According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on August 29 was 37.66, the same as yesterday, down 62.34% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 38.05% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in the fourth week of August 2021

According to the data monitoring of business society, in the fourth week of August 2021, domestic natural rubber was first up and then down, and decreased continuously from Wednesday to Friday, with a large range: the mainstream reported 12987.5 yuan / ton on the 23rd and 12700 yuan / ton on the 29th, a decrease of 2.21%. In the second half of the month, the trend of natural rubber was downward, especially near the end of the month. It fell for several days. So far, the decline has been nearly 5%, and it has fallen by more than 600 yuan / ton in the first half of the month.

From the perspective of new rubber output: at present, the main natural rubber producing areas are in the peak production season. Under the severe epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, rubber producing countries are greatly affected by prevention and control measures, labor and transportation, especially the recent increase in rainfall; On the other hand, the shortage of rubber shipping containers cannot be solved, the shipping situation is severe and the transportation cost is high. Overall, the rubber supply side is greatly hindered by the epidemic situation and weather.

From the downstream demand:

From the situation of China’s tire manufacturers, statistics show that as of August 19, the operating rate of semi steel tire sample manufacturers was 61.09%, up 0.81% month on month and down 6.2% year-on-year; The operating rate of all steel tire sample manufacturers was 63.93%, down 1.95% month on month and 9.76% year-on-year. According to the heavy news this week, on August 26, the central ecological and environmental protection supervision team was stationed in Jilin, Shandong, Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan provinces, which is expected to end on September 26. One month’s environmental protection inspector will conduct an all-round inspection on high pollution industries including tire enterprises, including tire factory pollution, facilities and so on. In the long run, it will contribute to the sound development of the tire industry. In the short term, it is inevitable that the operating rate of tire enterprises will be reduced. With the overall decline of tire matching, replacement market and overseas market sales data, tire enterprises have great inventory pressure, and there is no urgent demand for rubber procurement.

From the perspective of automobile data, according to the ten day report data of 11 key automobile enterprises in the industry, China Automobile Industry Association showed that in the first and middle of August 2021, the automobile production of 11 key enterprises completed 707000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 34.3%. Among them, the production of passenger cars decreased by 28.9% year-on-year; Commercial vehicle production decreased by 44.1% year-on-year. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics compiled by China Automobile Industry Association, from January to July 2021, the profit of automobile manufacturing industry maintained a rapid growth year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to fall compared with the first half of the year. From January to July 2021, the automobile manufacturing industry realized a total profit of 322.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, a decrease of 25.5 percentage points over the first half of the year, accounting for 6.5% of the total profits realized by industrial enterprises above Designated Size, a decrease compared with the first half of the year.

In terms of inventory, the total inventory of the exchange in the previous period was 219592 tons (+ 8250 tons) as of August 20, the quantity of futures warehouse receipts was 188780 tons (+ 2400 tons), and the domestic delivery inventory increased. China’s domestic arrival volume is limited. The natural rubber in Qingdao port is still in the state of de stocking, and the natural rubber inventory is accelerated.

From the perspective of import and export: affected by the global epidemic and the continuous rise of freight, the shipping problem will continue to affect China’s tire export, especially in the next traditional transportation peak season. The recent arrival volume has been affected. Data show that Thailand’s natural rubber exports increased in July, but exports to China shrank month on month, and overseas demand was stronger than China.

As for the future market, the business community believes that from a macro perspective, the continuous rise of international crude oil has strengthened the support for the commodity market. In terms of output, the epidemic and rainfall have a sustained impact on the supply side. In terms of transportation, the cost of sea freight has increased greatly, the transportation route has been greatly affected by the epidemic control, China’s rubber import has decreased significantly, and the domestic social inventory has continued to decline at a new low. The low supply, import and export volume has given strong support to natural rubber, which has lasted for some time. In terms of demand, due to the shortage of chips and consumer demand, the output of multinational vehicles has decreased significantly, especially the orders are less than the seasonal increment expectations, the finished product inventory pressure is high, and the manufacturers’ demand for tires has declined. Overall, natural rubber will still give priority to the range shock trend.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market was generally strong at the end of August, and the spot prices of various brands increased by a narrow margin. As of August 27, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8383.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.18% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and an increase of 5.01% year-on-year.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene price fluctuated strongly this week, and callback after rising within the week. The mainstream price in Shandong market was more than 7750 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.33%. In terms of international crude oil, it opened low and went high, the cost support was strengthened, and there was a certain rising market for propylene. However, the feedback on demand is general, and the purchaser generally maintains rigid demand. The industry inventory is stable and controllable, and there is an expectation of supply rise in the later stage. Propylene is expected to be weak in the future.

