1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market is stable. At present, the quotation in Henan Province is about 2300-2350 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province is about 2400-2500 yuan / ton, in Hebei Province is about 2500 yuan / ton, in Shaanxi Province is about 2150 yuan / ton, in Jiangsu Province is about 2400-2500 yuan / ton, in Zhejiang Province is about 2600-2700 yuan / ton, and in South China, the price is about 2300-2350 yuan / ton The quotation is about 2650-2700 yuan / ton.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: at present, the domestic acetic acid market is in stable operation. With the recovery of Jiangsu Thorpe production, the spot supply in the market has been improved to a certain extent. The intention of stock up and stock up in the downstream market is flat at the end of the year. More and more acetic acid needs to be purchased, and the market is in a roughly balanced state of supply and demand.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the methanol market continued to weaken, with a slight drop of 0.83% in the week. At present, it is about 2045 yuan / ton; domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and acetic anhydride industries are stable and soft in the week, with poor demand in the terminal market, flat delivery of enterprises and high pressure; PTA spot market has a flat demand for terminals, with acceptable cost support, with a slight increase of 1.53% in the week, and now it is reported as about 4964 yuan / ton.

International: this week, the international acetic acid market is mainly stable, among which the North American acetic acid market is stable, about 610 US dollars / ton at present; the Asian acetic acid market is stable, about 310-365 US dollars / ton at present; the European acetic acid market is stable, about 650 euros / ton at present.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of the business association, the overall domestic acetic acid market is still in good condition, with low inventory. Jiangsu Thorpe has been restarted and completed. Hebei Jiantao started maintenance for about 3 days on December 30. However, the downstream demand is flat, and the purchase is rigid. The business owners are more cautious and wait-and-see. It is expected that the acetic acid market will maintain stability in a short period of time.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: MTBE market price fell in December

According to the data of business agency, the market price of MTBE fell in December. The price of MTBE at the end of December was 5350 yuan / ton, down 3.89% from 5566 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Product: WTI crude oil market price rose 11.37% in December. Restricted by the weak gasoline demand, the domestic gasoline market price rose only 3.99% in December, but the downstream MTBE market price declined instead of rising.

Industrial chain: since December, the market demand for refined oil has remained low, but in December, the domestic refined oil market will show a pattern of “stranded” and “increased”. In addition, the international crude oil market has risen sharply, which has driven the price of domestic refined oil market up.

Market: domestic gasoline consumption is still in the off-season in December, the stock up before the Spring Festival is still not started, MTBE demand is weak, MTBE manufacturers still take ensuring shipment and reducing inventory as the main task, which is supported by the sharp rise of international oil price at the beginning of the month. In the middle of this month, the market price of MTBE continued to decline under the pressure of weak gasoline and falling alkylation oil. At the same time, the downstream demand of basic chemical oil has not been started, and the price fell slowly in the week, and the delivery was poor. Therefore, the MTBE market price performance this month is far lower than the gasoline market.

3、 Future forecast

According to MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business news agency, the international crude oil market has basically reached the year’s high, and the upward trend has been blocked. However, new year’s day and Spring Festival holidays have come one after another, and the demand for gasoline market may increase. It is expected that the domestic MTBE market price will rise steadily in January.

1. Saudi oil prices skyrocketed when the oil field was attacked, and a series of chemicals such as pure benzene rose.

On September 14, 2019, Saudi Aramco oil field was attacked by UAV, resulting in a sharp reduction of 5.7 million barrels of oil per day, close to 6% of global oil production. Affected by this, WTI surged more than 15% after the opening of the electronic trading system of the New York Mercantile Exchange on Sunday night EDT, and Brent crude oil futures rose nearly 19% after the opening, the largest percentage increase in more than 30 years.

The sharp rise in crude oil led to the rise of a series of chemicals, the positive growth of the pure benzene industry chain led to the rapid increase in the negotiation price, breaking through the prediction of the high level of the previous industry.

2. In the “321″ water incident, under the pressure of environmental protection, the start-up of the terminal resin and intermediate industry declined sharply, and the raw materials declined significantly.

