Price trend

According to the bulk list data from Business Society, after the decline in the domestic PC market in May, spot prices of various brands fluctuated and fell. As of May 30th, the benchmark price for the mixed PC of Shengyishe was around 16450 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.50% compared to May 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the domestic bisphenol A market operated weakly in May. The upstream phenol market is volatile, with low demand and a weak atmosphere in the acetone market. The raw material of bisphenol A did not provide good support, with the decline concentrated in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, there was a narrow rebound, but the strength was insufficient, making it difficult to form effective cost support for PC.

In terms of supply: In May, the overall operating rate of domestic PCs remained stable with slight fluctuations, and the industry average operating rate decreased by about 4% to 72% compared to the previous month. The on-site supply of goods is relatively abundant, and the mentality of enterprises has weakened. The factory price has fluctuated and decreased to find a market equilibrium point. During the month, some companies had arrangements for maintenance of production lines, but Hengli Petrochemical’s new production capacity continued to be released, basically smoothing out the trend of supply and demand reduction. In the short term, the level of market supply pressure may remain, which will generally drag down PC prices.

In terms of demand: In May, PC consumption will continue to follow the previous weak pattern, with the main logic leaning towards maintaining production and digesting inventory for just in need. Downstream enterprises have seen a decline in load, reduced stocking enthusiasm, and a decrease in consumption. Buyers have some resistance to high priced sources, and the demand side has poor support for spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

After the decline in the PC market in May, it was sorted out. The upstream bisphenol A market is relatively weak, Poor support on the PC cost side. The domestic polymerization plant has experienced a narrow decline in load and limited changes in supply. On the demand side, there is a downward trend in consumption, with weak trading on the market, and the market is about to enter the off-season. It is expected that the PC market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the average price of isobutanol for enterprises was 8175.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.83% compared to May 1st (the reference price of isobutanol was 7950 yuan/ton).

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that the isobutanol market trend in May was upward. After the holiday, the price center of raw material propylene shifted upwards, with the main increase in raw material isobutyraldehyde fluctuating. The cost support was still acceptable, and the market spot supply was tight. In addition, the related product n-butanol continued to rise after the holiday. With multiple supports, the market price of isobutyraldehyde steadily increased in the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, factories did not push up prices, but their demand performance was average. They were slightly cautious about high priced raw materials, and small orders followed closely. The market transactions were stable and orderly. As the end of the month approached, supply side inventory was low, and the strong operation of related products such as n-butanol boosted the market, causing the isobutanol market to rise again.

Cost side:

Isobutyraldehyde: According to the monitoring chart of Business Society data, the price of raw material isobutyraldehyde increased significantly in May, providing stronger support for the isobutanol market.

Propylene: In May, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and stabilized. On May 28th, the reference price of propylene was 6824.60, an increase of 0.35% compared to May 1st (6800.60), providing moderate support for the isobutanol market.

Related product n-butanol:

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that the overall trend of n-butanol market in Shandong, China in May was upward. The price changes of n-butanol had a significant impact on the isobutanol market, and May provided strong support for the rise of isobutanol market.

Future prospects:

The isobutanol analyst from Business Society believes that the current prices of raw materials propylene and isobutyraldehyde are relatively strong, and short-term cost support may still exist. Supply side inventory is currently operating without pressure, and downstream inquiries and purchases are mainly in demand. It is expected that the isobutanol market will remain strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to changes in the prices of related products, n-butanol.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of ammonium sulfate in China was 813 yuan/ton on May 1st, and 848 yuan/ton on May 28th. The price of ammonium sulfate increased by 4.30% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate has steadily increased this month. After the May Day holiday, the demand for downstream compound fertilizer market increased, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement increased. The trading atmosphere in the ammonium sulfate market was good, and prices continued to rise. This month, urea prices have shown a positive trend, indirectly benefiting the ammonium sulfate market. The export market has not improved yet, and the focus of transactions is relatively weak. As of May 28th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 820 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 850-880 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from March 4, 2024 to May 20, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle has seen mixed ups and downs. Ammonium sulfate rose significantly in May, with the largest increase of 1.61% in the week of May 20th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate, the demand for downstream compound fertilizers is gradually weakening, and new orders in the market are limited. However, with the support of essential demand, the price of ammonium sulfate remains strong, and international demand needs to be released. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly experience high level consolidation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 20th to 27th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province dropped from 3632 yuan/ton to 3593 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06%, a month on month decrease of 2.37%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.70%. The weak operation of international crude oil has led to significant competition for refinery resources, putting pressure on the asphalt market. Some high priced resources still have expectations of making up for losses. In the short term, the downstream procurement intensity of terminal demand is generally limited, and the domestic asphalt market will maintain a weak adjustment in the short term.