The upstream propylene price fluctuated and rose, and the recent PP cost side support was strong. In terms of operating rate, there has been the resumption of some production lines recently, and the overall load of the industry is 80-90%, a slight increase over last week. As the new capacity in the early stage has not been shipped in large quantities, the supply increment is not obvious. The demand for PP wire drawing materials was followed up steadily. It was heard that the digestion of finished product inventory by downstream enterprises hindered the stock preparation and replenishment operation, and the actual purchase operation was biased to just need to maintain production. The market momentum is general, there is a certain contradiction between supply and demand, the atmosphere in the floor is stalemate, and the spot price is difficult to rise.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of August 27, the spot price of domestic fiber PP fell. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8450 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.78% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and an increase of 6.74% year-on-year. The demand is generally stable, but the demand for epidemic prevention products is declining. It is heard that the main downstream spunbonded non-woven fabrics are affected by it, and it is more difficult to ship. The demand for end consumer goods has not seen a large amount, and the businesses have completed the task by giving away the profit order at the end of the month, resulting in a weak market.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market fell this week, and the spot price changed from rise to fall. As of August 27, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 9233.33 yuan / ton. At present, the impact of international health events is still large, and the demand for overseas epidemic prevention is high. Recently, the order volume of downstream meltblown cloth began to stabilize, the resistance to the rise of meltblown PP increased, and there was a make-up decline in the week. Due to the high market saturation of melt blown cloth products in the early stage in China, there are few devices still in production. The previous market warming has also cooled down, and the demand has dropped to a stable level. At present, the supply and demand in the market is relatively balanced, and it is expected that the price of melt blown PP may continue to fluctuate.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business agency believe that the domestic polypropylene market was generally weak and volatile at the end of August, and the spot price fell locally. The demand of terminal enterprises continues to be insufficient. Although it is about to enter the traditional peak season, there is no hoarding operation in the short term. The load of PP production enterprises is relatively stable, and the supply end is equally stable. The upstream propylene market fluctuated and rose, but the cost side support of coal to PP was poor. The merchant’s offer remains strong, and the terminal demand has not been in large quantity. It is expected that the PP price may fall into a weak consolidation market in the short term.

Orthobenzene market remained stable

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of adjacent benzene is stable this week, and the market of adjacent benzene is weak and stable temporarily. The listing price of orthobenzene this week was 6300 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the listing price of 6300 yuan / ton last week, with a year-on-year increase of 43.18%.

Weak operation of raw material prices

According to the data test of business society, the mixed xylene price fell first and then rose this week. The mixed xylene market was weak. The crude oil price stopped falling this week and rebounded sharply. The cost of mixed xylene rose, the demand for mixed xylene was weak, and the mixed xylene price wanted to rise in the future. The overall cost of ortho benzene stopped falling, the driving force for the rise of ortho benzene increased, and the downward pressure on ortho benzene remained in the future.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, an adjacent xylene data analyst at business society, believes that the price of mixed xylene fell first and then rose this week, and rebounded in the decline of mixed xylene market. Affected by the sharp rise of crude oil, the cost of mixed xylene rose this week and rebounded in the decline of mixed xylene market, which stimulated the downstream adjacent benzene to a certain extent, and the driving force for the rise of adjacent benzene increased. Generally speaking, the cost of orthobenzene is rising, the downstream demand is still weak, and the orthobenzene market is weak, but orthobenzene has a certain upward momentum.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 22, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 15633 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 15 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 14700 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 933 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.35% during the week.

In early August, the overall market of n-butanol in Shandong fell. After entering the late stage, the market of n-butanol in Shandong began to pick up on the 16th, and the offer price of n-butanol factories began to rise steadily. The main support for the price rise came from the low inventory of n-butanol factories, the tight supply, the improvement of the enthusiasm for replenishment in the downstream, the improvement of the market atmosphere, and the focus of n-butanol transactions continued to move upward. As of the 22nd, in a week, At present, the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in Shandong is around 15500-15700 yuan / ton, and the average price is 15633 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.35% in seven days compared with the price on the 16th.

Upstream, since August, the domestic propylene oxide market has shown an upward trend as a whole. Until August 20, the market has declined. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 20, the reference average price of domestic propylene oxide was 16825 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day, and increased by 525 yuan / ton compared with the price on August 1 (16300 yuan / ton), The increase was 3.22%.

