normal supply and demand transmission. Downstream demand is relatively stable, with primary demand for procurement and normal supply side shipment rhythm. The overall market situation of n-propanol is stable, with overall consolidation and operation as the main focus. As of August 21, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7200-7600 yuan/ton. The market for n-propanol in Nanjing is relatively stable, and the market price for n-propanol is around 9000 yuan/ton. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

Currently, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is calm and moderate, with relatively stable increase in demand orders. The n-propanol data analyst at the Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly adjust and operate within a certain range. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isopropanol increased in mid August. On August 11th, the average price of isopropanol in China was 7620 yuan/ton, and on August 21st, it was 7960 yuan/ton. In mid August, the price increased by 4.46%.

The market price of isopropanol rose in mid August. At present, the market situation is relatively good. The upstream acetone market price first rose and then fell, while the propylene price increased, and cost support is still acceptable. The overall market trading is relatively active, with many inquiries on the market and difficult to find low prices, resulting in on-demand transactions. Overall, the market is relatively stagnant. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 7450-7900 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8250-8500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone rose first and then fell in mid August, and the overall price slightly decreased. On August 11th, the average price of acetone was 6895 yuan/ton, while on August 21st, the average price was 6887.5 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 0.11%. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is anxious, with crude oil continuing to rise, providing some support for downstream industry chain market prices. However, the demand for goods is weak, and the push up is weak. In the short term, the market is mainly in the need for transactions.

In terms of propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell first and then rose this week. The average price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6763.25 yuan/ton on August 11th and 685.75 yuan/ton on August 21st, with a price increase of 1.29%. The propylene market in Shandong fluctuated and rose. Due to the impact of maintenance on the propylene plant, supply has been tightened, coupled with the recent lack of inventory pressure and smooth production and sales, supporting the strong upward trend of propane prices. In terms of downstream demand, rigid demand is the main focus, with stable demand and a decent transaction atmosphere. Overall, some companies still have parking plans in the near future, and supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that the propylene market will operate stronger in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the price of raw acetone has slightly decreased, while the price of propylene in the market has increased. Overall cost support is still acceptable, and manufacturers are mainly holding up prices, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. It is expected that the isopropanol market will operate in a volatile range in the short term.

From August 11 to August 18, 2023, the overall antimony ingot market in East China was on the rise, with prices at 76750 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 78750 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, an increase of 2.61%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above figure, it can be seen that the trend of the antimony ingot market was relatively stable in April, and the overall market was weak in June. After seven consecutive weeks of decline, prices rebounded at the end of July.

The price of European strategic small metal antimony has slightly increased this week, reaching $11550 per ton as of August 18th. The price has slightly increased this week, and the market atmosphere is somewhat wait-and-see.

This week, the antimony ingot market continued its upward trend last week, rising by 2000 yuan/ton during the week. There has been little change in supply and demand compared to the previous period, and it still shows weak supply and demand. Downstream demand is still weak, and the principle of on-demand procurement for antimony ingots is maintained, resulting in a strong bearish sentiment in the market. With antimony ingot manufacturers raising prices, the antimony ingot market has accumulated an increase of about 3000 yuan/ton, and overseas markets have rebounded by $100/ton this week. Overall, the supply and demand in the antimony ingot market are weak, with refinery prices rising and antimony ingot prices rebounding. However, downstream demand is weak, and there is limited room for further upward growth in the future. It is expected to maintain temporary stable operation in the short term.

This week, the antimony oxide market followed the overall rebound in antimony ingot prices, but there was no significant improvement in market demand. The overall transaction volume in the market was relatively soft, and the demand for antimony ingots remained strong, while the intention to receive upstream goods was weak, maintaining on-demand procurement.

On August 18th, the base metal index was 1196 points, an increase of 11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.99% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and an increase of 86.29% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 17 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month on the commodity price rise and fall list in the 33rd week of 2023 (8.14-8.18), with antimony (2.61%), nickel (1.28%), and lead (1.21%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are three products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with cobalt (-2.30%), tin (-1.84%), and zinc (-1.22%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.42%.

Consolidation of plasticizer DOP prices after rising this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 17th, the price of DOP was 11608.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.24% compared to the price of 11466.67 yuan/ton on August 10th; Compared to April 11th, the DOP price of 11600 yuan/ton has stabilized. The support from rising costs remains, while supply contraction and demand remain cold. This week, the price of plasticizer DOP has stabilized after rising.

Plasticizer companies have suffered losses in profits, plasticizer manufacturers have started operating at low loads, multiple plasticizer companies have shut down their equipment, and the low level of plasticizer operation has decreased to 40%, resulting in a contraction in plasticizer supply. Downstream demand is cold, high prices of plasticizers are difficult to pass down, and the accumulation of plasticizers has increased. Against the backdrop of weak supply and demand of plasticizers and cost support, there is still support for the rise of plasticizers.

The price of isooctanol has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 17th was 11720 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.21% compared to the price of 11140 yuan/ton on August 10th. The production of domestic isooctanol units has not resumed, the supply of isooctanol is still tight, and the price of isooctanol has continued to rise. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol has surged, and the cost of plasticizer DOP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment has become cautious. With the restart of isooctanol devices, the supply side of the isooctanol market is expected to be loose, and the sustained rise of isooctanol in the future is limited in support.

The market for raw material phthalic anhydride has stopped rising and fallen

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of August 17th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.14% compared to the price of 8750 yuan/ton on August 10th. Affected by the decline in downstream production, the demand in the phthalic anhydride market has weakened, coupled with an increase in production in the phthalic anhydride industry, leading to an increase in market supply expectations and a downward pressure on the market. Moreover, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride in China has rapidly declined, and the price of ortho benzene has stabilized. The support for the price increase of ortho phthalic anhydride has weakened, and the price difference between ortho phthalic anhydride and naphthalene phthalic anhydride has widened. The downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. This week, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride has stopped rising and decreased, and the cost of plasticizer raw materials has decreased. The downward pressure on plasticizers has increased.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the production of isooctanol has not yet resumed, the price of isooctanol continues to rise, the downstream demand for phthalic anhydride remains weak, the price of phthalic anhydride has stopped rising and fallen, and the support for the increase in DOP cost of plasticizer products has weakened; Downstream PVC procurement enthusiasm is cold, and demand for plasticizers is weakening; The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is low, and the supply of plasticizers is tight. In the future, against the backdrop of weak supply and demand of plasticizers, the support for cost increases is weakened, and the support for plasticizer DOP increases is insufficient. It is expected that plasticizer DOP prices will fluctuate and consolidate at high levels.