According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market will decline in April 2025, with an average price of 17220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16860 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 2.09%.
On April 29th, the Business Society Lead Index was 102.61, up 0.06 points from yesterday, down 23.43% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 37.49% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
In early April, due to fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment, lead prices showed a weak and volatile pattern. After the end of the Qingming Festival holiday, the direct impact of tariff policy adjustments led to a downward trend in lead prices during the review. With the gradual disappearance of macro disturbance factors and the marginal improvement of the fundamental supply-demand pattern, the center of gravity of lead prices gradually shifts upward, showing an overall strong oscillation operation.
Raw material end
Lead concentrate: The production capacity of mines in northern China is gradually being released, with abundant raw material inventory, improved profits from primary lead smelting, and high production enthusiasm.
Recycled lead raw materials: The amount of discarded lead-acid batteries has decreased, competition in recycling channels has intensified, and the price of discarded batteries is prone to rise but difficult to fall. Recycled lead enterprises may further reduce production due to cost inversion pressure.
demand side
Lead acid batteries: Downstream battery factories have started stocking up before the May Day holiday, but procurement has not yet been concentrated and increased, with demand mainly showing a mild recovery.
Export impact: The tariff policies imposed by China and the United States have increased the import cost of lead concentrate, while suppressing the export of lead-acid batteries, which has suppressed demand.
Prediction of future trends
In the short term, lead prices will show a fluctuating pattern of “upward pressure and downward support”. Upward drive: reduced production of recycled lead+release of pre holiday stocking demand+decrease in inventory. Downward risk: Increased primary lead production+macro risk aversion+export obstruction.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 27th, the price of lead 1 # was 16955 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.12% compared to the lead price of 16935 yuan/ton on April 21st.
This week’s market analysis
This week, lead prices have shown a narrow range of fluctuations, with prices running at low levels and moderately recovering. Against the backdrop of an overall balance between supply and demand, the market is achieving dynamic equilibrium through an orderly price adjustment mechanism, and there have been no abnormal fluctuations.
supply end
At present, the domestic primary lead smelting end maintains a high operating trend, and the industry’s comprehensive operating rate remains stable in the range of 70%. With the gradual resumption of smelting capacity that was previously affected by environmental inspections, the supply of primary lead in the market shows marginal incremental characteristics. However, regional raw material supply contradictions still exist: some smelters in the north are disrupted by the lead concentrate supply chain, and some suppliers are hindered by reduced mining production, cross-border transportation (such as delayed port clearance), or rising logistics costs, resulting in longer lead concentrate arrival cycles and insufficient arrival quantities, forcing enterprises to temporarily reduce production loads and constraining subsequent production plans.
The market for recycling waste batteries has shown a narrow range of price fluctuations this week. At the beginning of the month, driven by the expectation of a phased increase in lead prices, the reluctance of recyclers to sell has intensified, and the market circulation of goods has tightened. The willingness of holders of waste lead-acid batteries to ship has significantly increased, coupled with the release of demand for raw material replenishment by recycled lead enterprises, the market circulation of goods has gradually recovered, and the recycling prices have fallen accordingly. The supply-demand game has become more balanced..
demand side
April is the traditional off-season for consumption in the lead-acid battery industry, coupled with increased uncertainty in the global trade environment, resulting in a significant slowdown in the industry’s operating momentum. The demand side is showing a structural weakness trend: the automotive terminal market continues to be sluggish due to the “golden three silver four” trend, with retail sales of passenger cars declining year-on-year in the first two weeks of April, dragging down the development of lead-acid batteries. In terms of the battery swapping market, the stimulus effect of the policy of exchanging old for new electric bicycles is diminishing, coupled with the impact of the rainy season on terminal willingness to exchange, resulting in a decrease in orders for replacement batteries compared to the previous period, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance during the off-season.
comprehensive analysis
Without effective improvement in the macroeconomic situation, lead prices will find it difficult to obtain effective driving support from the demand side. Based on the current market supply-demand game pattern, it is expected that lead prices will continue to fluctuate in a weak range next week.

Market Overview: New production capacity is gradually being released, and the domestic acrylonitrile spot market continues to decline this week. Prices are gradually bottoming out, and the support for manufacturer maintenance is gradually weakening. As of April 25th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 8200-8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400-500 yuan/ton from last week. Short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 7900-8100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450-550 yuan/ton from last week.
New production capacity gradually releases, supply increases:
After a period of no new production capacity gap in 2024, the domestic acrylonitrile industry will usher in a new round of concentrated capacity expansion in 2025. Five enterprises will add or expand capacity during the year, with a total of 1.31 million tons/year of new production capacity planned, as shown in the table below.
As of April, 390000 tons of new acrylonitrile production capacity have been successfully put into operation this year. At present, the total production capacity of acrylonitrile in China has reached 4.789 million tons per year, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. It is expected that the total production capacity of acrylonitrile will reach 5.709 million tons per year by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 30%.