3.21 there was a huge explosion in Xiangshui chemical industry park, 3.25 in Yantai, Shandong Province. 3.29 in Qingzhou, Shandong Province. 3.31 in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, there was a metal container explosion. Accidents occurred frequently in chemical enterprises. The chemical renovation actions of local governments were launched one after another. On April 4, the Standing Committee of Yancheng Municipal Committee held a meeting and pointed out that Xiangshui chemical industry would be shut down completely Park. Due to the influence of chemical renovation in various regions, the downstream phenolic resin, pesticide intermediates and other enterprises are limited to start work as a whole, and some small and medium-sized enterprises are facing elimination.

3. The final result of phenol antidumping announced that the structure of source country had been adjusted

Ministry of Commerce issued announcement No. 29 of 2019 on September 3, announcing the final ruling on the anti-dumping investigation of imported Phenol originating in the United States, EU, South Korea, Japan and Thailand. The final ruling was that there was dumping of imported Phenol originating in the United States, EU, South Korea, Japan and Thailand, the domestic industry suffered substantial damage, and there was a causal relationship between dumping and substantial damage. The decision was made since September 2019 From June 6, the anti-dumping duty on phenol imported from the above countries (regions) will be levied at the rate of 10.6% – 287.2%, with a period of 5 years.

Because of the high anti-dumping duty on American goods, American goods basically bid farewell to China’s spot market. In the non investigated countries, imports from Saudi Arabia increased significantly, becoming the main channel of phenol import in China in recent months.

4. The anti-dumping duties on bisphenol A imported from Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan will be continued.

On August 29, the Ministry of Commerce issued announcement No. 36 of 2019. Since August 30, 2019, the anti-dumping duty on bisphenol A imported from Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan will continue to be imposed for 5 years. As the anti-dumping duty rate of bisphenol A is the same as that in the earlier stage, the market response to this delay is flat.

5. From November 21, 2019, no anti-dumping duty will be imposed on the import of methyl ethyl ketone originating in Japan and Taiwan.

Ministry of Commerce announced on November 20, 2019 that it decided to terminate the anti-dumping final review investigation on the import of MEK originating in Japan and Taiwan. Since November 21, 2019, the anti-dumping duty on the import of MEK originating in Japan and Taiwan will no longer be imposed. After the termination of the anti-dumping policy, it is expected that the market level of butanone in China will be limited.

6. Butanone rose 35.64% in the first half of September 2019.

The supply is insufficient. In September, most of the factories are seriously short of inventory, and there is a shortage of spot goods. The prices quoted by factories and dealers are pre-sale prices two weeks later. The shortage of butanone market is serious and is expected to last for some time. The factory mentality is rising, and traders take the opportunity to report higher. According to the data monitoring of business association, as of September 12, according to the comprehensive quotation of several mainstream regions, the overall average price of butanone market is around 9133 yuan / ton, which is 2400 yuan / ton higher than that of September 1, with an increase rate of 35.64%.

7. The acetone market rose by 50% in November 2019.

In November, the domestic acetone market was crazy. In only one month, the acetone market (East China market as an example) rose by 2000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the East China market rose by 50%. The main reason for the sharp upward trend is the sharp contradiction between supply and demand, low port inventory, and good demand for new downstream devices. However, the upward trend has brought pressure on downstream factories, resulting in a sharp drop in profit value. By the end of the month, some end products were in a loss state.

8. VAT reduced to 13%.

On March 21, the Ministry of finance, the State Administration of Taxation and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued the announcement on policies related to deepening the reform of value added tax, announcing the unprecedented reduction of value-added tax rate this year, which officially opened on April 1. According to the announcement, from April 1, when general VAT taxpayers conduct VAT taxable sales or import goods, if the original 16% tax rate is applied, the tax rate will be adjusted to 13%; if the original 10% tax rate is applied, the tax rate will be adjusted to 9%. Due to the reduction of value-added tax rate, the cost of commodity price is lower than that of the previous period, among which the ex factory price of industrial products is lower, the cost of customs clearance of imported goods is lower, the cost of receiving goods of downstream enterprises is lower, and the production profit of downstream enterprises is improved.

The acetone market in 2019 is very addictive, falling below 3000 and rising to 6000. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, at the beginning of the year, manufacturers in East China made an offer of 3900 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 41.4% up to 5512 yuan / ton; the lowest price was 2900 yuan / ton on April 5, and the highest price was 5962 yuan / ton on November 27, with a maximum amplitude of 105%. Overall, the acetone market in 2019 is roughly divided into the following stages:

Factory price of acetone in East China in 2019

Market price of acetone in all regions of China in 2019

The first quarter: after the festival, the market demand was depressed. The market of “3.21″ Yancheng water incident was under severe pressure. Acetone fell to the “2″ era, and the lowest point appeared in the whole year.

