According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market fluctuated and adjusted weakly in December. The average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 7126 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.70% from the beginning of the month.

 

From a cost perspective, the OPEC+meeting held on December 5th in the crude oil market decided to postpone the crude oil production reduction measures until the end of the first quarter of 2025. As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, driven by the rising demand for heating oil, global crude oil demand enters the peak season, and EIA commercial crude oil inventories continue to decline. According to EIA forecast data, there will be a global supply gap for crude oil before the end of the first quarter of 2025, with seasonal increases in crude oil demand and a continued decline in inventory, which will drive up oil prices. As of December 27th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.60 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.17 per barrel.

 

From the end of November to the beginning of December, the PTA operating rate rose to over 90%, reaching the highest level since the beginning of this year. According to statistics, the cumulative production of PTA in China reached 65.06 million tons in the first 11 months, an increase of 7.9 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.8%. Entering December, although some facilities have undergone maintenance, they have also been restarted one after another. As of now, the PTA industry’s operating rate is around 86%, which has increased the expectation of loose supply. Moreover, the social inventory is around 4.1 million tons, and PTA will continue to accumulate inventory. In terms of price, the domestic PTA spot market showed a volatile adjustment in December. As of December 27th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4759 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% from the beginning of the month.

 

On the demand side, as the price of polyester staple fibers slowly declines, some downstream yarn factories have a bottom fishing mentality, but overall demand is poor and the purchasing atmosphere is cautious. The off-season for textile demand continues, and many consider early holidays. Downstream yarn factories have reduced their demand for polyester staple fibers. The terminal weaving factory has a strong sentiment of recovering funds at the end of the year, and winter orders are coming to an end. Although some spring and summer sample orders have been issued recently, the overall order quantity is limited, and there is little positive demand expectation. The operating rate of the weaving machine industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has declined to below 67%.

 

Business analysts believe that PTA’s newly invested facilities are gradually stabilizing, and domestic supply continues to increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, maintenance plans for polyester staple fiber factories are gradually being introduced, and it is expected that supply will shrink, but demand still faces the risk of seasonal decline. Overall, due to limited cost support and weakened supply and demand structure, it is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers will decline.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market showed a fluctuating adjustment in December. As of December 27th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4767 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% from the beginning of the month.

 

From the end of November to the beginning of December, the PTA operating rate rose to over 90%, reaching the highest level since the beginning of this year. According to statistics, the cumulative production of PTA in China reached 65.06 million tons in the first 11 months, an increase of 7.9 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.8%. Entering December, although some facilities have undergone maintenance, they have also been restarted one after another. As of now, the PTA industry’s operating rate is around 86%, which has increased the expectation of loose supply. Moreover, the social inventory is around 4.1 million tons, and PTA will continue to accumulate inventory.

 

The OPEC+meeting held on December 5th decided to postpone the crude oil production reduction measures until the end of the first quarter of 2025. As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, driven by the rising demand for heating oil, global crude oil demand enters the peak season, and EIA commercial crude oil inventories continue to decline. According to EIA forecast data, there will be a global supply gap for crude oil before the end of the first quarter of 2025, with seasonal increases in crude oil demand and a continued decline in inventory, which will drive up oil prices. As of December 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.62 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.26 per barrel.

 

Since December, the downstream polyester production rate has dropped to below 87%, mainly due to the stable production rates of bottle flakes, long fibers, and short fibers. In terms of inventory, both long and short fibers are in a destocking state, and the inventory pressure is not significant. Although the inventory of short fibers is relatively high, the sustainability of destocking is good, which maintains the essential demand for raw material procurement. The terminal weaving factory has a strong sentiment of recovering funds at the end of the year, and winter orders are coming to an end. Although some spring and summer sample orders have been issued recently, the overall order quantity is limited, and there is little positive demand expectation.

