According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 1st to 5th, the domestic BDO price remained at 7385 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.77% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.98%. The domestic BDO market has little fluctuation, with continued trading of contract orders and a light atmosphere for spot negotiations. The game between supply and demand continues, making it difficult for the market to fluctuate.
In terms of supply and equipment, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, and the supply side support is weak. The favorable factors for BDO supply have weakened.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The overall domestic calcium carbide market is on the rise, with smooth shipments from production enterprises and a tight supply situation in the market. Raw material methanol: The methanol market has risen due to multiple factors, including reduced supply caused by poor operation of facilities in major factories in the northwest, orderly release of demand for olefins in mainland China, no significant pressure on manufacturers’ inventory, and positive market sentiment. As of 10:00 am on December 5th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2090 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol have both risen, and the cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG and TPU have seen a decline in production, while other downstream industries have remained relatively stable, resulting in a slight decrease in overall demand. At the same time, the weak market conditions in downstream industries have suppressed the bargaining sentiment towards raw materials and suppressed the trend of raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: Currently, the supply and demand game in the domestic BDO market continues, and the market center of gravity is difficult to fluctuate. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market has limited volatility.