After new year’s day, the overall performance of acetone market was bleak. Although there were sporadic isopropanol factories to purchase on demand, they were under pressure from the point of view of the suppliers. They had strong intention of contract shipment, and the terminal factories were on the low side of market delivery, which led to the continuous decline of negotiation focus. Then the Spring Festival came and the market was basically stagnant. After the festival, the port inventory rose to around 64000 tons, and the inventory of mainstream petrochemical enterprises was high. Some factories and the reservoir area urged the delivery of goods. In order to complete the task, the contracted customers had a high enthusiasm for shipping, and the focus of market negotiation was constantly low. In March, the domestic acetone market fell to a new low in recent years. It is difficult to improve the situation of high storage in the port, and the downstream terminal is weak in buying gas. Although the importer’s interest intention is limited due to the high import cost, it is unable to resist the double pressure of supply and demand, and the center of gravity is continuously lower. Sinopec’s development unit price is also reduced to cope with this, and the atmosphere of on-site trading is low. Then, with the help of the good news of VAT reform, the operators waited for the opportunity to raise prices in a narrow range. However, the good times did not last long. “3.21″ Yancheng water explosion occurred, and the demand of downstream factories was seriously under pressure, resulting in the market focus falling again and again, and entering the “2″ era in an all-round way. The lowest negotiated price of acetone in the first half of the year is 2850 yuan / ton.

The second quarter: in the second quarter, domestic acetone slightly improved, but it was difficult to make a breakthrough as a whole, and it was generally flat and narrow upward.

In the second quarter, the domestic acetone market entered the stage of rising and falling. Although the port inventory once rose to the level of 74000 tons, Shandong lihuayi Weiyuan plant was shut down, Yangzhou Shiyou plant was restarted, but the contract was reduced; Changshu Changchun prepared materials for the new bisphenol a plant on June 11, and the contract was reduced by one third; Shanghai xisa plant was put into negative operation; and Taiwan chemical supply contract was also reduced. In the case of tight supply of domestic goods contracts, sporadic downstream factories and traders accelerate the pace of replenishment. In addition, with the rising cost of external goods, the intention of low price shipment of port goods sources slows down significantly. In the case of no pressure on domestic contract shipment, the offer is rapidly pushed up. Driven by this, petrochemical enterprises focus on replenishment, the market trading atmosphere is obviously improved, and the market focus is pushed up.

However, with the arrival of high temperature weather, the overall downstream demand performance is weak, the factory and the reservoir area begin to avoid high temperature to control the pace of shipment, and the downstream BPA factory has centralized parking and maintenance, some supporting upstream factories reduce the load or reduce the opening unit price to ease the delivery pressure, resulting in the market price loosening, and the market turns lower again. Therefore, it is difficult for the market to get rid of the magic spell of the up and down space of 200 yuan from May to June. Until the end of June, East China acetone negotiation center was 3050 yuan / ton.

The third quarter: the acetone market came in the spring. With the rising cost, the unit dropped its load and the market rose sharply.

First of all, pure benzene and propylene, one of the raw materials, rose sharply. At the beginning of July, the price of pure benzene rose rapidly, especially in the United States. Due to heavy rainfall and flood, the production load of local factories in the United States is limited, and the supply of pure benzene is reduced due to the decrease of main contract and spot release. In addition, due to the damage of the terminal, the shipping congestion resulted in the delay of the arrival of some pure benzene, and the market forced the price to soar. The cumulative increase has reached 750 yuan / ton to 5250 yuan / ton. In July, the market price of propylene soared like the temperature of this season. By the middle of July, the main transaction volume of propylene price in Shandong had risen to 7950-8050 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of June. The continuous tight supply is still the main driving force behind the rise of propylene price, followed by the continuous breakthrough in polypropylene futures, which undoubtedly injected a “strong impetus” into the market. With the help of many parties, the price of propylene has reached a new high.

Phenol ketone manufacturer “parent son” phenol is not strong, the enterprise loses money, reduces the negative production, the acetone supply reduces. On the contrary, the market of pure benzene and propylene keeps rising, and domestic phenol and ketone factories once fell into the mire of loss. Yangzhou Shiyou, Shanghai xisa, Huizhou Zhongxin and other factories choose to reduce the burden. Up to now, the overall operating rate of phenol ketone plant in China is 87%.