 

Business analysts believe that PTA’s newly invested facilities are gradually stabilizing, and domestic supply continues to increase. The operating rate of weaving machines continues to decline to around 65%, indicating that the operating rate of polyester still faces the risk of seasonal decline. The supply-demand contradiction will further deteriorate, and it is expected that PTA prices will be weakly adjusted.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6660 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 6630 yuan/ton on December 26th. The price of thermal phosphoric acid in China has dropped by 0.45% this month.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6983 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 6983 yuan/ton on December 26th. The price of wet process phosphoric acid in China has remained stable this month.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

In the first half of December, the price of hot process phosphoric acid rose slightly and then remained stable, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid remained stable. The supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are balanced, with no significant fluctuations at present. Downstream on-demand procurement leads to a sluggish market transaction atmosphere. In the second half of December, the price of hot process phosphoric acid fell weakly, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid fluctuated slightly. The raw material yellow phosphorus market has weakened, cost support has weakened, and the price of thermal phosphoric acid has been lowered. Supported by downstream demand, the wet process phosphoric acid market remains strong. As of December 26th, the ex factory price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-6850 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 6400-6700 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 6900-7150 yuan/ton.

 

Raw material yellow phosphorus market. This month, the market price of yellow phosphorus has weakened and fallen. Downstream procurement is cautious, resulting in a decrease in new orders in the market. This month, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has declined, and the market supply has decreased. At the end of the month, the market stopped falling and rose. Expected short-term consolidation of domestic yellow phosphorus prices.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been running steadily in recent days. At present, the raw material yellow phosphorus market is pushing up, but the upward space is limited. The phosphoric acid market is mainly wait-and-see, with flat market trading. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will stabilize and operate in the short term.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 18th to 25th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2625 yuan/ton to 2740 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.38% during the period, a month on month increase of 7.03%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.67%. The domestic methanol market continues to rise, with some areas experiencing rainy and snowy weather, leading to an increase in shipping costs. Due to the expected reduction in imported supply and the anticipated shutdown of the Southwest Gas Head Methanol Plant, there is a expectation for a decrease in port replenishment and inventory. In addition, the port methanol inventory has entered the destocking channel, and the market has a strong willingness to hold onto the goods. As a result, the port methanol price continues to rise.

 

As of the close on December 25th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2501, opened at 2662 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2683 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2642 yuan/ton. It closed at 2653 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, with an increase of 0.45%. The trading volume was 927774 lots, and the position was 866142 lots, with a daily increase of -2871.

 

In terms of cost, most coal mines in the current region are operating normally, and the overall coal supply level remains stable. It is difficult for terminals to release large-scale demand, and the current market performance is poor. Some coal mines have low online bidding premiums, and there are still unsold sections, resulting in a relatively sluggish trading atmosphere. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

 

On the demand side, downstream MTBE: MTBE demand is increasing; Downstream acetic acid: Increased demand for acetic acid; Downstream chloride: The demand for chloride does not fluctuate significantly; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde plant, but attention should be paid to environmental warning situations in various regions; Downstream dimethyl ether: There is currently no plan to shut down the dimethyl ether plant, and demand fluctuations are not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, influenced by favorable factors on the methanol demand side.

 

On the supply side, the overall device loss exceeds the recovery amount, and the capacity utilization rate decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

 

In terms of external markets, as of the close of December 24th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 346.00-347.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 123.50-124.50 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 438.00-439.00 euros/ton.

 

The future forecast shows that the supply of goods will continue to be abundant, and there will be little change in traditional downstream demand. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience range fluctuations.

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This week, the acrylic acid market has indeed shown a strong upward trend and continuous price increases, mainly due to the tight domestic supply of acrylic acid.

 

1、 Price trend of acrylic acid market

 

According to the latest market price data, the average price of acrylic acid in the mainstream market across the country has shown an upward trend in recent times. As of December 24, 2024, the price was 7150 yuan/ton, showing a significant increase compared to previous days. This upward trend corresponds to the strong operation of the acrylic acid market this week, indicating that the market supply and demand relationship is still tight, leading to price increases.

 

2、 Analysis of Acrylic Acid Supply Surface

 

1. Device maintenance and load reduction: The operating level of the acrylic acid industry remained at around 70% this week, a decrease from the previous week. This is mainly due to some acrylic acid units undergoing maintenance or load reduction production.

 

2. Increased concentration of production capacity: In recent years, the production capacity of China’s acrylic acid industry has continued to expand, but market competition has also intensified. With the increasing concentration of industry production capacity and the improvement of upstream and downstream supporting facilities in the industrial chain, some large enterprises such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical have reduced production costs and improved their profitability by optimizing their production capacity structure and controlling output. This also affects the supply of acrylic acid to a certain extent.

 

In addition, changes in the price of raw material propylene have also had a significant impact on the market price of acrylic acid. Propylene is the main raw material for the production of acrylic acid, and its price fluctuates due to the influence of the crude oil market and the supply and demand relationship in the petrochemical industry. When the price of propylene rises, the production cost of acrylic acid increases, which in turn drives up market prices. This cost driven price increase mechanism is particularly evident in the acrylic acid market.

