Acetic anhydride price rose first and then fell in October

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic anhydride rose first and then fell in October, but the rise of acetic anhydride was not lasting, and the price of acetic anhydride fell quickly after a short rise. As of October 28, the price of acetic anhydride was 5750 yuan/ton, down 6.25% from 6133.33 yuan/ton on October 13, and up 1.47% from 5666.67 yuan/ton on October 1; Affected by the post holiday replenishment, the price of raw material acetic acid soared, the price of methanol soared, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the price of acetic anhydride rose; At the end of the replenishment, the price of methanol plummeted, the price of acetic acid fell, the rise of acetic anhydride was not supported enough, and the price of acetic anhydride fell.

Acetic acid price rose first and then fell in October

It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price of the business community that the price of acetic acid rose first and then fell in October, and the price of acetic acid rose briefly and then fell rapidly. As of October 28, the price of acetic acid was 3442.50 yuan/ton, down 8.75% from the monthly highest price of 3772.50 yuan/ton on October 13; The price of acetic acid increased by 3.92% from 3312.50 yuan/ton on October 1. The post holiday replenishment and the maintenance of acetic acid enterprises had a double impact. The price of acetic acid rose sharply, up to nearly 14%. With the completion of the replenishment and the resumption of the construction of acetic acid enterprises in the middle of the year, the price of acetic acid fell sharply. As the price of acetic acid approached the cost line, the downward space for the price of acetic acid decreased, and the price of acetic acid in the future was weak and stable.

Methanol prices fell sharply after a brief rise in October

It can be seen from the trend chart of methanol price of the business community that methanol fell sharply after a short rise in October. As of October 28, the price of methanol was 2790 yuan/ton, down 14.07% from 3246.67 yuan/ton on October 8. In October, the price of natural gas, the raw material of methanol, fell sharply, the cost of methanol fell, the price of methanol fell with it, the cost of acetic acid and acetic anhydride downstream of methanol fell, and the downward pressure of acetic acid and acetic anhydride downstream increased.

Future outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analysts of the business community, the price of acetic anhydride rose briefly in October and then fell rapidly. The high price of acetic anhydride was difficult to last for two reasons: the prices of upstream raw materials methanol and acetic acid rose first and then fell, and the cost of acetic anhydride was not supported enough; Downstream acetic anhydride demand remains weak, and downstream support is insufficient. In general, the demand for cost reduction is weak, and the support for acetic anhydride growth is insufficient. It is expected that acetic anhydride prices will fall in a weak and volatile way in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic LNG on October 1 was 6834 yuan/ton, and the average price of domestic LNG on October 27 was 5710 yuan/ton. Domestic LNG prices fell 16.45% this month.

2、 Market analysis

It can be seen from the weekly rise and fall from August 1, 2022 to October 23, 2022 that the domestic LNG industry has seen a lot of ups and downs during the cycle. The maximum increase in the cycle was 10.25% in the week of September 12, and the maximum decrease was -7.43% in the week of August 22. There was a large drop in October, with the largest drop of -6.19% in the week of October 10.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the average price of domestic LNG on October 27 was 5710 yuan/ton, 1124 yuan/ton lower than 6834 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 16.45% lower, 18.85% lower than the same period last year.

The domestic LNG market price fell sharply in October, with a decline of 16.45% in the month. During the National Day, the price of liquefied natural gas was lowered due to transportation obstacles. After the National Day holiday, the transportation of dangerous chemicals returned to normal, and downstream replenishment increased. The price of LNG continued to rise under the favorable situation of demand follow-up. In the middle of October, the domestic LNG price began to fall, and the demand for downstream replenishment decreased. The epidemic situation has a great impact on upstream shipment, and the market has fallen back. As the impact of the domestic epidemic weakened, the traffic began to recover smoothly, and LNG stopped falling and stabilized. In late October, due to the strengthening of epidemic control, poor traffic, sufficient on-site supply and insufficient downstream demand, liquid plants reduced prices one after another, resulting in a strong bearish sentiment in the market. As of October 27, 5700-6200 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia, 5890-6200 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 6000-6550 yuan/ton in Shanxi, 6000 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 6200-7100 yuan/ton in Hebei and 6550-6900 yuan/ton in Henan.