Affected by the higher price of the external market and the decrease of the import volume, the domestic contract goods are shipped smoothly, the acetone inventory of the domestic phenol and ketone factories is low, some manufacturers are limited to ship, and in order to get out of the loss, the manufacturers began to increase the acetone opening unit price. As of the end of the third quarter, the acetone market offered 5000 yuan / ton.

The fourth quarter: after the rational callback, it entered the crazy rise, the highest point of the year appeared, and the market entered the callback period again near the end of the year.

After the National Day holiday, the terminal demand is hard to digest after the early uplink, and the downstream factories gradually appear negative production situation. Compared with the high price intermediate traders at this time, they are less willing to store goods. After the holiday, the market returns to enter a rational callback period, and the offer of large single customers gradually declines. According to the data of business and social supervision, the market offer declines from 5125 yuan / ton to 4350 yuan / ton, and the current market decline reaches 15%. However, in November, the acetone market entered a period of crazy growth. In only one month, the acetone market (East China market as an example) rose by 2000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market in East China increased by 40%, and the negotiation in East China market reached 6350 yuan / ton at the end of November. In December, the market entered a callback period again. Up to now, the overall market has risen in the fourth quarter, up 10.25% (East China factory offer as an example), with a maximum amplitude of 40% (market offer as an example)

The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the port inventory is low and the demand is good, which is the main reason for the crazy upward trend of acetone.

First of all, the arrival of goods at the port has decreased. In November, the ship load was 50000 tons, but in fact, due to the weather and other factors, it didn’t arrive at the port on time. The arrival cargo was relatively scattered, and many sources of cargo had been prepared for the downstream. By the end of last week, the port inventory was less than 10000 tons.

Secondly, under the influence of related products phenol, the enterprise did not start at full load. In recent years, phenol market trend is very poor, reaching the lowest point in the year. Under the impact of the Middle East goods source, port inventory is high, and the pressure on traders and manufacturers to ship is large. Despite the frequent decline of the market, the market is still in a cold trading situation. Although there are bottom reading comments in the industry, most people still operate cautiously, after all, the market is extremely cold. Although phenol ketone factory can limit production and offer price, the crazy acetone market is hard to give up. Nearly 90% of the total construction started.

Finally, the demand for new downstream devices increases. In the downstream MMA industry, Chongqing Yixiang 90000 T / a plant was put into operation in October, and the demand for acetone by manufacturers is around 5000 t / month, which forms a greater support for the demand for acetone. Another is isopropanol industry. The 50000 ton / year unit of Qingdao helica is put into operation. According to the unit consumption of isopropanol and acetone, the demand for acetone is also relatively objective. The downstream of acetone is supported by new units, which forms a strong pull for the increase of demand for acetone.

To sum up, the market in 2019 is generally good, especially in November, the industry profits are considerable, and the market is dominated by the upward trend throughout the year. Although the market is loose near the end of the year, the overall market is still operating at a high level. Now, the market is relatively high, showing a high opening and a low going, and the downstream profits are damaged. At present, the downstream just need purchase and transaction is general. The port shipping period in late December is good, and the port inventory is expected to be good Continue to improve, later acetone market still needs to be cautious.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on December 24, the average price of domestic refrigerant R134a was 23166.67 yuan / ton, slightly increased by 0.72% compared with 23000 yuan / ton the previous day. On December 24, the R134a commodity index was 84.76, up 0.61 points from yesterday, down 15.24% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2019-09-02), and up 2.21% from the lowest point of 82.93 on November 12, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R134a market of refrigerant market is acceptable in the near future. At present, the supply of R134a is tight, and the inventory is at a low level, resulting in a small increase in the price of R134a. However, the hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end is getting warmer, and the cost support is acceptable. The end of the year is generally stocked, and the demand for refrigerant R134a is not high. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of December 24, the quotation of R134a of Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. in Quzhou is 21500 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang lengwang technology is 22500 yuan / ton, that of Yuemei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 23000 yuan / ton, that of Longxun trade is 21500 yuan / ton, that of Yumei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 23000 yuan / ton, that of blue planet is 25000 yuan / ton, and that of Yumei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 21000 yuan / ton – 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the market situation of upstream products in the domestic hydrofluoric acid hydrofluoric acid market has improved, the mainstream price is 9500-11000 yuan / ton, the factory price of some manufacturers in the field is temporarily stable, the domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers’ operating rate is average, the supply of goods in the field is sufficient, and the market price in the field is stable. Terminal, air conditioning industry demand is not high, refrigerant R134a price.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, R134a is currently in a tight supply and low inventory. It is expected that R134a prices will continue to rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The propane market rose broadly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propane market was 4195 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 4950 yuan / ton, up 18% in the week, up 5.6% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic propane Market Transaction atmosphere this week is moderate. As of December 20, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so it was not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 5050 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4900 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 5000 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 5000 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 5000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propane of Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 5000 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4900 yuan / ton.