 

3、 Analysis of Acrylic Acid Demand Surface

 

In terms of demand, the market demand for acrylic acid and its related products continues to increase, driving the rapid development of the industry. The downstream of the acrylic acid industry chain is widely used in fields such as coatings, adhesives, textiles, plastics, etc. The demand for acrylic acid and its derivatives in these industries directly determines the production volume and product structure of the acrylic acid industry. With the acceleration of industrialization and the development of emerging fields, the demand for acrylic acid market has shown a stable growth trend, which further exacerbates the tightness of market supply.

 

Despite the tight supply of acrylic acid, downstream demand remains stable overall. Downstream products of acrylic acid, such as acrylic esters, refined acid, and SAP, have overall followed the trend of acrylic acid. However, some downstream products, such as acrylic acid lotion and water reducer, are still mainly purchased in just need, without large-scale demand explosion. This has led to the acrylic acid market being able to maintain a strong operation despite tight supply, but with limited growth.

 

4、 Future prospects

 

Looking ahead to the future, it is expected that the acrylic acid market will continue to maintain a strong operating trend. On the one hand, there are still issues with the shutdown and maintenance of supply side equipment, and the supply of spot goods is becoming increasingly tight; On the other hand, the intention of companies to push up their offers is still strong, and the social inventory of spot goods is limited. Under the combined action of these factors, the price of acrylic acid market will continue to rise. However, it should also be noted that the slow follow-up speed of downstream demand and the sales pressure of holders may have a certain impact on the market. Therefore, the specific increase needs to pay attention to the increase in market demand and downstream industry orders.

 

In summary, the continued upward trend and strong operation of the acrylic acid market this week are mainly due to tight supply. The future market trend still needs to closely monitor changes in supply and demand relationships as well as the dynamics of upstream and downstream industrial chains.

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According to monitoring data from Business Society, since December 16th, the domestic adipic acid market has continued to decline weakly, with a decline of over 3%. On December 16th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8433 yuan/ton, and on December 23rd, the average market price of adipic acid was 8133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.56%.

 

Loose supply of adipic acid continues to weaken

 

In mid December, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline weakly. Mainly due to the weakening of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone, limited support for cost increases, and weak demand for adipic acid procurement from end-users. In addition to the oversupply in the adipic acid market and the combination of multiple negative factors, the adipic acid market continues to decline weakly, with the mainstream market price ranging from 8100-8400 yuan/ton, indicating a weak market trend.

 

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that negative pressure will continue to weaken the market for adipic acid in the short term.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 16th to 20th, MTBE prices fell from 5612 yuan/ton to 5487 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.23% during the period, a month on month increase of 1.39%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.99%. The trend of the domestic MTBE market is gradually weakening. Due to the end of the phased replenishment of inventory by terminal operators, their enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials has slowed down. At the same time, as various gasoline components have risen to a phase high point, compressing the mixed profit of operators, their resistance to high prices is increasing. The MTBE market is stable but weak in consolidation.

 

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the market’s belief that the Asian economy is expected to improve, coupled with the risk of new sanctions faced by some oil producing countries, and a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories in the United States. As of December 19th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.88 per barrel, a decrease of $0.51 or 0.7%.

 

On the demand side, international crude oil futures have fluctuated downwards, and the refined oil market has stopped rising and fallen. Refineries have lowered prices to promote sales, but the poor performance of terminal demand has suppressed the digestion of social unit inventory. The pace of mid to downstream merchants entering the market for procurement has slowed down, and market transactions are mainly small orders. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

 

Supply side: There are currently no new start-up and shutdown devices, and the overall fluctuation of resource supply is limited. The short-term impact on domestic MTBE supply is mixed.

 

As of the close on December 19th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $12.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $706.99-708.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $29/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $804.49-804.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $7.09 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $802.10-802.46 per ton (226.48-226.58 cents per gallon).

 

The future forecast shows weak supply and demand. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term.