3、 Future market forecast

LNG analysts from the business community believe that the domestic LNG market fell sharply in October, and the market continued to decline. At present, the market trading and investment are flat, the traffic is blocked under the control of the epidemic situation, and the market supply exceeds the demand. It is expected that domestic LNG prices will continue to fall mainly in the short term under the negative factors.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of nitrile rubber was 15850 yuan/ton on the 26th, down 0.47% from the previous day. Domestic nitrile rubber started at a high load, with relatively sufficient supply. Downstream insulation foam, rubber hose and other industries started at a low level, purchasing was not active, market transactions were light, and some nitrile rubber merchants’ offers were adjusted downward by 200~300 yuan/ton. Since October, the price of butadiene as raw material has declined in a weak way. Although the price of acrylonitrile has risen significantly, it is still at a low level within two years, and the support for the cost of butadiene rubber is not obvious.

Future market forecast: due to weak downstream demand and loose supply, the nitrile rubber market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the price of toluene weakened this week. The price was 7790 yuan/ton on October 14 and 7690 yuan/ton on Friday (October 21), down 1.28% from last week; It was up 11.77% year on year.

2、 Analysis and review

In the early stage, the supply of toluene increased due to the inflow of toluene from Yatong Petrochemical, Qirun Petrochemical and Xinhai Petrochemical into the market. Since the beginning of October, the demand for downstream chemical products has remained just in demand, the terminal gasoline has continued to fall, the demand is weak, the pressure on supply and demand has increased, and the pressure on toluene has declined.

In terms of external markets, the price of toluene in Asia fell in shock this week. On Thursday (October 20), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $959/ton, a year-on-year drop of $20/ton, or 2.04%.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell into a deadlock this week. Under the expectation of multi country interest rate increase, economic recession worries continue to depress the crude oil market; However, supported by the sharp decline of US crude oil inventory and OPEC+production reduction in the week, oil prices rose and fell. As of October 21, Brent price this week rose by 1.87 dollars/barrel, or 2.04%, compared with last week; WTI fell 0.56 USD/barrel, down 0.65%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China continued to rise this week. On October 14, the price was 25033 yuan/ton, and on October 21, the price was 26833 yuan/ton, up 7.19% from last week and 79.49% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On October 14, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, and on October 21, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and up 27.4% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline rebounded after falling this week. On October 14, the price was 8420 yuan/ton, and on October 21, the price was 8303 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from last week and 5.19% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market continued the long short game. Positive, OPEC+production reduction, European winter energy supply shortage. Bad news: European and American interest rate hikes are expected, and the market’s worries about economic recession continue to weigh on the crude oil market. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Most of September is the peak demand season, while the downstream demand of toluene is poor at present. In the short term, toluene continues its weak trend and the price rebound is blocked. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

This week, the domestic EVA market continued to be weak and continued to decline. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 20666.67 yuan/ton on October 16 and 20200.00 yuan/ton on October 24, with a decline of 2.24% in the week and 23.58% compared with the same period last year.

The domestic EVA market continued to weaken this week. The bad news was obvious in the week. Petrochemical enterprises lowered the ex factory price twice, and the supply of goods in the auction fell sharply, bringing significant pressure on the market. In addition, the market demand is general. There is no obvious change in the demand for photovoltaic materials, and the demand for foaming materials is poor. The downstream multi-dimensional companies need to purchase rigid materials, and the market trading atmosphere is light. Businessmen are pessimistic, and prices are mainly lowered.

In general, the market has no good support, the factory price of petrochemical enterprises continues to lead the decline, the terminal demand is limited, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is not high, and the market trading and investment atmosphere is difficult to improve. It is expected that the domestic EVA market price will continue to decline in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, the POM market fluctuated in the middle of October, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell in an arc. As of October 22, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of the business community was about 13700 yuan/ton, up or down+0.24% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain.

Upstream formaldehyde market fell, and POM cost end support weakened. In terms of industry load, the overall load of domestic POM industry enterprises remains high, and the supply of goods is abundant. Next week, individual enterprises have maintenance plans, and the supply of goods is expected to be tightened. There is strong competition on the market. After some petrochemical plants raised their ex factory prices this week, the market acceptance was poor, causing a certain decline. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is generally restricted by profit and other factors, and the location is general. In terms of purchasing, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the supply of high priced goods is relatively opposed. At the same time, there is an early stock of goods, and the overall demand is weak. This week’s in market trading is dominated by small orders. It is difficult for high price goods to be shipped. The merchants talk about it alone, and the buyers have a heavy wait-and-see mentality.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that: this week, the POM market fluctuated, the upstream formaldehyde market fell, and the POM cost support weakened. The load of POM industry is high, and there is pressure on the supply side. The demand follow-up of downstream enterprises has not improved, and downstream enterprises mainly digest inventory and purchase scattered small orders. According to the news, there is still a plan to increase the ex factory price of petrochemical plants. With the load of an enterprise decreasing next week, it is expected that the decline of POM price may be limited in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, on October 20, the domestic methanol port in East China was 2898 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous working day and down 28.66% year on year. On October 20, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose in shock. The main contract MA2301 closed at 2699 yuan/ton in late trading, up 45 or 1.70% from the previous trading day.

