According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have remained stable with a slight decline. On May 19th, the rare earth index was 404 points, a decrease of 59.88% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-24), and an increase of 49.08% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The prices of domestic neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have slightly declined, while the price trend of metallic praseodymium is temporarily stable. As of the 20th, the price of neodymium oxide was 407500 yuan/ton, with a mid month price drop of 0.61%; The price of neodymium metal was 517500 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.48% in the middle of the month; The price of praseodymium oxide was 410000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.61% in the middle of the month; The price of praseodymium metal is 537500 yuan/ton, with a stable price trend; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 500000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.99% in the middle of the month; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 400000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.84% in the middle of the month.

Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have slightly declined, and the supply in the domestic light rare earth market is relatively stable. However, some trading enterprises have offered to sell at a lower price, resulting in a slight decrease in the prices of mainstream rare earth products. There has been no significant improvement in the demand of downstream application enterprises. Magnetic material enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, but their purchasing sentiment has recently declined. Downstream enterprise raw material inventories have remained low for a long time, and the price of light rare earths is weak. The recent implementation of the policy of exchanging old for new equipment in China has boosted domestic demand for rare earths, limiting the decline in the light rare earth market.

According to statistics, in April 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 870000 and 850000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 35.9% and 33.5%, respectively; The sales of new energy vehicles account for 36% of the total sales of new vehicles. From January to April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.985 million and 2.94 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 30.3% and 32.3%, respectively; The sales of new energy vehicles account for 32.4% of the total sales of new vehicles. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, providing strong support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. The export volume of rare earths in April was 4566 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%; The total export volume of rare earths from January to April was 18049.5 tons, an increase of 10% year-on-year. The import volume of rare earths in April was 13145.9 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.5%; The total import volume of rare earths from January to April was 48842.5 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%, which brings certain benefits to the domestic rare earth market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the ordering and purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises is average, and the supply-demand game in the light rare earth market continues. It is expected that the light rare earth market will mainly fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.