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Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

 

Latest price on December 18th: 14960 yuan/ton

 

Analysis points: The titanium dioxide market had light trading on December 18th. Recently, the titanium concentrate market has maintained consolidation, and the sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized. Currently, the cost pressure on titanium dioxide enterprises remains, and manufacturers’ quotations are mostly firm. The demand for upstream and downstream factories is mainly driven by urgent procurement, with a general willingness to stock up before the holiday and insufficient performance. The market is deadlocked and mostly wait-and-see. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14000-15700 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13000-13200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

 

Prediction: The titanium dioxide market is expected to stabilize and operate in the short term.

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1、 Market price trend

 

1. Price increase:

 

Due to the dual effects of tight spot supply and increasing downstream demand, the price of acrylic acid in the market is showing an upward trend. The price of acrylic acid varies in different regions and manufacturers, but overall it shows an upward trend. As of December 17th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6900.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% compared to the beginning of this month (6862.50 yuan/ton).

 

2. Active market atmosphere:

 

With the rise in acrylic acid prices, the market atmosphere has become more active. Some downstream enterprises have begun to actively stock up to cope with potential supply shortages in the future.

 

2、 Demand side impact

 

1. Downstream demand growth:

 

With the economic recovery and the increase of industrial production activities, the demand for acrylic acid in downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, textile auxiliaries, and water treatment agents is gradually increasing.

 

The growth of downstream demand has further driven up the price of acrylic acid in the market.

 

2. Inventory management strategy:

 

Some downstream enterprises may adopt a wait-and-see attitude, replenishing as needed instead of stockpiling in large quantities, which to some extent exacerbates the situation of tight spot supply.

 

3、 Supply side impact

 

1. Limited production capacity:

 

Due to tight raw material supply, equipment maintenance, increased environmental requirements, or uneven distribution of production capacity, some acrylic acid production enterprises have limited production capacity and reduced the supply of acrylic acid in the market.

 

For example, the equipment maintenance or load reduction operation of some major acrylic acid production enterprises directly reduces the supply of spot goods, exacerbating the situation of tight supply.

 

2. Uncertainty of new production capacity:

 

Although new production capacity is about to be put into operation, there is uncertainty in the progress of production and effective output, which makes market participants more cautious in evaluating supply.

 

4、 Future prospects

 

1. Supply shortage may continue:

 

Considering the expected reduction in overseas supply and the high concentration of domestic production capacity distribution, the tight supply situation in the acrylic acid market may continue for some time. Therefore, in the foreseeable future, the market price of acrylic acid may continue to operate at a high level.

 

2. Price fluctuations may increase:

 

With the intensification of market supply and demand contradictions and the continuous rise in raw material costs, the price fluctuations in the acrylic acid market may further increase. Investors and downstream enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and price changes in order to adjust their investment strategies and procurement plans in a timely manner.

 

In summary, the tight supply of spot goods is one of the main reasons for the rise in the price of acrylic acid in the market. The future price trend of the acrylic acid market will depend on the combined effects of various factors such as supply, demand, and market competition. Therefore, investors and related enterprises should closely monitor market dynamics and relevant information to develop reasonable investment strategies and business plans.

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This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 16th, the price of isooctanol was 8200 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.65% compared to the price of 8600 yuan/ton on December 9th. This week, the equipment production of isooctanol enterprises remained stable at a high level, with sufficient supply of isooctanol and cold demand, resulting in oversupply and fluctuating prices of isooctanol.

 

Adequate supply of isooctanol this week

 

This week, isooctanol enterprises started production at a high level and remained stable. In addition, new octanol production capacity was gradually put into operation in December, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol supply in December. The downstream demand increment is not as significant as the increment of octanol, and there is an oversupply of isooctanol, which increases the downward pressure on isooctanol and causes its price to fluctuate and fall.

 

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuated and fell this week

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 16th, the DOP price was 8576.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.83% compared to the DOP price of 8826.25 yuan/ton on December 9th. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, the profit margin of plasticizer DOP is high, and the enthusiasm of plasticizer enterprises to start production is high. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises is high, and plasticizers have certain positive support for the demand for isooctanol. However, downstream inventory replenishment at low prices has limited support for the demand for isooctanol.

 

Future expectations

 

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, the equipment production of isooctanol enterprises has stabilized this week, and with the addition of new production capacity, the supply of isooctanol is sufficient, increasing the downward pressure on isooctanol; This week, downstream plasticizer manufacturers have seen an increase in production, but many of them are restocking at low prices, resulting in average demand for isooctanol and insufficient support for its upward trend. In the future, there will be an oversupply of isooctanol with average demand, and it is expected that the price of isooctanol will remain weak and consolidate.

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