At present, with the gradual release of new production capacity, the downward trend of acrylonitrile market prices in China is also intensifying, especially in the Shandong market. The oversupply situation in the region is still prominent, and the spot negotiation price has gradually fallen to around 8000 yuan/ton and below. Due to the maintenance of Anqing Petrochemical’s 80000 ton production line and the low load operation of other large factories, the prices in the East China market are still relatively high compared to the Shandong market, but they are also showing a continuous downward trend.
Tariffs affecting domestic demand and shrinking export demand:
In addition to the increase in supply caused by the release of new production capacity, the demand for acrylonitrile has also shown signs of contraction. The imposition of tariffs by China and the United States has affected domestic demand and exports in some downstream areas of acrylonitrile, including ABS terminal home appliances, acrylic terminal textiles, nitrile latex, and glove products, thereby suppressing production, sales, and operating conditions in various industries and weakening the consumption of acrylonitrile. The operating rate of the acrylic fiber industry has dropped to around 50%, and the operating rate of the ABS industry has also dropped to below 70%. Only the operating rate of acrylamide remains at a normal level, but the industry also stated that its demand is lower than the same period in previous years, which may affect the sustainability of operating in the later stage.
The decline may gradually narrow and the price bottom may appear:
Although the May Day holiday is approaching, there is no obvious stocking atmosphere before the holiday. It is expected that the negative feedback on acrylonitrile demand caused by tariff policies and the economic and foreign trade situation will be further highlighted in the future. In addition, the new 400000 ton acrylonitrile plant of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical is also planned to be put into operation in May and June. With the further deepening of the supply-demand contradiction and the worsening of the loss situation in acrylonitrile production, some production enterprises will be forced to stop or reduce production, and the market decline may gradually narrow. Based on the fact that acrylonitrile prices have fallen to historically low levels, it is expected that the bottom of the market price may appear in May, but when the market rebounds or how long it will last at the bottom will still be determined by the degree of supply reduction.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 21st to 25th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 7930 yuan/ton to 7907 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.29% during the period, a month on month increase of 0.09%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.83%. The domestic BDO market is experiencing a narrow decline. The industry’s capacity utilization rate continues to decline, with supply side support and supply side contraction. Downstream maintenance requires immediate follow-up, but resistance to high prices still exists. The supply-demand game continues, and the market is operating in a stalemate.
On the supply side, some devices are still under maintenance, temporary parking, and defect elimination. The capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry has dropped to around 4.4%, and the market supply continues to decrease, with some favorable support from the supply side. At the same time, some devices have released May maintenance news, and the industry is under long-term loss pressure. The suppliers have a strong positive attitude towards supporting the market, which limits the market’s further downward exploration space. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market remains stable and watchful. Due to power maintenance and cost pressures, the supply in Shaanxi and Wumeng regions has significantly decreased. At the same time, there have been irregular power restrictions in Inner Mongolia, which have increased supply instability and accelerated the consumption of market inventory. The domestic methanol market is weak and volatile. As of 10:00 am on April 25th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2420 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are running weakly, and the cost of BDO is affected by unfavorable factors.
On the demand side, due to the average performance of terminal demand, the overall downstream production has slightly declined, and the cost of the industrial chain is under pressure, resulting in weak ability to accept high prices. This has led to inconsistent implementation of new cycle contract policies and sporadic small orders for spot goods. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: The supply-demand game will continue, and market fluctuations may be limited. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on consolidation and observation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of ethyl acetate in China was 5550.00 yuan/ton on April 23, unchanged from yesterday’s price. The cost support is average, downstream follow-up is needed, the trading atmosphere on the market is still acceptable, and the price of ethyl acetate is running steadily.
Market analysis: Recently, the ethyl acetate market has been weak and stable. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid has decreased, and the cost support is insufficient; On the demand side, downstream consumption of inventory is the main focus, with a small amount of procurement for essential needs being the main factor. Enterprises ship according to demand, and market trading enthusiasm is not high. The focus of ethyl acetate transactions is running steadily.
In the future, the trend of ethyl acetate raw materials is weak, with a negative impact on costs. On the supply side, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity has not changed much, and downstream demand is not following up well. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will be weak in the short term. Please pay attention to the changes in upstream market conditions and downstream follow-up situation.

1、 Market Overview
This week, the acrylic acid market showed a supply-demand game, and the overall operation remained stable. On the supply side, some manufacturers have adjusted their production plans to cope with changes in market demand; On the demand side, downstream users also exhibit a certain degree of flexibility in their procurement strategies.
As of April 22nd, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7566.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month. Compared to last week, the fluctuation is relatively small. Price fluctuations are mainly influenced by factors such as supply and demand, raw material prices, and market competition.
