According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 16th to 20th, MTBE prices fell from 5612 yuan/ton to 5487 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.23% during the period, a month on month increase of 1.39%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.99%. The trend of the domestic MTBE market is gradually weakening. Due to the end of the phased replenishment of inventory by terminal operators, their enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials has slowed down. At the same time, as various gasoline components have risen to a phase high point, compressing the mixed profit of operators, their resistance to high prices is increasing. The MTBE market is stable but weak in consolidation.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the market’s belief that the Asian economy is expected to improve, coupled with the risk of new sanctions faced by some oil producing countries, and a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories in the United States. As of December 19th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.88 per barrel, a decrease of $0.51 or 0.7%.

On the demand side, international crude oil futures have fluctuated downwards, and the refined oil market has stopped rising and fallen. Refineries have lowered prices to promote sales, but the poor performance of terminal demand has suppressed the digestion of social unit inventory. The pace of mid to downstream merchants entering the market for procurement has slowed down, and market transactions are mainly small orders. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: There are currently no new start-up and shutdown devices, and the overall fluctuation of resource supply is limited. The short-term impact on domestic MTBE supply is mixed.

As of the close on December 19th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $12.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $706.99-708.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $29/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $804.49-804.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $7.09 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $802.10-802.46 per ton (226.48-226.58 cents per gallon).

The future forecast shows weak supply and demand. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term.