1、 Price trend
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According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the price of toluene weakened this week. The price was 7790 yuan/ton on October 14 and 7690 yuan/ton on Friday (October 21), down 1.28% from last week; It was up 11.77% year on year.
2、 Analysis and review
In the early stage, the supply of toluene increased due to the inflow of toluene from Yatong Petrochemical, Qirun Petrochemical and Xinhai Petrochemical into the market. Since the beginning of October, the demand for downstream chemical products has remained just in demand, the terminal gasoline has continued to fall, the demand is weak, the pressure on supply and demand has increased, and the pressure on toluene has declined.
In terms of external markets, the price of toluene in Asia fell in shock this week. On Thursday (October 20), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $959/ton, a year-on-year drop of $20/ton, or 2.04%.
In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell into a deadlock this week. Under the expectation of multi country interest rate increase, economic recession worries continue to depress the crude oil market; However, supported by the sharp decline of US crude oil inventory and OPEC+production reduction in the week, oil prices rose and fell. As of October 21, Brent price this week rose by 1.87 dollars/barrel, or 2.04%, compared with last week; WTI fell 0.56 USD/barrel, down 0.65%.
Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China continued to rise this week. On October 14, the price was 25033 yuan/ton, and on October 21, the price was 26833 yuan/ton, up 7.19% from last week and 79.49% from the same period last year.
In terms of PX, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On October 14, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, and on October 21, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and up 27.4% from the same period last year.
In terms of gasoline, gasoline rebounded after falling this week. On October 14, the price was 8420 yuan/ton, and on October 21, the price was 8303 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from last week and 5.19% from the same period last year.
3、 Future market forecast
In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market continued the long short game. Positive, OPEC+production reduction, European winter energy supply shortage. Bad news: European and American interest rate hikes are expected, and the market’s worries about economic recession continue to weigh on the crude oil market. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
Most of September is the peak demand season, while the downstream demand of toluene is poor at present. In the short term, toluene continues its weak trend and the price rebound is blocked. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.
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