Propane rose broadly in Shandong this week, ranging from 700-1000 yuan / ton, breaking new highs in the year. The main influence factor of this rise is driven by the sharp rise in the intake. At present, the shortage of international spot resources, the increasing cost and the decrease of propane flowing into China have led to the wide rise of domestic port price, which has led to the sharp rise of refining price. Downstream buy up mentality under the active market, manufacturers shipping smoothly, low inventory. In the later period, the import gas fell back, and the market continued to rise with insufficient momentum, and gradually recovered.

Saudi Aramco’s December CP announced a slight increase in propylene butane. Propane rose to $440 / T, up $10 / T from last month; butane $455 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 50th week of 2019 (12.16-12.20), there are 18 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector. The top three commodities are epichlorohydrin (4.13%), maleic anhydride (2.23%) and propane (2.06%). There are 24 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are sulfur (- 6.98%), chloroform (- 5.13%), isopropanol (- 4.55%). This week’s average was – 0.39%.

3、 Future forecast

Propane analysts believe that: the current price is relatively high, the downstream capacity is limited, more delisting wait-and-see, mainly cautious. However, in the early stage, the manufacturer delivered goods well. At present, the inventory is not under pressure, and the mentality is relatively strong. It is expected that the trend will be high consolidation next week.

1、 Price trend

Take the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process, which has a large volume in the domestic market, as an example. According to the data in the bulk list of business agencies, the price of titanium dioxide is stable this week, with an average price of 15300 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the market price of titanium dioxide this week is generally stable. The price of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is 14600-15800 yuan / ton, that of anatase titanium dioxide is 12800-14000 yuan / ton, and that of chlorination titanium dioxide is 18500-20000 yuan / ton. As the end of the year approaches, titanium dioxide enterprises are affected by the routine maintenance and environmental protection at the end of the year. The downstream stock starts to increase, and the enterprise’s stock is much better than that at the earlier stage. In addition, titanium ore price is firm. Although the market is in the off season, titanium dioxide market has also been stable, and the market price is single.

Industry chain: this week, the market price of titanium ore in Panxi region was basically stable, the supply of medium ore was tight, and some market quotations were slightly increased. At present, the price of 38 titanium ores excluding tax in Panxi area is 830-860 yuan / ton, 46, 10 titanium ores excluding tax is 1270-1320 yuan / ton, 47, 20 titanium ores are 1300-1350 yuan / ton. At the end of the year, there will be a lot of goods in the downstream, the supply of titanium ore will be tight, and the price of titanium ore will continue to run at a high level.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts believe that: this week domestic titanium dioxide market price stability. Near the end of the year, the downstream stock began to increase, and the enterprise’s stock taking was better than that in the earlier stage. In the short term, the market price of titanium dioxide has been stable, and the actual operation is a single discussion.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the market price of epichlorohydrin rose on December 18, the average price of enterprises on December 16 was 12100 yuan / ton, the average price of enterprises on December 18 was 12600 yuan / ton, and the three-day increase of epichlorohydrin was 4.13%. In a three-month cycle, it fell 4.30% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: market of epichlorohydrin rose recently. On the 16th, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market was around 11800-12500 yuan / ton, the downstream just need to buy increased, and the focus of market negotiation increased. On the 17th, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 12166.67 yuan / ton. Due to the unstable production of some plant units, the spot supply in the field was tight, the manufacturers were reluctant to sell at a high price, and the willingness to ship at a low price was not strong. On the 18th, the market price of epichlorohydrin rose again Yang, the average price of the enterprise is 12600 yuan / ton, the industry is cautious in market participation, and the market is full of wait-and-see mood. At present, the mainstream price of the domestic epichlorohydrin market is around 11800-13000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market of propylene in Shandong Province was flat on the 18th. At the beginning of December, influenced by the “Black Friday” international crude oil market, the price began to decline. The price has fallen by about 400 yuan / ton this month. After that, the price remained stable. On the 18th, all prices were stable. At present, the market turnover is still around 6670-7050 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 6670-6700 yuan / ton. On the 18th, the downstream epoxy resin was supported by the cost of raw materials, which reduced the supply of low-cost goods.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on December 18, 2019, among which epichlorohydrin (3.56%), propane (1.53%) and styrene (0.90%) are the top three commodities. There are 11 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodity decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were chloroform (- 5.13%), acetone (- 2.63%) and butadiene (- 2.26%). The 18 day average rose or fell by – 0.09%.