Market mentality: On the supplier side, some manufacturers are optimistic about the future market due to low inventory pressure; However, some manufacturers are cautious about the future market due to insufficient market demand. In terms of downstream users, procurement strategies exhibit a certain degree of flexibility due to factors such as procurement costs and market competition.
2、 Supply side:
This week, the prices of the main raw materials for acrylic acid have remained relatively stable with minimal fluctuations. As of April 22, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6728.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.26% compared to the beginning of this month (6745.75 yuan/ton)., The impact on the production cost of acrylic acid is limited.
3、 Demand side
Downstream demand: The overall downstream demand for acrylic acid remained stable this week, with some areas such as coatings and SAP industries showing certain growth potential. The paint industry has seen an increase in procurement volume due to the rebound of real estate completion; The SAP industry has experienced a decline in order volume due to the off-season demand for diapers.
Export situation: The export volume of acrylic acid remained stable this week, and some producers are expanding overseas markets to digest domestic overcapacity. In terms of export prices, affected by international market competition, the export price of acrylic acid has slightly decreased this week, but it still remains at a reasonable level.
4、 Future prospects
Looking ahead, the acrylic acid market will still face challenges from the supply-demand game. On the supply side, manufacturers need to continue optimizing production plans, reducing costs, and improving product quality; On the demand side, downstream users need to actively explore the market and increase product added value. Therefore, market participants need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes in order to develop more scientific and reasonable market strategies.
In summary, the acrylic acid market has maintained stable operation this week under the game of supply and demand. The future market will still face many challenges and uncertainties, requiring market participants to respond flexibly.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1410 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda at the end of the week was 1342 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.82% in price and a decrease of 41.27% compared to the same period last year. On April 17th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 89.07, a decrease of 1.46 points from yesterday, a decrease of 62.23% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 0.91% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1350-1450 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1400-1600 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand driven procurement, it is expected that weak operations will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week is 1400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.32% compared to the same period last year. Downstream buyers tend to purchase on demand.
Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, while the upstream raw material soda ash has been generally operating. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand, with average demand enthusiasm. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke has slightly declined this week. As of April 18th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 2367.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.35% from 2400.00 yuan/ton on April 14th.
The trend of crude oil prices has risen this week, and the US sanctions against Iran continue. Some oil producing countries have submitted compensation plans for overproduction, coupled with the weakening of the US dollar, international oil prices have risen.
This week, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries was average, and downstream purchases were mainly for essential needs. Market entry was cautious, and refinery shipments were hindered, resulting in an overall decline in petroleum coke prices. This week, the shipment of petroleum coke from the port was average, mainly consisting of medium and high sulfur petroleum coke. Traders were actively shipping, while downstream enterprises maintained their demand for essential purchases.

This week, the calcined coke market remained stable, with overall supply being sufficient. Coupled with limited downstream demand, the calcined coke market has fallen slightly.

Market forecast: Currently, the trading of petroleum coke market is average, downstream procurement of petroleum coke is cautious, refinery shipments are hindered, and support for the petroleum coke market is limited. It is expected that petroleum coke will mainly consolidate weakly in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on April 17th, the reference market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was 7812 yuan/ton, a decrease of 114 yuan/ton compared to April 13th (reference market price of cyclohexanone was 7926 yuan/ton).
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (4.13-4.17), the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province showed an overall downward trend. During the week, the focus of the cyclohexanone market in Shandong continued to shift downwards, with a decrease of about 100-200 yuan/ton. As of April 17th, the cyclohexanone market price in Shandong was around 7800-8000 yuan/ton.
Market influencing factors
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall positive support for the cyclohexanone market is insufficient. In terms of demand, downstream demand for cyclohexanone has performed poorly, with cautious new order transactions and hindered demand transmission. On the supply side, due to the drag of demand, the overall market supply is under pressure, and cyclohexanone factories and suppliers are offering discounts for shipments, revealing the contradiction between supply and demand on site.
In terms of cost: Recently, the raw material pure benzene market has fluctuated in the low range, providing loose cost support for cyclohexanone. As of April 16th, the reference price of pure benzene was 6405.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.82% compared to April 1st (6659.67 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall inquiry atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market in Shandong is relatively light, with cautious follow-up of downstream new orders and limited confidence among industry players. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly be weak and stable, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline in the first half of April. On April 1st, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 7766 yuan/ton. On April 16th, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.72% in price.
Negative leads to a decline in the adipic acid market
In the first half of April, the price of pure benzene, a raw material for adipic acid, fluctuated upwards, while the market for cyclohexanone raw material fell weakly. The demand in the terminal industry was sluggish, and the operating rate of adipic acid market manufacturers was high. Supply pressure continued, and shipping prices fell weakly. Market transactions were average, and sales were flat. The average market price of adipic acid has dropped to 7300-7400 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of about 200-300 yuan/ton.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in April, terminal demand may improve, supply pressure may decrease, and the domestic adipic acid market may see an increase.