1、 Price trend
The propane market rose broadly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propane market was 4195 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 4950 yuan / ton, up 18% in the week, up 5.6% compared with the same period last year.
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: the domestic propane Market Transaction atmosphere this week is moderate. As of December 20, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so it was not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 5050 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4900 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 5000 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 5000 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 5000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propane of Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 5000 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4900 yuan / ton.
Propane rose broadly in Shandong this week, ranging from 700-1000 yuan / ton, breaking new highs in the year. The main influence factor of this rise is driven by the sharp rise in the intake. At present, the shortage of international spot resources, the increasing cost and the decrease of propane flowing into China have led to the wide rise of domestic port price, which has led to the sharp rise of refining price. Downstream buy up mentality under the active market, manufacturers shipping smoothly, low inventory. In the later period, the import gas fell back, and the market continued to rise with insufficient momentum, and gradually recovered.
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Saudi Aramco’s December CP announced a slight increase in propylene butane. Propane rose to $440 / T, up $10 / T from last month; butane $455 / T, up $10 / T from last month.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 50th week of 2019 (12.16-12.20), there are 18 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector. The top three commodities are epichlorohydrin (4.13%), maleic anhydride (2.23%) and propane (2.06%). There are 24 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are sulfur (- 6.98%), chloroform (- 5.13%), isopropanol (- 4.55%). This week’s average was – 0.39%.
3、 Future forecast
Propane analysts believe that: the current price is relatively high, the downstream capacity is limited, more delisting wait-and-see, mainly cautious. However, in the early stage, the manufacturer delivered goods well. At present, the inventory is not under pressure, and the mentality is relatively strong. It is expected that the trend will be high consolidation next week.
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