On the supply side, in terms of major production enterprises, Qilu Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil from May 19th to 21st, while Shandong Shengxing maintained its conversion status. However, Dongming Petrochemical resumed asphalt production on May 17th, and the production in Shandong region slightly decreased. The increase in daily production of Jinling Petrochemical has significantly increased production, and the resumption of asphalt production in Xinhai, Jiangsu at the end of the month has led to a slight increase in the operating rate in the Jiangsu region. Cangzhou Xingaoyuan Plant has stopped producing asphalt, resulting in a slight decrease in supply in Hebei region. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month. In April 2024, the import volume of asphalt was 365000 tons, which was+23.6% compared to the previous month and+10.8% year-on-year. The import volume has increased, and there is a negative impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have overall declined, with the main bearish factors being the delayed expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, ongoing market concerns about the economic and demand outlook, and an increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. As of May 24th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $81.84 per barrel.

On the demand side, some provinces have seen a decrease in actual demand due to environmental inspections. Currently, the lack of terminal demand is the main factor restricting the price decline.

As of the close of May 27th, the petroleum asphalt futures market closed down. The main asphalt contract 2409 opened at 3671 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3695 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3667 yuan/ton. It closed at 3671 yuan/ton at the end of the day, a decrease of 1% from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 0.03%. The trading volume was 161889 lots, and the position was 220869 lots, with a daily increase of 807.

In the future market forecast, international crude oil is expected to operate weakly, with weakened support for asphalt costs and increased market wait-and-see expectations. Some refineries and traders are more proactive in shipping, and market prices are stable but declining. On the demand side, rainy weather has a slight obstacle to hard demand, but actual demand remains relatively flat. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will remain weak in the short term.

Stable operation of ethylene oxide prices in May 2024

The price of ethylene oxide remained stable this week. According to data from Business Society, as of May 24th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43% compared to the average price of 7000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; Compared to the beginning of the year, the average market price was 6400 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.81%.

Loose prices of some downstream products

At present, the industrial chain is in a state of poor cost oriented transmission. After the upstream raw material ethylene price rose, it remained at a relatively high level, but some downstream product prices slightly fell. Coupled with the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer prices remaining stable, the demand for ethylene oxide is generally supported.

Fallback logic

The early maintenance equipment has started to resume production, and there has been a slight increase in supply pressure. Coupled with the unsatisfactory transmission of downstream product prices, the price of ethylene oxide has begun to decline. However, the cost support brought by the raw material side remains, and it is expected that there is not much room for price decline in the short term, with short-term fluctuations being mainly weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 16th to 23rd, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province dropped from 3655 yuan/ton to 3618 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02%, a month on month decrease of 1.63%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.76%. The domestic asphalt market is fluctuating and falling, international crude oil prices are weak and consolidating, and the asphalt fundamentals are biased towards bearish factors. Early maintenance and production equipment have gradually resumed, and the market supply has increased. However, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and actual delivery is average.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have fallen, with the main bearish factors being the delayed expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, continued market concerns about the economic and demand outlook, and an increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. As of May 22, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $81.90 per barrel, a decrease of $0.98 or 1.2%.

On the demand side, the trading atmosphere in the asphalt market is relatively light. With the improvement of weather, terminal demand has increased, but business inquiries are still the main focus, and transactions are still mainly in demand.

As of the close of May 23, the petroleum asphalt futures market closed down. The main asphalt contract 2409 opened at 3688 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3698 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3653 yuan/ton. It closed at 3669 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 15% from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 0.51%. The trading volume was 194635 lots, and the position was 224567 lots, with a daily increase of 12472.

In the future market forecast, crude oil is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with increased supply and slight differences in demand between the north and south. Asphalt analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic asphalt market will mainly consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

The price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 22nd, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 8525 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 8.95% compared to the isobutyraldehyde price of 7825 yuan/ton on May 13th; Compared to May 1st, the price of isobutyraldehyde increased by 11.44% to 7650 yuan/ton. This week, the price of isobutyraldehyde has surged, supported by downstream demand, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to ship. The price of isobutyraldehyde has stabilized after rising.

Strong consolidation of raw material propylene prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 22, the price of propylene was quoted at 6882.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94% compared to the volatile price of propylene at 6818.6 yuan/ton on May 15; Compared to the quotation of 6800.6 yuan/ton on May 1st, it has slightly increased by 1.21%. Crude oil prices have stopped falling and stabilized, with support from propylene costs and strong consolidation of propylene prices. Propylene units have restarted and increased, with sufficient supply of propylene and cautious downstream procurement. Propylene enterprises have generally sold their goods, while propylene prices have fluctuated and stabilized. Cost support still exists, while support for the rise of isobutyraldehyde remains.