3、 Future forecast:

Epichlorohydrin analysts of the business association believe that the price of propylene in the near future is generally stable, which has little impact on epichlorohydrin. The supply side is tight. Although high price raw materials inevitably cause conflicts among downstream users, manufacturers are willing to support the market, and low price is hard to find. It is expected that epichlorohydrin will increase slightly in the short term. More attention should be paid to the information guidance of upstream and downstream mainstream manufacturers.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 × 3)

2. Latest price (December 17, 2019): 11858.33 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 11600-11800 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 11600-11800 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 12400-12600 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

On the supply side, affected by the low water period, the operating rate in Yunchuan region has moved down from the same period, with a range of 8-10%. The production increase in Xinjiang, Fujian, Hunan and Shaanxi regions is not large. Generally speaking, the supply is tight.

On the demand side, aluminum alloy is affected by weak vehicle sales, which leads to poor demand and lower operating rate; recently, the price of organosilicon has risen, but at the end of the year, it is planned to maintain more production capacity, mainly purchase on demand and reduce demand; polysilicon volume and price have fallen together, which is short-term negative, and the overall demand of the three downstream metal silicon is weak.

In terms of import and export, there are not many new orders near the end of Christmas and New Year holidays. Most of the port shipments are centralized shipments based on the year-end goods preparation orders in the early stage, and the outbound quantity of the port warehouse in December may have a significant increase on a month on month basis.

4. Future market forecast: supply and demand are weak, and the future market is mainly waiting for the change of downstream demand. It is expected that the short-term stable operation of silicon metal is the main thing.

I. price trend

Monoammonium phosphate has continued to decline since the winter, according to the data in the business club’s large list. On December 16, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium in China was 1916 yuan / ton, which was 1.71% lower than that on December 15 (1950 yuan / ton). On December 16, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 64.16, down 1.11 points from yesterday, down 36.37% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 3.33% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: at present, the operating rate of monoammonium phosphate is about 40%. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1850-2000 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, 55% of powdered ammonium is quoted from 1800 yuan to 1950 yuan / ton, and 60% of mainstream powdered ammonium is quoted from 1950 to 2100 yuan / ton. Some enterprises are in charge of equipment maintenance. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation. The ex factory quotation of 55% ammonium powder is 1800-1950 yuan / ton. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-2000 yuan / ton, which is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is 1850-2000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the upstream domestic sulfur market is flat, the atmosphere is cold, and generally enters the wait-and-see mood. The industry is bearish on the future market. At present, the reference price of particles in Yangtze River port is 525 yuan / ton. In the near future, the phosphorus chemical industry market has also entered the most slack season of the year. The phosphorus ore market continues to be consolidated and operated. The market is still weak. Many mining enterprises have limited production and quoted prices. Before the year, the prices were not adjusted, and a small part of the mine prices fluctuated slightly. The 30% grade phosphorus ore quotation was reduced by 10-40 yuan / ton, with the overall market still running smoothly. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is not good.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are 24 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are glycol (17.59%), crude benzene (7.07%) and aniline (6.81%). There are 28 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are hydrochloric acid (- 6.41%), chloroform (- 4.55%), and bisphenol A (- 3.62%). This week’s average was 0.07%.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association, at present, the deep winter has come, the raw material market is cold, the terminal demand is not strong, the downstream is ready to use, and the new orders are rare. It is expected that the decline of monoammonium phosphate will be hard to change in the later period, and the weak operation will continue to prevail. It is suggested to pay attention to the real-time market trends.