Crude oil runs in shock, and coal price is strong to support production costs. In terms of spot goods, the supply in the domestic mainland market increased, and the port market continued to de stock mainly. The main price body of the domestic methanol market was stable, with some narrow adjustments, but the adjustment range was not large, and the mainstream transactions were stable.

The short-term domestic methanol market is mainly arranged.

According to the data of the business society, the recent market situation of chloroform continued to rise. As of October 18, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 4325 yuan/ton, up 6.13% from 4075 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Although the cost is lower after the festival, the price of trichloromethane is on the rise supported by demand.

Since October, the commencement of domestic methane chloride has remained at a high level, with little overall change. The supply of chloroform is basically stable, but due to domestic demand and the export order of a factory in Shandong, the inventory of chloroform in the region is tight.

Since October, the spot price of methanol has declined significantly, and the cost support of chloroform has weakened. According to the business community, as of October 18, the spot price of methanol was 2800 yuan/ton, down 7.05% from 3012 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the peak in the cycle was 3246 yuan/ton.

On the one hand, the construction of downstream refrigerant, pharmaceutical and other industries is generally stable; On the other hand, Jinjiuyinshi printing and dyeing, ink and paint and other industries started to improve, and the demand was supported by chloroform. In addition, the export order of chloroform of an enterprise in Shandong Province was affected, and the supply of goods in the region continued to be tight, pushing up the price of chloroform.

Analysts of methane chloride data from the business community believe that, on the one hand, the cost of supply easing is lower, which has a negative impact on chloroform; On the other hand, the downstream demand of increased exports just needs to be supported, and the support for chloroform continues to be excessive. Under the long and short game, it is expected that the rising rate of chloroform market will gradually decrease in the later period.

The domestic bisphenol A market continued to decline in the opening of the new week. As the price dropped significantly at the end of the auction in the afternoon, the market discussion atmosphere became more and more cold. The mainstream offer was 13200-13300 yuan/ton, which was 500 yuan/ton lower than last weekend. If there was a real price in the East China market, it could still be discussed. With the stable raw materials, bisphenol A fell again, and the profit narrowed again, which was expected to be about 900 yuan/ton, the two downstream epoxy resin/PC also showed a significant downward trend, Spot trading on the market is cold, and the current market is hardly favorable. It is expected that BPA will continue to fall today.

The offer of bisphenol A in domestic mainstream market as of the last trading day:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 13200., – 500

Shandong Province, 13300., – 500

After the festival, the domestic cobalt price rose weakly

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 17, the cobalt price was 356100 yuan/ton, up 2.83% from 346300 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. After the festival, enterprises increased their stock replenishment, the cobalt price stabilized after a small increase, the domestic cobalt market demand fell back, the international cobalt price fell in shock, which was bad for the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price stabilized after a small increase.

New energy vehicle market

According to the data of China Automobile Association, in September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 755000 and 708000, up 1.1 times and 93.9% year on year, respectively, with a market share of 27.1%. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 4.717 million and 4.567 million, up 1.2 times and 1.1 times respectively year on year, with a market share of 23.5%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy enterprises increased significantly. The export of new energy vehicles was 50000, down 40.3% month on month and more than doubled year on year. Under the continuous effect of the policy of stabilizing the economy and promoting consumption, the production and sales of automobiles in the fourth quarter will continue to maintain a rapid growth, new energy automobiles and automobile exports will continue to enjoy a good momentum of development, the growth of new energy automobiles will exceed expectations, and the demand for cobalt will increase.

MB cobalt price fell in October

It can be seen from the MB cobalt price trend chart that the MB cobalt price in October failed to continue the rising trend in September. After the festival, the MB cobalt price fell slightly, the international cobalt market fell, the domestic cobalt market was negative, and the support for the rise of the cobalt market weakened.

Future outlook

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of the business community, believes that the sales of new energy vehicles have risen significantly, and the expectation of a warmer demand in the cobalt market has increased. The cobalt market has some support for growth, but the international cobalt price has fallen, and the support for the rise in the cobalt market has weakened. In general, the upward momentum of the cobalt market still exists, but the continuous rise of the cobalt price is not supported enough. It is expected that the cobalt price will stabilize in the future.