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the inventory level of n-butanol plant is declining and the downstream just needs to be purchased. Therefore, the analysts of business society think that in the short term, the high-level operation of n-butanol market in Shandong is the main trend.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of August 24, the average price of pet water bottle manufacturers was 7200.00 yuan / ton. The overall pet market was weak and volatile, and the price decreased slightly. Compared with the same period last month, the price increased by 0.42%, and compared with the same period last week, the price decreased by 1.37%, maintaining a weak operation in the short term.

From July to August, the pet market price fluctuated weakly and the price decreased slightly. At present, the mainstream quotation range is 7200 yuan / ton. At the beginning of August, the pet market price fluctuated upward and the price rose. Since mid August, the price has continued to operate weakly and fluctuated in a narrow range. The price at the beginning of August was 7380 yuan / ton, and at the end of August, the price was 7200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 180 yuan / ton. The upstream just needs to purchase, and the gas is insufficient, The transaction atmosphere was flat, the main manufacturers shipped slowly, the cost support was weak, the price of upstream raw materials fell, and pet maintained the early trend in the short term.

The upstream PTA market is weak. Since mid August, the spot market has shown a slight weakening trend. As of August 23, the average market price is 4965 yuan / ton, and the cost side oil price is weak, weakening the support for PTA. In terms of supply, the 3.3 million tons of Yisheng new material is planned to increase to 60% in the near future. There is a possibility of a slight increase at the PTA supply end, the downstream demand performance is poor, and the negative factors at both ends of supply and demand appear. It is expected that the PTA price will remain weak in the later period.

The upstream ethylene glycol market is weak and volatile, the market price is reduced, the average spot price in East China is 5045 yuan / ton, the downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, the fundamentals are obviously weak, the mentality of market people is obviously empty, the trading atmosphere of the overall ethylene glycol market is cold, and the weak trend will be maintained in the short term.

Pet commodity index: on August 23, the pet commodity index was 54.14, down 0.75 points from yesterday, down 47.82% from the highest point 103.76 in the cycle (September 22, 2011), and up 47.96% from the lowest point 36.59 on November 10, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Pet analysts of business society believe that pet prices are mainly weak, and the fluctuation range is limited（ To learn more about the latest market trends, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get information on goods, and grasp the price of commodities.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (August 23): 5433.33 yuan / ton

On August 23, the factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased by 116.66 yuan / ton, or 2.19%, and 99.02% year-on-year compared with the quotation on August 20. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost of calcium carbide supported well. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently, and the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has increased. At the same time, a new round of power rationing in Inner Mongolia began, and the output of calcium carbide decreased. The shortage of supply is the main reason for the rise of calcium carbide price.

In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 5500 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of baking soda was temporarily stable this week, and the average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 2083.33 yuan / ton. On August 20, the commodity index of baking soda was 138.27, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 56.64% from the lowest point of 88.27 on December 22, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2020-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is strong, and the demand in the downstream market is good in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 2000-2200 yuan, and the downstream demand is OK. It is expected that the price will be stable in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 2000-2250 yuan / ton, and the downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be strong in the later stage.

Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of business agency, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2100-2300 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 2200-2300 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is relatively strong, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 2100-2250 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the short-term high price of soda ash is dominated. Data show that the overall operating rate of soda ash in the week was 77.67%, up 6% month on month. During the week, the output of soda ash was 552800 tons, an increase of 42800 tons. Generally speaking, the price of soda ash in the later stage is relatively strong, and the operation is dominated.

Demand: in the downstream, the recent demand for baking soda from medicine, textile and food is acceptable, and the price of baking soda is strong in the near future. Business analysts believe that the price of soda upstream is strong, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. In the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food has continued to improve recently. In general, the price of baking soda is short-term or consolidation operation, and the specific demand in the downstream market.

DOP prices fell from high differences

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, DOP prices rose first and then fell this week. Since August 8, there have been large differences between long and short DOP prices, DOP prices have been adjusted in waves, and the overall DOP prices have fallen at a high level. As of August 19, the DOP price was 14900.00 yuan / ton, down 4.64% from 15625.00 yuan / ton on August 8. The cost of DOP raw materials has been divided between long and short, and the high price of DOP has dropped.

Long and short differences in raw material prices continued

It can be seen from the isooctanol price trend chart that there were large differences between long and short positions in the isooctanol market in August. The isooctanol price first fell, then rebounded, rose and then fell, the DOP cost decreased, and the DOP market profit was around the cost line. Recently, the equipment maintenance of isooctanol manufacturers still exists, the market supply is insufficient, the market is long and short, and the market rise and fall are quite different. However, the overall isooctanol units have been started one after another, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell slightly. Overall, the cost of DOP decreased in the future, and there was great downward pressure on DOP.