Downstream favorable support

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 22, the price of new pentanediol was quoted at 10650 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.45% compared to the price of 10100 yuan/ton quoted on May 15. The quotation of neopentyl glycol enterprises has significantly increased, with strong cost support. The neopentyl glycol market is operating strongly, and the inventory of neopentyl glycol factories is low. Currently, orders are being scheduled until next month. The supply of goods on site is tight, and the inquiry atmosphere is strong. Traders are reluctant to sell spot goods, resulting in an increase in the price of neopentyl glycol in the market.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde industry analyst believes that in terms of cost, the strong consolidation of raw material propylene prices still supports the rise in isobutyraldehyde costs; In terms of supply and demand, the price of isobutyraldehyde has fluctuated and increased, the supply of isobutyraldehyde has tightened, and the price of neopentyl glycol has significantly increased. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and demand support for isobutyraldehyde is limited. In the future, cost support still exists, supply and demand are tight, and isobutyraldehyde enterprises are generally willing to raise prices. It is expected that isobutyraldehyde prices will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

The market for ortho xylene is temporarily stable this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 21st, the price of ortho xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on May 1st, which was 8300 yuan/ton. The industrial chain support is limited, and the ortho xylene market remained stable this week.

The price of mixed xylene has stopped falling and risen, and the cost support for adjacent xylene has increased this week; The price of phthalic anhydride has stopped rising and stabilized, while the demand support for ortho xylene has weakened. The price of ortho xylene has temporarily stabilized this week.

The price of raw material mixed with xylene has stopped falling and risen

According to the mixed xylene commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 21, the quoted price of mixed xylene was 7560 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34% from the price of mixed xylene on May 14, which was 7460 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, while the cost of mixed xylene has increased. Some mixed xylene equipment has maintenance plans, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decrease. The rise of mixed xylene provides significant support.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market tends to stabilize after rising

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of May 21, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 7950 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.75% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on May 14, which was 7737.50 yuan/ton; Compared to May 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride increased by 2.98% to 7720 yuan/ton. This week, the market for phthalic anhydride has rebounded. The cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has increased, sales are good, and the supply of ortho phthalic anhydride is tight. The market price of phthalic anhydride is strong, and downstream demand is strong. Purchasing high priced phthalic anhydride is cautious, and it is expected that the market will operate at a high level in the short term.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society’s neighboring xylene data, in terms of cost, the price of mixed xylene has stopped falling and risen, and the cost support for neighboring xylene has increased; In terms of supply and demand, the price of phthalic anhydride has stabilized after rising, while the supply of ortho benzene has tightened and the demand has stabilized. The support for the rise of ortho benzene still exists. Overall, the supply and demand support for rising costs has weakened, and there is still support for the future rise in the neighboring benzene market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have remained stable with a slight decline. On May 19th, the rare earth index was 404 points, a decrease of 59.88% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-24), and an increase of 49.08% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The prices of domestic neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have slightly declined, while the price trend of metallic praseodymium is temporarily stable. As of the 20th, the price of neodymium oxide was 407500 yuan/ton, with a mid month price drop of 0.61%; The price of neodymium metal was 517500 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.48% in the middle of the month; The price of praseodymium oxide was 410000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.61% in the middle of the month; The price of praseodymium metal is 537500 yuan/ton, with a stable price trend; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 500000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.99% in the middle of the month; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 400000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.84% in the middle of the month.

Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have slightly declined, and the supply in the domestic light rare earth market is relatively stable. However, some trading enterprises have offered to sell at a lower price, resulting in a slight decrease in the prices of mainstream rare earth products. There has been no significant improvement in the demand of downstream application enterprises. Magnetic material enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, but their purchasing sentiment has recently declined. Downstream enterprise raw material inventories have remained low for a long time, and the price of light rare earths is weak. The recent implementation of the policy of exchanging old for new equipment in China has boosted domestic demand for rare earths, limiting the decline in the light rare earth market.

According to statistics, in April 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 870000 and 850000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 35.9% and 33.5%, respectively; The sales of new energy vehicles account for 36% of the total sales of new vehicles. From January to April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.985 million and 2.94 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 30.3% and 32.3%, respectively; The sales of new energy vehicles account for 32.4% of the total sales of new vehicles. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, providing strong support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. The export volume of rare earths in April was 4566 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%; The total export volume of rare earths from January to April was 18049.5 tons, an increase of 10% year-on-year. The import volume of rare earths in April was 13145.9 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.5%; The total import volume of rare earths from January to April was 48842.5 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%, which brings certain benefits to the domestic rare earth market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the ordering and purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises is average, and the supply-demand game in the light rare earth market continues. It is expected that the light rare earth market will mainly fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

The domestic titanium tetrachloride market remained stable this week. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 17th, the benchmark price of titanium tetrachloride in Shengyishe was 10675.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.39% compared to the beginning of this month (10825.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The price of titanium concentrate is running at a high level, which puts pressure on the cost of high titanium slag enterprises. In addition, with the increase in electricity prices in Liaoning region, most production enterprises are losing money, and the market price of high titanium slag is under pressure and rising.

The downstream titanium dioxide market prices are weak and weak, and the current market trading situation is average.

Business Society’s titanium tetrachloride analyst believes that the high cost side of titanium tetrachloride is under pressure, and downstream titanium dioxide market prices are weak and weak, resulting in a cold trading atmosphere in the market. Recently, the titanium tetrachloride market has mainly stabilized and consolidated temporarily.