The downstream market rebounded and warmed up

As can be seen from the PVC price trend chart, the PVC market rebounded and warmed up in August, the PVC price fluctuated slightly, and the downstream demand of DOP warmed up, but the overall demand was still cold, and the upward momentum of DOP increased.

Market overview and future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business agency, believes that the long and short differences in DOP raw material isooctanol market continue, the price of isooctanol fluctuates and falls, the cost of DOP decreases, and the downward pressure of DOP increases. The downstream PVC market recovered slightly, which was good for the DOP market, but the overall DOP demand was still average, and the upward momentum of DOP was limited. In the future, the upward momentum of DOP market still exists, and the downward pressure increases. It is expected that DOP price will fluctuate slightly.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of August 18, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 563 yuan / ton, up 13 yuan / ton or 2.42% from August 1 (the reference average price of phosphorus ore was 550 yuan / ton); Compared with the price on July 1 (the reference average price of phosphate rock is 530 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 33 yuan / ton, or 6.29%.

After several days of high and stable operation, the domestic phosphate rock market is close to the top again

The phosphorus ore market, which has been operating at a high level for nearly a month, moved closer to the high end again this week. Supported by the tight supply of phosphorus ore market, on August 16, some mining enterprises in Guizhou and Guangxi slightly increased the market price of medium and high-end phosphorus ore, including 30% phosphorus ore by 20-40 yuan / ton and 28% phosphorus ore by 10-30 yuan / ton. After adjustment, the vehicle plate price of 30% phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 500-550 yuan / ton, The truck price of 28% grade phosphate rock is around 470-490 yuan / ton. In Guangxi, the factory price of 30% grade phosphate rock is around 510-560 yuan / ton, and the factory price of 28% grade phosphate rock is around 480-500 yuan / ton. The quotation of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship board of mining enterprises in Hubei is around 570 yuan / ton.

Downstream yellow phosphorus, in August, the domestic yellow phosphorus Market as a whole showed a downward trend. At present, the yellow phosphorus market is dominated by weak operation. According to the monitoring data of business society, as of August 16, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 24666 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.84% compared with August 1 (27666 yuan / ton).

For downstream phosphoric acid, at present, the phosphoric acid market continues to operate at a high and stable level. Most enterprises with high early Quotation have lowered their prices, and some enterprises have made up a slight increase. However, most enterprises still implement the early quotation and have not made adjustments yet, so the market wait-and-see mood remains unchanged. At present, the atmosphere of high price transaction in the phosphoric acid market is light, coupled with poor logistics in some areas, shipment pressure, and the price is reduced slightly, but the cost support is still in, so the willingness to fall deeply is not strong. According to the monitoring of the business community, the current quotation in Sichuan is 6700-7300 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is about 7500 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is about 7000-8000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is about 7300-7600 yuan / ton, and that in Yunnan is about 7300 yuan / ton.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the transaction price of phosphorus ore market is getting closer to the high end, and the market price has also risen to the high point. Under the high price, the downstream demand may be weak. Therefore, phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the probability of continuous rise of China’s phosphorus ore market is small, and most of them will operate stably and firmly at the high level.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of August 17, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 15400.00 yuan / ton. The DMF price continued to operate at a high level, and the DMF manufacturers’ high prices frequently and continued to rise. Compared with the same period last week (8.10-8.17), the DMF price increased by 9.22%, 23.69% compared with the same period last month, and the monthly increase reached nearly 3000 yuan / ton. At present, the rising trend continues to ferment, It is expected to continue the upward trend in the short term（ The prices of the following products are sorted out and obtained by the business agency for reference only)

The domestic DMF market continues to rise, and the price rising momentum remains unabated. Some factories in Henan are shut down for maintenance, and the supply of spot goods is tight. Manufacturers have raised prices one after another. At present, the mainstream price range is about 15400 yuan / ton. The downstream just needs to purchase, so they are cautious and wait-and-see. The market transaction atmosphere is OK. The manufacturers’ mentality continues to improve, actively ship, the number of new orders increases slowly, and contract customers arrange orders for delivery, Most manufacturers are in urgent need of inventory and ship at a high price. The price trend of upstream methanol is strong, and the quotation has increased slightly. The quotation of Shandong Mingshui methanol is 2570 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Shandong alliance methanol is stable to 2570 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price range is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, which will maintain a steady rise in the short term.

DMF commodity index: on August 16, the DMF commodity index was 251.23, an increase of 9.84 points over yesterday, a record high in the cycle, an increase of 273.80% over the lowest point of 67.21 on February 21, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business agency believe that DMF continues to have a strong trend and the price fluctuates（ For more information on the latest industry chain, welcome to pay attention to official account of business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp commodity price.